African Conflict Prevention Programme (ACPP) Pretoria

Transcription

1 African Conflict Prevention Programme (ACPP) Pretoria ACPP Daily Briefings Week 2 The ACPP Daily Briefings are held weekday mornings in the ACPP Pretoria s Situation Room and the Briefing Notes are the minutes of this meeting during which each regional expert of the Programme reports on the latest human security developments in his/her region, followed by general discussions around the table. An intern then compiles a summary of the meeting, which is reviewed by the respective researchers, and a senior researcher edits the report and provides quality control before returning it to the intern to prepare it for dispatch to the mailing list to which you have subscribed. ACPP-Pretoria research team Dr Issaka K. Souaré (N. Africa) Dr David Zounmenou (W. Africa) Mr Andrew Atta-Assamoah (E. Africa & the Horn) Ms Dimpho Motsamai (S. Africa) Dr Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa (S. Africa) Ms Refiloe Joala (Intern) Ms Naomi Kok (Intern) Thursday, 26 January 2012 CONTENTS Africa: African Union: An analysis of the dynamics in the renewal of the AU commission East and the Horn of Africa: South Sudan: Responses to Juba s Decision to Shut Down Oil Production Southern Africa: Zimbabwe: Civil servants strike continues as wage talks reach an impasse Today s Briefings Compilation Ms Refiloe Joala & Ms Naomi Kok Editor Dr Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa

2 Summary of Briefings Africa: African Union: An analysis of the dynamics in the renewal of the AU commission Remark: The notes related this theme are based on contributions by Dr Jide Okeke and Dr Solomon Ayele Dersso, respectively from the ACPP and the Security Council Report programmes at the ISS Addis Ababa office. The ongoing 18 th Summit of the African Union (AU) seeks to consider, as its main theme, the issues of regional trade and ways of enhancing regional integration on the continent. The AU has great plans for the current summit. These plans include establishing continental free trade by 2017, creating a monitoring framework to track progress, coming to an agreement on how to resolve disputes and conflict resolution in certain parts of the continent, and establishing cooperation between the AU and REC s as well as enacting free movement between borders in an effort to promote economic growth and sustainable development. But given the various conflict spots and political crises on the continent, issues of peace and security cannot be set aside. However, the issue of elections of new commissioners, including the chairperson of the AU Commission, is likely to occupy a significant portion of the deliberations, hence the focus of these notes on this specific issue. According to various reports, there are only two contenders for the post, namely the incumbent Jean Ping, and the current South African minister of Internal Affairs (also former foreign affairs minister), Dr Nkosazana- Dlamini Zuma. There seems to be a tight race between the two. But a number of dynamics could paly out in favour or against one of them. One such dynamics regarding the South African candidate is the perceptions that some countries may have about Pretoria regarding its handling of the Ivorian and Libyan affairs, particularly the former. It would appear that many West African countries, not least Nigeria, were disappointed by Pretoria s apparent support for the former Ivorian leader, Laurent Gbagbo, until late in the post- electoral crisis between him and the internationally- recognised winner of the pool, the current president, Alassane Outtarra. There seems also to be a divide on the continent regarding the Francophone/Anglophone loyalties. Jean Ping speaks both English and French and is Francophone, while Dr Zuma is not thought to speak French. But while these might play against the lady, many seem disappointed with Ping with regard to his style of leadership, that is seen by some is timide, at least in comparison to his predecessor, the former Malian president, Alpha Oumar Konare. Apart from her experience on African issues and reported managerial skills, the AU requirement for gender balance may also play in Zuma s favour. Given the strong campaign and lobby by both candidates, there is thus strong chance that neither of the two may secure the two- third majority required to win in the election. In the event that neither of the two candidates secures the required majority, there are five possible scenarios: 1. In accordance with Rule 42 of the Rules of Procedure of the Assembly of the AU, there will be a second and third round of elections until one of the two candidates gets the required two- third of the votes. 2. The election could be suspended until a fresh election from new candidates is held during the next election. If, after the third round, neither of the two contenders gets the ACPP Daily Briefing, Thursday, 26 January

