Christopher Morgan, PhD Environment & Energy Office, City of Toronto. First Generation AQ Modelling at AQIB (2000) AQ Improvement Branch & Sweepers

Transcription

1 1 CITY OF TORONTO S MODELLING STUDIES & NEW DIRECTIONS AWMA FALL CONFERENCE AIR DISPERSION MODELLING OCTOBER 22 ND 2013 Christopher Morgan, PhD Environment & Energy Office, City of Toronto Outline 2 First Generation AQ Modelling at AQIB (2000) AQ Improvement Branch & Sweepers Improved AQ Model (2006) Changed Approach to Address Changed Needs Most Recent Results by E&EO (2012) Future AQ Directions (AQ Improvements)

2 3 Players & Partners & Thank You s Air Quality Improvement Branch, Environmental Services / Technical Services RWDI EarthTech / Golder Ortech Spectral Analysis Research & Policy Development, Environment Office / Environment & Energy Office Golder RWDI 4 First Generation AQ Model at AQIB Role & Responsibility Evaluation (Gap Analysis) MOE Monitors at 4 Monitoring i Stns in Toronto But Policy & Action Needs Information re Sources AQ Modelling Needed re Actions & Policy But Not for Compliance Testing Engaged RWDI (2000/2001) to evaluate e our use of CMAQ (relying completely on others) CALPUFF (relying perhaps on our selves) Installed CALPUFF at AQIB based on local + top down data a rough & ready early beginning

3 AQ Improvement Branch & PM10 PM2.5 5 Though our model system was very limited Identified a clear Policy Direction re PM Problems Street Cleaning is a Municipal Responsibility Including PM10 & PM2.5 on Streets Need to Do a Better Job Rule 1186 re PM10 = Inadequate Developed Clean Roads to Clean Air Program Developed a Testing Protocol Designed & Built a Testing Facility Tested All Types of Sweepers (Mechs. Vacs. Regens etc) Toronto Purchased 50 Regenerative Air Sweepers Advised on Their Proper Use EC Lic. - Env. Tech. Verification ETV Adopted our Protocol

4 Street Monitoring PM10 & PM Figure 6m Dec. 4 Test 1: PM 10 Motorist Exposure (Entire Circuit) Average [PM10] = mg/m Figure 6n Dec. 4 Test 1: PM 2.5 Motorist Exposure (Entire Circuit) Average [PM2.5] = mg/m PM 10 (mg/m 3 ) PM 2.5 (mg/m 3 ) :52:40 10:54:30 10:56:20 10:58:10 11:00:00 11:01:50 11:03:40 11:05:30 11:07:20 11:09:10 11:11:00 11:12:50 11:14:40 11:16:30 11:18:20 11:20:10 11:22:00 11:23:50 11:25:40 11:27:30 Time 11:29:20 11:31:10 11:33:00 11:34:50 11:36:40 11:38:30 11:40:20 11:42:10 11:44:00 11:45:50 11:47:40 11:49:30 11:51:20 11:53:10 11:55:00 11:56: :52:38 10:54:28 10:56:18 10:58:08 10:59:58 11:01:48 11:03:38 11:05:28 11:07:18 11:09:08 Spadina Harbord Ossington Dundas Jarvis Wellington John Queen 11:10:58 11:12:48 11:14:38 11:16:28 11:18:18 11:20:08 11:21:58 11:23:48 11:25:38 11:27:28 Time 11:29:18 11:31:08 11:32:58 11:34:48 11:36:38 Spadina 11:38:28 Harbord 11:40:18 Ossington Dundas Jarvis 11:42:08 11:43:58 Wellington 11:45:48 11:47:38 11:49:28 John 11:51:18 11:53:08 Queen 11:54:58 11:56: Figure 9i Nov. 26 Test 2: PM 10 Pedestrian Exposure (Entire Circuit) Average [PM10] = mg/m Figure 9j Nov. 26 Test 2: PM 2.5 Pedestrian Exposure (Entire Circuit) Average [PM2.5] = mg/m 3 PM 10 (mg/m 3 ) PM 2.5 (mg/m 3 ) :01:13 16:02:33 16:03:53 16:05:13 16:06:33 16:07:53 16:09:13 16:10:33 16:11:53 16:13:13 16:14:33 16:15:53 16:17:13 16:18:33 16:19:53 16:21:13 16:22:33 16:23:53 16:25:13 16:26:33 Time 16:27:53 16:29:13 16:30:33 16:31:53 16:33:13 16:34:33 16:35:53 16:37:13 16:38:33 16:39:53 16:41:13 16:42:33 16:43:53 16:45:13 16:46:33 16:47: :00:57 16:02:17 Queen (North Side) 16:03:37 16:04:57 16:06:17 16:07:37 16:08:57 16:10:17 York (East Side) 16:11:37 16:12:57 16:14:17 16:15:37 16:16:57 16:18:17 16:19:37 16:20:57 York (West Side) Queen (South Side) 16:22:17 16:23:37 16:24:57 16:26:17 Time 16:27:37 16:28:57 16:30:17 16:31:37 16:32:57 16:34:17 16:35:37 16:36:57 16:38:17 16:39:37 16:40:57 16:42:17 16:43:37 16:44:57 16:46:17 16:47:37 Queen (North Side) York (East Side) York (West Side) Queen (South Side)

