Proposed Multitranche Financing Facility Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Arghandab Integrated Water Resources Development Investment Program

Transcription

1 ` Concept Paper Project Number: November 2016 Proposed Multitranche Financing Facility Islamic Republic of Afghanistan: Arghandab Integrated Water Resources Development Investment Program This document is being disclosed to the public in accordance with ADB's Public Communications Policy 2011.

2 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 15 November 2016) Currency unit = afghani (AF) AF1.00 = $ $1.00 = AF66.81 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank ANR agriculture and natural resources DABS Da Afghanistan Breshna Shekat lpcd liters per capita per day MEW Ministry of Energy and Water MFF multitranche financing facility PIO project implementation office PPTA project preparation technical assistance RRP report and recommendation of the President SBA subbasin agency USAID United States Agency for International Development TA technical assistance NOTE In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. Vice-President W. Zhang, Operations 1 Director General S. O Sullivan, Central and West Asia Department (CWRD) Director Country Director A. Siddiq, Environment, Agriculture and Natural Resources, CWRD T. Panella, Afghanistan Resident Mission (AFRM), CWRD Team leader Team members Peer reviewer H. Woldring, Senior Water Resources Specialist, CWRD L. Abenojar, Senior Operations Assistant, CWRD A. Aleem, Senior Energy Specialist, CWRD M. H. Ayubi, Senior Project Officer (Natural Resources and Agriculture), AFRM B. Debnath, Principal Social Development Specialist (Safeguards), CWRD N. Djenchuraev, Senior Environment Specialist, CWRD C. Ellerman, Climate Change Specialist, SDCC R. Gul, Economics Officer, AFRM, CWRD J. Ngai, Senior Counsel, Office of the General Counsel D. Pham Financial Management Specialist, CWRD M. Rafi Yousofzai, Associate Safeguards Officer, AFRM, CWRD M. Rattinger, Climate Change Specialist, SDCC N. Rive, Climate Change Specialist, CWRD M. A. Rosero, Social and Gender Specialist, CWRD C. Tiangco, Energy Specialist, CWRD F. Radstake, Principal Environment Specialist, East Asia Department

3 THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM AT A GLANCE CONTENTS Page I. THE PROJECT 1 A. Rationale 1 B. Impact, Outcome, and Outputs 3 C. Investment and Financing Plan 3 D. Indicative Implementation Arrangements 4 II. DUE DILIGENCE REQUIRED 5 III. PROCESSING PLAN 7 A. Risk Categorization 7 B. Resource Requirements 7 C. Processing Schedule 7 IV. KEY ISSUES 7 APPENDIXES 1. DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK FOR THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM 8 2. PROBLEM TREE PROJECT PREPARATORY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE INITIAL POVERTY AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS 21

4 INVESTMENT PROGRAM a AT A GLANCE Project Classification Information Status: Complete 1. Basic Data Project Number: Project Name MFF: Arghandab Integrated Water Resources Department CWRD/CWER Development Investment Program /Division Country Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Executing Agency Ministry of Finance Borrower Government of the Islamic Reublic of Afghanistan 2. Sector Subsector(s) ADB Financing ($ million) Agriculture, natural Irrigation resources and rural Water-based natural resources management development Water and other urban Urban water supply 5.00 infrastructure and services Total Strategic Agenda Subcomponents Climate Change Information Inclusive economic growth Pillar 2: Access to economic opportunities, Adaptation ($ million) (IEG) including jobs, made more inclusive Mitigation ($ million) Environmentally Global and regional transboundary environmental CO 2 reduction (tons per annum) 36,000 sustainable growth (ESG) concerns Climate Change impact on the Project High 4. Drivers of Change Components Gender Equity and Mainstreaming Governance and capacity development (GCD) Institutional development Organizational development Some gender elements (SGE) Partnerships (PAR) Bilateral institutions (not client government) Official cofinancing 5. Poverty and SDG Targeting Location Impact Geographic Targeting No Rural Household Targeting No Urban SDG Targeting Yes SDG Goals SDG2, SDG6, SDG7 High Low.. 6. Risk Categorization: Complex 7. Safeguards Categorization [Tranche 1] Environment: A Involuntary Resettlement: A Indigenous Peoples: C 8. Financing Modality and Indicative Tranches ($million) Amount Sources I II III IV ($million) ADB Sovereign MFF-Tranche (Grant): Asian Development Fund Cofinancing Afghanistan Infrastructure Trust Fund - Grant Counterpart Government Total Effective Development Cooperation Use of country procurement systems Use of country public financial management systems No No Source: Asian Development Bank This document must only be generated in eops. Generated Date: 21-Nov :04:24 AM

