Case Study: Mexico s Power Market Reform

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1 Case Study: Mexico s Power Market Reform Jesús Serrano Landeros ERRA Training Course May, 2018

2 Mexico s Energy Reform opened all subsectors of the energy industry to private participation: from generation to retail in electricity. from exploration to retail in oil and gas. 2

3 National Electric System

4 Mexico s Energy Industry Facts /1 Installed capacity: 77.5 GW * Gross Generation: TWh * Transmission Capacity: 74.2 GW Length: 104,133 km Distribution: 831,087 km Users: 42.2 millions Source: 1/ PRODESEN and information at December *Data at the end of Energy Regulatory Commission. 4

5 Installed Capacity 2017 Internal combustion, 1.4, 2% INSTALLED CAPACITY 2017: 77.5 GW (GW, %) Fluidized bed, 0.6, 1% Combined cycle, 24.0, 31% Clean Energy, 24.2, 31% CLEAN ENERGY CAPACITY 2017 (24.2 GW) Hydroele ctric, 12.6 Wind, 4.2 Turbogas, 13, 17% Carboelectric, 5.4, 7% Conventional thermoelectric, 8.9, 11% Geothermal, 1.0 Solar, 0.2 Efficient cogeneration, 3.7 Nuclear, 1.6 Bioenergy, 0.9 Source: Data at the end of Energy Regulatory Commission. 5

6 Mexico s Electric Grid Baja 1,200 km North border 3,152 km Grid kv km Transmission ,280 Subtransmission Distribution (medium voltage) Distribution (low voltage) 69, 115, 138 y ,853 >1 y , ,805 East coast 3,117 km West coast 7,828 km Source: PRODESEN, , 6

7 Cross-Border Interconnections U.S. border 11 interconnection points Total 2,547 MW 7

8 Historical Context: Quick Overview

9 Historical Context Electricity Industry Nationalization Public Electricity Service Act was amended allowing private investors in generation. Self-generation/cogeneration/BLT/IPP Structural Reform to the electricity sector was proposed and rejected by Mexican Congress CFE was created Integration of new technologies CRE was created Energy Reform (Constitutional amendments) 9

10 90 s Reform: Single Buyer with PPAs Reform of the Ley del Servicio Público de Energía Eléctrica Private sector Can only participate in the market as a generator, and the resulting power can only be used for its own consumption, for export, or for sale to a single buyer: the CFE. Two options: 1 2 Power generation for self-supply. Generation as Independent Producers for sale to the CFE. Bidding Process Build, Lease and Transfer Independent Energy Producer 10

11 90 s Reform: Single Buyer with PPAs Amendment of the Public Electricity Service Act Activities excluded from public utility: Modes of participation in power generation activity: 1 Power generation for self-supply, cogeneration or small-scale production; 2 Power generation for sale to CFE; Self-Supply Use of electrical power for one s own consumption; In determined areas by Ministry. Cogeneration Electricity generated be devoted to meeting cogeneration associated establishments needs. Surplus power to CFE. 3 4 Power generation deriving from cogeneration, independent production and small scale production for purposes of export; Importation of electrical power by natural or legal persons exclusively for their own use; Independent Production Electricity generation by a plant with a capacity +30 MW. Power exclusively to CFE. Export Small-Scale Production Sale the totality to CFE (no more capacity than 30 MW). Supply rural communities (no >1MW). Export of up to 30 MW. Import 5 Electrical power generation for use in emergencies arising from interruptions in public electricity service. By electrical power generation permits. Produced by cogeneration, IPP or Small Scale Production. By purchase electrical power from generating plants established abroad permits.

12 2013 Energy Reform

13 Energy Reform Insights On December 2013, a Constitutional Reform was approved for opening all the segments of energy sector to private participation. On August 11 th 2014, the Electricity Industry Law (LIE) and the Federal Commission of Electricity Law were enacted. Creation of wholesale electricity market on January

14 Principles of the Energy Reform Don't reinvent the wheel. Reduce costs through efficiency and competition. Legal certainty for new and previous participants. 14

15 Principles of the Energy Reform Working along with markets rather than against them. Potential competition Free entry Natural monopoly Regulated tariffs Investments promotion and not stopping ongoing projects. 15

16 Self-supply Public Service Electric Industry Structure Before the Energy Reform Generators only sold when forming a partnership with its users. Self-supply plants are not allowed to be dispatched; surplus sales are at their own risk. PIEs Dispatch CFE 16

17 New Electricity Industry Structure Cost Based Market Generation System and Market Operation Retail Consumption Qualified Users Cogeneración PIEs Spot Market Auctions Basic Users Private Long Run contracts Supply to regulated tariffs Transmission and contracts Distribution Contracts dated before Reform will be honored. 17