5 Lidar Evaluation at Street Level 9 Current Street Sweepers Mechanical (Dry Mode) Regenerative-Air Mechanical (Wet (Dry Mode - Vacuum) Mode) Pre-Sweep (Car Passing) A Sweeping (Sweeper Passing) B Post-Sweep (Car Passing) C 1 2

6 Current Street Sweeper Mechanical (Dry Mode) Proposed New Technology Regenerative-Air (Dry Mode - Vacuum) Pre-Sweep (Car Passing) A Sweeping (Sweeper Passing) B C Post-Sweep (Car Passing) 1 2 Unloading Camel White 10 Onto Salt Spreader Applying Test Materials Spreading Test Materials

7 Disco Sweeper Testing Facility 13 Improved AQ Model (2006) 14 With help from Earth Tech / Golder Changed Top-Down to Include more Specific Local Bottom-Up Data (also ensured no double counting) Improved Grid Resolution We had Better Access to Data and Results Improved CAC Maps (including PM) etc Mapped CACs by Sources (Points, Lines, Areas &All by Annual, 24 hr, 8 hr and 1hr But Still Inadequate Spatial Resolution And Still Reliant on Consultants And No Trans-boundary Emissions

8 AREA SOURCES ONLY N AAQC 200 Northing (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Easting (m) Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 24 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 24 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 200 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 15, 2006 AQIB MOBILE SOURCES ONLY N AAQC 200 Northing (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Easting (m) Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 24 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 24 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 200 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 15, 2006 AQIB

9 POINT SOURCES ONLY N AAQC 200 Northing (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Easting (m) Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 24 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 24 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 200 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 15, 2006 AQIB ALL SOURCES N AAQC 200 Northing (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Easting (m) Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 24-hour 2 NO Maximum 24 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m 3 ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 200 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 22, 2006 AQIB

10 AREA SOURCES ONLY N Northing (m) AAQC Easting (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 1 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 1 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 400 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 14, 2006 AQIB MOBILE SOURCES ONLY N Northing (m) AAQC Easting (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 1 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 1 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 400 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 14, 2006 AQIB

11 POINT SOURCES ONLY N Northing (m) AAQC Easting (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 1 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 1 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 400 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 14, 2006 AQIB ALL SOURCES N Northing (m) AAQC Easting (m) Monitoring Station Toronto Major Arterial Highways & Ramps NO 1 Hour 2 3 NO Maximum 1 Hour Average Concentration ( g/m ) 2 3 Ambient Air Quality Criterion (AAQC) = 400 g/m City of Toronto - Toronto, Ontario Created by: Scale: Date Created: NAD 83 UTM LAB Figure: TD 1 : Feb. 14, 2006 AQIB

12 So - still not making a lot of sense! 23 Obvious significance of missing upwind imports Resolution is too coarse to see local l details Point Sources invisible within uniform areal conc s Mobile Concentrations highest in the east But should be much closer to Junction Not an adequate basis to develop policy and/or improvement actions Internal Evaluation (circa ) 24 Need to Take More Control of our Modelling Need to Include TPH s 30 Substances Need to Include Chemistry (some or all?) Deferred Need Upwind Sources Need Improved Resolution Need Improved Community Outreach Need Smaller Local-Specific Models And with help from Golder We Undertook Ward 5 + Ward 6 LAQ Modelling