5 10. Country Operations Business Plan CPS COBP INVESTMENT PROGRAM a AT A GLANCE cps-afg pdf /cobp-afg pdf 11. Investment Program Summary Impact: Impact the Program is Aligned With: Increased jobs and gross domestic product growth as outlined in the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework, Outcome: Improved management and use of water resources in the Arghandab River basin Outputs: (i)dahla Dam optimized, (ii)hydropower powerhouse installed and transmission lines completed, (iii)main urban water supply to Kandahar city completed, (iv)reliability of irrigation water supply increased, and (v)stakeholder capacity in water resource management and use strengthened Implementation Arrangements: Ministry of Finance will be the executing agency. Project Readiness: A PPTA will be used to prepare the project. For Tranche One, which will include raising Dahla Dam by 8 meters, the PPTA will build on extensive reports that have been prepared under earlier engineering, irrigation, social, environment, hydrological and geotechnical studies funded by other donors. This will enable PPTA team to confirm the design of the overall MFF and Tranche One within the planned 12 month PPTA duration. That said, the complexity of project preparation is significant, hence the PPTA has substantial resourcing. Procurement packages will be prepared during the PPTA. 12. Milestones Modality Estimated Approval Estimated Completion b Multitranche financing facility 23 April December 2026 Tranche I 30 April December 2018 Tranche II 20 May December 2026 Tranche III 30 December December 2026 Tranche IV 30 December December Project Data Sheet (PDS) PDS c Not posted yet a Multitranche Financing Facility (MFF). b For MFF, this refers to the end of the availability period; for tranches, this refers to the tranche closing date. c Safeguard documents can be viewed by clicking the Document's hyperlink in the Project Data Sheet (PDS) page. Source: Asian Development Bank This document must only be generated in eops. Generated Date: 21-Nov :04:24 AM

6 I. THE PROJECT A. Rationale 1. The proposed Arghandab Integrated Water Resources Development Investment Program multitranche financing facility (MFF) will finance improvements to the availability and use of water resources for irrigated agriculture, urban water supply, and power generation for Kandahar, the country s second largest city, and its vicinity. The program located in the Arghandab River subbasin, a major tributary of the Helmand River system will also make the management of these water resources more efficient. The availability of water in the subbasin, along with the rest of Afghanistan, is highly seasonal and erratic, with frequent and worsening droughts affecting agriculture, living standards, and the local economy. The water supply for Kandahar city as well as irrigated agriculture for over 64,000 hectares of farmlands in the Kandahar vicinity is solely dependent on Dahla Dam, built in 1953, which stores irregular runoffs from snowmelt in high mountains. The dam s reservoir, however, has lost a third of its storage capacity to sedimentation over 64 years of continuous operations, and its ability to provide regulated flows during frequent droughts is seriously constrained. 2. Promoting stability and growth in Kandahar province is a high priority for the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (government). But the potential for socioeconomic development in the province is severely impeded by lack of access to sustained and reliable water, and chronic power shortage. Enough water would be available to address these issues if this precious resource was managed efficiently, however the ability of the government and provincial authorities to do this is severely constrained by the diminishing storage in Dahla Dam reservoir; lack of institutional and human capacity in water sector institutions, inadequate infrastructure for irrigation, water supply, and power, and an underdeveloped private sector that impairs the financial performance of public agencies in managing infrastructure. The proposed investment program will provide a long-term sustainable solution to these problems. 3. Strategic context. Given the large number of development partners and limited institutional capacity, the government and Asian Development Bank (ADB) agreed that ADB s assistance would be focused on the infrastructure investments in agriculture and natural resources (ANR) management, energy, and transport and communications. As of 31 October 2016, ADB investment to Afghanistan s ANR sector amounted to $466 million, or 15.6% of ADB s total investment in the country. During country partnership strategy, , the performance of ADB s Afghanistan portfolio was above the ADB average despite vast implementation challenges, and the performance of ANR sector projects were generally satisfactory. The government puts a high priority on the proposed investment program. 4. Policy framework, sector strategy, and roadmap. The proposed MFF is aligned with the goals, strategies and investment roadmap of the Helmand River Basin Master Plan 1 and the Kandahar City Master Plan, 2 both of which aim at socio economic development of the region through efficient use of water resources. The MFF aligns closely with the government s policy 1 ADB Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors: Proposed Water Resources Development Investment Program (G0170-AFG, funded by the Department for International Development the Helmand River Basin Water Resources Master Plan in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan). Manila. 2 Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Urban Development Affairs Kandahar City Master Plan (2011). Kabul.

