Nuclear Power in France

Transcription

1 1 Nuclear Power in France Dr Sunil Félix, Nuclear Counsellor, French Embassy in Tokyo Seminar on WNE and Overseas Nuclear Industry February 9, 2016

2 2 AGENDA Energy Context and Key Trends Nuclear Power Development Today s Fleet and Actors Energy Policy Safety Regulation Waste Management The Fuel Cycle Dismantling Experience Fast Neutron Reactors Other R&D Activities

3 3 Energy Context and Key Trends Pressure on the economical model of energy providers in Europe Low electricity demand in Europe and low fuel prices leading to low electricity market prices (33 /MWh in 2014 source : EEX) 1 Subsidies of European Union to the development of Renewables Overcapacities in Europe over the next 10 years (except in the UK) After 2030, massive need for renewal in Europe Policies promoting lowcarbon energies and energy independence in Europe Towards a mix of Renewables, Nuclear, Energy Efficiency, and gas as complement Market model adapted to the UK political vision Market model to conceive and carry out in France Strong growth in Emerging Countries Strong growth of demand in Emerging Countries, linked to population increase, which benefits non European energy operators in the international world competition Nevertheless, an opportunity to export our technics, our standards, and our associated services

4 4 Key Trends for Tomorrow s Energy In tomorrow s world : Growth will be «electrical» Customers will be actors Energy will be low-carbon

5 5 Growth will be electrical A general trend in Europe as well as in emerging countries: Even though, on the sort term, in Europe, the economic crisis is much longer than anticipated, leading to stagnating electricity and gas demand, economic and financial situations difficult for industries On the long term, the need for clean electricity will continue to grow In emerging countries : due to population increase and economic growth Electricity consumption grew by 3 % per year in China and by 4 % in Africa In developed countries : new uses of electricity Electrical mobility, connected houses, smart cities As a result, there is a very strong need for electricity, which will contribute to growth, industrialisation and job creation

6 6 Customers will be actors - Electricity will be Local and Global Local Individuals, firms/industries, local authorities will want to benefit from new technologies to act on their own consumption, and even produce their own electricity The development of connected objects, of the digital age, progress in energy storage and drop in the production price of decentralised sources of energies will open new horizons Proximity, sustainable cities and smart electric systems Global Gas, coal and oil prices are determined on the world scene Industrial dimension For e.g. : China s role in the growth of new nuclear and photovoltaic Need to be a player in the regions where tomorrow s technologies are being deployed : nuclear, hydraulic and other renewables, thermal, smart grids, sustainable cities all while factoring in geopolitical dimensions The local players in emerging countries : our competitors but also our partners

7 7 Tomorrow s energy will be low-carbon Faced with the need and the urgency to act against climate change, our societies are looking for new energy models Tomorrow s energy mix will be different from today s The targets for reducing CO2 emissions and increasing energy efficiency are high : in France, less than 40 % CO2 emission in 2030 as compared to 1990 and a 27% increase of energy efficiency That was the aim of the Climate Conference, the COP 21, held in Paris in November/December 2015 At stake : master and promote new energy technologies In this context, two sources of energy appear as very suitable to meet today s challenges: Nuclear and Renewables

8 8 Developments and innovations Nuclear, with significant needs in the world, mainly in emerging countries : first, in countries which have already acquired the technology, and above all, from 2030 onwards, in acceding countries Indeed, if, today, ¾ of Nuclear power plants are within the OECD, more than ¾ of the nuclear power plants under construction are outside the OECD and more than half in China Three main priority areas : safety, financing and control over investment costs (essential for a technology where investment represents 2/3 of the kwh cost) Renewable Energies, with a large potential in regions with a high growth rate, and with lots of wind and sun; therefore, here too, in emerging/developing countries

9 9 Nuclear Power Worldwide IAEA 2015 projections 35 th Edition of IAEA s Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 Nuclear power s global expansion projected to continue in the coming decades albeit at a slowing pace amid challenges including low fossil fuel prices, a sluggish world economy and the legacy of Japan s Fukushima Daiichi accident Several factors : Volatility of fossil fuel prices, Nuclear power s role in greenhouse gas reduction, Energy supply security, Population growth and demand for electricity in the developing world Latest projections : slower growth in nuclear power, in keeping with the trend since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident. World s nuclear power generating capacity projected to expand by between 2.4% (low-case projection) and 68% (high case projection) by 2030, compared with the previous estimate of between 7.7% and 88% from last year. Uncertainty related to energy policy, license renewals, shutdowns and future constructions accounts for the wide range.

10 10 Nuclear Power Worldwide IAEA 2015 projections Factors Weighing on Growth Prospects of nuclear power, leading to temporary delays in NPP deployment: Low prices for natural gas, Subsidized renewable energy sources, Global financial crisis, which presents hurdles for capital-intensive projects, Heightened safety requirements as a result of stress tests introduced in the wake of the Fukushima accident. Likely future retirement of many of the world s 438 nuclear reactors currently in operation, more than half of which are over 30 years old.