18 New Legal Framework Independent Operator for the system and the market. Network open access. Especializad bodies. Clear rules. Market surveillance. Impartial planning. Transparency. A level playing field 18

19 Ministry of Energy Policy Establish, lead and coordinate energy policy. Coordinate the implementation of infrastructure projects. Establish minimal percentages and other national content conditions applicable to the signature of the contracts. Planning Formulate sector-wide programs to develop the Power industry. Direct the National Power System Development Program (PRODESEN). Form partnerships in order to provide the Transmission and Distribution services. Market Requirements for the acquisition of Clean Energy Certificates (CEL). Set criteria for granting CEL. Determine requirements for an End User to register as Qualified User. 19

20 Energy Regulatory Commission CRE is a coordinated regulatory body on energy matters, which promotes the efficient development of the energy sector and the reliability of hydrocarbons and electricity supply. CRE has its own legal personality, technical and managerial autonomy as well as budgetary self-sufficiency. CRE s Governing Board is composed by 7 Commissioners, including its President For the designation of each Commissioner, the President of Mexico submits to the Senate a list with three recommendations for its consideration. The Senate appoints each Commissioner by a two-thirds majority vote cast. Commissioners are designated by staggered periods of seven years, with the possibility of being re-designated, for a single occasion, to another period. 20

21 Energy Regulatory Commission Economic Regulation Sets Prices and Tariffs of regulated assets. Granted open access to electric grids. Sets Market Rules. Market monitoring. Supervision and law enforcement Issue and monitor compliance with the general administrative provisions, permits and related to the authority conferred by LIE. Impose appropriate sanctions under the terms of the provisions of the laws, Regulations and other legal requirements. Technical regulation and standards Quality and reliability of electricity supply. Interconnection and connection technical criteria. Resolve disputes relating to the interconnections and connections that are not made within the prescribed period, as well as cases involving denial of supply. 21

22 System and Market Operator: CENACE is a decentralized agency of SENER, and is responsible for ensuring that electricity industry companies are able to operate and grow in the market. Oversees the operations of the SEN and the Wholesale Electric Market (WEM), guaranteeing the transparent process of the Networks (T&D). Makes proposals for the expansion and modernization of the Transmission and the Distribution Grids for the WEM. 22

23 Reorganization of CFE 6 Generation affiliates with horizontal separation CFE Generation I CFE Generation II CFE Generation III CFE Generation IV CFE Generation V (Intermediation Generator) CFE Generation VI 1 Distribution subsidiary CFE Distribution 1 Transmission subsidiary CFE Transmission 1 Qualified Supply 23

24 Milestones in Electric Power Industry ISO creation (August 28 th, 2014) Day-Ahead Market (January 28 th, 2016) Tenders (Long-term) (1 st Auction Award: March 2016) (2 nd Auction Award: September 2016) (3 rd Auction Award: November 2017) Clean Energy Certificates Requirement (For 2018: Published on March 31, 2015) (For 2019: Published on March 31, 2016) (For 2020: Published on March 31, 2017) Real-time Market (January 27 th, 2017) Balancing Capacity Market (March 8 th, 2017) (February 28 th, 2018) Capacity Market (by March 6, 2017 for 2016) 24

25 Wholesale Electric Market

26 Wholesale Market Participants Market participants Generators Intermediation Generators Market Participant Users Suppliers Marketers not suppliers Represent in the wholesale market Power plants (CE) Replicates contracts before Reform Themselves Users Traders 26

27 Participation in the Short-term Markets is Increasing Generators Qualified Retailer Basic service retailer Qualified user generation companies 5 Generators CFE qualified retailer Non-retailer marketer 4 o 12 qualified users representing 74 load centers. Energía Azteca X, S.A. de C.V. Grupo Energético Elan, S.A.P.I. de C.V. Potential of 4,274 load centers with demand equal or greater than 1 MW. 27

28 Market Transactions by Term and Products Short-term Market Day-Ahead market (DAM) Real-Time market One hour-ahead market Medium-term (1-3 years) Imbalance Capacity Market Bilateral Contracts Auctions Long-term (3-20 years) Energy Power Products Clean Energy Certificates Ancillary Services PPA Auctions 28

29 Short Term Energy Market Objective Efficient and reliable dispatch in the short term National Energy System (DAM). Send correct signals of the real energy costs at different locations and hours of the day, for the establishment of new power plants and management of the controllable demand. Characteristics Two pricings (Day-Ahead vs. Real-Time). Nodal prices (2,000 nodes approximately). Cost based offers. Co-Optimization of the energy and ancillary services. Initial market based on a mathematical software package. Gradual Market: Development of additional functionalities like virtual bids. 29