7 2 on economic growth and job creation, as set out in the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework, (section 5.5), 3 through the provision of a comprehensive agricultural development program. This aims to expand the irrigated agriculture area and provide reliable power and potable water. The Water Law of Afghanistan (April 2009) regulates ownership, fees, rights, permits, and usage with respect to water, stipulating its purpose to enforce, among others, the efficient and sustainable use of water resources. Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) is responsible for integrated water resources management (IWRM). The policy framework for integrated water resources management is still emerging, but developing the implementation arrangements as well as the capacity (both human and technical) especially at the provincial and regional level to realize the policies pose a long-term challenge. The proposed MFF is aligned with the Afghanistan Interim Country Partnership Strategy ( ) 4 and is included in the Country Operations Business Plan ( ) Justification for using an MFF. The MFF will finance large, stand-alone projects that are closely related, sequentially constructed, and have long-term implementation plans. Limited implementation capacity of sector institutions at the provincial level, and the need to gradually develop adequate policy and institutional framework for IWRM necessitate the implementation of the proposed program investment through MFF. The proposed MFF would allow ADB s longterm engagement, as well as its pledge for large financing, both of which are crucial for the close and sustained engagement of the state and provincial authorities in the successful implementation of the investment program, including the development of the crucial multi-sector water resources management capacity and institutional framework. ADB s strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States 6 places strong emphasis on appropriate implementation arrangements. Because of the extensive delays that can be encountered with consultant recruitment, and limitations to the capacity of implementing agencies, there are efficiency gains from recruiting program supervision consultants, reducing implementation risks. The necessary MFF constituents of the strategic context, road map, investment program, and policy framework are in place. Given the proposed program and country context, an MFF is the appropriate modality. The financing for tranche 1 of the facility from ADB and the government is identified. Table 1 shows a comparison of the MFF and alternative modalities. The project modality will be examined during the project preparation period. Table 1: Comparison of Financing Modality Issues Policy and institutional framework for IWRM Comparison MFF Project Loan/Grant Allows the development of Individually prepared projects multi-sector institutional would separate the sector framework for IWRM under institutions from a coherent the first tranche, and keep institutional development concerned sector framework, making development institutions engaged for and implementation of IWRM capacity building and policy impossible. implementation in a Remarks MFF modality is preferred. 3 Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework ( ). Kabul. 4 ADB Interim Country Partnership Strategy: Afghanistan, Manila. A new CPS is expected to be approved in Country Operational Business Plan: Afghanistan, Manila. 6 ADB Operational plan for enhancing adb s effectiveness in fragile and conflict-affected situations. Manila.

8 3 Issues Comparison Remarks coherent manner through a long-term ADB engagement. Economic justification Multiple projects need to be financed within an overall provincial development program. The development program is sequential in nature. Significant financing resources outside the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the government are required. Central government wants to demonstrate substantive commitment to Afghanistan s regions amid a complex political and interrelated security environment. The economic benefits for improved management and use of Arghandab water derive from a holistic approach to the problem, not a single investment Allows ADB to provide assistance programmatically aligned with the long-term needs of the client. Allows ADB to align financing with project readiness providing predictability and continuity to the client. Broadens the possibility of identifying cofinancing options in the subsequent tranches. Signals to the Kandahar region the program pipeline and overall direction from the central government. ADB = Asian Development Bank, MFF = multitranche financing facility. B. Impact, Outcome, and Outputs Individual projects will have a lower economic return, and may be difficult to justify on their own Without ADB s pledge for a large financing, the province would have difficulty ensuring the continued allocation of development resources in the planned duration, reducing the efficiency of the overall investment. Intervals and sequencing of the individual project proposals are subject to various financial and administrative conditions, prompting delays and/or reduction in the overall program. A final financing plan is required before Board consideration of a project loan/grant, limiting the opportunities to identify and confirm potential cofinancing. Breaking the investment program into two or more project grants will lessen the commitment and political and peace dividend. MFF modality preferred MFF modality preferred MFF modality preferred MFF modality preferred MFF modality preferred 6. Program impacts are aligned with increased jobs and gross domestic product growth as outlined in the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework, The investment program s envisaged outcome will be improved management and use of water resources in the Arghandab River basin. The physical outputs will be (i) Dahla Dam optimized, including raising the dam wall by 8 meters, an increase of 84% in storage capacity, (ii) hydropower powerhouse installed and transmission lines completed, (iii) main urban water supply to Kandahar city of 35 km completed, and (iv) reliability of irrigation water supply increased. The nonphysical output will be stakeholder capacity in water resource management and use strengthened. C. Investment and Financing Plan 7. The total investment cost, including detailed engineering studies and recurrent costs during program implementation, is tentatively estimated at $460 million and to be implemented from 2018 to Tranche 1 of four expected tranches includes raising Dahla Dam s height by 8 meters at an estimated cost of $215 million (excluding government contribution). Tranche 2

