DR Opportunities in Residential Lighting and Plug Load Phase 1

Transcription

1 DR Opportunities in Residential Lighting and Plug Load Phase 1 Report Prepared by: Design and Engineering Services Customer Service Business Unit Southern California Edison December 2011

2 Acknowledgements Southern California Edison s (SCE s) (D&ES) group is responsible for this project in collaboration with the Tariff Program & Services (TP&S) group. It was developed as part of SCE s Demand Response, Emerging Markets and Technology Program under internal project number. D&ES project manager Carlos Haiad conducted this project with overall guidance and management from Carl Besaw of TP&S. For more information on this project, contact carlos.haiad@sce.com. Disclaimer This report was prepared by Southern California Edison (SCE) and funded by California utility customers under the auspices of the California Public Utilities Commission. Reproduction or distribution of the whole or any part of the contents of this document without the express written permission of SCE is prohibited. This work was performed with reasonable care and in accordance with professional standards. However, neither SCE nor any entity performing the work pursuant to SCE s authority make any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, with regard to this report, the merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose of the results of the work, or any analyses, or conclusions contained in this report. The results reflected in the work are generally representative of operating conditions; however, the results in any other situation may vary depending upon particular operating conditions. Southern California Edison December 2011

3 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS FERC FRCC GWh HAN IHD IOU kwh MRO MW NPPC PCT PHEV RASS RECS RFC SCE SERC SPP TOU TP&S TRE WECC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Gigawatt-hour Home Area Network In-Home Display Invertor Owned Utility Kilowatt-hour Midwest Reliability Organization Megawatt Northeast Power Coordinating Council Programmable Communicating Thermostat Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Residential Appliance Saturation Survey Residential Energy Consumption Survey ReliabilityFirst Corporation Southern California Edison SERC Reliability Corporation Southwest Power Pool Time of Use Tariff Program & Services Texas Reliability Entity Western Electricity Coordinating Council Southern California Edison Page i

4 FIGURES Figure 1. Average Electricity Consumption by End-Use for California Homes... 4 Figure 2. Load Shape of Residential Lighting Fixtures Averaged Across CA... 8 Figure 3. Plug Load Power Consumption by Product Family (Weekday)... 9 Figure 4. Housing Growth Rate by Forecast Climate Zone (2009) Figure 6. Residential Sector Electric Energy Efficiency Savings Figure 7. Residential Sector Electric DR Peak Savings Figure 8. Percent of Residential Customers Who Will Be engaged With DR Figure 9. California Electricity Consumption by Sector Figure 10. Figure 11. Figure 12. Total Technical Gross Energy Savings by Measure for Existing Residential Buildings Electric UECs and Appliance Saturation Summaries by Electric Utility (kwh) (2009) Electric UECs for Newer and Older Dwellings by Dwelling Type (kwh) (2009) TABLES Table 1. Table 2. Table 3. Table 4. Table 5. Table 6. Residential Per-Household End-Use Consumption by Utility (kwh)... 5 Estimate of Total Residential End-Use Consumption by Utility (GWh)... 5 Reported potential peak load reduction by customer class (MW)... 6 Reported potential peak load reduction in MW by region and customer class (2010)... 7 Reported Potential and Actual Peak Load Reduction by Region in 2010 (MW)... 7 Technical Gross Potential by End-Use and Utility for Existing Residential Buildings Southern California Edison Page ii

5 CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS I FIGURES II TABLES II CONTENTS III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 2 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE 3 National Residential Energy Use... 3 California Residential Energy Use... 4 IOU Residential Energy Use... 4 SCE Residential Energy Use... 5 RESIDENTIAL DEMAND PROFILE 6 National Demand Profile... 6 California Demand Profile... 7 IOU Residential Demand Profile... 8 SCE Residential Demand Profile... 9 EXISTING DEMAND RESPONSE TECHNOLOGY 10 Hardware Protocols RESIDENTIAL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS 12 MARKET BARRIERS 14 FINDINGS 15 RECOMMENDATIONS 16 APPENDIX A EE AND DR SAVINGS POTENTIAL 18 APPENDIX B EE POTENTIAL STUDY CHARTS 20 APPENDIX C RASS DATA 21 REFERENCES 23 Southern California Edison Page iii