30 Day-Ahead Market On the Day-Ahead Market, the allocation and delivery of energy on the power plants can be made in a single step with a day in advance. Participant Offers Supply Offers and Load Bids Ancillary Services Imports/Exports Co-Optimization DAM Schedule allocation for power plant units (Start-up instructions) Energy s Quantities & Prices Related Services Quantities & Prices Schedule for imports and exports 30

31 Real-Time Market Through the Real-Time Market, the CENACE will execute the economic dispatch for maintaining the supply and demand balance of electricity. Real-Time Market model pricing is more detailed than the physical representation of the network. Restrictions Identification Contingency Analysis will be made to identify security 30 restrictions. Economic Dispatch with Security Restrictions Social welfare will be maximized subject to all restrictions fulfilment. Regulation (Automatic Control of Generation (CAG)) Automatic Control of Generation signals will be sent to the power plants units for maintaining the frequency into the limits. 31

32 US $ / MWh The Average Marginal Local Price for SIN in 2017 was US$63.79/MWh, for January March 2018 was US$62.77/MWh 250 Average Marginal Local Price for SIN (Day-Ahead Market) Source: CENACE 32

33 Rate (USD/MW) A demand curve is established in two sections: Vertientes de la Reforma Ex post Balancing Capacity Market provides revenues for generators in order to cover their fixed cost. i. CENACE estimates fixed cost for reference technology. ii. iii. CRE establishes power requirement and optimal level of power. Demand curve is the lines segment which connects A and B, and B and C Power supply is a vertical line equal to net supply power A. Two times de Reference Generator Cost B. Reference Generator Cost b) Power Requirement C. Optimal level of power Quantity (MW) 33

34 Balancing Capacity Market results for 2016 and 2017 Price (Thousand USD / MW-year) Power (MW-year) 126,4 147, ,9 62,5 38,1 31, SIN BCA BCS SIN BCA BCS

35 Contractual Coverage Obligations CRE establish coverage requirements: proportion of Load Centers demand that Suppliers must hire in advance. Hedge contracts include energy, power and Clean Energy Certificates (CEL). Criteria Supplier must follow to forecast its demand: Maximum consumption (MWh); Annual average load factor. Years Energy Capacity CEL 1 a 3 60 % 60 % 60 % 4 a 6 Number of CEL 50 % 50 % 7 a 9 Number of CEL 40 % 40 % 10 a 12 Number of CEL 30 % 30 % 13 a 18 Number of CEL 20 % 20 % 35

36 Medium-Term Auction Characteristics Objective: Enable Load Responsible Entities (LRE) to comply with the coverage requirements established by the CRE. Products Validity Announcement Energy and Power 1, 2 o 3 years 3 months before Buyers: LRE and Generator. Physical Sellers: LRE and Generators with surpluses. Financial Sellers: traders and LRE with hedges. Technological neutral. 36

37 Long-term Auctions Technological neutrality. Purchase offers for each product. Sale offers according to the capacity of each plant. The criterion is maximizing the total economic surplus. Products Capacity CEC Energy Term 15 years (Cap / Energy) 20 years (CEC) Years in advance At least 3 years Energy Annual amount of energy in MWh Clean Energy Certificates Number of annual certificates Power Annual amount of MWh-year for the 100 critical hours in the system. They could be offered for different zones. 37

38 Result of the Third Long-Term Auction Clearing prices* (USD/MWh+CEL) 1 st 2 nd 3 rd Solar Wind Geothermal Solar Hydroelectric Turbogas Cycle Combined Wind Increase of 7, 600 MW to the real generation capacity in Mexico Generators More than 20 power companies from more than 11 countries, including Mexico 8,969 MDD of investment in the coming years Bidders Technical Proposals * Weighted average of offers of packages that only offered Energy and CELs. Exchange rate (MX / USD) used by SLP: 1st , 2nd 20.17, 3rd

39 The Long Term Auctions have achieved the installation of new clean energy capacity Additional Capacity of Clean Technologies in Long Term Auctions (MW) Other Otras Limpias clean Eólica Wind Solar Photovoltaic * 1a st Auction Subasta 22a nd Subasta Auction 3a rd Subasta Auction 7.4 GW of additional clean energy capacity have been committed in the three auctions, i.e. its capacity increased 157% compared to

40 Winning Companies of the Second Long-Term Auction 1 st Auction / 11 companies 2 nd Auction / 24 companies 3 rd Auction / 8 companies & (Compañía de Electricidad Los Ramones S.A.P.I. de C.V.)