9 4 includes installing 24 megawatt capacity of hydropower turbines and 35 kilometers of distribution lines at an estimated to cost $42 million (excluding government contribution). Because the MFF has strong climate change mitigation and adaptation elements, an application to the Green Climate Fund for grant cofinancing, to be administered by ADB, will be pursued. The tentative financing plan is shown in Table 2. Table 2: Investment Program and Tentative Financing Plan ($ million) Tranche Item Amount ADB a Cofinancing b Government 1 Raising Dahla Dam Physical Nonphysical c Hydropower 51.5 Powerhouse Distribution lines Nonphysical Urban Water Supply km supply pipeline Nonphysical Irrigation Rehabilitation 93.5 Civil works Nonphysical Total ( ) ADB = Asian Development Bank, km=kilometer a Special Funds Resources (Grant). b Not yet confirmed. c Nonphysical: ADB and cofinancing resources are for project management, capacity building, security and land acquisition, and resettlement. Government resources are for taxes and duties counterpart staff, office accommodation and supplies. Source: Asian Development Bank and consultant estimates. D. Indicative Implementation Arrangements 8. The Ministry of Finance will be the executing agency. The program will have multiple implementing agencies, including the Ministry of Energy and Water, Afghanistan Urban Water Supply and Sewerage Corporation; Da Afghanistan Breshna Shekat, Afghanistan s national power utility; the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock; and the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development. A program steering committee will be established to coordinate program implementation. 9. Most of the investment cost will be for contracts for civil works and goods. Procurement will be done according to ADB Procurement Guidelines (2015, as amended from time to time). The program will also require a team of international and national consultants for program implementation and management assistance, and for due diligence and the detailed design of successive tranches. The consultants will be recruited following ADB Guidelines on the Use of Consultants (2013, as amended from time to time) using quality- and cost-based selection

10 5 methods with a 90:10 quality/cost weighting because of the program s technically complex nature. As an advanced action, the Ministry of Energy and Water will issue the request proposal for the grant supervision consultant. 10. A project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA) consultant will conduct due diligence on the tranche 1 project so that it is procurement ready. The preparation of later tranches will be funded by the MFF. The government has been advised that approval of the PPTA does not commit ADB to financing the ensuing MFF. II. DUE DILIGENCE REQUIRED 11. To further refine the investment proposal, PPTA is proposed. PPTA consultant will undertake the following due diligence: (i) Technical. Existing civil works designs and associated geotechnical studies for raising Dahla Dam will be reviewed. Hydrological studies will be carried out to determine dependable river flows entering the Dahla reservoir; a sediment study to determine the available storage volume over the projected economic life of the reservoir will also be done. Consultations will be held with multiple water user authorities and stakeholders to develop an integrated water resources management plan that will optimize the use and allocation of the reservoir water using the agreed prioritization of water uses (urban water supply, hydropower generation, irrigation). Dependable flows, assuming likely droughts and progressive sedimentation in the reservoir over the dam s economic life, will be determined for each type of water use. Feasibility studies for hydropower generation, municipal water supply to Kandahar city, and irrigation improvement and expansion will be carried out. This will be done together institutional and capacity development plans to address persistent gaps in the institutional framework and capacity to maintain and manage assets in which the program invests. For irrigation improvement, consultations will be held with water users and other stakeholders to identify the physical and institutional measures required for the effective and equitable distribution of irrigation water, and to determine investment requirements. For municipal water supply, a comparative study will be conducted to identify and evaluate available options to convey bulk water to Kandahar. (ii) Economic and financial. A comprehensive economic and financial analysis will be carried out for the entire MFF based on ADB guidelines for the economic analysis of investment projects. This will cover raising Dahla Dam s height by 8 meters and modifications of appurtenant structures, irrigation rehabilitation and development, and hydropower and municipal water supply components. Demand projections and a supply gap analysis will be carried out for hydropower and water supply. (iii) Governance. The institutional and policy framework, as well as the capacity of agency staff, will be assessed against the likely levels of competencies required for the sustained and equitable operations of water supply, power distribution, and irrigation water management facilities. A comprehensive capacity development plan will also be developed. A key to ensure efficient management and use of water resources in the Arghandab subbasin lies in the management of the increased reservoir storage made possible by raising the dam height. The PPTA will prepare a risk assessment and risk management plan covering the thematic areas of public financial management,

11 6 procurement, and corruption; and study and develop an integrated reservoir operational framework, together with coordination and conflict resolution mechanisms. The Central and West Asia Department s recommendations for enhanced project delivery in Afghanistan 7 will be considered to reduce implementation risks and delays. (iv) Poverty and social. A poverty and social assessment will be carried out to identify constraints to the fair and equitable access to services (water supply, electricity, and irrigation water), particularly for the poor and migrants who live in and around Kandahar city. Physical and institutional measures to address these constraints will be formulated as part of the program design. A gender analysis of the potential households of recipients households, as well as the capacity development needs of water management bodies, will be considered. (v) Safeguards. Raising Dahla Dam s height by 8 meters will increase the reservoir area. It is estimated about 940 buildings in 19 villages will be affected, as well as several hectares of irrigable land surrounding the reservoir. Estimates vary on the number of people who will be displaced, but are reported to be 1,600 3,400. Approximately 1,410 hectares will be acquired. The first tranche is proposed to be classified as category A for the involuntary resettlement and environmental safeguards. Along with a Land Acquisition and Resettlement Framework, a Land Acquisition and Resettlement Plan will be prepared for the first tranche. Environmental impacts will be carefully assessed, particularly transboundary water and the impacts of irrigation system rehabilitation and improvements to ground water and soil salinity. PPTA will prepare an Environmental Assessment and Review Framework and an Environmental Impact Assessment will be prepared for tranche 1. Afghanistan has no communities of indigenous peoples as defined in ADB s Safeguard Policy Statement for operational purposes. It is proposed to classify tranche 1 as category C for the indigenous peoples safeguard. The PPTA will also examine the scope and costs of necessary hydrological and groundwater monitoring systems to manage water resources information, including river flows, diversion, groundwater level, and quality. (vi) Climate change. Likely impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of droughts, river flows, irrigation water demands, and other key water resources parameters will be analyzed according to appropriate climate change scenarios. Climate proofing measures will be identified for possible inclusion in the program s scope. The program has significant investments that are a rational mitigation and adaptation response to climate change, and these will be evaluated during the PPTA. (vii) Security. Although there were no major security incidents in the rehabilitation of inlet works at the 2015-completed Dahla Dam, 8 the security situation in and around the program area remains fragile and fluid. The program will involve local communities through community elders in all processes of preparation and implementation, including employment in the construction works. Restoring the water resources in the Arghandab subbasin, and thereby addressing an acute water shortage in the area, is widely seen by communities in the area as being the highest priority to improving their living standards. This widely shared desire for the program, and the planned involvement of and 7 ADB Afghanistan: Enhanced Project Delivery Approach Paper. Manila. 8 Undertaken in 2014 and 2015 with financial assistance from USAID.