13 25 Changed Approach to Address Both Our Issues & Our Changed Needs Local Area Specific AQ Modelling S.Riverdale-Leslieville-Beaches (Wards 30 & 32) History of Concern & Political Pressure/Requirement 3 Nested Modelled Areas (Tiers 1,2,3) NE USA (Tier 1 US EPA TRI) Ontario (Tier 2 NPRI + Major Roads & Area Estimated Sources) Toronto Sources (Tier 3 NPRI + All Road Data + Residential/Commercial Emissions + 3) Ward 5 & 6 Receptors (561 virtual monitoring stns) 26 Three Nested Model Domains

14 561 Receptors ( Virtual Monitoring Stations) 27 Emissions Concentrations 28 Emission by Sources into the Model Domains US 90% Ontario 9% Toronto 1% Concentrations by Sources into the Community US 39% Ontario 25% Toronto 36%

15 Contributions to Local Pollution Northeast US 39% Southern Ontario 25% Toronto 36% 12% 4% 16% 4% Residential + Commercial Mobile Non-Road Mobile Industrial DVP emissions Nitrogen Oxides Benzo[a]Pyrene e e Benzene PM10 and PM2.5 1,3 Butadiene Acrolein Cadmium Carbon Monoxide Formaldehyde Mercury

16 NO2 24 hr B[a]P Annual 31 Airport (BBTCA) emissions Acrolein Chromium Acetaldehyde Formaldehyde Manganese Sulphur Dioxide

17 Acrolein 24 hr Chromium Ann 33 Local Hot Spot Emissions Benzene PM2.5 Mercury Nickel Tetrachloroethylene Toluene Volatile Organ Carbons

18 Benzene 24 hr PM hr hr Concentration Levels 36 4 PACs exceed their 24-hr AAQC's NO x, PM 10, PAH (as B(a)P) and Benzene Exceedances for first 3 PACs are due to traffic while the exceedance for benzene is from traffic and industrial sources

19 Annual Concentration Levels 37 2 PACs exceed their AAQC levels Benzene PAH (as B(a)P) Over 50% of the annual average benzene level comes from Toronto, 39% is attributed to vehicular activity Most of the PAH's (68%) come from sources from beyond the City. Most Recent Results Research & Policy Development (TEO E&EO) extracted data concerning Etobicoke-Lakeshoe (Wards 5 & 6) This took an inordinate amount of time on our old & slow workstations but find we can see & learn more and produce more public-relevant maps See 18 Local Area Ward Groupings (Later)

20 39 Modelling Areas: Emissions to Concentrations MOE s 4 AQ Monitoring Stations in Toronto 40

21 41 Air Quality Contaminants: Concentrations at Virtual Monitoring Stations 1048 Virtual Monitoring Stations - 200m apart Permits fine mapping resolution and detailed local neighbourhood assessment Full Model (Tier 1, 2 & 3) Checked against MOE s 4 Air Quality Stations MAP TYPES 42 COMPLIANCE ASSESSMENT MAPS to show Comparison of Modelled Concentrations to Desirable AAQCs (Standard)Maps ANALYSIS MAPS to show Worst Case 24-Hour Maps 98 th Percentile Maps [re Worst Case] Annual Average Maps HEALTH CUMULATIVE RISK MAPS

22 List of 30 Priority Air Contaminants Acetaldehyde 2. Acrolein 3. Benzene 4. 1,3-Butadiene 5. Cadmium 6. Carbon Monoxide 7. Carbon tetrachloride 8. Chloroform 9. Chloromethane 10. Chromium 11. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 12. 1,2-Dichloroethane 13. Dichloromethane 14. Ethylene dibromide 15. Formaldehyde 16. Lead 17. Manganese 18. Mercury 19. Nickel compounds 20. Nitrogen Oxides 21. PAHs (as B[a]Ps) 22. PM Tetrachloroethylene 24. Toluene 25. Trichloroethylene 26. Vinyl Chloride 27. PM Sulfur Dioxide 29. VOCs (Anthro. & Biogenic) 30. Ozone 44 Ozone (OBM) + VOCs (No AAQC) & 3 WHITE (BLUE) MAPS ( ) 1. Acetaldehyde 2. Acrolein 3. Benzene 4. 1,3-Butadiene 5. Cadmium 6. Carbon Monoxide 7. Carbon tetrachloride 8. Chloroform 9. Chloromethane 10. Chromium. But see Health 11. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 12. 1,2-Dichloroethane 13. Dichloromethane 14. Ethylene Dibromide 15. Formaldehyde 16. Lead 17. Manganese * 18. Mercury 19. Nickel compounds 20. Nitrogen Oxides 21. PAHs (as B[a]Ps) 22. PM PM Tetrachloroethylene 25. Toluene 26. Trichloroethylene 27. Vinyl Chloride 28. Sulfur Dioxide 29. VOC (Anthropogenic/Biogenic) 30. Ozone

