Scenariosfor 2020 as a result of the European Energy and Climate Policy. Francisco Ferreira Portugal. TFIAM35, Bilthoven June 2009

Transcription

1 Scenariosfor 2020 as a result of the European Energy and Climate Policy Francisco Ferreira Portugal 1 TFIAM35, Bilthoven June 2009

2 1. FRAMEWORK Macro-economic scenarios Demand scenarios for energy services and other goods Policy and investment scenarios The model: TIMES_PT Pressupostos e Análises de Sensibilidade 2. RESULTS PRIMARY ENERGY FINAL ENERGY ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION GHG EMISSIONS ETS activities Non-ETS activities ECONOMIC INDICATORS AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO DA PROPOSTA ENERGIA-CLIMA DA CE PARA PORTUGAL 3. EVALUATION OF THE EU ENERGY/CLIMATE PACKAGE IMPACT FOR PORTUGAL

3 FRAMEWORK DPP Stakeholders DGEG CECAC Development model for PT Forecasting of tmacro economic parmeters Demand / Prices of primary energy Endogenous potentials, Characterization of technologies Technological profile, Final energy consumption, GHG emissions (ETS, non- ETS), Carbon indicators Modeling scenario Macro economic scenarios >Tendency >Change Demand scenarios >Tendency >Change >BAU Policy >Kyoto scenarios>renewables Road Map TIMES_PT (energy system) Waste Agriculture & Livestock F- gases Sinks Results

4 Cenários Macro - económicos Tendency > Continuation of the current national economic model in traditional sectors such as tourism > Continuation of urban expansion outside cities Change >Higher GDP growth as an answer to high inovation and in the services provided >Industry growth in innovative areas such as comunications and electronics >Mobility: lower urbanization and intensive investment in urban rehabilitation Millions milhões de of people pessoas População Population % 0.1% 0.03% % -0.1% % Tendencial Tendency Mudança Change PRIMES 10^ PIB GPD % % % % 1.9% % Tendencial Tendency Mudança Change PRIMES

5 Policy and investments scenarios Scenarios por Policies and Investments Emission scenarios for 2020 PNAC 2006: Scenario Business-as-usual Business as Usual PNAC 2006 and new targets 2007: Scenario Kyoto PNAC 2006, new targets 2007 and more renewables KyotoTendency Renewables Road-Map PNAC 2006 and new targets 2007: Scenario Kyoto Kyoto Change

6 Model TIMES_PT International Energy Agency Demand projections end-use energy services & materials Policy constraints restrictions, taxes, subsidies, Oil, coal, gas import prices National primary energy potential Hydro, wind, solar, biomass Primary energy supply: Refinery, imports and renewable energy Electricity generation Transport: road passengers (car short / long distance, bus urban / intercity, moto), road freight, rail (passengers / freight), aviation, navigation Industry: Iron & Steel; Non-Ferrous metals; Chlorine&Ammonia; Other Chemic.; Cement; Lime; Glass: Hollow/Flat; Ceramics; Pulp & Paper; Other Residential: Existing & New - Rural/ Urban /Multi appartment Commercial: Large and Small Agriculture Base year & New energy technologies capacity, availability, efficiency, life, costs, emission factors Minimise total system costs Materials and Energy flows Emissions Optimal combination of energy supply and demand technologies Costs Final energy prices Installed capacity

7 RESULTS: PRIMARY ENERGY Primary Consumo Energy energia Consumption primária (PJ) (PJ) FRE [15%] 100 FRE [13%] 107 FRE [25%] 76 FRE [28%] 79 FRE [34%] BAU QUIT RMap QUIM 76 FRE [31%] 66 tep (En Primária)/ M 2000 Índice 100 = Geotérmica Geothermal Biogás Biogas Resíduos Waste Solar Eólica Wind Hídrica Hydro Biomassa Gás Natural Gas Carvão Coal Prod. Oil Products petrolíferos Intensidade GDP Energy energética Intensity do PIB % -2% -6% 79% 107% 139% -8% 112% Total primary energy (base year 2005) Renewable primary energy (base year 2005)

8 RESULTS: FINAL ENERGY tep (En Final)/ M Final Consumo Energy de Consumption energia final (PJ) Calor Heat Biocombustíveis Biofuels Outras Other renováveis Renewables Biomassa Electricidade Electricity Carvão Coal Gás Gas Produtos Oil Products petrolíferos -100 BAU QUIT RMap QUIM 0 Intensidade Energy Intensity Energética % 14% 14% 4% Total primary energy (base year 2005) 76% 103% 134% 106% Renewable primary energy (base year 2005)