12 7 consultation with the local communities, should reduce the security risks. However, those losing land and property are not the same communities as those likely to benefit from the program. A security risk management system will be developed during the PPTA, which will be updated throughout the program preparation and implementation. III. PROCESSING PLAN A. Risk Categorization 12. Tranche 1 of the program is categorized as complex under ADB s streamlined business process. The safeguard categorization of the program will be category A for involuntary resettlement and environment, and category C for indigenous peoples. B. Resource Requirements 13. A total of 11.5 staff person months will be required for processing the MFF and tranche 1 as follows: (i) mission leader/water resources specialist for 6.0 person months; (ii) project officer 2.0 person months; (iii) social development specialist, including for gender, 1.5 person months; (iv) environmental specialist one person-month; and (v) project counsel one person month. In addition, about 25 person days of staff consultants (water resources specialist and economist) will be required to assist the mission leader. PPTA is estimated to cost $2.1 million. The cost estimates and financing plan is in Appendix 3. C. Processing Schedule 14. The processing schedule is outlined in Table 3. Table 3: Proposed Processing Schedule Milestones Expected Completion Concept clearance November 2016 PPTA approval November 2016 Consultant mobilization March 2017 Grant fact finding November 2017 Management review meeting March 2018 MFF approval May 2018 Grant effectiveness August 2018 Investment program completion December 2026 MFF = multitranche financing facility, PPTA = project preparatory technical assistance. IV. KEY ISSUES 15. Although security is a key concern, recent ADB experience shows that consultants and contractors are interested in delivering services, albeit at a higher cost compared to other regional countries. Afghanistan s security conditions are incorporated in cost estimates. 16. The Green Climate Fund has indicated interest in cofinancing the program. An indicative amount of $200 million has been discussed, and USAID has indicated its interest to cofinance the urban water supply component.

13 8 Appendix 1 PRELIMINARY DESIGN AND MONITORING FRAMEWORK FOR THE INVESTMENT PROGRAM Impact the Program is Aligned With: Increased jobs and gross domestic product growth as outlined in the Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework, a Results Chain Performance Indicators with Targets and Baselines b Data Sources and Reporting Risks Outcome Improved management and use of water resources in the Arghandab River basin a. Low carbon electricity to Kandahar city increased to 90,000 megawatt-hour a year by (baseline 2016: 0) b. Access to safe drinking water in Kandahar city improved to 50% coverage and 40 liters per person per year by 2024 (baseline 2016: 20% coverage, less than 20 liters per person per year) a. Business reports of DABS b. Business reports of Afghanistan Urban Water Supply and Sewerage Corporation or any other entity that runs the water supply system in Kandahar Revenue not sufficient for O&M financing Climate change, severe droughts and/or increased sediment inflows reduces the live storage of the reservoir c. Irrigated wheat productivity increased to 0.8 kilogram per cubic meter (kg/cum) by 2026 (baseline 2016: 0.5 kg/cum) c. Monitoring reports of DAIL of Helmand province. d. Irrigated wheat yield increased to 3 tonne/ha by 2026 (baseline 2016: 2 tonne/ha) d. Monitoring reports of DAIL of Helmand province. Outputs 1. Dahla Dam optimized 1a. Dahla Dam raised to 58 meters by 2022 (baseline 2016: 50 meters) 1a. Completion certificate and completion report Security conditions affect project implementation or subsequent operations 1b. Arghandab SBA operating Dahla Dam in accordance with rule curves and operating guidelines 100% of the time by 2022 (baseline 2016: 0) 1b. SBA monthly dam operation reports People may be negatively affected by involuntary land acquisition and resettlement 2. Hydropower powerhouse installed and transmission lines completed 2. Three 8-megawatt turbines installed at Dahla Dam and connected by a 35 kilometer medium-voltage line to Kandahar city power grid by (baseline 2016: 0) 2. Completion certificate and PIO quarterly reports Allocation of water for water supply, electricity, and irrigation is challenged

