Recycling and its energy-economic impacts in Austria

Transcription

1 Recycling and its energy-economic impacts in Austria Ina MEYER, Mark SOMMER IEWT, Vienna, 16 th February 2017

2 Outline Introduction and Objectives of the Study Greening the Economy and Recycling Data and Methology Results Conclusions w.r.t. energy policy 1

3 Introduction and Objectives of the Study Greening the Economy and Recycling Waste management and recycling increase ressource efficiency saves energy and CO 2 emissions Does reycling also contribute to economic growth and job creation? No data available on recycling activities in Austria This study investigates the energy-economic impacts of recyling in Austria as an explorative study for four material groups in 2014: steel, aluminium, glass and paper 2

4 Data (1) Construction of new data sets combining Physical data (Environment Agency Austria) Supply & use of recycling (secondary) materials Trade flows Material flows in production of secondary materials e.g. Electricity, Natural gas in steel recycling kg 3

5 Data (2) Construction of new data sets combining Economic data Monetary flows within the economy Prices of primary and secondary materials e.g. steel & scrap Sources: London Metal Exchange, World Bank, EUWID / kg kg 4

6 Data Example Aluminium Prices and Processes Domestic supply/production 5

7 Data and Methodology (1) Step 1: Linking of economic data sets to macroeconomic model WIFO.DYNK Step 2: Development of scenario 6

8 Data and Methodology (2) Step 1: Linking of economic data sets to macroeconomic model WIFO.DYNK Step 2: Development of scenario / kg kg MODELL DYNK 7

9 Data and Methodology (3) WIFO.DYNK What is the WIFO.DYNK model?: Macroeconomic model Hybrid approach (Input-Output, CGE) Production activity (62 industries & commodities) Consumption (Public, Private, Export, Invest.) Behaviour based on econometric estimations Used for simulations (tax policies, shocks, ) Calculates effects on Value added and employment 8

10 Data and Methodology (4) Development of Scenario Step 1: Linking of economic data sets to macroeconomic model WIFO.DYNK Step 2: Development of scenario Approach: Change the structure of the economy as if NO recycling would take place Based on the collated economic & physical data Not realistic but gives an estimation of the effects of recycling 9

11 Data and Methodology (5) Development of Scenario BASELINE (2014) / kg kg MODELL DYNK Scenario No Recycling MODELL DYNK / kg kg

12 Results Results consist of 6 dimensions 3 x Economic Effect loops reinforcing effects ( multiplier ) 3 x Decompositioned Effects source of effect 11

13 Results 3 Economic Effect loops Direct & indirect (Intermediate production) Euro Effect 0 direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects 12

14 Results 3 Economic Effect loops Direct & indirect (Intermediate production) Induced (Private household consumption) 1000 Euro Effect direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects 13

15 Results 3 Economic Effect loops Direct & indirect (Intermediate production) Induced (Private household consumption) Total effects (Price feedbacks, Labour market, 1000 Euro Effect Public spending, Investment) 0 direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects 14

16 Results 3 Economic Effect loops 3 decompositioned effects Euro 1000 Euro direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects Other Effect Trade 15

17 Results 3 Economic Effect loops 3 decompositioned effects Trade (change in imports/exports) Euro Other Trade 0 direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects 16

18 Results 3 Economic Effect loops 3 decompositioned effects Trade (change in imports/exports) Recycling (change in material flows) 1000 Euro Technology Other Recycling Acitvity Trade 0 direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects 17

19 Results 3 Economic Effect loops 3 decompositioned effects Trade (change in imports/exports) Recycling (change in material flows) Production technology (change in technolog- only steel) 1000 Euro direct & indirect plus induced plus other effects Technology Recycling Acitvity Trade Results display the contribution of recyling activities 18

20 Mio. Results : Steel 800 1st round effects (direct & indirect) 2nd round effects (induced) Total effects (all feedbacks) Recycling & Use of secondary material Prod. Technology Trade of secondary material Recyling (red) positive effect less costly production Production technology (blue) negative less labour intense Trade negative (green) negative net imports 19

21 Mio. Results : Steel st round effects (direct & indirect) 2nd round effects (induced) Total effects (all feedbacks) st round effects (direct & indirect) 2nd round effects (induced) Total effects (all feedbacks) Recycling & Use of secondary material Prod. Technology Employees Recycling & Use of secondary material Prod. Technology Trade of secondary material Trade of secondary material Estimated contribution to GDP : ~0.2 % Employment : ~0.2% CO 2 e Savings : ~ 4.5 M.t 20

22 Mio. Results: Aluminium 800 1st round effects (direct & indirect) 2nd round effects (induced) Total effects (all feedbacks) Recycling & Use of secondary material Trade of secondary material High prices (scrap & prim.alu) lead to significant effects Negative effect due to net imports Est. savings due to secondary production: ~2.7 Mt.CO 2 e 21

23 Mio. Results: Paper 600 1st round effects (direct & indirect) 2nd round effects (induced) Total effects (all feedbacks) Recycling & Use of secondary material Trade of secondary material High quantities (>2.2 Mio.t) lead to significant effect Negative effect due to high imports (1.2 Mio.t) Est. savings due to secondary production: 0.7 Mt.CO 2 e 22

24 Mio. Results: Glass 14 1st round effects (direct & indirect) 2nd round effects (induced) Total effects (all feedbacks) Recycling & Use of secondary material 6 4 Trade of secondary material 2 0 Lowest impact due to low prices materials Only material with net export Estimated Savings of 0.1 Mt CO 2 e 23

25 Results Summary (1) The investigated recycling activities generate up to 0.5 % of the GDP and 0.4 % of the employment in Austria 2014 as well as saves about 8 Mt CO 2 e in emissions (~10 % of AT level) 24

26 Mio.t CO2e Results Summary (2) Two approaches to count emissions Consumption based (global) 70.0 Decrease about 8 Mt CO 2 e ~ 10 % of AUT level Total Glass Paper - Production based (local) Might increase Local production instead of Imports Avoided due to Recyling AUT 2014 Aluminium Iron/Steel 25

27 Conclusions Findings Recycling in Austria contributed substantially to economic growth and job creation Results depend on the prices of primary raw materials in relation to secondary raw materiols Recycling contributes to circular economy which is high on political agendas Recycling reduces CO 2 e domestically and abroad Further research: More resource groups should be evaluated (WEE, plastics, rare earth metals) Adequate instruments (e.g. ressource taxes) should be investigated 26

28 Thank you for your attention! Link to full report: ffizienz/ressourcen_aktivitaeten/wifo-recycling.html 27