Corporate and Sector Analysis MUMBAI INDIA JANUARY 28, 2010

Transcription

1 Simbhaoli Sugars Limited Integrated Sugar Complexes Corporate and Sector Analysis MUMBAI INDIA JANUARY 28, 2010

2 Presentation contents Company overview Business overview Financial overview Q 1 FY10 update Future growth Plans Indian sugar scenario Govt regulations Sugar balancing Short term outlook Global sugar scenario Demand and supply Price trends

3 Corporate Announcement GREENFIELD 1000 TONES PER DAY WHITE SUGAR REFINERY AT KANDLA, GUJRAT, WEST COAST, INDIA COMMENCEMENT 2011

4 Sugar/ Refining Branding Agri development BUSINESS OVERVIEW Alcohol/Ethanol Sugar and Potable alcohol SSL Import/ Exports Cogeneration of power Port based refining

5 The Facilities/ Capacities Brijnathpur Simbhaoli Chilwaria Facilities Sugar from Cane (TCD) Sugar from Raw (TPD) Alcohol/ ethanol (KLD) Surplus Power (MWH) Organic Manure (000 mt) Simbhaoli Bij Brijnathpur Chilwaria i (Western (Western (Eastern UP) UP) UP) Total SSL integrated complexes 19 IMFL bottling tie ups in 11states apart from UP

6 Company Overview (1/2) Sugar and Sugarcane Complete sugarcane processor with de risked kdbusiness profile fl white sugar from cane raw refining fromcane Setting up a port based 1000 TPD refinery Second largest sugar refining capabilities in India with 2000 TPD capacity Year round production of sugar Strong Agri linkages with over 130,000 sugarcane farmers Large institutional customer base, multiple brands in sugar First Sugar Co in India to receive all international quality certifications (ISO 9000, 14001, HACCP). A Star Export House

7 Company Overview (2/2) By products Present in all segments of alcohol Offeringmultiple brands in potable spirits indomestic (pan India) as well as international markets Exportofsurplus of power to State grid Year round power generation capacity Other by products: CO 2, methane gas, manure Technology edge with an independent research and consultancy subsidiary International trading business independent subsidiary

8 Simbhaoli Sugars: Value Chain Potable alcohol (12 brands) Industrial alcohol ENA/ RS Carbon dioxide de Port Based standalone refinery* Sugar Raw Value added exports Cane sugar Technology Vertical of EC grade sugars Import of raw sugar for refining for domestic/ export market Export of ENA and IMFL products Alcohol/Ethanol (Molasses) Bio-manure (Press mud) By products Integrated sugar complexes Sugar International Market Supplying white and speciality sugars including icing, breakfast, cubes, candy, pharma sugars Power cogeneration with CDM benefits (Bagasse) Local Market Institutional Retail Outlets Trade Buyers Clients include Coca- Cola, ITC, Heinz, PepsiCo, & GlaxoSmithKline *project under implementation Consumers Trust brand has significant share of North Indian branded sugar market

9 Simbhaoli today has capabilities to carry out off season raw refining with minimum conversion losses (Already processed 63,000 mt raw in 2009/10 season. 260,000 mt in 2009 off crop) effective cane development for increasing sugarcane availability and improving recoveries value addition through innovation, branding and quality improvement utilisation of equipment and power generation round the year Business plan Off season Season plan Total Status (09 10) Raw processing g( (MT) 160, , ,000 Processed 80,000 mt Cane sugar (MT) Nil 170, ,000 During current season Power generation (MWH) 11,000 90, ,000 Round the year generation, with bagasse and coal Alcohol (KLD) 11,340 32,130 43,470 Tendering the ethanol to OMCs

10 Technology Edge Technology business through company named Integrated Casetech Consultants Pvt Ltd Providing following services at national and international levels: Technology Upgradation Energy Management Agri Development Maintenance and Support Working on a large number of projects Achieved a top line of Rs 20 mn in the current fiscal Shall emerge as a technology hub in the sugar space

11 Raw Refining Operations Season and off season raw refining capabilities with technical expertise Imported/contracted 2.4 lakh mt raw for off crop period (already refined 0.08 mmt) Plan to refine 3.6 to 4 lakh mt in season in addition to sugar cane Procured raw at an average price of US$ 525 pmt Simbhaoli Monthly Sugar Production Plan (cane and raw) 50,000 40,000 in MT 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Off season July 2009 to Sept 2010 Off season