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The study investigates the current state of the residential sector through a literature search and review. The study s Phase 1 evaluated available literature to determine if residential lighting and plug loads coincide with projected peak demand, and to determine the potential for customer acceptance of load reduction during peak demand. Extensive research was conducted through the review of news publications, research documents, surveys, and demand response (DR) case studies currently available. This research helped to understand and evaluate current information on residential DR for lighting and plug load applications. Within Southern California Edison s (SCE s) territory, 27% of the 2016 projected energy consumption is attributed to lighting use in the residential sector. As energy efficiency awareness grows, the residential sector is beginning to adopt technologies needed for a successful roll-out of residential DR programs. Companies are poised to benefit from the fast-growing DR services market in North America, which Pike Research forecasts will grow by more than 38% each year over the next five years. Based on the literature review conducted in this study, a Phase 2 of the project would be pending the analysis of a forthcoming California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) report on residential lighting (Upstream Lighting Program Evaluation report), which will provide time of use data on residential lighting, which will help determine if and when the lighting load growth will lead to a peak demand coinciding or exceeding SCE generation. If the result of the analysis of this forthcoming CPUC data shows a peak demand impact, then Phase 2 of the project consisting of the analysis of the existing infrastructure and a residential customer survey is recommended. Southern California Edison Page 1

7 INTRODUCTION This project sets out to establish the demand response (DR) potential for lighting and plug loads in the residential sector. To establish this potential the project was divided into two main phases. Phase 1, the subject of this report, incorporates a literature review of existing studies addressing DR acceptance for lighting and plug loads in the residential sector and the development of a methodology to supplement markets areas that require further evaluation. Phase 2, pending the outcome of Phase 1, will include the design, distribution, and analysis of a residential customer survey and a current market assessment to identify existing infrastructures within the residential sector that supports DR integration. The lighting and plug loads in the residential sector are defined for the purpose of this report as: Lighting Load stationary light sources typically controlled with a wall switch. Plug Load any device receiving power from an alternating current wall outlet. Plug loads are the fastest-growing energy load in the residential sector. 1 The results of the literature review, as well as recommended next steps are included in this report. Southern California Edison Page 2

8 RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE NATIONAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE The 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) collected data on home energy consumption characteristics from over 12,000 U.S. households, statistically selected to represent the million housing units that serve as primary residences nationwide. How consumers use energy in their homes has changed substantially over the past three decades. Improved building construction practices have created higher performing homes, reducing the load served by heating and cooling equipment to maintain comfort. While efficiency gains in heating and cooling equipment, as well as appliances, have reduced the amount of energy required to perform the same functions as in old homes. However, at the same time the number of energyconsuming devices in these homes has increased when compared to 30 years ago. In particular, the type and number of home electronics has increased significantly. For example, at the national level, personal computing products show an increase in use from the 2005 RECS to the 2009 RECS. 2 This increase can be seen in both the number of homes with computers and the number of computers per home: Over three-fourths of U.S. households have a computer, an increase of approximately 10% since the 2005 RECS. Thirty-nine million homes (over one-third of U.S. households) have at least two computers, an increase of 12% since the 2005 RECS. Southern California Edison Page 3