14 Appendix 1 9 Results Chain 3. Main urban water supply to Kandahar city completed Performance Indicators with Targets and Baselines b 3. Kandahar city connected to Dahla Dam providing 12 megaliter per day (mgl/day bulk water by 2024 (baseline 2016: 0 mgl/day) Data Sources and Reporting 3. Completion certificate and PIO quarterly reports Risks Conflicts arise over the allocation of irrigation water among the water users 4. Reliability of irrigation water supply increased 4a. Water delivered in a timely manner to 95% of farmers 90% of the time by (baseline 2016: 95% of farmers 25% of the time) 4a. Completion certificate and PIO quarterly reports Irrigation systems are not maintained 4b. Irrigation area increased to 75,000 hectares by 2025 (baseline 2016: 62,000 hectares) 4b. Monitoring reports of DAIL of Helmand province 5. Stakeholder capacity in water resource management and use strengthened 5a. All key Arghandab SBA staff, including all women, trained in integrated water resource management and reservoir operations by b. Helmand DABS staff, including all women, strengthened and capable for operation and maintenance (O&M) of electrical power generation and distribution systems by a d. PIO quarterly reports Transfer of trained staff, inadequate and/or inefficient organizational structure, lack of staff incentives 5c. Staff of the Arghandab SBA, mirabs (water bailiffs) and key members of irrigation and water user associations, including all women, trained and capable to collectively share and manage water allocation by d. 300 farmers, including 30% women, have improved skills in irrigated agricultural production by attending 36 training schools by 2025 Key Activities with Milestones 1. Raising Dahla Dam s height (Tranche 1) 1.1 Bidding documents issued for procurement and consulting packages by February Contractor and project supervision consultant mobilized by the fourth quarter (Q4) of Construction completed by Q4 2022

15 10 Appendix 1 2. Power generation (Tranche 2) 2.1 Complete tranche 2 implementation by Q Kandahar water supply (Tranche 3) 3.1 Complete tranche 3 implementation by Q Irrigation system rehabilitation (Tranche 4) 4.1 Complete tranche 4 implementation by Q Capacity building 5.1 Relevant policy and institutional reviews completed by Q Institutional framework for integrated (multisector) reservoir operation, including water allocation, developed and agreed by all stakeholders by Q Key staff of Arghandab SBA, including all women, and other key members of stakeholders trained on reservoir operations by Q Key DABS staff, including all women, trained for asset and O&M management of electric power generation and distribution systems by Q Key staff of Kandahar Afghanistan Urban Water Supply and Sewerage Corporation, including all women, trained for asset and O&M management of water supply system by Q Key staff of provincial Department of Energy and Water, and the Department of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, including all women, trained for irrigation water management; mirabs and key members of water user associations, comprising at least 30% women, trained in irrigation water management, conflict resolution, and irrigated agriculture by Q Key staff of the Arghandab SBA, including all women, trained in irrigation management, including conflict resolution among water users, and assessment and collection of irrigation service fees by Q Training of mirabs and irrigation farmers, comprising not less than 30% women, in the formation and management of water user associations and irrigation associations by Q Training of farmers, comprising not less than 30% women, to improve farm productivity by Q Inputs ADB (Asian Development Fund grant): $220 million Government: $40 million Cofinacing: $200 million (not yet secured) Abbreviations: cum=cubic meter, DABS=Da Afghanistan Breshna Shekat, DAIL=Department of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock, O&M=operation and maintenance, PIO=project implementation office SBA=subbasin agency. a Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Afghanistan National Peace and Development Framework, b Targets and baseline information will be estimated and confirmed during the project preparation technical assistance implementation. Source: Asian Development Bank.

16 PROBLEM TREE Appendix 2 11

17 12 Appendix 3 A. Justification PROJECT PREPARATORY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE 1. Project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA) is needed to help the government and Asian Development Bank (ADB) make an informed decision on the possible investment for the Arghandab water resources development and associated water supply and electrification investment for Kandahar city and vicinity, and for the irrigation modernization investment in the Arghandab subriver basin. B. Major Outputs and Activities 2. A team of consultants will be engaged to carry out the PPTA. The major outputs and activities are summarized in Table A3.1. Table A3.1: Summary of Major Outputs and Activities Activities Major Outputs Activities Develop detailed work plan: Mobilize team members; establish working relationship with government agencies and Asian Development Bank; review United States Army Corps of Engineers study and other related reports, and recommend the dam design approach that allows the most efficient use of technical assistance (TA) resources; update and develop a detailed work plan and TA resource allocation. Carry out hydrological and sedimentation study: Assess the adequacy and accuracy of the available weather, hydrological, and other engineering data; develop a precipitation/snowmelt-runoff simulation model and carry out drought frequency analysis; develop depth-storage capacity curves over the program life; develop a reservoir simulation model and determine dependable flows. Water allocation options study: Analyze water use in the subbasin, and estimate future water demands; carry out beneficiary consultation; develop water allocation options (irrigation water supply); develop and run a reservoir simulation model and determine the flows available for hydropower generation. Arghandab Integrated Water Resources Management Plan: Review the existing institutional framework and policies; carry out stakeholder consultation, and identify water allocation options; develop an institutional framework to manage water allocation, including necessary institutions and capacity development plan; submit the findings and recommendations. Detailed engineering design of dam raising: Prepare detailed due diligence of the design study on raising dam body by 8 meters, spillways, and other appurtenant facilities; prepare construction plan; assess environmental impacts and develop environmental management plan; develop land acquisition and resettlement plan. Inception report May 2017 Hydrological and sedimentation study report Arghandab water use and priority options report Arghandab Integrated Water Resources Management Plan Due diligence report of preexisting design study and all safeguards reports July 2017 July 2017 August 2017 January 2018

