No Longer at a Loss for Words

Transcription

1 No Longer at a Loss for Words Christopher G. Irwin DOE Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability 2017 Transactive Energy Systems Conference June 13, 2017

2 Pillars of our Community 2

3 and yet, here you are 3

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6 Point made in the recent sci-fi movie Arrival: The way we think is influenced by our language. 1. Is grid modernization limited by the way we define grid objectives? 2. Is our ability to collaborate on policy, valuation, technology and other topics limited by a lack of common language, or missing language? Slide and idea courtesy of Don Hammerstrom June 16,

7 Examples of missing language Schadenfreude Taco Four score and seven (how many?) Demand Response 7

8 Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Strengthen, transform, and improve energy infrastructure so that consumers have access to reliable, secure, and clean sources of energy. Advance electricity technology to provides a pathway towards American energy independence and domestic job growth. Protect our nation by hardening and evolving the critical grid infrastructure that the American people and the economy rely upon. 8

9 SCADA Communications Fuel for Generators Shipping SCADA Communications U.S. Critical Infrastructures Depend on Electricity Shipping Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies Oil Fuel for Generators, Lubricants Communications and IT Power for Pumping Stations, Storage, and Control Systems SCADA Communications Water for Production, Cooling, and Emissions Reduction Power for Switches SCADA Communications Fuel Transport and Shipping Power for Pump/Lift Stations and Control Systems Power for Pumping, Signaling, and Switching Electricity Water Fuels, Lubricants Fuel Transport and Shipping Fuel for Generators Power for Compressors, Storage, and Control Systems Water for Cooling Emissions Reductions Water for Cooling Emissions Reductions Transportation Natural Gas Source: Finster, 2016 Heat SCADA Communications 9

10 Key Characteristics of a Modernized Grid Reliable Not prone to outage or disruption Resilient Smaller scale and shorter duration of disruptions if/when they occur Secure Able to mitigate and prevent damage from physical or cyber attack Affordable Deliver electricity at an economicallycompetitive price Flexible Actively respond to the variability and uncertainty of conditions at various timescales Efficient Enable the cost-effective utilization of all generation resources. Efficient Flexible Reliable Grid Modernization Affordable Resilient Secure 10

11 Warning: common language ahead! Some of the slides you see before you will appear in other presentations from other presenters. Do not worry! This is the result of using a common vocabulary, common concepts and common graphical language to talk about industry challenges, transactive energy and transactive systems approaches. It may also on occasion be the sincerest form of flattery. 11

12 Energy goals cannot be met without changes in how we control complex systems Energy systems Potential for substantial efficiencies in end-use systems with new controls More data and devices available New assets difficult to coordinate Existing controls antiquated Cyber-physical systems Growing edge computing resources Cloud computing becoming paradigm Existing security models challenged Traditional centralized control approaches are a common weakness 12

13 Where is this taking us? 13

14 The Problem and the Opportunity The Problem: The power grid is shifting from centralized generation to more distributed forms, and from centralized dispatchable units to dispersed and intermittent renewables. Operating such a grid, capable of powering our society with the reliability and affordable electric rates it demands, will require vastly increased amounts, and new forms, of operational flexibility. The Opportunity: To provide this flexibility at reasonable cost, much of it is expected to be derived from distributed assets such as continually responsive loads, electrical and thermal storage, smart inverters for solar photovoltaic systems, electric vehicle chargers, etc. Transactive Systems provide the control and coordination of innovative technologies required to actively engage customer-owned and third-party assets through transparent, competitive means. This could allow grid operations to approach an optimal balance of supply and demand. 14

15 Challenges can be Addressed by Transactive Systems Benefits from decentralized decision-making approaches Robust scalability: manages large-scale deployments of ~10B new distributed assets Seeks optimal incorporation of the multiple objectives of the stakeholders Respects consumer privacy and choice domains Invites additional resources from DER asset owner investment choices Provides value-based incentives to coordinate them voluntarily Results in coordinated control feedback loop provides stable, predictable response required for system operations Despite being owned & operated by consumers & 3rd parties Smoothly integrates distributed asset capabilities with each other and traditional grid assets, using a level playing field 15

16 Engineering and Economics Meet More Often Economics + Energy requires new analysis and design tools Traditional economics focus on simple economic agents: production, consumption, firms, employees, public goods Transactive energy agents have complicated dynamics as well as economic preferences New computation and optimization challenges Grid Architecture validation QA/QC Need appropriate metrics to evaluate performance, identify limitations, and improve designs Optimality, robustness, convergence, scalability, competitiveness, fairness Assemble theoretically based techniques and formulations Economic theory, control theory, complex & multi-agent systems theory Assumptions and limitations for appropriate application of such tools 16

17 Valuation Meta Model A valuation study compares scenarios. (Baseline and Test) Taken from the bottom up, Decisions are supported by impacts. Impacts are the differences between scenario metric measurements. A metric is quantified by a valuation model. A valuation model models how value accrues from a system activity. (An activity can be unique to a scenario, or it can be shared by scenarios.) An activity is what a system does to accomplish an objective. An activity is also how a system carries out a use case. 17 June 16,

18 Valuation Documentation Artifacts Documentation Artifacts Use-Case Diagram Business-Value Diagram Class Diagram Behavior Diagram Metric Model Definition Accounting Table 18 June 16,

19 Risk and Uncertainty Probabilistic uncertainty Models must accommodate probabilistic inputs Uncertainty must be propagated through analysis Epistemic uncertainty Uncertainty in inputs unknown The sensitivity of the analysis to uncertainty must be assessed (e.g., Monte Carlo methods) Risk is the effect of these uncertainties on decisions 19

20 Sources of Uncertainty and their Effects on Valuation 20 June 16, Also in Veeramany A, JT Woodward, JG O'Brien, and DJ Hammerstrom "Risk Considerations for Valuation Studies." Abstract submitted to ASME Power and Energy Conference 2017, CHARLOTTE, NC. PNNL-SA

21 No Longer at a Loss for Words Improvements to the way we communicate grid challenges and opportunities should allow New thinking New insights New products and services IF we speak the same language. Spend some time with people you don t know. Maximize the value of your presence here. 21

22 Thank you Christopher Irwin 22