12 Typical cost sheet for Processing Raw and Cane (per mt of white sugar) Particulars Raw (Rs) Cane (Rs) Industrial Recovery 96.50% 9.25% cost of raw /cane per ton Cost of Raw Material Internal Transportation Cost Processing Cost Factory Cost and Overheads Total By products credit Net Cost Eti Estimated tdselling price EBIDTA Margins EBIDTA % 10.59% 19.8 SSL has purchased sugar at average rate of Rs 24,150 per mt so far and achieved An EBIDTA of over 20% on sugar operations for Q1 FY10

13 Agriculture Management Pioneer in various cane development area Propagating high yield high sugar variety COJ 238, 239, 118 Making available land preparation equipment, plants protection devices Intensive and integrated pest management system Demonstration farming, field trials and continuous training to farmers Mechanisation of cane farming Encouraging farmers for multi cropping with sugarcane Acting as facilitators for entire crop cycle for multiple crops 2,000 hectares area in (plan 5,000 hectares in three years) Industrialyieldof Simbhaoliplantvs IndustryAverage 11 % Recovery SSL Industry average

14 Brand Building Sugar Alcohol In consumer and institutional packs Branded sugars under brand Trust. Domestic sachets and cubes segment growing over 30% annually New markets in different geographical areas Tieupwithmodernretailchains Created export market for branded d sugars. Africa, middle east and Canada are preferred destinations Constitute 8% of total segment sales (CAGR 15%). Target is to increase to 25% SSL spirits is producing brands in whiskey, rum, vodka segments Increasing its presence within India and overseas Brands Hunters/ Simbhaoli XXX (Rum), Seven Knights (Whisky), Seven Knights Lemon flavor (Dry Gin), Xing (Vodka) and Ice Blue Tango (Pre mixed) Developed new brands after extensive research on product, packaging and consumer preferences Achieved 1 mn cases mark in Target for at 2 mn cases Only sugar company nurturing and investing in brand building

15 INDIAN SUGAR INDUSTRY Sugar flows from the surplus to deficit states. Most of the imports from Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal

16 Indian Sugar Balancing Structural deficit: change in sugar cycles (in mmt white values) Particulars Opening Balance Production Sugar Cane Imports Raw Sugar White Sugar Total Imports* Total Sugar Available Demand (Domestic) Export Closing Stock Day s requirement 21 days 34 days 67 days 78 days *Including 96% of Raw sugar after processing SSL estimates In the years 2009 to 2012, anticipated import of mmt of raw/white sugar Indian demand 19 kg/pa per capita still lower to world average Exports after signify the pending export obligations deferred upto Mar 2011

17 Sugarcane availability Production (M MT) Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Concerns in cane availability Shift in the cropping pattern Higher margin from food crops Stagnant yield Water availability Cost of farming Measures Sustained agri management initiatives Higher cane prices New varieties for improving per hectare yield More irrigated area under cane cultivation Multi cropping to increase farm earnings/ hedge risks

18 Sugar Demand elasticity (1/2) Factors directing higher growth inindiansugar demand by 3.75% p a: Population shift rural to urban (c.3.3% p.a. in to ) Increase in population: Average 2% p.a. up to and 1.5% pa thereafter Shift from direct to indirect consumption Shift of consumption from alternate sweeteners to sugar By , total sweetener consumption estimated at 29.9 mmt (27.8 kg per capita); sugar consumption at 24.9 mmt (23.9 kg per capita) Domestic Per capita consumption of alternate sweeteners came down from 12.5 kg in to 4.5 kg in

19 Price movement Correlation between London White, Delhi M 30 and NY 11 Rs/Qtl USD/MT Delhi M 30 L 5 White NY 11 Domestic prices, in view of large imports are in sync with global prices. They are at the levels of over US$ 750 (FPB) for white sugar which is 29 years high Number of GOI initiatives to reduce prices volatility. Criticalisdemandand supply mismatch. May cause further rally in the prices Indian demand and supply mismatch is similar to other countries viz Pakistan, Indonesia, Iran, China and Russia How much high is the high, is anybody s guess

