Health and environmental impacts following flooding

Transcription

1 Mental health Death Serious harm Minor injuries Asthma GI Earache Health outcome LANDF RM Urban flood risk Health and environmental impacts following flooding Dr Lorna Fewtrell EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Outline Health impacts Research areas Brief results DALYs Thoughts to ponder Aberystwyth University 1

2 Flooding has health impacts Health impacts Aberystwyth University 2

3 Everyone is an individual Media reports Age & health status EXCLUSIVE: Hundreds could die, says scientist HUNDREDS of flood victims could be killed by a brew of terrifying bugs lurking in the murky water. HEALTH IMPACTS Socio-demographic factors Behaviour Research areas Contamination profile Media analysis Mental health study Flood withdrawal & clean-up behaviour Aberystwyth University 3

4 Contamination profile Flood withdrawal & clean-up Aberystwyth University 4

5 Questionnaire survey Mental health study Building on large survey conducted by the Health Protection Agency Number of standard instruments Psychological distress Anxiety Depression Probable post traumatic stress disorder Three years after flooding Media analysis Don t let kids go in the water Killer bugs in flood waters EXCLUSIVE: Hundreds could die, says scientist HUNDREDS of flood victims could be killed by a brew of terrifying bugs lurking in the murky water. Virus expert Dr Ken Flint said potentially lethal bacteria like e.coli and salmonella would be left behind in the sludge in houses and streets for weeks or even months after the floods recede. And he claimed the elderly, the very young and the infirm were at serious risk from gastroenteritis. Microbiologist Dr Flint added: "I expect to see three to four times the normal rate for these diseases in coming weeks. That would mean the potential for low hundreds of people dying." Peril... kids brave Oxford flood water that contains bacteria and viruses Signs of E. coli in Mud After Cumbria Floods A sample of mud from a house hit by the recent flooding in Cumbria has been found to contain the DNA signature of bacterium E. coli 0157 His stark warning came as scientists found evidence of around a dozen dangerous viruses in flood water samples taken from swamped Gloucestershire streets. Aberystwyth University 5

6 Gastroenteritis and flooding Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) Standard method is to use reference pathogens, usually representative: bacteria, protozoa, and a killer virus QMRA of gastrointestinal illness Reference pathogens Campylobacter Cryptosporidium Rotavirus Pathogen levels in floodwater Flood phase Clean-up phase Dose-response relationships Exposure scenarios Aberystwyth University 6

7 Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) Summary measures of health Combines the length of time lived with a disability with (if applicable) years of life lost through premature death Different levels of disability are accounted for using severity weights QMRA results DALYs Flood phase Clean-up Flood phase Clean-up Flood phase Clean-up Campylobacter Cryptosporidum Rotavirus Aberystwyth University 7

8 Health impact assessment Lots of identified health impacts Some are quantifiable Apply to a case study population either as a retrospective exercise or a what if Carlisle flooding 2005, river Caldew, Denton Holme area of Carlisle - retrospective Aberystwyth University 8

9 Health impact assessment results DALYs Mental health Death Serious harm Minor injuries Asthma GI Earache Health outcome Aberystwyth University 9

10 Context DALYs Road traffic accidents Respiratory infections Cardiovascular disease Neuropsychological conditions Caldew flooding Non communicable diseases All causes Cause FRMRCII_Talks_ DALY Context Thoughts to ponder Impacts and their level will be event specific Actual contaminants, depth, velocity, duration However, flooding does makes people ill Impacts actually pretty significant Deaths (obvious) Mental health (insidious, private, stigma, various coping methods, delayed, not a juicy subject) GI (~50 cases, public anxiety, media interest) Given that, does it matter what the actual levels are? No! Aberystwyth University 10

11 Thoughts to ponder Prepare for the health impacts Death education/raise awareness? possibly difficult to influence Gastrointestinal illness Not a big problem in the scheme of things but easily (and best) avoided Timely hygiene advice Mental health Good advice at the withdrawal phase It is normal to be depressed after flooding let people know this Manage expectations Thoughts to ponder Avoid (minimise) the second disaster Train staff (who will also be under a lot of strain), especially those within the insurance industry Standard method for assessing flood damage required? Accreditation system for builders? Aberystwyth University 11

12 And finally Flooding is a complex process and its impact on people cannot be reduced to simply their property being inundated with (often dirty) water, dried out and restored. Acknowledgement The research reported in this presentation was conducted as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium with support from the: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme United Kingdom Water Industry Research Office of Public Works Dublin Northern Ireland Rivers Agency Data were provided by the EA and the Ordnance Survey. EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1 Aberystwyth University 12