18 Appendix 3 13 Activities Major Outputs Activities Feasibility study for tranche 2: Dahla Dam hydroelectric power development: Develop hydroelectric power generation plan, and prepare a feasibility-level design of hydropower plant and power transmission to Kandahar city; carry out environmental assessment study and prepare environmental management plan; determine the involuntary resettlement plan, and prepare a land acquisition and resettlement plan. Identify and analyze program risks and prepare a risk management plan; propose program implementation arrangements; estimate financial, economic, and social benefits, and climate change mitigation impacts; carry out financial and economic analysis, including financial management assessment of the implementing agency. Feasibility study report for tranche 2 Hard copy 15 sets E-copy PDF December 2017 Feasibility study for tranche 3: Kandahar municipal and industrial water supply: Assess the status of water supply services; prepare a feasibility-level design of Kandahar s water supply system, and carry out least-cost analysis; assess environmental impacts and prepare environmental management plan; identify land acquisition and involuntary resettlement impacts, and prepare a land acquisition and resettlement plan; carry out public consultations; prepare a gender analysis and gender action plan. Assess the agency s financial management capacity; identify and analyze risks associated with the program and prepare a risk management plan; propose comprehensive program implementation arrangements. Identify the program s benefits, and carry out comprehensive financial and economic analysis, including financial management assessment of the implementing agency. Feasibility study for tranche 4: Arghandab irrigation development: Analyze farming practices, identifying constraints and opportunities; review the status of the irrigation facilities, and identify needed improvements; prepare a feasibility-level design of irrigation system modernization. Review relevant institutional and policy framework, capacity of Arghandab subbasin agency, and water user groups, and propose an institutional and capacity strengthening program; assess agency s financial management capacity; identify and analyze risks associated with the program; prepare a risk management plan. Prepare a gender analysis and gender action plan. Feasibility study report for tranche 3 Hard copy 15 sets E-copy PDF Feasibility study report for tranche 4 Hard copy 15 sets E-copy PDF December 2017 December 2017

19 14 Appendix 3 Activities Major Outputs Activities Assess environmental impacts and prepare environmental management plan; identify the scope of land acquisition and involuntary resettlement, and prepare a land acquisition and resettlement plan. Propose program implementation arrangements; and carry out comprehensive financial and economic analysis, including financial management assessment of the implementing agency. Program implementation management plan for tranche: Identify major risks associated with the implementation of tranche 1, and propose measures to manage such risks; develop tranche 1 implementation management framework, including the tranche 1 consultants to support program implementation and preparation of tranche 2 proposal. Program appraisal and procurement documents: Prepare a procurement plan; prepare bid documents; prepare a draft report and recommendation of the President (RRP) with relevant appendixes, a sector assessment, and the facility administration manual. Editing of draft project appraisal and procurement documents. Tranche 1 implementation plan Draft of procurement documents, RRP and Facility Administration Manual Hard copy 5 sets E-copy PDF Final report of procurement documents, RRP, and Facility Administration Manual Hard copy 5 sets E-copy PDF December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 C. Cost Estimate and Proposed Financing Arrangement 3. The technical assistance is estimated to cost $2.1 million equivalent, to be financed on a grant basis by ADB (Technical Assistance Special Fund-V $100,000) and the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction ($2.0 million), with funds from the latter being front loaded. The Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (Government) will provide support in the form of counterpart staff, office and housing accommodation, and other essential in-kind contributions. The detailed cost estimate is provided in Table A3.2. Table A3.2: Cost Estimate and Financing Plan Item Amount ($, thousands) Asian Development Bank a 1. Consultants 1,761 a. Remuneration and per diem (i) International consultants 1,353 (ii) National consultants 311

