CONTRIBUTO DA ELETRICIDADE NA DESCARBONIZAÇÃO DA ECONOMIA PORTUGUESA: IMPACTO MACRO

Transcription

1 Energy Transitions Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices CONTRIBUTO DA ELETRICIDADE NA DESCARBONIZAÇÃO DA ECONOMIA PORTUGUESA: IMPACTO MACRO Policy Support Alfredo Marvão Pereira Integrative Energy City Planning Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation Rui Marvão Pereira ENERGY & CLIMATE CO 2

2 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices I Policy Support Introdução Integrative Energy City Planning Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation ENERGY & CLIMATE CO 2 2

3 OBJECTIVOS Qual o papel da eletricidade na descarbonização da economia Portuguesa? Quais os impactos macroeconómicos da expansão do consumo de eletricidade em Portugal? Slide [3]

4 MODELOS Sistema Energético, TIMES Elevado detalhe tecnológico Opções tecnológicas geradas endogenamente Procura de serviços de energia exógena Equilíbrio Geral, DGEP Incentivos económicos Equilíbrio preço e quantidade gerado endogenamente Pouco detalhe tecnológico, de processos e atividades Optimismo Opções tecnológicas exequíveis, sem a consideração de restrições económicas e de orçamento (empresas e famílias) e dos custos de oportunidade de escolhas fora do sistema energético. Pessimismo Inércia de comportamentos e tecnológica sem a consideração de restrições materiais e visão muito limitada de futuros desenvolvimentos tecnológicos. Slide [4]

5 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 Carbon Taxation 2 Energy Taxation 3 Value Added Tax CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES DGEP 4 Personal Income Tax ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 5 Corporate Income Tax 6 Value Added Tax 7 Investment Tax Credits 8, 9, 10 Mixed Strategies Slide [5]

6 TIMES HARMONIZAÇÃO DOS MODELOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA 2015= CO 2 Emissions TIMES DGEP Diff (%) Final Demand for Electricity TIMES DGEP Diff (%) Electricity Production from Renewable Sources (%) TIMES DGEP Diff (%) DGEP Slide [6]

7 ANÁLISE INTEGRADA - MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS DECARBONIZATION VIA CARBON PRICING (PROXY TO -60% BY 2050) Carbon taxation based on the marginal cost of reducing emissions by 60% of 1990 levels by 2050 as specified by the TIMES model. The following values are used in euros per ton of CO2: ; ; ; Comparisons among the different simulations are possible because the revenue raised by each alternative tax and the level of revenue recycling is always the same as the tax revenues generated by the carbon tax scenario. As a reference, the magnitude of the carbon tax revenues as % of GDP would be: %; %; %; %. Slide [7]

8 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions Integrative Energy City Planning Policy Support New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation II Os impactos macroeconómicos da descarbonização em Portugal ENERGY & CLIMATE CO 2

9 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 Carbon Taxation 2 Energy Taxation 3 Value Added Tax CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES DGEP 4 Personal Income Tax ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 5 Corporate Income Tax 6 Value Added Tax 7 Investment Tax Credits 8, 9, 10 Mixed Strategies Slide [9]

10 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions ENERGY & CLIMATE Integrative Energy City Planning Policy Support CO 2 New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation II.1 Impactos macroeconómicos de um Imposto sobre o carbono com receitas a reverterem para o OE

11 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 CARBON TAXATION 2 Energy Taxation 3 Value Added Tax CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES DGEP 4 Personal Income Tax ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 5 Corporate Income Tax 6 Value Added Tax 7 Investment Tax Credits 8, 9, 10 Mixed Strategies Slide [11]

12 TABLE 1.1: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Carbon tax Total Note The 2050 value implies a -9.7% reduction in Final Energy Demand vis-à-vis 2015 levels. [TIMES = -3.4%] Slide [12]

13 TABLE 1.2: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Carbon tax Electricity Production Renewable Energy Share Final Demand for Electricity Electricity Demand by Households Electricity Demand by Firms Electricity Share in Final Demand Note The 2050 value implies a 19.6% increase in Final Electricity Demand vis-à-vis 2015 levels [TIMES =34.7%]. Note The 2050 value implies a 35.5% Electricity Share in Final Energy Demand. [TIMES = 36%] Note The 2050 value implies a 87.5% Renewable Energy Share in Electricity Production. [TIMES = 92%] Slide [13]