9 CALIFORNIA RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE According to the 2009 Residential Appliance Saturation Survey (RASS) the average annual electricity consumption is 6,296 kilowatt-hours (kwh) per household in a California home. 3 This was an increase of approximately 6% compared to the 5,914 kwh per household reported in the 2003 RASS. 4 A breakdown of the energy consumption from the 2009 survey is shown in Figure 1. 5 Miscellaneous 11% Water Heating 3% Space Heating 2% Laundry 4% Dishwasher and Cooking 4% Lighting (Estimated) 22% Pools and Spas 7% Air Conditioning 7% TV, PC and Office Equipment 20% Refrigerators and Freezers 20% FIGURE 1. AVERAGE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY END-USE FOR CALIFORNIA HOMES The 2009 RASS estimates total lighting, including interior and exterior, to contribute 22% of the electricity consumption, as shown in Figure 1. Plug loads, defined as televisions, personal computers, and office equipment contributed 20% of the typical Californian household s electricity consumption. This was a 5% increase in plug load electricity consumption compared to the results of the 2003 RASS. 6 IOU RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE Table 1 shows the California residential energy use, split into the three investorowned utility (IOU) territories as identified in the 2006 Energy Efficiency Potential Study. 7 Table 1 summarizes the residential end-use consumption (kwh) on a per household basis in the SCE, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), and San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E) service territories in 2004, The variations seen across IOU service territories are likely a result of climate impacts, as miscellaneous is relatively constant across. The miscellaneous end-use shown includes plug load, refrigeration, dryers, cooking, and pools and spas. Southern California Edison Page 4

10 TABLE 1. RESIDENTIAL PER-HOUSEHOLD END-USE CONSUMPTION BY UTILITY (KWH) END-USE GROUPING PG&E SCE SDG&E HVAC Water Heating Lighting 1,627 1,681 1,542 Miscellaneous 3,479 3,201 3,236 Total per Household 6,285 6,127 5,458 The 2006 Energy Efficiency Potential Study also included projections for residential sector energy consumption in These projections are shown in Table 2 (additional details can be found in Appendix B). Estimates use the per-household energy consumption, saturation data, and housing forecasts to rough project 2016 end-use consumption. The estimates do not incorporate the effects of income growth, energy price changes, or energy efficiency programs initiated during (See Appendix C). TABLE 2. ESTIMATE OF TOTAL RESIDENTIAL END-USE CONSUMPTION BY UTILITY (GWH) END-USE GROUPING PG&E SCE SDG&E HVAC 3,804 3, Water Heating 1,672 1, Lighting 7,557 6,770 1,802 Miscellaneous 16,157 12,888 3,783 Total Residential Consumption 29,190 24,669 6,379 SCE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY USE As shown in Table 1, lighting and miscellaneous represent nearly 80% of energy consumption within homes in SCE s service territory. Of this, lighting is 27% and plug load, which is part of miscellaneous in Table 1, is 52% of the total residential energy consumption. The lighting and plug load levels within current homes indicates a tremendous savings opportunity if these loads can be influenced by SCE programs. It was estimated that in 2016, the total load of residential lighting within SCE s service territory would be 6,770 gigawatt-hours (GWh), and miscellaneous would be 12,888 GWh, as shown in Table 2. As with current homes, these two loads represent a significant portion of the total energy consumed, continuing to be nearly 80% of the total energy consumption. As these numbers do not take into account the impacts of various factors, this can be understood as a business-as-usual figure, which further highlights the need to influence residential customers use of lighting and plug loads. Southern California Edison Page 5

