Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy s role in the UK in 2050?

Transcription

1 Global challenges in the nuclear sector, BREXATOM and new build: what do these mean for nuclear energy s role in the UK in 2050? Dame Sue Ion FREng FRS Hon President National Skills Academy for Nuclear (NSAN)

2 "Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future What works What doesn t work What needs to be done In terms of nuclear energy...

3 As they say:- a week is a long time in politics and we ve had several of them!...what next for the UK Nuclear Sector? Strengths Challenges and Opportunities

4 To understand what the future might hold... We need to understand where our journey has led us so far And Where we sit in the global nuclear world

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6 Civil nuclear power: UK Present Sodium-cooled fast reactors DFR PFR Gas-cooled reactors Magnox AGR HTR Water-cooled reactors SGHWR Sizewell B PWR

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8 Why BREXATOM Matters: 3 Major issues to deal with Safeguards and security: replacing Euratom with the ONR and IAEA The European Supply Agency and the need for Nuclear Cooperation Agreements/Treaties Research

9 Teresa May Florence speech 21 Sept 2017

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11 What about Nuclear Energy and Medicine?

12 Nuclear medicine uses radiation to provide diagnostic information about the functioning of a person's specific organs, or to treat them. Diagnostic procedures using radioisotopes are now routine. Radiotherapy can be used to treat some medical conditions, especially cancer, using radiation to weaken or destroy particular targeted cells. Over 40 million nuclear medicine procedures are performed each year, and demand for radioisotopes is increasing at up to 5% annually. Sterilization of medical equipment is also an important use of radioisotopes.

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15 BONE SCINTIGRAPHY with Tc99m pyrophosphate Normal images Multiple metastasis of prostate cancer Ant view Post view Ant view Post view

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17 Y-90

18 Nuclear Fission Around the World 430 plants in operation, in 31 countries Providing 11% of the world s power 70 being built in 13 countries notably China, India, South Korea and Russia 179 on order or planned A further 308 proposed Major steps being taken in the US, France, and elsewhere Significant further capacity being created by plant upgrading. Plant Life Extensions maintaining capacity Source: World Nuclear Association & IAEA PRIS database, as at 2017

19 China Huge energy growth 37 operating reactors 20 reactors under construction 5-6 fold growth planned by 2020 to at least 58GWe 4% of electricity Then 150GWe by 2030 and 400 by 2050? NPT member, potential Asian supplier Actively developing most advanced systems

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22 UK s strength, challenge and opportunity Knowledge of many systems: Funding gap/ lack of direction: Failure to grasp opportunity? Current Planned Potential Plus Many More! Maybe!

23 UK has Experience of Commercial Scale Reprocessing and the Associated Development: will the closure of Thorp and the cessation of commercial reprocessing be a wasted opportunity? Mixer Settlers Pulsed Columns

24 From Full Fuel Cycle Industrial Experience to just Front End and Decommissioning? Springfields Fuel Manufacture Sellafield Reprocessing, Waste management And decommissioning Capenhurst Enrichment

25 Waste Management and Decommissioning

26 The UK s original ambitions for new build AREVA EPR Westinghouse AP1000 Hitachi ABWR

27 Olkiluoto 3 Finland & Flamanville 3 France Flamanville 3 Olkiluoto 3 Finland

28 Hinkley Point C Complex Congested Heavy Enormous! Non-repetitive

29 Wylfa Newydd

30 Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Power station Japan Unit 6: 3/11/92 Start of Construction:18/12/95 First criticality: 7/11/96 Commissioned Unit 7: 1/7/93 Start of Construction: 1/11/96 First criticality: 2/7/97 Commissioned

31 Westinghouse AP1000

32 China AP1000 Plant Progress Sanmen 1 August 2016 Sanmen site August 2016 Haiyang 1 August 2016 Haiyang 2 August 2016 Photos Sanmen Nuclear Power Company, Ltd.; Shandong Nuclear Power Company, Ltd., All rights reserved.

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38 Moorside

39 APR1400 Barakah UAE

40 Hualong One China

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42 Pressurised Water Reactor Capital and Finance Costs 41% 17% 2% 25% Capital Decommissioning Operations and Maintenance Fuel Spent Fuel Management 2% 13% Financing Costs dominated by capital required to construct and timescale to finances before returns flow.

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44 What about Research and Fusion?

45 Example of significant beneficial leverage from participation in EU project

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47 International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), the world's largest nuclear fusion reactor 47

48 Confining hot plasmas Challenges Making ITER a success DEMO: when to start?: how to finance? Maximising value from JET in the UK

49 Collaborating with Japan Preparing for advanced ITER regimes Controlling the plasma Solving heat exhaust issues Coping with neutron damage Replacing key components Blanket materials and tritium handling

50 So what next...? Where does that leave us as a sector? The nuclear sector deal SMR s Future investment in next generation technology

51 "Decarbonising UK energy:: Effective technology and policy options for achieving a zero-carbon future What works- If we look overseas; fleet build What doesn t work- The current free market What needs to be done...

