Abstract No A Study on Risk Perception toward Nuclear Power Operation in Taiwan

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1 Abstract No. 383 A Study on Risk Perception toward Nuclear Power Operation in Taiwan Ciao-tzu Lee, Shiang-ling Hu, Wushou P. Chang Institute of Public Health, and Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Yang-ming University, Taipei, Taiwan Introduction Since the evolution of nuclear power energy, the effectiveness and its impacts to the environment and the public in a society have both been a continuous debate in the past decades. The Chernobyl accident in 1986 had raised the vivid imagery of nuclear disaster and certainly added to public anxiety and concerns. The real need for nuclear power and its safety issues have been reconsidered overwhelmingly. Many countries have conducted public opinion polls on nuclear power (NP) operation. Besides, many NGOs in different countries organized demonstrations against the nuclear facilities. Recently, follwoing declaration of plans to stop nuclear energy operation in countries like Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark, the new German coalition government has announced in late 1998 its national policy to phase out all nuclear facilities in 1 years. This later has brought up new conflict between economic development and environmental protection in the society. Regardless of these global evlution, the government and power industry company in Taiwan, the Taipower Co., has insisted on its energy policy and planned for the fourth nuclear power plant. Recently, the AEC (the Atomic Energy Council, Taiwan) has given the construction permit of the 4th nuclear power plant and provoked unavoidably social controversies and public debates in Taiwan. Apparently, there are disparities in opinions to nuclear power operation between the power industry and the public. It is essential to develop better mutual communications in the coming future. There have been series of researches on risk perception, management and intervention in different communities and societies worldwide. However, this trend has been significantly neglected in Taiwan during the past 1 years. Particularly, the general or concerned public has been little evaluated for their risk perception toward health risks from nuclear operations. In Taiwan, there were series of studies on risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other environmental hazards by Liu and his colleagues in early 199 (Liu JT, & Smith VK. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 3: ,199). Their studies indicated that the government should understand the public concerns and try to diminish the perception gap between experts and the public. An effective risk-communication system will help to assess the public risk perception and their attitudes, and it must be adjusted and evaluated by public concerns. In order to improve risk management and mutual communications, understanding the risk perception of the public will be essential. This study takes the comparative risk analysis approach to evaluate risk perception toward nuclear power operation in Taiwan society. Methods A pilot study on risk perception toward nuclear power operation and other current risks was conducted in In addition to perception toward nuclear power operation, the survey evaluated several dimensions of health-related or environmental risks including smoking, chemical wastes, nuclear wastes, air transportation, AIDS, and food intoxication. The questionnaire was designed to be proceeded with systematic instruction and followed with self-filling. Every respondent was asked to rank the former 7 risks, and choose a suitable score for each risk on the same scales. We also took the similar scales to identify possible related factors from different risk characteristics, and attempted to assess respondent s trust on experts capabilities or government s expenditure on reducing these risks. In addition, open-ended questions were also included, like respondent s demographics, his (her) intuitive opinion to the risk of smoking (risk of lung cancer), acceptable distance from his (her) house to a nuclear power plant, and respondent s willingness to pay to reduce threats from the nuclear power operation. There were 3 subject invited for this study, including 57 respondents who worked at the Taipei 1

2 Metropolitan Rapid Transportation (the MRT), 13 high school students, and 49 students in one Medical School. Results Among these three, the average age was (the : 39.84, : 18.69, high school students: 16.72), and most of them are male (6.3%). The years of education in average among the MRT respondents was years (see Table 1). According to the respondents How many percent of smokers do you suppose that they will get lung cancer in the future?, the average percent was 44.38%. The trend of their perceived risk indicated that the younger the respondents, the higher the perceived risk. The acceptable distance from a nuclear power plant (mean= km) and respondents willingness to pay to reduce half of the risk from nuclear power operations (mean=9.7 USD) have similar trends. It means that the younger individuals have higher sensitivity to these risks. Concerning opinion to the construction of the 4 th nuclear power plant in Taiwan, there were 18 (68.8%) respondents approve of this policy (Figure 1). Because it is difficult to measure risk perception directly, we compared the risk perception toward nuclear power operation with other risks. It was found that respondents perceived risk toward NP operation was significant higher than those toward smoking, air transportation, and food intoxication (Figure 2-4 ). There were similar trends in comparisons with physical damage, children s (or the next generations ), and psychiatric harms from different risks. The ranking of all risks showed that 42.1% of all respondents thought that the most dangerous risk was AIDS, and 24.6% was nuclear power operation. Furthermore, there was 29.7% of respondents thought that the second most dangerous risk was NP operation, and 23.6% was from chemical waste (Figure 5,6). In order to further analyze the possible factors related to respondents risk perception toward nuclear power operation, we took regression model analysis. The results indicated that all the variables of demographics were not associated with their risk perception toward NP operation. However, the acceptable distance between respondent s house and a nuclear power plant was positively correlated with his (her) risk perception (p=.23; Table 2). We had analyzed the risk characteristics, including level of involuntariness, understanding about the risk, duration of causing damages, size of affected population and experts capabilities and government s spending on reducing the threats from risk. The result showed that the level of involuntariness (p=.), the size of affected people (p=.124), and government s spending (.22) were significant correlated with these respondents risk perception toward nuclear power operation (Table 3). Conclusions There s no clear answer to such questions as How can we make nuclear power safer, or safe enough? and What is the probability of a major nuclear accident?. Based on this pilot study, 68% of respondents supported the construction of the 4 th nuclear power plant in Taiwan. However, perceived risk toward nuclear power operation is significant higher than risk toward cigarette smoking, air transportation, and food intoxication. Furthermore, most of respondents didn t want to live nearby a nuclear power plant. They are willing to pay extra money to reduce the risks from nuclear power operation. They also believed government s spending could better reduce the risk. Those with higher perceived risk toward NP operation tend to regard the risk of NP operation as an involuntary risk, and would affect large population. For further risk communication and risk management, understanding the public risk perception is essential. Acknowledgement We are grateful of the support from the National Science Council, Taiwan, for this study, and Professors Jin-tien Liu of the National Taiwan University, Ying-ying Tsai of Shih-shin University, and Polun Chang of National Yangming University for providing their precious experiences and recommentdations to this study. 2

3 Table 1 Demographics Count Mean S.D. Age (Total) () (University students) (High school students) Years of education() Table 2 Regression analysis for risk perception toward NP operation B Std. Error t P value Constant Distance to a NP operation (km) 4.8E * Willingness to pay (USD) 3.2E Table 3 Regression analysis for risk perception toward NP operation B Std. Error t P value Constant Level of involuntariness ** Understanding about the risk Duration of causing damages 7.9E Size of population affected * Trust on government s spending * Trust on experts capabilities

4 Figure 1 respondent s opinion to the 4 th nuclear power operation 3 2 for against high school students respondent's opinion to the 4th nuclear power plant Figure 2 Comparative risks of physical damages or death to the individual (R1) Figure 3 Comparative risks to individual s children or next generation (R2) 4

5 Figure 4 Comparative risks of psychiatric disturbances (R3) Figure 5 The most ranked risk food intoxication AIDS air transportation nuclear wastes NP operation chemical wastes smoking high school students The most dangerous risk Figure 6 The second most ranked risk smoking NP operation chemical wastes AIDS nuclear wastes food intoxication high school student The second dangerous risk 5