11 RESIDENTIAL DEMAND PROFILE NATIONAL DEMAND PROFILE The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reports the national potential peak load reduction per customer class for the years 2006, 2008, and 2010 shown in Table 3. 9 From 2006 to 2010, there has been a 24% increase in total potential peak load reduction in the residential sector. TABLE 3. REPORTED POTENTIAL PEAK LOAD REDUCTION BY CUSTOMER CLASS (MW) SOURCE COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL WHOLESALE OTHER TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 2006 FERC 14,362 5,803 8, , FERC 17,434 6,056 12,656 1,190 37, FERC 21,405 7,189 22,884 1,584 53,062 Reported customer classes in Table 3 include Commercial & Industrial, Residential Wholesale and Other. Customer classes are defined by FERC study as follows: Commercial & Industrial: Belonging to either of the energy-consuming sectors that consist of (a) a broad range of facility types including office buildings, retail establishments, hospitals, universities, the facilities of federal, state, and local governments and nonprofit organizations, institutional living quarters, mastermetered apartment buildings, and homes on military bases; and (b) manufacturing facilities and equipment used for producing, processing, or assembling goods and encompassing the following types of activities: manufacturing; processing; agriculture, forestry and fisheries; mining; and construction. Also, a business labeled as industrial by the North American Industry Classification System or by the energy provider on the basis of energy demand or annual usage exceeding some specified limit set by the energy provider. Residential: The energy-consuming sector consisting of private households. Common uses of energy associated with this sector include space heating, water heating, air conditioning, lighting, refrigeration, cooking, and running a variety of other electric-powered devices. The residential sector excludes institutional living quarters. This sector excludes deliveries or sales to master-metered apartment buildings or homes on military bases (these buildings or homes are included in the Commercial sector). Wholesale: An entity that purchases electric energy for resale. Other: Group of customers that does not fall into previous categories, such as transportation or agricultural. The growing plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market will also influence the growth of residential load going forward. A study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory showed that large plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) penetration would place increased pressure on peaking units with an uncontrolled charging strategy. The study focused on the development of a DR model for residential Southern California Edison Page 6

12 customers with PHEV penetration. The model reflects customer behaviors in response to variable electricity prices based on time of use (TOU). 10 Per the Frost and Sullivan national survey, close to 45% of residents questioned reported an increase in their electricity bill due to an increase in electricity consumption. Close to 60% of residential energy consumers were willing to change their electricity use to save money, though many sought savings in return for signing on to a DR program. Frost & Sullivan has stated, "Customer awareness of smart grids appears moderately high, though awareness does not likely stem from the direct efforts of electric utility companies. Only 16% of all surveyed residential electric customers are aware of any effort by their electric utility company to introduce smart grid technology into their community." 11 CALIFORNIA DEMAND PROFILE Table 4 breaks the national 2010 potential peak load reduction out by sector region, with California s contribution falling under the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Other national regions reported in Table 4 include: Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (FRCC), Midwest Reliability Organization (MRO), Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC), SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and Texas Reliability Entity (TRE). 9 TABLE 4. REPORTED POTENTIAL PEAK LOAD REDUCTION IN MW BY REGION AND CUSTOMER CLASS (2010) SOURCE COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL WHOLESALE OTHER TOTAL INDUSTRIAL TRE , ,510 FRCC 1,310 1, ,158 MRO 3,320 1,806 4, ,485 NPCC 1, , ,485 RFC 5,267 1,139 9, ,864 SERC 6, , ,154 SPP 1, , ,126 WECC 2,062 1, ,487 Other TOTAL 21,405 7,189 22,884 1,584 53,062 Table 5 compares the 2010 potential versus actual national peak load reduction by total (commercial, industrial, residential, wholesale and other), with California s contribution falling under the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). 9 TABLE 5. REPORTED POTENTIAL AND ACTUAL PEAK LOAD REDUCTION BY REGION IN 2010 (MW) REGION POTENTIAL PEAK REDUCTION ACTUAL PEAK REDUCTION TRE 1, FRCC 3, MRO 9,485 2,462 NPCC 6,228 2,497 Southern California Edison Page 7

13 REGION POTENTIAL PEAK REDUCTION ACTUAL PEAK REDUCTION RFC 15,864 2,051 SERC 9,154 3,086 SPP 3,126 1,466 WECC 4,487 2,667 Other TOTAL 53,062 15,980 IOU RESIDENTIAL DEMAND PROFILE Studies of DR market potential, or sheddable load expected, are based on two principle factors: participation and response. Participation is the amount of customers that policymakers can expect to enroll by offering DR opportunities and/or incentives. Participation refers to the number of customers enrolling in programs, or taking service on a dynamic pricing tariff. Response refers to the quantity of load reduction triggered at times of high prices, or when curtailment incentives are offered. Figure 2 shows the residential lighting time-of-use demand profile from 1999 averaged across CA. Major peak use at time data was gathered was 8 PM in the summer and 7 PM in the winter, with a secondary peak at 7 AM in the summer and 8 AM in the winter. 12 FIGURE 2. LOAD SHAPE OF RESIDENTIAL LIGHTING FIXTURES AVERAGED ACROSS CA Figure 3 shows the residential plug-load time-of-use demand profile from 2006 with data collected from a California home for a typical weekday. Major peak use at the time the data was gathered was approximately 8 PM. 13 Southern California Edison Page 8