14 TABLE 1.3: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS Carbon Tax Carbon Dioxide Emissions Households Residential Transportation Firms ETS Non-ETS Note The 2050 value implies a 53.2% reduction in CO2 Emissions vis-à-vis [TIMES = 64.2%] or a 49.8% reduction in CO2 Emissions vis-à-vis [TIMES = 60.1%] Slide [14]

15 TABLE 1.4: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Carbon tax GDP Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports Imports Trade Deficit Foreign Debt Public Debt Slide [15]

16 TABLE 1.5: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON HOUSEHOLDS: EMPLOYMENT Carbon Tax Total First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [16]

17 TABLE 1.6: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON HOUSEHOLDS: AFTER-TAX INCOME Carbon Tax Total First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [17]

18 TABLE 1.7: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON HOUSEHOLDS: PRICES Carbon Tax Total First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [18]

19 TABLE 1.8: CARBON TAX SCENARIO EFFECTS ON HOUSEHOLDS: EQUIVALENT VARIATION Carbon tax First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [19]

20 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions ENERGY & CLIMATE Integrative Energy City Planning Policy Support CO 2 New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation II.2 Impactos macroeconómicos de impostos sobre energia e do IVA com receitas a reverterem para o OE

21 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 Carbon Taxation 2 ENERGY TAXATION 3 VALUE ADDED TAX CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES DGEP 4 Personal Income Tax ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 5 Corporate Income Tax 6 Value Added Tax 7 Investment Tax Credits 8, 9, 10 Mixed Strategies Slide [21]

22 TABLE 2.1: LONG RUN [2050] ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions Carbon Tax Energy Tax VAT Tax Slide [22]

23 TABLE 2.2: LONG RUN [2050] MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt Carbon Tax Energy Tax VAT Tax Slide [23]

24 TABLE 2.3: LONG RUN [2050] DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION Carbon Tax Energy Tax VAT Tax First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [24]

25 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions Integrative Energy City Planning Policy Support New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation II.3 Impactos macroeconómicos de impostos sobre o carbono com reciclagem das receitas: em busca de alternativas ENERGY & CLIMATE CO 2

26 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 Carbon Taxation 2 Energy Taxation 3 Value Added Tax CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES DGEP 4 PERSONAL INCOME TAX ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 5 CORPORATE INCOME TAX 6 Value Added Tax 7 Investment Tax Credits 8 - MIXED STRATEGIES: PIT/CIT Slide [26]

27 TABLE 3.1: LONG RUN [2050] ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions PIT PIT Efficiency CIT CIT Efficiency Carbon Tax Slide [27]

28 TABLE 3.2: LONG RUN [2050] MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt PIT PIT Efficiency CIT CIT Efficiency Carbon Tax Slide [28]

29 TABLE 3.3: LONG RUN [2050] DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION PIT PIT - Efficiency CIT CIT - Efficiency Carbon Tax First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [29]

30 TABLE 3.4 LONG RUN [2050] ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS PIT/CIT Shares Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [30]

31 TABLE 3.5: LONG RUN [2050] MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS PIT/CIT Shares GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [31]

32 TABLE 3.6 LONG RUN [2050] DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION PIT/CIT Shares First Quintile (Lowest Income Level) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income Level) 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [32]

33 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 Carbon Taxation 2 Energy Taxation 3 Value Added Tax CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES 4 Personal Income Tax 5 Corporate Income Tax 6 VALUE ADDED TAX 7 INVESTMENT TAX CREDITS 9 MIXED STRATEGIES: VAT/ITC DGEP Slide [33]

34 TABLE 3.7: LONG RUN [2050] ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions VAT VAT Efficiency ITC ITC Efficiency Carbon Tax Slide [34]

35 TABLE 3.8: LONG RUN [2050] MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt VAT VAT Efficiency ITC ITC Efficiency Carbon Tax Slide [35]

36 TABLE 3.9: LONG RUN [2050] DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION VAT VAT - Efficiency ITC ITC - Efficiency Carbon Tax First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [36]

37 TABLE 3.10: LONG RUN [2050] ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS VAT/ITC Shares Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [37]