20 Changing sugarcane pricing mechanism GOI has announced (Oct 22, 09) the change in cane price fixation system Fair andremunerative prices replaced Difference of FRP and SAP to be borne by the miller UP millers are paying yet higher price to the farmers based upon economic viability: higher cane cultivation and paving the way for negotiated price mechanism. (Cane price for the season in the range of Rs 205 to 245 per qtl) Levy sugar prices to be calculated based upon FRP. Expected to be Rs 19 per kg for 2009/10 In UP, difference between SAP and FRP is about Rs 300 pmt. This will result in level playing field in sugar costs and substantial gains for non SMP states in the long run Combined cane and refining model will now become the most viable business model in the state of UP

21 Concerns in Indian Sugar Industry Import of white is highly price sensitive. Availability is limited globally Ensuring long term supply of sugar at correct prices will be difficult for GOI Raw sugarprogram curtailment in UP High domestic freights/ port storage facilities Emergence of ethanol on consistent/ sustainable basis Raw processing cost/ loss in conversion in sulphitation plants Industrial and farm yields of sugar/cane Lower availability ofcapacity for off season refinery

22 Particulars Change Estimates Provisional mmt in % WORLD SUGAR INDUSTRY IN MMT Production Consumption Surplus / (Deficit) (7.2) (11.3) Import demand Export availability End Stocks Stocks/ Consumption ratio in% Global sugar trade is about34% of sugar production. Fallingstock Global sugar trade is about 34% of sugar production. Falling stock to use ratio (lowest in last ten years) implies higher sugar prices and high volatility.

23 International Raw Sugar Prices Trend 70 Nov 1974 Price remained above 30 cents 10 months, peaked above (cents perpound) pound) Nov cents Price remained Ready to touch above 30 cents 30 cents and 7 months, 40 conditions 30 peaked above 46 cents similar to 1974 / 1980 persist Jan 7 71 Jan 7 72 Jan 7 73 Jan 7 74 Jan 7 75 Jan 7 76 Jan 7 77 Jan 7 78 Jan 7 79 Jan 8 80 Jan 8 81 Jan 8 82 Jan 8 83 Jan 8 84 Jan 8 85 Jan 8 86 Jan 8 87 Jan 8 88 Jan 8 89 Jan 9 90 Jan 9 91 Jan 9 92 Jan 9 93 Jan 9 94 Jan 9 95 Jan 9 96 Jan 9 97 Jan 9 98 Jan 9 99 Jan 0 00 Jan 0 01 Jan 0 02 Jan 0 03 Jan 0 04 Jan 0 05 Jan 0 06 Jan 0 07 Jan 0 08 Jan 0 09 Jan 10 NY 11 Raw Only two times in past 40 years prices touched 30 cents/pound and each time they gone up way above that level for a period of 7/8 month. However, in real terms, price increase in the past has been much higher giving adjustment of inflation over the period

24 World Outlook World consumption is projected to grow at 1.7% in 09/10, against CAGR of over 2% Carry over stocks at 53.5 mmt are the lowest in recent past Consistent postponement of demand for high prices, means bunching of purchase This may push the world prices to extra ordinary levels (like in the year1974, 60 cents per pound and 1980, 46 cents) Consumption increase in Indian subcontinent, China and Africa The ocean freight costs are rising means higher CIF costs China,per capita consumption at 14 kg ( ) is showing an increase Rising crude price will create fresh interest in ethanol. At US$ 79 a barrel, ethanol becomes economically viable in most of the countries With given scenario, world is getting g into structural shortages of sugar for medium term period, i.e. 3 to 4 years. This sugar cycle may be the biggest

25 Gross turnover Rs 393 Cr, up by 102% Net sales at Rs 325 Cr up by 162% PBT Rs 51 Cr, turned positive: cash profit Rs 61 Cr Refining of 80,000 mt of raw sugar FINANCIAL OVERVIEW (QTR DEC 2009) Average realisation i of sugar Rs 32,800 per mt Closing stock of white sugar 94,400 mt Sugar sales at 83,800 mt Systematic y plans to reduce leverage by deploying o Most of the cash generation o Long term fund raising for the purpose Reduced FCCB liability by 94% by buying back USD mn FCCBs at 53.7% discount