14 FIGURE 3. PLUG LOAD POWER CONSUMPTION BY PRODUCT FAMILY (WEEKDAY) Table 6 identifies the technical gross potential for demand savings by IOU region in 2016 achievable through energy efficiency. Technical potential refers to the savings potential that would be captured if all energy efficiency measures were installed in all feasible applications. The gross technical potential for demand savings reported below is not correlated to peak use for residential lighting and plug loads, thus it does not represent peak demand savings potential, simply demand savings potential. TABLE 6. TECHNICAL GROSS POTENTIAL BY END-USE AND UTILITY FOR EXISTING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS 2016 PG&E SCE SDG&E TOTAL END-USE GWH MW GWH MW GWH MW GWH MW HVAC 2,128 1,516 2,419 1, ,990 3,096 Lighting 5, , , ,330 1,169 Miscellaneous 3, , ,880 1,039 Water Heating Total 11,969 2,579 11,040 2,217 2, ,807 5,365 SCE RESIDENTIAL DEMAND PROFILE Looking at existing energy efficiency incentive programs, end-use demand savings from existing homes in SCE s service territory indicates an estimated demand savings potential of 481 megawatt (MW) under current incentives for lighting, shown in Table 6. Lighting, followed closely by miscellaneous demand at 447 MW, is the largest contributor to potential demand savings under the current incentives scenario per the California Energy Efficiency Potential Study. Again, this study did not provide an indication of how well these demand savings values correlate with peak demand savings. Southern California Edison Page 9

15 EXISTING DEMAND RESPONSE TECHNOLOGY A literature review was performed with the intent of identifying existing key features and technologies for each link in the residential DR chain; including hardware and communication protocols. HARDWARE Examples of existing DR-enabling devices for the residential sector are listed below: Programmable Communicating Thermostat (PCT) - communicates to the Smart Meter via ZigBee or to a gateway using a variety of communication protocols In Home Display (IHD) - communicates to the Smart Meter via ZigBee, or to a gateway using a variety of communication protocols, and displays current price and current demand, as well as customers daily, weekly, and monthly energy use and dollars spent on energy Energy Information Portals provide description/definition of these devices PROTOCOLS There are various communication protocols that currently exist, including; ZigBee, wi-fi, and Z-wave. Zigbee is currently leading the wireless standard and has been selected by SCE as the preferred protocol. Additionally, the National Institute of Standards and Technology is leading an effort to ensure interoperability between the various protocols. An energy protocol using ZigBee is being developed specifically to link smart meters and homes, which would make it the preferred technology choice for in-home energy management. (Southern California Edison, along with fellow investor-owned utilities Pacific Gas & Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric have chosen ZigBee as their preferred technology for linking smart meters to homes.) The Brattle Group conducted a survey of leading energy experts in the U.S. That survey s findings were published in November 2011 in a report entitled Energy Efficiency and Demand Response in It noted that some 22 million smart meters have been deployed in the U.S., and the evolving consensus indicates that number will rise three-fold in the next five years (see Appendix A). Overall, the experts surveyed expect the residential sector to realize electric savings of 10 12% by Those same experts anticipate that DR will become a valuable resource for managing peak demand as they expect participation rates to increase significantly over the next decade. 14 Pike Research forecasts the DR services market in North America will grow by more than 38% each year over the next five years, and companies are poised to benefit from this fastgrowing market. With support from smart appliances, smart meters, and smart customers willing to make changes in order to save money, residential DR programs have the potential to significantly impact residential energy consumption and reduce peak loads. Still, given the difficulty and complexity of this task, the industry needs to focus on lowering barriers to participation, educating customers to help them be successful with new pricing plans, developing a rate design based on time-of-use (TOU) or similar data and looking at ways to improve response without inconveniencing customers. Developing and implementing good tools is a first step, Southern California Edison Page 10