41 Clean Energy Certificates

42 Pigouvian Tax Internalize social cost. Per-unit tax on the amount of polluting emissions. Set equal to the social cost of the negative externalities. P 2 P 1 Supply with social cost Pigouvian Tax Supply without social cost Demand Social optimal Private optimal 42

43 Tradable Certificates and Feed in Tariff Price Feed in Tariff S Price Cantidad objetivo (certificados) S P* P* P P Cost Market sets Q Q Quantity Q Q* Market sets P Quantity 43

44 Clean Energy Certificates (CEL) Title issued by CRE that accredits the production of electric energy from Clean Energies and is used to meet the requirements associated with the consumption of the Load Centers. One CEL accredits the generation of 1 MWh. It is given to the Clean Energy Power Plants. They are marketable among stakeholders, and their value is determined by supply and demand. They will be used by the Obligated Participants to liquidate their Clean Energy Obligations. The breach leads to a sanction. 44

45 Total Income Required CELs are effective tools to promote clean energy National targets become individual obligations. Clean generators receive an additional income. If transaction costs are very close to zero, the price of CELs should be equal to the difference between the cost of clean generation and conventional technologies. Income from Clean Energy Certificates. Income from selling energy. 45

46 Clean Energy Certificates Institutional Framework Institutional role Regular Manage (S-CEL) Verify Compliance Sanction Obligated Participants (Not cleaned consumption is taxed) Suppliers Qualified Users Supply Isolated Legacy Interconnection Contracts not wholly supplied by Clean Energies Consume Operate the MEM, CEL Secondary Market (Spot / Auctions) Established Obligations of Clean Energies (Requirement) Clean Generators (1 MWh= 1CEL) Generation System for Management of Certificates and Compliance of Clean Energy Obligations (S-CEL) Platform that designs and operates the CRE as Administrator, for the management and registration of: 1. Generation and consumption of electricity. 2. Issuance, transactions, liquidation and voluntary cancellation of CEL. 3. Verification of compliance with clean energy obligations. 46

47 Clean Energy Share Goals 2021 Goal: 30% 2018 Goal: 25% 2024 Goal: 35% Source: Transition Energy Law 47

48 Expected Investment

49 Expected Investments : $106 Billions Dollars Generation: $86 billions dollars INVESTMENT AND POWER CAPACITY ESTIMATED BY ENERGY SOURCE (86 BILLIONS DOLLARS, 56 GW) Transmission: $11 billions dollars Distribution: $9 billions dollars Conventional, 22,6, 26% 21 GW Clean Energy, 63,6, 74% 35 GW Exchange rate: $ pesos per dollar. Bank of Mexico, May 4, Source: PRODESEN , Ministry of Energy. 49

50 Expected Investments in Transmission and Distribution : $20 Billions Dollars EXPECTED INVESTMENT IN TRANSMISSION : $11 BILLIONS DOLLARS (BILLIONS, %) EXPECTED INVESTMENT IN DISTRIBUTION : $9 BILLIONS DOLLARS (BILLIONS, %) Compensati on; 0,6; 6% Transmission; 5,1; 47% Smart Grids; 1,5; 17% Transformation; 5,2; 47% Modernization; 1,9; 23% Extension; 5,2; 60% Exchange rate: $ pesos per dollar. Bank of Mexico, May 4, Source: PRODESEN , Ministry of Energy. 50

51 Private Participation in Grid Expansion

52 Transmission Plan: (11 billion USD) HVDC relevant projects, feasible start operation year 2021, Oaxaca to Center of Mexico 1,200 MMUSD 2022, Southeast to Peninsula 1,142 MMUSD 2022, South Baja to National System 1,109 MMUSD Source: Prodesen , Sener; Exchange rate , Banxico 52

53 Private Participation in T&D Constitutional Reform (Art. 27) Remains as strategic activities exclusive to the Mexican state: The planning and control of the National Electric System The nuclear power generation The electricity Transmission and Distribution Allow private investment trough partnerships or contracts entered into with the Mexican State Electric Industry Law (Arts. 30 & 31) Private companies could participate in T&D development by entering into either a public private partnership or a turn-key or long term contracting scheme with a state entity regarding finance, installation, maintenance, management, operation and expansion of the transmission and distribution grids 53

54 Transmission Projects CRE s rule A/009/2016 The winning offer will be the base for rate s setting provided it was: i. The project is part of the PRODESEN. ii. Competitive process result. Regulated income The lowest offer in the tenders. Enough to cover all costs; constant in real terms (inflation adjusted). Generated by general rates for the network use. Independent accounting The State, transmission and distribution enterprises must maintain independent accounting systems for each project. Available at 54

