National Technical University of Athens School of Architecture. Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Urban Development VOLOS PLPR,2015

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1 National Technical University of Athens School of Architecture Carrying Capacity and Sustainable Urban Development VOLOS PLPR,2015

2 Definitions: "Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key concepts (Brundtland report 1987) ENVIRONMENT = ECONOMY = SOCIETY

3 Sustainable Development is not: The mere economic prosperity of a region The greening of an area(we can not demolish the buildings of a city and in position build parks, believing that this will make it sustainable). You need to find for each type of area ( for each area with its own unique characteristics) a model of sustainable development which fulfills equality between economy, environment and society. Must be found the growth threshold limit should be able to vary according to the characteristics of the, and to be derived from an overall design for the environment, economy and society, while maintaining the area of sustainability levels.

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5 Carrying Capacity The earth can only hold a definite amount of human growth for a definite time. ( Thomas Malthus ) Number of humans the world could support ( William Godwin) maximum permissible load (Buildings) capacity of the area to recover after use Different Definitions in every spatial system Resilience of ecosystem to keep its physical characteristics the maximum, equilibrium number of organisms of a particular species that can be supported indefinitely in a given environment. (ecosystmes) In the above chart we see that the population of a particular species in its natural ecosystem increased to the point that reaches the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. From this point onwards, any fluctuations in the population tend to return to equilibrium, that is the carrying capacity of the ecosystem.

6 - Traffic limit so that the park remains viable (national parks). - Maximum number of visitors who can accept the area without going not accept charge (tourism) In Greek Reality carrying capacity associated with tourism development Urban Planning Definitions - Maximum number of individuals of a given species that an area's resources can sustain indefinitely without significantly depleting or degrading those resources - the level of human activities, population growth, patterns & extent of land use, physical development, which can be sustained by the urban environment without causing serious degradation and irreversible damage In other words carrying capacity of an area refers to an extreme limit. This limit defines the population carrying capacity of the area. If this limit is crossed then the nature will react by imposing pressure to resist the abrupt growth and development of the people resulting into equilibrium

7 General Definition: Urban Carrying Capacity is The maximum resistance of a space on a number of factors such as population growth, unemployment, crime, air pollution, water quality, the size of liquid and solid waste, congestion, structured surface, etc. so that he (the space) remains sustainable, that is to develop and operate under the principles of sustainability

8 Implementation Problems of Method of Carrying Capacity - Difficulties in quantifying the method in Urban systems - Urban space is a much more complex system that has to manage environmental and social and economic issues - lack of reliable data - Indicators from different categories (Carrying Capacity can t be a sum of indicators from different classes) Quantification efforts method: - Ecological Footprint model - IPAT equation - Modeling carrying capacity for national parks

9 Ecological Footprint model Developed by Mathis Wackernagel at the University of British Columbia They called the concept appropriated carrying capacity, which was later on termed as ecological footprint to make the concept more understandable and accessible. The ecological footprint is a measure of the human demands on the biosphere. This model gives an idea about the amount of biologically productive land and water area required to produce all the resources needed by the population for its consumption and developmental activities as well as to absorb the wastes generated. "Ecological Footprint (EFp)" in a population study is the footprint per capita (ef) multiplied by the population size (N). EFp = N (ef)

10 IPAT equation It is a multi constraint model that uses different factors in calculating the carrying capacity is one of the most pioneering attempts to estimate the level of environmental degradation by the dwelling population in an urban area that incorporates the usage of multiple factors or constraints I=P x A x T I refers to the Impact on the environment, P refers to the size of the human population, A refers to the affluence or the level of consumption by that population and T refers to the processes used to obtain resources and transform them into useful goods and wastes It does not give any information on the sustainable limits but it surely gives a useful framework in thinking about ways of reducing environmental impacts by reducing various types of throughput

11 Modeling carrying capacity for national parks Tony Prato and the University of Columbia, in 2001 for the sustainable management of national parks The C.C. defined as the number of visitors who can "bear" without degradation of natural resources and the "pleasure" of visitors It describes : a model system C.C.. allowing managers of parks to determine quantitatively whether and how the current state of the parks ecosystem consistent with established standards of biophysical and social C.C. and, if not, to identify those strategies that are most likely to restore the ecosystem within these standards.