9 RESULTS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION 90 D (%) 2020/ % 50% 63% 51% 50% 50% 63% 51% Production (base year 2005) 80 Electricity Electricidade Generation Gerada (TWh) % 42% 48% 52% 62% 51% BAU QUIT RMAP QUIM Gás Gas Carvão Coal Carvão Coal CSS CCS Produtos Oil Products Petrolíferos Cogeração Cogeneration Outras Other renováveis Renewables Hídrica Hydro Eólica Wind Saldo Net Import importador

10 RESULTS GHG EMISSIONS Non-ETS activities Gg CO2e % -21% -21% 0% 0% 0% 13% -16% -5% -4% -17% -17% 14% 9% 9% -22% -1% 17% -17% -72% % -45% -45% -45% -31% -33% -33% -8% BAU QUI T RMap QUI M Oferta Energy Energia Supply Indústria Industry & e Solv. Transportes Transports Terciário Services Doméstico Domestic F-Gases Agricultura Agriculture Resíduos Waste [% change in emissions by sector between 2005 and 2020) 9

11 RESULTS GHG EMISSIONS ETS Gg CO2e % 109% 0% 0% 109% 62% 48% >1000% >1000% -40% -43% 2% 48% -43% >1000% 3% 0% -39% 103% 0% >1000% 0% -22% -72% 0 BAU QUIT RMap QUI M Centrais Power Plants termoel. Cogeração Cogeneration Química Chemical Cerâmica Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products Ind. Cimento Cement Inst.combustão Combustion Metais Ferrous ferrosos Metals Refinação Refinary Vidro Glass Pasta Pulp & e papel Paper [% change in emissions by sector between 2005 and 2020)

12 RESULTS Economic indicators Var 2020/2000 Indicador Unit PT CE BAU QUIT RMap QUIM CE BAU QUIT RMap QUIM GDP per capita 1000 euros/hab % 35% 35% 46% Final energy per capita tep/hab % 23% 24% 9% GDP energy inten. (final) tep EF/Meuros ' % -9% -9% -25% CO2 emissions per capita tco2/hab % 7% -6% -5% GHG emissions per capita tco2e/hab % 5% -5% -5%

13 RESULTS Economic indicators Private cars and motorcycles (Gpkm) By 2020 PRIMES 97.0 KYOTO Tendency KYOTO Change Net generation capacity (GWe) By 2020 Hydro PRIMES 4.5 BAU 5.6 KYOTO Tendency 6.9 KYOTO Change 6.9 Renew. RMAP 7.7 Wind PRIMES 6.1 BAU 4.5 KYOTO Tendency 5.7 KYOTO Change 5.7 Renew. RMAP 8.6

14 IMPACT OF THE ENERGY-CLIMATE PACKAGE FOR PORTUGAL Renewable final energy [31%] Renewable final energy consumption in 2020 (PJ) BAU QUI T RMap QUIM Electricity Heating and cooling Residential Services Industry Transport Renewable final energy (a) Total final energy (b) % Renewables (a/b) % Renewables (Low hydro) % Renewables (High hydro) % Renewables (Oil $100 bbl)

15 IMPACT OF THE ENERGY-CLIMATE PACKAGE FOR PORTUGAL Non-ETS GHG emissions: Effort-sharing [+1%/2005] % change basis BAU QUIT RMap QUIM ETS Non ETS National total Low hydro ETS Non ETS High hydro ETS Non ETS Oil $100 bbl ETS Non ETS

16 1. Renewables target [31%] is ambitious: scenario Kyoto T gets closer; only RMap with aditional investment and Kyoto C with hgher energy efficiency achieves the target. Negative risk: Low hydro Positive risk: Oil barrel at USD$100 2.Effort-Sharing [+1%/2005]:Both Kyoto scenarios and RMAP achieve the target BUT they require all the aditional measures of the National Climate Change Plan to be implemented up to ETS ceiling[-21%/2005]: It is not possible to achieve the target with reduction only in the electrecity production sector, including less coal use and more renewables (RMap) Other ETS sectors have to make aditional effort beyond the measues already implemented and scheduled

17 AVALIAÇÃO DO IMPACTO DA PROPOSTA ENERGIA-CLIMA DA CE PARA PORTUGAL