55 Transmission Projects CRE s rule A/059/2017 To allow schemes that reduce financing cost. Allowing: i. Transfer of collection rights for a SPV. ii. Dispute resolution through arbitration. Available at 55

56 Contractual Schemes Contract subscribed by CFE Directly with the State (SENER) and CENACE Instructs CFE to carry out the project Established the bidding process (bases) Directly pay to the winning bidder Report auction results Set rev req. of transmission after of results of auction Private investor (Contractor) Rates: Regulates for existing system + (annuity) for bided projects to users rates Contract for the management and operation of the necessary infrastructure for the public transmission service Contract with SENER for Dev & Opera Private Investor Trans. Contractor Set rev. req. of transmission after of results of auction Agreement for Technical & Commercial Operation Could participated in the auctions by association with other companies Rates: Regulates for existing system + (annuity) for bided projects to users rates CENACE collects and directly pays the winning bidder *Under Consultation by SENER

57 SENER s 1 st Tender for Transmission Line HVDC transmission line Baja California National Interconnected System Length: 435 miles length; Capacity 1,500 MW. Estimated investment: 1.1 billion dollars. Contractor will carry out the financing, installation, maintenance, management and operation of the lines. The contract will be awarded to the lowest net present value bid (constant annuity). CENACE will pay, directly SPV. At the end of the contract period, the line might be transferred to the State. 57

58 CFE s Tender for HVDC Transmission Line Yautepec - Ixtepec Contractor will carry out the financing, installation, maintenance, management and operation of the lines. Build-Operate-Transfer agreement. CFE will pay to the Contractor. Property must be transferred to CFE no lather than commercial operation date. Length: 1,200 km circuit; Capacity 3,000 MW Estimated investment: 1.2 billion dollars. 58

59 Rates

60 Principle: Rates should allow for a reasonable return with efficient costs National and international reference costs. Specific conditions. Useful or used assets. Rate base Costs O&M USD% MXN% Depreciation Return Working capital Taxes MXN Annual Income for regulated activities 60

61 Basic Supply Rates CRE rates CRE estimation Commercial margin CENACE and ancillary services Subsidy Regulated rates Legacy contracts* + Auctions + Spot Distribution Transmission Generation Basic Supply Rates 61

62 Transmission Rates 1 st Sets first tariff period Revenue required Transmission per year (MMUSD) Two voltage ranges 220 KV or <220 & 69 kv Two rates stamp to: 70% to consumers 30% to generators Revenue and rates are adjusted with: efficiency gains, inflation, exchange rate and new private investment 1% adjust of rates by efficiency per year Transmission rates (USD/MWh, 2017) Voltage Level Generato rs Consumer s 220 kv < 220 kv y 69 kv DOF 16/01/ ,416 2,420 2, (A/045/2015) 62

63 Distribution Rates Rates for the first tariff period Differentiated rates for 16 distribution divisions. A maximum 5% of technical losses and 5% non-technical losses is recognized. A reduction is required for each zone that are above this threshold. Reductions are up to 2.5% for techniques and up to 0.8% for nontechnical ones. Charges are updated for inflation and other clearly established factors. Domestic Low Voltage up to 150 kwh-month 1 BAJA CALIFORNIA 2 BAJIO 3 CENTRO OCCIDENTE 4 CENTRO ORIENTE 5 CENTRO SUR 6 GOLFO CENTRO 7 GOLFO NORTE 8 JALISCO 9 NOROESTE 10 NORTE 11 ORIENTE 12 PENINSULAR 13 SURESTE 14 VALLE MEXICO CENTRO 15 VALLE MEXICO NTE 16 VALLE MEXICO SUR Distribution Rates Differentiated by 16 distribution divisions and consumption level Domestic Low Voltage greater than 150 kwhmonth Small Demand Low Voltage up to 25 kw-month Great Low Demand Voltage up to 25 kwmonth Average rate USD/MWh DOF 28/01/2016 Great Demand in Medium Voltage 63

64 System Operator Tariffs Rates for CENACE operation (USD/MWh) Generatos Consumers A/004/2018 Income is assigned 30% to generators and 70% to consumers charges. Performance and quality service indicators will be developed in the for the next tariff year. Required Income (million USD) Operation and maintenance costs Investment Miscellaneous income Market surveillance activities 3.40 Surplus Total Required Income

65 Case Study: Mexico s Power Market Reform Jesús Serrano Landeros ERRA Training Course May, 2018

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