12 Other Methods Environmental Sustainable Index (Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy) Composer Carrying Capacity (Modelling the Carrying Capacity of Urban Ecosystem) Envision (Zofnass Program for Sustainable Infrastructure) Framework for calculation of carrying capacity using method of Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation (SAFE) Energy analysis model Pressure-State-Response model

13 Framework of a methodology for the assessment - calculation of the Carrying Capacity. Problem in quantifying the method in Urban systems Urban space is a much more complex system that has to manage environmental and social and economic issues Through the methodology should be achieved collaboration between the indicators from three categories the role of sustainability indicators as a catalyst for reading space problems As Part of my phd research : - We use quantitative analysis methods to achieve the assessment of carrying capacity in combination with GIS - We are looking to achieve calculation of Carrying capacity with the help of sustainability indicators through a qualitative analysis of space

14 Qualitative analysis Proposal

15 Elements to be Considered Sustainable indicators and their calculation are the result of bibliographic research (Eurostat, European Environment Agency, OECD, UNEP) The selection of indicators is related to do with the area examined and the data can be found Each indicator has its own limitations The methodological framework presented is empirical and is not trying to give numerical or absolute answers but to create a methodological framework within which can operate C.C.

16 SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS An indicator is : - something that helps you understand where you are which way you are going and how far you are from where you want to be. - A good indicator alerts you to a problem before it gets too bad and helps you recognize what needs to be done to fix the problem. - Indicators of a sustainable community point to areas where the links between the economy, environment and society are weak. - They allow you to see where the problem areas are and help show the way to fix those problems. - Indicators of sustainability are different from traditional indicators of economic, social, and environmental progress. - Traditional indicators -- such as stockholder profits, asthma rates, and water quality measure changes in one part of a community as if they were entirely independent of the other parts. - Sustainability indicators reflect the reality that the three different segments are very tightly interconnected, as shown in the figure below:

17 INDICATOR COMPUTATION LIMITS Α. Air Quality Number of days of the year in which the values of pollutants exceed the acceptable limits based legislation / Total days of the year Β. Waste Waste volume / Population + Number of Bins waste / Population C. Green - Free Space Green - Free Space D. Transportation Ε. Level of Accessibility F. infrastructure Whole position in transport media / Population + Length of bus lanes, metro lines, etc. / Length of the primary road network Occupancy categories of basic infrastructure G. communication Number of households with usability media (telephone, internet, fax, etc.) / Total households H. economy Unemployment / economically active population composite index based on a questionnaire Society Degree of Satisfaction of the inhabitants of their city Composite index weighs the other indicators

18 Methodology recognition of the reference area and points of neighboring compartmentalization of space according to the administrative boundaries or in relation to the particular characteristics Select sustainable indicators for the study area depending on the region and the availability of data recording the limits of each indicator the index value depending on the distance from the boundaries and takes a positive value if it is within the limits and characterized sustainable. Positive and negative value if it is located at a small percentage off limits and identified in a relatively sustainable. A negative value if outside the price range of the test indicator

19 Sustainable development is subjective for each user of the space. Thus is created a questionnaire through which valued (social) needs and priorities of users to achieve sustainable development The results of the questionnaire lead to the weighting of each indicator For each region we calculate and weigh all the indicators reflected for each region the results of the indicators and then tested solutions and policies to cure bottlenecks of space and sustainable development SECTION VALUE WEIGHTE D VALUE Α Β C + + D ± ± Ε ± ± F

20 Conclusions The concept of C.C. in terms of Greek literature, is an inference tool relative to the spatial saturation of protected areas In literature, it should be noted that there are a number of references to the concept of C.C. and applications. Particular emphasis is placed on finding environmental C.C. difficulty of quantifying the C.C. results in the incomplete application of the spatial design In recent years, efforts have been intensified and the introduction of econometric models can lead to the goal The methodological framework presented is empirical and is not trying to give numerical or absolute answers but to create a methodological framework within which can operate C.C.

21 the future of our city is in our hands