52 What do we need? Fleet effect: Building a fleet of one type of reactor will achieve NOAK, reduced build times and reduced electricity costs and contribute to decarbonisation targets Owning technology: Owning IP leads to more UK content, increased GVA, jobs and exports industrial strategy growth targets Finance costs: Government intervention in financing of new build can lead to lower interest rates with significant reduction of electricity cost Control of build rate: Planning a regular drumbeat of reactors leads to supply chain efficiency and job continuity Future technology and programmes - creating IP ownership and exports Maximising economic benefit for the UK enhancing supply chain efficiency Science and Innovation introducing disruptive innovation from nuclear and other sectors

53 Cross-cutting themes Integrating into the Nuclear Sector Deal Key Areas Enabling alternative financing and fleet effect. Creating IP ownership and exports New Build Nuclear Sector Deal Civil Sub Divisions Future Technology WM &D Defence Defence Maximising Economic Benefit Enhancing supply chain efficiency Science & Innovation Regulation Introducing disruptive innovation from nuclear and other sectors Skills

54 What about Small Modular Reactors? What s happened to the proposed UK initiative? What about Advanced Systems generally?

55 Opportunities Small Modular Reactors Drastically reduced cost of capital (compared to large reactors) Smaller designs maximise the extent to which construction can be undertaken in a controllable factory setting using 21 st century manufacturing techniques. Capital cost per item is greatly reduced. Shorter construction periods with lower risk. Conceived to be built in significant numbers enabling cost reduction to be achieved by learning through doing (in contrast to small numbers of large reactors). SMRs can be built on sites not suitable for larger reactors. A flexible means of continuing to deliver a baseload of low carbon energy to complement renewables. The easiest opportunity for UK manufacturers to gain entry to a reactor market. No established global suppliers Potential for a large global market Benefit of being first to market The SMRs that are closest to market are all PWRs not novel technology, though can be novel configuration in some cases.

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57 1. Range of SMR designs CNEA CAREM Martingale ThorCon CNNC ACP-100 B&W mpower Holtec SMR160 Westinghouse SMR NuScale (Not to scale) Thorium100 HTMR100 X-Energy Xe100 Urenco U-Battery KAERI SMART Moltex Energy SSR

58 Moltex Stable Salt Reactor

59 Heat Applications & Temperatures: The Potential for Dual Mission Nuclear Plants

60 The Potential Market > 600 Reactors? Petrochemical (150) Petroleum Refining (50-100) Fertilizers/Ammonia (100+) Coal-to-Liquids (100s) Oil Sands/Shale (200+)

61 MICRO Reactor Opportunity U-Battery Micro nuclear modular reactor. Provides local power and heat (800 C). Single unit 10MWt, 4MWe. Fits in volume of two squash courts. Overall installation has 60 year life. Gas cooled, helium in primary circuit, helium/nitrogen in secondary circuit driving turbine. Inherently safe TRISO fuel (up to 20% enriched 235-U). Fuel cartridge lasts five years. Spent fuel cartridge fits in international standard Excellox spent fuel transport flask.

62 National Nuclear R&D Programme Fuel Fuel Research Facilities Advanced Fuel Pin ready for Irradiation Accident tolerant and more efficient fuel commercialised Advanced Reactors Recycle Technology Recycle Research Facilities UK is key partner in the development of advanced systems Lab scale of a safe, economic and efficient advanced recycle tech. using surrogate materials UK is key partner in the development of advanced systems UK to be a supplier of significant reactor components Lab scale of a safe, economic and efficient advanced recycle tech. using spent fuel Gen IV Reactors Waste Management Waste Research Facilities Develop technologies for Advanced recycle Demonstrate immobilisation technology leading to hot cell testing

63 National Nuclear R&D Programme Modelling Simulation Integrated Modelling and simulation capability New codes that make the UK a leading nation Thermal Hydraulics and Physics Testing Control and Instrumentation Robotics Activities completed that support the uptake of modern I&C within industry and the regulator Developed Advanced Robotics Automated Systems and Remote Handling Capability Develop Advanced C&I Systems Gen IV Reactors Validation & Verification World class test facilities supporting validation and verification est.

64 National Nuclear R&D Programme Strategic Assessments Developed and demonstrated appropriate tools to evaluate potential fuel cycles to shape future research programmes Public Engagement Technology Watch Tools identified to communicate effectively with the public Tools and Techniques routinely used to engage public Consistently review and evaluate potential technologies which show benefits to the UK Gen IV Reactors

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66 We can be World Class and Top Table again but not if we pursue the current policy

67 World-Leading Research Facilities

68 Advanced Manufacturing Research and Innovation

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71 NNL Central Laboratory

72 What needs to be done? Use less bits Take less time Build a fleet of the same design Borrow the money cheaply Jump a technology generation

73 Thankyou. Questions?

74 Hornsea 2 Windfarm 57.50/MWh strike price 1386MW capacity 3 Phases 6-15MW Turbines

75 Hornsea 1 Windfarm 140/MWh Strike price 1200MW capacity: 174 7MW turbines: 407 km² Assumed generic load factor of 42%

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