38 TABLE 3.11: LONG RUN [2050] MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS VAT/ITC Shares GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [38]

39 TABLE 3.12: LONG RUN [2050] DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION VAT/ITC Shares First Quintile (Lowest Income Level) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income Level) 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [39]

40 ELETRIFICAÇÃO TIMES DESCARBONIZAÇÃO CENÁRIOS ANALISADOS REFERÊNCIA Harmonização dos modelos REFERÊNCIA CO2-50% CO2-60% CO2-75% CO2-85% ELC 40 ELC 50 ELC 70 Análise Integrada DECARBONIZATION POLICIES 1 Carbon Taxation 2 Energy Taxation 3 Value Added Tax CARBON TAX RECYCLING POLICIES 4 PERSONAL INCOME TAX 5 Corporate Income Tax 6 Value Added Tax 7 INVESTMENT TAX CREDITS 10 MIXED STRATEGIES: PIT/ITC DGEP Slide [40]

41 TABLE 3.13: LONG RUN [2050] ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS PIT/ITC Shares Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [41]

42 TABLE 3.14: LONG RUN [2050] MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS PIT/ITC Shares GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [42]

43 TABLE 3.15: LONG RUN [2050] DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION PIT/ITC Shares First Quintile (Lowest Income Level) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income Level) 1.0/ / / / / / / / / / / Slide [43]

44 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions Integrative Energy City Planning Policy Support New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation II.4 Impactos macroeconómicos de impostos sobre o carbono com reciclagem das receitas: sumário dos principais resultados ENERGY & CLIMATE CO 2

45 TABLE 4.1: LONG RUN ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS Energy Demand Electricity Demand Electricity Share RES CO2 Emissions Carbon Tax PIT CIT (50/50) VAT ITC (50/50) PIT ITC (50/50) Slide [45]

46 TABLE 4.2: LONG RUN MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS GDP Consumption Investment Employment Public Debt Foreign Debt Carbon Tax PIT CIT (50/50) VAT ITC (50/50) PIT ITC (50/50) Slide [46]

47 TABLE 4.3: LONG RUN DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS EQUIVALENT VARIATION Carbon Tax PIT CIT (50/50) VAT ITC (50/50) PIT ITC (50/50) First Quintile (Lowest Income) Second Quintile Third Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (Highest Income) Slide [47]

48 Consumers Profiles & Energy Efficiency Energy Transitions New Technologies & Low Carbon Practices III Policy Support Conclusão Integrative Energy City Planning Climate Mitigation/ Adaptation ENERGY & CLIMATE CO 2 48

49 MENSAGENS-CHAVE - EQUILÍBRIO GERAL, DGEP 1. The TIMES model counterfactual results provides a wide variety of cost-effective winning strategies to achieve decarbonization 60/50. The DGEP model considers the marginal costs associated with such strategies as a guidepost. 2. The DGEP model results suggest that the economic costs underlying such strategies - implemented as a carbon tax with revenues allocated to deficit reduction - lead to adverse economic and distributive effects. 3. Model results suggest that the economic costs underlying such strategies somewhat limit their effectiveness in reducing emissions. The economic mechanisms in place highlight that reductions in emissions would come primarily from reduced economic activity and secondarily from substitution away from fossil fuels and electrification. 4. Considering alternative instruments for decarbonization, namely an economy-wide energy tax and an increase in value added taxation with revenues also allocated to deficit reduction, would greatly reduce both the adverse economic and distributional effects and the effectiveness of the policy in reducing emissions. 5. The consideration of tax revenue recycling strategies designed to reduce the tax burden at other distortionary margins, in particular when linked to energy efficiency objectives, opens the door to more virtuous economic and distributional effects of the carbon tax. 6. The use of the revenues of the carbon tax to reduce the personal income tax or the value added tax burdens are instrumental in reverting the adverse distributional effects of the carbon tax. In turn, reductions in the corporate income tax or increases in the investment tax credits are instrumental in reverting the adverse economic effects of the carbon tax. In both cases the environmental gains are preserved. 7. Mixed strategies allocating carbon tax revenues evenly between reductions in the personal income tax and the corporate income tax, or evenly between reduction in the VAT and increases in the investment tax credits, or evenly between personal income tax and investment tax credits lead to desirable economic, distributional, and environmental outcomes. Slide [49]