20 Appendix 3 15 Item Amount ($, thousands) b. International and local travel 94 c. Reports and communication 4 2. Equipment b Workshops c Survey Vehicle rental d TA administration and support cost (including security) Representative for contract negotiations 0 8. Contingencies 39 TOTAL 2,100 TA = technical assistance. a Financed by the Japan Fund for Poverty Reduction (JFPR) ($2 million) and the Asian Development Bank's Technical Assistance Special Fund ($100,000). JFPR funds will be front loaded. The government contribution is estimated to account for 5% of the total TA cost. b Equipment Type Quantity Cost ($) 6 computers ,000 2 printer/scanners 500 1,000 c Workshops, training, seminars, and conferences Purpose Venue Stakeholder consultation, 10 persons Kabul 1 day x 3 10,000 Stakeholder consultation, 30 persons (JFPR resources will not be used for workshop travel costs for civil servants) Kandahar 1 day x 5 40,000 Vehicle Rental of one armored vehicle for 12 months 120,000 d V. CONSULTING SERVICES 4. A team of international and national consultants will be recruited following ADB Guidelines on the Use of Consultants (2013, as amended from time to time). The deliverables of the key consultants are linked to the detailed outputs and activities defined in the performance terms of reference; these are summarized in table A.3.1. Key experts are shown in Table A3.3. Table A3.3: Summary of Key Consulting Positions and Estimated Person Months Required Person months International Water resources specialist/ team leader 9 Hydrologist 3 Dam engineer 2 Hydraulic engineer 2 Irrigation engineer 2 Irrigated agriculture specialist 2 Water supply specialist 3 Power specialist 2 Financial management specialist Economist 2 3 National Water resources specialist/deputy team leader 9 Security management specialist 9 Total 48

21 16 Appendix 3 5. Water resources specialist/team leader (international) should meet the following qualifications: demonstrated competency in managing a multidisciplinary team of consultants and liaising with the clients and funding agencies; experience as a team leader for the planning, design, and/or implantation of complex natural resources development projects on at least three separate occasions; regional experience preferable, and professional experience of at least 15 years as water resources specialist/hydrologist or similar related positions. 6. Water resources specialist/deputy team leader (national) should meet the following minimum qualifications: demonstrated competency in managing a multidisciplinary team of consultants and liaising with the clients and funding agencies, experience as a team leader or deputy team leader for water resources development/management projects on at least three separate occasions, experience in Afghanistan, and professional experience of at least 15 years as water resources specialist/hydrologist or similar related position. 7. Water resources specialist (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: engineering degree in water resources or related fields; demonstrated competency/performance in planning complex water resources development and management projects; professional experience of at least 15 years, including a project involving multisector water users and the optimization of water allocation through participatory/beneficiary consultation processes; and regional experience preferable. 8. Hydrologist (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: engineering degree in hydrology or other related fields, demonstrated competency/performance in precipitation/snowmelt and runoff simulation and reservoir sedimentation study, and professional experience of at least 10 years as hydrologist or similar related positions. 9. Dam engineer (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in civil engineering, demonstrated competency/performance in detailed engineering design of earth-fill dams, and professional experience of at least 15 years as dam engineer or similar related positions. 10. Hydraulic engineer (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in civil engineering; demonstrated competency/performance in detailed design of hydraulic structures, including spillway and other appurtenant structures associated with dams; and professional experience of at least 10 years in planning and designing hydraulic structures. 11. Irrigation engineer (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in irrigation or related fields, demonstrated competency/performance in planning irrigation development involving beneficiary participation and/or consultation,

22 Appendix 3 17 professional experience of at least 10 years in irrigation and/or agricultural development, and regional experience. 12. Agriculturist (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in agronomy or other related fields, demonstrated competency/performance in planning and designing irrigated agriculture development, professional experience of at least 10 years in agricultural development, and regional experience. 13. Water supply specialist (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in civil engineering, demonstrated competency/performance in planning urban water supply projects, professional experience of at least 10 years in water supply planning and design, and regional experience preferably. 14. Power specialist (international specialist) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in engineering, demonstrated competency/performance in planning and/or designing hydroelectric power generation projects, and professional experience of at least 10 years in power development and/or management. 15. Financial specialist (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in finance or other related fields, demonstrated competency/performance in comprehensive financial analysis of natural resources development project, and professional experience of at least 10 years as financial specialist for development projects. 16. Economist (international) should meet the following minimum qualifications: degree in economics, demonstrated competency/performance in carrying out comprehensive economic analysis in natural resources development or water supply, professional experience of at least 10 years as project economist. 17. Security risk management specialist (national) should meet the following minimum qualifications: ability to collaborate/liaise with a variety of local leaders who exercise military, economic, and political control within and around the Arghandab River subbasin; and experience in collaborating with the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW), other relevant government or donor agencies in Kandahar province or Kandahar city. VI. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS 18. The overall PPTA implementation period will be 1 January 2017 to 31 August MEW will be the lead counterpart agency for the PPTA, which will not be delegated. The consultants will report to ADB and MEW and will be responsible for their own security. MEW will closely coordinate with the Afghanistan Urban Water Supply and Sanitation Corporation for the program s water supply component, Da Afghanistan Breshna Shekat for the electrification component, the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock for the irrigation modernization component; and Kandahar s provincial and municipal authorities on the overall program plan