Assessing and Managing Risk: What Is the Difference? How Can We Assess and Manage Risk? Michael Hoff U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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1 Quotes Plato Necessity is the mother of invention Mark Twain Necessity is the mother of taking chances Mike Hoff Taking unnecessary chances [risks] is the mother of invasion Invasion should be the mother of: Invention and PREVENTION

2 Assessing and Managing Risk: What Is the Difference? How Can We Assess and Manage Risk? Who Can Help Me? Michael Hoff U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Bloomington, MN

3 Definitions Risk Assessment: Risk characterization Risk Management: weighing [and implementing] policy alternatives

4 Definitions Risk Screening: Rapid (hours) risk assessment

5 Definitions Species Risk: Risk characterization of a species independent of whether it is being moved by humans Pathway Risk: Human means, and other means of transport/movement, of a single or many invasive species

6 A Label on a jar of peanuts

7 Historically, FWS Risk Assessments were State-of-the-Artt th At If that art was finger painting

8 Bests Predictors of Species es Invasion For a species, best predictors of invasiveness are: History of invasiveness Climate/Habitat match: Climate match Between locations where established, and Target locations (e.g., US) Habitat Match Propagule Pressure

9 My/FWS Approach: Species es Rapid Risk Assessment e (Screening Process) Detailed (6 page) procedure used to conduct the screening Information/data/outputs/synthesis packaged in standardized format Supervisory and other internal peer review

10 Species Screening Report Outline Native Range, and Status in the United States Biology and Ecology Impacts of Introductions Global Distribution Climate Matching with US Risk Assessment Summary of Risk to the US High Risk Species: Projections of establishment and impacts in US Within habitats, and for ecosystem components References

11 Great GeatLakes Restoration estoato Initiative tat I have received funding for conducting rapid screening to support regulatory and non-regulatory decision making Last three years 2,000 species screened in DRAFT form Screening reports are being posted online FWS website Comments on reports enabled

12 FWS Screening Results: Species Examples

13 Spiny Waterflea ea

14 Spiny Waterflea ea History of Invasiveness: It has caused major changes in the zooplankton community structure competes directly with small fishes and can have impact on zooplankton community (USEPA 2008).

15 Spiny Waterflea ea Risk Assessment Elements History of Invasiveness: High Climate Match: High OverallRisk Assessment Category: High Certainty of Assessment: High

16 Viral Hemorrhagic agc Septicemia (VHS) Internationally significant fish disease Caused massive mortalities of fishes in many areas Documented in Lake Superior, other Great Lakes, elsewhere Can be transported in water and bait

17 History of Invasiveness: ess VHS Mortalities of fishes including: Bluegill Black crappie Muskellunge Yellow perch Other species

18 VHS Risk Assessment Elements History of Invasiveness: High Climate Match: High Overall Risk Assessment Category: High Certainty of Assessment: High

19 Quagga Mussel Risk Assessment Elements History of Invasiveness: High Climate Match: High OverallRisk Assessment Category: High Certainty of Assessment: High

20 Monoecious Hydrilla RAMP climate match: Current conditions High climate match with MN

21 Monoecious oec ous Hydrilla Risk Assessment Elements History of Invasiveness: High Climate Match: High OverallRisk Assessment Category: High Certainty of Assessment: High

22 Uncertain Risk Species

23 Marmorkrebs Climate Match for Continental U.S.: Current Climate Conditions

24 Ecological Risk Screening Summary: Marmorkrebs in relation to U.S. Risk Assessment Elements History of Invasiveness: None Climate Match: Medium OverallRisk Assessment Category: Uncertain

25 Low Risk Species

26 Betta (Betta splendens) spe s) Risk Assessment History of Invasiveness: None documented No impacts documented. Climate Match: Low (0.000 Lowest possible) Overall Risk Assessment Category: Low Certainty of Assessment: High

27 Accounting for Climate Change FWS has developed a tool that projects climate niche 2050, 2070 IPCC emission scenarios: No change Increased impact scenarios Output maps and scores climate match Peer review completed

28 Results of Pathway Risk Assessment: Great Lakes Jurisdictional Illegal Trade and Transport of Live Organisms

29 Methods Pathway Risk Analysis Task Team: Questionnaire Submitted to GLFC LE Committee Questionnaire responses/scores analyzed for: Risk Assessment Level & Confidence in assessment responses

30 Range of pathway risk ranks. (0 = No Risk, 4-6= Medium, 7-10 = High Risk) Risk Rank Unacceptable Upper Range Lower Range N/A

31 Conclusions cuso s Risk Reduction needed in one or more jurisdictions for All Pathways except Biological Supply

32 Examples of Pathways for AIS (in no particular order) Watercraft Lake Service Providers Live Bait Water Gardens Horticulture Aquaria Internet Live Food Illegal stocking Connections with infested waters

33 How Can I/We conduct risk Assessments? e Species Risk Assessments I can train you, or provide completed products

34 How can I/We conduct risk Assessments? e Pathway Risk Assessments You can conduct pathway risk assessment by: [DISCLAIMER] The following are EXAMPLES for illustrative purposes only

35 How can I/We conduct risk Assessments? e Pathway Risk Assessments You CAN conduct pathway risk assessment by: During boat inspections: Continue to document/record/enforce violations (depending on authorities) Potentially ask questions about:» Whether boats were plying infested waters within the previous X days (boat risk)» Awareness/compliance with state regulations (boater risk)

36 How can I/We conduct risk Assessments? e Pathway Risk Assessments Develop survey questions, and seek analytical support from those with social science expertise???» UMN Sea Grant?» UMN Extension?»?FWS?»?Others

37 In the end We need to minimize risk of species and pathways Risks vary with location Thus, site-specific risk assessment and management needed for, at least, pathways You should work with others to assess risk and manage risk to protect t your lake

38 There is a silver bullet for AIS: Risk Prevention Develop and implement a comprehensive prevention and management plan Based on results of species and pathway risk assessments

39 Without a Risk-Based Prevention Program, you are working without a net Are you comfortable with that?

40 Your Lake is in Our hands. for now, and for future generations. Invasion should be the mother of invention/prevention