16 but customers will need education to learn how to use the tools and maximize potential customer benefits. A customer education plan is essential to engage customers and ensure the success of residential DR programs. Southern California Edison Page 11

17 RESIDENTIAL MARKET GROWTH TRENDS In addition to the electricity consumption in households increasing from 2003 to 2009 per RASS survey results, new construction offers additional market growth that is poised for immediate adoption of new technologies. Increases in both electricity consumption and new home customers align with the growth estimation in the residential sector and the increased opportunity for energy savings. Figure 4 shows the housing growth rate by forecast climate zone as the percentage of new dwellings within the total housing population in each climate zone over the last year. Dwellings built in 2001 and after are considered new dwellings in the 2009 RASS. 4 Percent of New Homes by Climate Zone 21% 18% 14% 15% 12% 8% 6% 6% 5% 4% 2% 8% FIGURE 4. HOUSING GROWTH RATE BY FORECAST CLIMATE ZONE (2009) Per the 2009 RASS survey results, the residential sector s historical uptake of new plug loads is increasing. Figure 5 shows the penetration of various types of entertainment and home office equipment and services as of In general, all of the technologies listed increased in popularity compared to the 2003 RASS, except for internet via phone. 3 Southern California Edison Page 12

18 Percent Households with Equipment Cable Box with DVR Cable/Satellite TV Cell Phones Desktop Computers Gaming Systems Home Network Home Office Equipment Internet via DSL/Cable Internet via Phone Laptop Computers LCD TV (36" or larger) Plasma TV Stand Alone DVR Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) 11% 14% 12% 13% 34% 29% 33% 31% 54% 60% 67% 67% 74% 85% FIGURE 5. PENETRATION OF TECHNOLOGY EQUIPMENT (2009) Penetration of advanced metering technologies has continually increased over the past three years. For example, in 2010, advanced metering penetration for residential customers increased nearly 9% across the United States. 6 Residential lighting is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 7% from 2010 to 2016, and an additional 4% from 2016 to Approximately 70% of buildings are currently residential, representing a huge number of lighting installation areas and making residential lighting the largest application overall with a market share of approximately 40%. 15 Southern California Edison Page 13

19 MARKET BARRIERS The Frost and Sullivan survey, Smart Grid Market A Customer Perspective on Demand Response, indicates most consumers are interested in an automated system to help in reducing their energy consumption. 11 At the residential level, a set-it-and-forget-it technology provides the needed infrastructure for residential customers to easily and automatically adjust their energy use. In his keynote speech at Grid Week 2009, U.S. Secretary of Energy, Steven Chu, declared consumers readiness to engage with Smart Grid technology: Equipped with rich, useful information, consumers can help manage load onpeak to save money and energy for themselves, and, ultimately, all of us. 16 The Frost and Sullivan survey noted that in 59% of the 600 U.S. residential homes surveyed, respondents were either likely or somewhat likely to adopt smart appliances. However, 75% planned to wait until their appliances came due for replacement, rather than adopting smart appliances right away. Deploying effective DR technologies requires ease of implementation, accuracy, and transparency. Ease of implementation involves choosing a method for evaluating individual customer DR. Accuracy requires an approach that must be sufficiently rich to capture the kilowatt (kw) variance due to the effects of time-of-day, day-of-week, and month-of-year. Constraining responses to be time insensitive likely introduces estimation bias, and effectively estimating a customer s baseline electricity use is a primary issue in the measurement and verification of DR. 17 Finally, producing estimates that are transparent in other words, easy to understand and verify is critical to achieving success with DR programs. 18 Southern California Edison Page 14