23 17 YELLOW & 3 GREEN MAPS Acetaldehyde * 2. Acrolein * 3. Benzene 4. 1,3-Butadiene 5. Cadmium 6. Carbon Monoxide 7. Carbon tetrachloride 8. Chloroform 9. Chloromethane 10. Chromium.But see Health Map 11. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 12. 1,2-Dichloroethane 13. Dichloromethane 14. Ethylene dibromide 15. Formaldehyde * 16. Lead 17. Manganese * 18. Mercury 19. Nickel compounds 20. Nitrogen Oxides 21. PAHs (as B[a]Ps) 22. PM PM Tetrachloroethylene 25. Toluene 26. Trichloroethylene 27. Vinyl Chloride 28. Sulfur Dioxide * 29. VOC (Anthropogenic/Biogenic) 30. Ozone 46 5 RED MAPS 1. Acetaldehyde 2. Acrolein 3. Benzene 4. 1,3-Butadiene 5. Cadmium 6. Carbon tetrachloride 7. Chloroform 8. Chloromethane 9. Chromium 10. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 11. 1,2-Dichloroethane 12. Dichloromethane 13. Ethylene dibromide 14. Formaldehyde 15. Lead 16. Manganese 17. Mercury 18. Nickel compounds 19. Nitrogen Oxides 20. PAHs (as B[a]Ps) 21. PM Tetrachloroethylene 23. Toluene 24. Trichloroethylene 25. Vinyl Chloride 26. Carbon Monoxide 27. PM Sulfur Dioxide 29. VOC (Anthropogenic/Biogenic) 30. Ozone

24 Highway Emissions Nitrogen Oxides Benzo[a]Pyrene PM10 PM2.5 Benzene 1,3 Butadiene Acrolein Cadmium Carbon Monoxide Formaldehyde Mercury Airport (BBTCA) emissions Acrolein Chromium Acetaldehyde Formaldehyde Manganese Sulphur Dioxide

25 Combination Emissions PM2.5 Benzene Local Hot Spot Emissions PM2.5 Tt Tetrachloroethylene thl Chromium Others?

26 Compliance Maps as % of AAQC ,3 Butadiene & 1,4 Dichlorobenzene

27 Acetaldehyde & Acrolein 53 Cadmium & Carbon Monoxide 54

28 Carbon Tetrachloride & Chloroform Chromium* & Dichloromethane

29 Ethylene Dichloride & Formaldehyde 57 Lead & Manganese 58

30 Mercury & Nickel Cmpnds. 59 Sulph Dioxide & Tetrachloroethylene 60

31 Toluene & Trichloroethylene RED MAPS 1. Acetaldehyde 2. Acrolein 3. Benzene 4. 1,3-Butadiene 5. Cadmium 6. Carbon tetrachloride 7. Chloroform 8. Chloromethane 9. Chromium 10. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 11. 1,2-Dichloroethane 12. Dichloromethane 13. Ethylene dibromide 14. Formaldehyde 15. Lead 16. Manganese 17. Mercury 18. Nickel compounds 19. Nitrogen Oxides 20. PAHs (as B[a]Ps) 21. PM Tetrachloroethylene 23. Toluene 24. Trichloroethylene 25. Vinyl Chloride 26. Carbon Monoxide 27. PM Sulfur Dioxide 29. VOC (Anthropogenic/Biogenic) 30. Ozone

32 Nitrogen Oxide: Compl. & Analysis 63 BENZENE Comp & Analysis 64

33 BENZO[A]PYRENE Comp & Anal PM10 Compliance & Analysis

34 PM2.5 Compliance & Analysis 67 Full Set of Maps: 5x Substance Hour (Worst Case) 98 th Percentile Annual Average Compliance (cf. with MOE AAQCs) TPH Health Risk Values Map

35 Nitrogen Oxide: Comp. & Analysis 69 NOx 24 Hour NOx 98 th % 70

36 NOx Annual NOx Compliance 71 NOx (NO2) 70% Excess Risk/Cap 72 70% because of NO to NO2 conversion Excess Risk per Capita from TPH shows..