3 required majority, the candidate with fewer votes will withdraw and the assembly will vote on the remaining candidate. If the votes in favour of the candidate do not constitute the two- thirds majority, the Chairperson of the Assembly would suspend the elections, in which instance the Deputy Chairperson shall takeover as interim Chairperson. 3. One of the candidates may withdraw from the election. 4. Upon the request of states members of the Assembly, the election could be postponed until the next summit. 5. A member of the assembly could propose a compromise and agreement could be reached allowing the incumbent to finish another term and guaranteeing the contender to be the next Chairperson. East and Horn of Africa: South Sudan: Responses to Juba s Decision to Shut Down Oil Production It has been about a week since heated exchanges of accusations between Khartoum and Juba regarding the price of the use of the oil infrastructure in Sudan led to a decision by Juba to shut down oil production and thereby the use of the oil infrastructure. President Salva Kiir of South Sudan has communicated Juba s reasons for the decision to shutdown production. First President Kiir argues that Juba exhausted all peaceful means of reaching an agreement with Sudan. Second, Sudan s confiscation of the oil meant that the use of the infrastructure was not going to benefit the South. Kiir finally argues that South Sudan wants to avoid setting precedence in the region by paying such a high price for the use of oil infrastructure. The decision to shut down production has, meanwhile, received a great deal of support from various groups and people in Juba, Jonglei, Western Equatorial, and Unity State. Vice President Riek Machar has also supported the move arguing that it is indicative of the independence of the infant country. President Kirr has directed the Ministry of Finance to initiate moves for sourcing alternative funding for the country whilst oil production stops. President Kiir indicates that Juba will run on national financial reserves in the meantime. The timing of the President s directive, however, raises important questions as to whether such a crucial directive should not have been given before halting production of such a crucial source of revenue for the new country. The popularity of the directive is likely to reduce public pressure on the government to deliver on its obligations to the people in the short- to- medium- term. It, however, remains to be seen how far the masses will be able to cope with the economic implications that may follow the shutdown. Meanwhile, Sudan has argued that Juba stands to suffer more from the situation. Khartoum says it has put in place modalities to mitigate the economic implications of the oil shutdown adding that the emerging support for Juba is concocted. If this initial reaction indeed represents Khartoum s official position, it raises suspicions about Sudan s pricing at the negotiation table. Some argue that Khartoum s hard stance has been calculated to ensure the shutdown results in the economic suffocation of Juba. The counter- factual that Khartoum is genuinely searching for a source of funding for its economy may also be noteworthy. In the midst of the oil crisis, however, Juba s search for alternative infrastructure has led to the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between South Sudan and Kenya over the construction of pipelines from the oil fields to the Lamu in Kenya. The MOU was signed in a high profile ceremony witnessed by President Kiir and Vice President Machar of South Sudan and Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetangula of Kenya. ACPP Daily Briefing, Thursday, 26 January

4 While the construction of the alternative pipelines presents a possible solution, it is not without its challenges. The estimated 11- month period of constructing the pipeline is likely to be a very trying time for South Sudan, especially if alternative sources of funding are not quickly arranged. In addition, there are security concerns along the route in which the pipeline will be built. Armed elements could possibly subvert the project, posing direct threats to destroy the pipeline itself. Moreover, the economic viability of the project, which may amount to more than $1 billion, is questionable. Meanwhile, the AU has called on the two Sudans to return to the negotiation table and to cease unilateral decisions in order to prevent an escalation of the situation. Southern Africa: Zimbabwe: Civil servants strike continues as wage talks reach an impasse Negotiations between the Government of Zimbabwe and national public service workers unions to mitigate a five- day strike by civil servants that began on Monday, 12 January, are at an impasse. On Wednesday, 25 January, Apex Council - the worker s umbrella union - rejected the government s ambiguous offer to spend only $240 million more on its payroll, since a breakdown of this figure translated to an average increase of $7 per month for the lowest paid worker, which fell far lower than the public service worker s demands. The unions want across- the- board pay rises, including a poverty datum line linked raise from $200 to $538 a month for the lowest- paid government workers, medical insurance and an allowance for workers based in rural areas. However, Finance Minister Tendai Biti has repeatedly insisted that the government cannot afford such salary hikes at a time when the government s payroll alone already gobbles more than 60 per cent of total collected revenue. Indeed, a recent survey conducted by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund revealed that Zimbabwe had one of the highest ratios of civil servants to revenue generation. Only Swaziland, Lesotho and South Africa had higher ratios. In Zimbabwe s highly polarised political environment the civil service strike was turned into a political battleground with the parties in Zimbabwe s tenuous coalition government trading accusations of being unsympathetic to the plight of the workers. President Robert Mugabe of the Zimbabwe African National Union- Patriotic Front (ZANU- PF) has accused Finance Minister Biti of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC- T) of deliberately sabotaging the government by refusing the increases. The MDC charged that the funds required to foot the salary rise could possibly be raised if several measures were taken. These include the remittance of diamond revenues by the ZANU- PF controlled Mines Ministry to the national treasury rather than diversion for personal and political ends; weeding out about ghost workers believed to be mainly ZANU- PF activists - from the government payroll; and ensuring that earnings from millions of dollars in police coffers earned through fines are instead conveyed to state coffers. Notwithstanding the forgoing, and with the civil servants having resolved to go back to the trenches, it is unlikely that the strike action will either reach the record lows of 2007 when teacher strikes left only 50 days of classes in the whole year or degenerate into violent confrontations with the government. While the industrial action picked up momentum after a slow start with public schools in the capital, Harare, largely being deserted, government departments have continued to work as usual. The unions have blamed intimidation by bosses for the government employees low turnout. However, it is conceivable that workers would out of desperation opt to work for a pittance rather than stay at home. ACPP Daily Briefing, Thursday, 26 January

5 End ACPP Daily Briefing, Thursday, 26 January