20 FINDINGS How consumers use energy in their homes has changed substantially over the past three decades. Over this period, U.S. homes on average have become larger, and most contain more energy-consuming devices such as home electronics. Per capita, and specifically in the residential sector, energy consumption has steadily increased nationally. Within the SCE residential territory today, a typical household attributes 27% of its energy use to lighting, and another 52% to plug loads, or miscellaneous loads. Based on data from 1999, peak lighting load occurs at 8 PM, with a secondary peak at 7 AM. Based on data from 2006, peak plug load occurs at 8 PM. The projected potential demand savings from energy efficiency in the residential sector, 481 MW under current incentives for lighting and 447 MW for miscellaneous from 2004 to 2016, highlight the tremendous potential for savings in the residential sector. The projected increase in customer DR program participation shown the Frost and Sullivan survey underscores the opportunity for residential DR programs. The Frost and Sullivan survey, also indicates the need to further engage residential customers to introduce them to smart grid technologies and DR programs. Southern California Edison Page 15

21 RECOMMENDATIONS The first two tasks of this project entailed evaluating available literature to determine if residential lighting and plug loads coincide with projected peak demand, and to determine the potential for customer acceptance of load reduction during peak demand. Extensive research was conducted through the review of news publications, research documents, surveys, and DR case studies available at the time of this study. This research helped to evaluate and better understand the current information on residential DR for lighting and plug load applications. The outcome of the literature review resulted in the collection of current energy use and load data for California and SCE service territory; as well as projected growth in these areas. An updated analysis containing the time-of-use profile for customer lighting use will be necessary to inform the design of residential DR programs. Analysis of the updated lighting demand profile compared to the 1999 TOU profile will quantify the shift in lighting TOU behavior. Updated TOU profile will be used with projected peak demand data for SCE territory to determine if and when the extrapolated lighting load growth will lead to the peak demand coinciding or exceeding SCE generation. This analysis will serve to inform residential DR program design. Pending outcome of updated lighting demand profile, it is recommended that there be pursuit of a Phase 2 effort: Outcome 1 Updated data shows that peak lighting load and plug-load demand cannot be analyzed given detail of available data; or, peak lighting load and plugload do not align with peak demand within SCE service territory. Given a result of Outcome 1, it is recommended that Phase 2 efforts consist of additional analysis of raw data from CPUC Upstream Lighting Program Evaluation report to further characterize lighting load demand profile. Analysis of the updated lighting demand profile compared to the 1999 TOU and CFL-only TOU profile will quantify the shift in lighting TOU behavior. Updated TOU profiles for varying times of year will be used with projected peak demand data for SCE territory to determine if and when the extrapolated lighting load growth will lead to the peak demand coinciding or exceeding SCE generation. Outcome 2 Updated data conclusively shows that peak lighting and plug-load demand align with peak demand within SCE service territory; and analysis using projected peak demand data for SCE territory to determine if and when the extrapolated lighting load growth will lead to the peak demand coinciding or exceeding SCE generation is completed. Given a result of Outcome 2, it is recommended that Phase 2 efforts consist of two tasks: completion of an existing infrastructure analysis, and distribution of a residential customer survey. The infrastructure analysis will entail a market and laboratory evaluation of existing residential sector infrastructure that could support DR integration, including but not limited to the lighting industry, home energy management systems, and household appliances. Existing technologies performing in the residential DR sector will be evaluated, as well as any products operating in the commercial or industrial sector that are applicable. This evaluation will determine ease of operation from the customer s viewpoint as well as the utility, and will evaluate the reliability of each component in the DR chain. Areas in the DR chain that prove to be lacking in existing infrastructure will be identified as areas for further development work. Southern California Edison Page 16

