Comprehensive Clean Energy & Economy Actions and Analysis. Thomas D. Peterson. The Center for Climate Strategies July 21, 2012

Transcription

1 Comprehensive Clean Energy & Economy Actions and Analysis Thomas D. Peterson The Center for Climate Strategies July 21, 2012!1

2 Premiere Catalyst for Climate, Energy and Economic Action Nonpartisan, Non Advocacy, 501c3 Partnership Organization Washington, DC HQs; team across US Partners in US, Canada, Mexico, China National leader on policy development, analysis and consensus building since 2004 U.S. projects with 40+ states, 3 regions, 2,000+ stakeholders Policy facilitation, design, analysis, implementation, financing GHG targets, policy actions, instruments, measurements, design Energy, industry, transportation, waste, agriculture, forestry sectors Energy and investment markets Funded by private foundations and donors, government agencies The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS)!2 Center for Climate Strategies

3 U.S. CO2 Baselines AEO Projected CO2e Emissions by Projection Year, Projected Emissions MMtCO2e AEO2005 AEO2006 AEO2007 ER AEO2008 AEO2008 ER AEO2009 AEO2009 AEO2010 AEO emissions 1990 emissions 17% below Year Source: U.S. EIA Annual Energy Outlook for listed years; ER = early release; MMtCO2e = million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent; AEO= Annual Energy Outlook, US Energy Information Administration!3 Center for Climate Strategies

4 Baseline Decomposition!4 Center for Climate Strategies

5 Energy Intensity United States energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product, Energy use per capita Energy use per 2005 dollar of GDP !5 Center for Climate Strategies

6 West Coast Potential Clean Energy Goals Costs Savings per tco2e Gross State Product Jobs (1,000s) Investment (Billions) Regional Synergy Local Health GHG Reductions Zero Emission New Buildings + -$100 to $100 + ~125 $7 4 Uncertain High Whole Building Retrofits + -$100 to $ to High Multistate Financing Policies + -$100 to $0 + > 13 Uncertain 6 + Medium Feed-In Tariff + Uncertain + Up to 13 $ Uncertain Electricity Transmission and Grid Integration + Not quantified + > 26 $4 7 Uncertain Not quantified Electric/Plug In Electric Vehicles + -$100 to $100 + > 13 $ High Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)!6 Center for Climate Strategies

7 Climate Plan Sectors & Actions!7 Center for Climate Strategies

8 CCS-ISM Quantification System!8 Center for Climate Strategies

9 National Analysis of State Plans!9 Center for Climate Strategies

10 National Results 25 Key Actions Increase US employment by 1.11 million net new full-time jobs by 2020 Grow GDP by $84 billion in 2020 and cumulatively by $1 trillion (in net present value) between now and 2030 Reduce US oil imports by 87 million barrels in 2020 and cumulatively by 3.9 billion barrels between now and 2030 Increase US fuel diversity, reduce summer peak demand for electricity, generate direct societal cost savings and reduce US energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) Reduce GHG emissions by about 420 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalent (MMCO2e) in 2020 and cumulatively by about 12.7 billion metric tons of CO 2 equivalent between now and 2030!10 Center for Climate Strategies

11 Industrial Efficiency, Demand Side Management million net new jobs Net savings of $30 per ton MMTCO2e 2,800 MMTCO2e reduced 1.3 percent reduction in energy intensity!11 Center for Climate Strategies

12 Macroeconomic Performance change from baseline -levelized annual 0.50% 0.38% 0.25% 0.13% Economic Performance by Sector 2020 Employment Increase 2.46 million 2020 GDP Increase $157 billion 20 YR GDP Increase $1.8 trillion Employment GDP baselin 0.00% Heat and Power Transportation and Land Use!12 Center for Climate Strategies

13 Dollars Per Job Created!13 Center for Climate Strategies

14 Energy Security!14 Center for Climate Strategies

15 GHG Reductions 2010 to 2030 GHG Reductions for All Sectors 2010 to 2050 GHG Reductions for All Sectors Studied Policies Recent Actions in Baseline Studied Policies Recent Actions in Baseline 35,000 30,000 Reductions from eference (MMtCO2eq) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Heat & Power Residential, Commercial Transpportation & Land & Industry Use Agricuture, Forestry & Waste - Heat & Power Residential, Commercial Transpportation & Land & Industry Use Agricuture Wa!15 Center for Climate Strategies

16 Implementation Level Local State Federal 22% 39% 39%!16 Center for Climate Strategies

17 Financing Methods Type Agreements Asset Sales Bonds Contracts Debt Disclosure Donations Equity Fees Grants Market Structure Pricing Purchases Rates Standards Swaps Taxes Transfers Examples Voluntary, Negotiated, Settlements, Purchase Agreements, Revenue Sharing Permits, Allowances, Facilities, Resources, Licenses Municipal Bonds, Performance Bonds, Qualified Energy Conservation Bonds Performance, Service, Shared Savings Loan Loss Guarantees, Property Assessments, Blended Debt/Equity Instruments Labeling, Performance Disclosure, Performance Reporting Grants, Matches, Intellectual Property, Technology, Equipment, Funds, Assistance, R&D Venture Capital, Revenue Sharing Access Fees, User Fees Competitive Awards, Performance Rewards, Matching Funds, Philanthropy Market Formation, Aggregation, Integration, Procurement, Public/Private Enterprise Formation Pricing Guarantees, Pricing Incentives and Disincentives Procurement, Buyouts, Leases On Bill Purchase Options, Rate Adjustments, Surcharges, System Benefit Charges Performance Standards, Credits and Tags, Product Standards, Penalties, Settlements, Permits Technology Swaps, Equipment Swaps, Debt or Equity Swaps Rate Levels, Performance Targets, Credits, Deductions, Exemptions, Holidays Subsidies, Reimbursements, Low Income Assistance!17 Center for Climate Strategies