26 Financial results for quarter ended Dec 09 Particulars Quarter ended (Rs in mn) Dec, 09 Dec, 08 % Change Gross Sales/ Income Net Sales / Income Other operating Income Exchange gain 91.9 Total Income Manufacturing Exp Staff Cost Other Expenditure Interest Depreciation Profit / (Loss) Before Tax (104.3) Cash Profit / (Loss) (15.9) Tax Expense Profit After tax (118.6) Avg realisation Sugar (Rs. PMT)

27 Segment wise results (Rs inmn) Segment Total income EBIDTA EBIDTA % Sugar Power Alcohol (24.1) (7.9) Important The benefits under UP sugar industry incentive scheme have not been taken into account The levy price is considered d at Rs 13 per kg White sugar is valued at cost of production

28 Concerns and management response Low capacity utilisation: The sugarcane processing at 70% of capacity on account of lower cane availability in entire area. However, it is more than supplemented by raw processing Restriction on raw processing in UP: Company transferred most of the raw sugar to the factory before the rail movement restriction. So far regular in processing. Rising cane and raw sugar prices: to an extent mitigated by advance purchase of raw. Most of the cane is bought from sugar mills proximity resulting in lower freight. High cane price in this year will help in increased cane plantation in future. Highly leveraged: Reduction in the long term debt by Rs 23 Cr. Present outstanding Rs 285 cr. Plan to pay nearly half of bank loans in next 12 months High interest costs: shall be reduced with lower debt position. Higher closing stocks: An advantage because of anticipated price rise GOI controls on price rise: No further avenue is left as price will have to be determined by demand and supply forces

29 Shareholding pattern (Dec 31, 2009) Category Percentage A. Indian Promoters 44.0 Sub total (A) 44.0 B. Non Promoters Mutual Funds, FIIs and Banks 5.1 Private Corporate Bodies 14.9 Indian Public (individuals) 34.2 NRIs / OCBs 0.5 Any other/ clearing member 1.3 Sub total t l(b) 56.0 Grand Total (A+B) 100 Particulars Options pending allotment No of underlying shares (mn) % of expanded capital ESOPs FCCBs Total Issued equity shares mn of Rs 10 each Paid up share capital Rs 232 mn (USD 4.5 mn) Aggregate of options pending for conversion: 1.35 mn Expanded capital base: mn shares (Rs 245 mn)

30 SETTING UP A 1000 TPD PORT BASED SUGAR REFINERY EXPANDABLE TO 1200 TPD

31 Project Rationale Likely Indian sugar deficit in future on regular basis Current year gap (7 mmt) to be fulfilled by import of raw/ white, out of which 5 mmt likely to be raw Next year, supply gap estimated t at 5 mmt. In future 3 out of 5 years are likely to be domestic sugar shortfalls Indian sub continental and neighboring countries are having sugar deficit Demand is increasing on regular basis Distance between raw processing facilities and port will determine the cost/ earnings The facility can be a tolling destination because of proximity to deficit areas In surplus years, domestic raws can be used for value addition Local Lignite and imported coal is available as fuel

32 Why Simbhaoli Sugars Technology advantage Technology available in house Least conversion costs Conversion losses bl below 35% 3.5% Most competitive production Marketing advantage Already producing and selling 45 icumsa sugar in Northern India Locational advantages: proximity to domestic deficit areas International market Marketing arrangement Product mix: large, medium and small grains Sale within the radius of 700 km Potential ti markets: kt Gujarat, Rajasthan, Rj MP, Haryana, exports Institutional: 50 to 60% of production Sale through distributers and agents Molasses, a premium product will be sold at premium Potential to generate surplus power

33 Our Valued Customer Base For further information please contact Certain statements in this presentation with words or phrases such as is likely to, should, etc., and similar expressions or variation of these expressions or those concerning our future prospects are forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forwardlooking statements due to a number of risks or uncertainties associated with the expectations. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, our ability to successfully implement our strategy and changes in government policies. The company may, from time to time, make additional written and oral forward looking statements, including statements contained in the company s filings with the stock exchanges and our reports to shareholders. The company does not undertake to update any forwardlooking statements that may be made from time to time by or on behalf of the Company