22 If necessary, technologies that pass the laboratory testing and deemed feasible as a field technology will be placed into a field test program, to be developed with SCE. It is recommended that field test site participants be drawn from the pool of existing SCE customers that have previously participated or indicated interest in DR programs. It is recommended that the Residential Customer Survey consist of a qualitative component, as well as a data gathering component to further quantify the time-ofuse load shape for lighting and plug loads that a typical residential customer experiences. It is recommended that the qualitative portion of the Residential Customer Survey include questions that could address the following parameters: What is a customer s willingness to pay for products and a service like DR? How high is customer demand for DR technology? Do customers know how this technology works? How does privacy rank among customers concerns? If new smart appliances were created, would survey respondents replace their existing appliances? The number of customer participants needed for the survey will be statistically relevant based on the number of parameters evaluated and size of pool SCE chooses to evaluate. Southern California Edison Page 17

23 APPENDIX A EE AND DR SAVINGS POTENTIAL Data and charts (below) obtained from a study conducted by the Brattle Group are shown in Figures 4 through The residential sector in the U.S. is expected to see overall electric savings in the 10 12% range by However, there is regional variation in the expected outcomes with high estimates ranging from 5.5 to 15% (below). FIGURE 6. RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ELECTRIC ENERGY EFFICIENCY SAVINGS At the national level, peak demand reductions are expected to range between 4 and 15% for the residential sector. However, there is a large regional variation, as high estimates for peak demand reductions range between 6.5 and 20%. Southern California Edison Page 18

24 FIGURE 7. RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ELECTRIC DR PEAK SAVINGS Ten years from now, experts expect at the national level that more residential customers could be engaged with dynamic pricing (20% is the high estimate) than direct load control (15% high estimate). This expectation of potentially higher dynamic pricing participation than direct load control participation also holds true in two-thirds of the regions of the U.S. FIGURE 8. PERCENT OF RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS WHO WILL BE ENGAGED WITH DR Southern California Edison Page 19

25 APPENDIX B EE POTENTIAL STUDY CHARTS Figures 7 and 8 are from the 2006 California Energy Efficiency Potential study and indicate the consumption by sector and savings potential by measure, respectively. 7 FIGURE 9. CALIFORNIA ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR FIGURE 10. TOTAL TECHNICAL GROSS ENERGY SAVINGS BY MEASURE FOR EXISTING RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS Southern California Edison Page 20

26 APPENDIX C RASS DATA Figures 9 and 10 present additional findings from the 2009 RASS study that were used to develop the estimates for 2016 consumption. 3 FIGURE 11. ELECTRIC UECS AND APPLIANCE SATURATION SUMMARIES BY ELECTRIC UTILITY (KWH) (2009) Southern California Edison Page 21

27 FIGURE 12. ELECTRIC UECS FOR NEWER AND OLDER DWELLINGS BY DWELLING TYPE (KWH) (2009) Southern California Edison Page 22

28 REFERENCES 1 Tackling the Plug Load Problem - Small Appliances Use More Energy Every Year. 2 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (2009) 3 California Energy Commission, 2009 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study, Executive Summary, CEC ES, October 2010, p. 2, 4 Ibid., p. 2 5 Ibid., p. 3 6 California Energy Commission, 2003 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study, Executive Summary, CEC , June 2004, p. 3, 009/ _ ES.PDF 7 Itron Consulting, California Energy Efficiency Potential Study. Volume 1, CALMAC Study ID: PGE , May 24, 2006, 8 Ibid. 9 Staff Report - Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Impact of TOU Rates on Distribution Load Shapes in a Smart Grid with PHEV Penetration on%20distribution%20load%20shapes%20in%20a%20smart%20grid%20with%20p HEV%20penetration.pdf 11 Frost and Sullivan End-User Survey Heschong Mahone Group. Lighting Efficiency Technology Report, Volume Ecos Consulting. Final Field Research Report pdf Southern California Edison Page 23

29 14 Energy Efficiency and Demand Response in A Survey of Expert Opinion 15 Lighting the Way: Perspective on the Global Lighting Market - Mckinsey and Co Smart Grid White Paper - AHAM - December Staff Report - Federal Energy Regulatory Commission - June Residential Demand Response Evaluation: A Scoping Study - DRRC - June Electric Co-op Today - Survey Sees Slowing Electric Growth - November 30, group/36846 Southern California Edison Page 24