37 1 RED but MISSING MAP - Cr Acetaldehyde 2. Acrolein 3. Benzene 4. 1,3-Butadiene 5. Cadmium 6. Carbon tetrachloride 7. Chloroform 8. Chloromethane 9. Chromium 10. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene 11. 1,2-Dichloroethane 12. Dichloromethane 13. Ethylene dibromide 14. Formaldehyde 15. Lead 16. Manganese 17. Mercury 18. Nickel compounds 19. Nitrogen Oxides 20. PAHs (as B[a]Ps) 21. PM Tetrachloroethylene 23. Toluene 24. Trichloroethylene 25. Vinyl Chloride 26. Carbon Monoxide 27. PM Sulfur Dioxide 29. VOC (Anthropogenic/Biogenic) 30. Ozone Chromium Compl. & Health Risk 74

38 Chromium & 2011 NPRI 75 SO2 Compliance & Health Risk 76

39 PM2.5 Compl. & Health Risk 77 Health Risk Assessment (TPH) Re: Ward 30 & Ward 32 Most substances met Ontario s ambient air quality criteria (AAQCs) individually but Non Cancerous Toxics - Cumulative risk is 0.31, & is below the threshold for concern Cancerous - Cumulative cancer risk is 83 in 1 million, this is about 2 per cent of the total cancer incidence rate in Toronto Criteria Air Contaminants - Cumulative risk of premature death is increased by 8.9 percent

40 Cumulative Health Assessment Maps 79 Distribution of cumulative risk from non-carcinogens Distribution of cumulative risk from carcinogens Distribution of cumulative risk of mortality from criteria air contaminants Conclusions from TPH 80 Re: Ward 30 & Ward 32 Most carcinogens are below the one in one million excess cancer risk benchmark & the cumulative level is very low compared to the total incidence rate of cancer in Toronto The non-carcinogenic toxics are below levels of concern to health, even when combined exposure taken into account Criteria air contaminants such as ozone, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter contribute to the burden of illness Some areas show a higher risk than others Current Ontario standards for CACs are not fully protective of health

41 Remaining Work 81 ID possible Concentrated Emission Sources Verify & Discuss with MOE MOE talks with the relevant Industry/ies (if nec.) Add in Tier 1 & Tier 2 Add in TPH Cumulative Risk Maps & Analysis Add in ChemTRACK data (all 3 phases) Reassess Totals and Local Contributions Return to the Community New Directions (1) Local Neighbourhood Groupings Data Extraction ti by RWDI We can do 3 per year - needed faster delivery! Add Chem-TRAC Data from TPH (Avoid Double Counting) into Model Layers Take the Message to the People e (Community Awareness & Outreach) Combined Air Quality + Climate Change & Energy Conservation Responses Roving Neighbourhood AQ Monitor

42 Proposed Local Air Quality Neighbourhood Groupings Sth Riverdale - Beaches Etobicoke - Lakeshore New Directions (2) 84 Advocacy (Transportation) For Improved dtransportation ti Emissions i Standards d Work w TPH re Health Costs Connect with Other Major Canadian Cities Together with Public Health Work w Ministries of (i) Environment (ii) Health (iii) Transportation Re Trucks Especially Re Cars & SUVs etc as well

43 NOx Ann PM2.5 Ann 85 New Directions (3) 86 Adaptation (Urban Planning & Urban Design) Amend Provincial i Policy Statement t t (PPS) -- done Include in City s Official Plan -- done Tool Kit for Planners (Urban Design) -- in progress Test & Develop Concepts Standard -- in future Develop Appropriate Designs & Configurations from 3-Dimensional AQ Modelling & Technical Analysis of Downtown Tall Buildings & Streets

44 Urban Canyon Problems 87 3D Modelling Computer + Physical 88

45 Buildings & Street Design 89 Air Flow Between & Through Buildings 90

46 Ventilation Index for Planners 91 Bldg Shape & Orientation 92

47 New Directions (4) 93 Air Chemistry Improvement (CMAQ) To better address smog issues etc To better use ChemTRAC data To avoid comparative public perception of inadequacies Run CMAQ at a high resolution esou o to mimic CALPUFF Tier 1,2, 3 approach Rely on Consultants Integrate with Continuing CALPUFF Needs 94 THE END QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION? Further/Later Questions & Concerns to Christopher Morgan cmorgan1@toronto.ca