11 11 Nuclear Power Worldwide IAEA 2015 projections Regional Breakdown: -Policies and developments in the more than 30 countries considering or planning their first NPP also play a role in the projections. -IAEA s recently updated guidance documents Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power which forms the basis for its assistance to these newcomer countries -Middle East: United Arab Emirats, building its first NPPs -South Asia: India, driving the expansion and constructing 6 NPPs in that region, capacity growth projected at 25.9 GW(e) by 2030 in the low case scenario from the current 6.9 GW(e), rising to 43.8 GW(e) in the high case scenario -Growth also projected in Eastern Europe: Russia (9, reactors under construction), Belarus (building its first reactors). in that region, capacity growth projected in low case scenario in at 64.1 GW(e) by 2030 from the current 49.7 GW(e), with capacity increasing to 93.5(e) in high case scenario.

12 12 Nuclear Power Worldwide IAEA 2015 projections Regional Breakdown: -Policies and developments in the more than 30 countries considering or planning their first NPP also play a role in the projections. -IAEA s recently updated guidance documents Milestones in the Development of a National Infrastructure for Nuclear Power which forms the basis for its assistance to these newcomer countries -Middle East: United Arab Emirats, building its first NPPs -South Asia: India, driving the expansion and constructing 6 NPPs in that region, capacity growth projected at 25.9 GW(e) by 2030 in the low case scenario from the current 6.9 GW(e), rising to 43.8 GW(e) in the high case scenario -Growth also projected in Eastern Europe: Russia (9, reactors under construction), Belarus (building its first reactors). in that region, capacity growth projected in low case scenario in at 64.1 GW(e) by 2030 from the current 49.7 GW(e), with capacity increasing to 93.5(e) in high case scenario.

13 13 Nuclear Power Worldwide IAEA 2015 projections Far East: biggest expansion expected, especially in China and the Republic of Korea, which are building 24 and 4 reactors respectively. In the low case, capacity growth projected at GW(e) by 2030 from the current 87.1 GW(e) (low case scenario), and, in the high case scenario to 219 GW(e) Western Europe: by contrast, seeing as experiencing the biggest decline. Apart from the UK, Germany s phase out, no other plans in France or anywhere else Low projections estimate a decrease in capacity to 62.7 GW(e) by 2030 from the current GW(e). The high projections estimate a decline to 112 GW(e). North America: also seen a fall in its nuclear capacity In the low case scenario to 92 GW(e) by 2030 from the current GW(e). The high projections, however, estimate an increase to GW(e).

14 14 Nuclear Power in France NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT

15 15 15 Electricity production by sources Electricity Production : 564 TWh in 2014

16 16 16 Why Nuclear Power? Environment Economics Energy Security Reduced dependence on import of fossil fuels High energetic density

17 17 17 France s Answer to Oil Shock: Nuclear Power Crude oil price ($/barrel) Oil Crisis - Nuclear energy experience - Few natural resources - Need to minimize import NUCLEAR POWER Massive deployment after 1973 oil crisis (Standardized PWR technology)

18 18 Fast Deployment of Nuclear Power Nuclear Oil and Gas Coal Renewables Hydro Nuclear = 75% of production* Nuclear + Hydro = 90% of production* * 2012, RTE

19 19 Nuclear Power in France TODAY S FLEET AND ACTORS

20 20 20 Main Nuclear Actors in France Nuclear Power Plants Operator Fuel Cycle + Reactor Design & Maintenance R&D Safety Authority TSO for Safety, Safeguards, Security Waste Manageme nt Learned Society

21 21 Today s Nuclear Fleet One operator 19 stations 58 PWRs + 1 under construction 63 GWe 406 TWh/year* * 2012, EDF

22 22 22 Technology: Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) All 58 operating commercial reactors are PWRs

23 23 A Standardized Fleet 3 generations, 6 series of reactors: - 3 series of 900 MWe CP0, CP1, CP2-2 series of 1,300 MW P4 and P 4-1 series of 1,450 MWe N4 + 1 EPR under construction 63 GWe 34 reactors 20 reactors 4 reactors 76 months average construction time /Mwh 2000 reactor-years' OEF World s highest level of standardization

24 24 Benefits of Standardization Simplified authorization processes: - Series-based authorizations by the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) - Within a series, few differences: - Heat sink - Connections to power grid - Foundations - Savings: - Less man-hours/reactor after 1 st reactor - Lower building costs - Long-term planning for subcontractors Investments reduced by 30-40% Reactor-specific authorizations

25 25 Current and Future Upgrades New Build 1,300 MWe: uprate 20 reactors by 7% starting TWh/yr 1,650 MW-EPR under construction (Flamanville 3) Several aging reactors Life extension to 60 years? ( ) Progressive renewal Rate? Flamanvill

26 26 EdF s «Grand Carénage» Program The «Grand Carénage»: EdF s industrial program, aimed at renovating and enhancing the safety of its existing nuclear fleet, and, if the conditions are met, extend its lifetime. Investment estimate: 55 billion over , which will comprise : Recurring investments to maintain the nuclear fleet at its current level ; Additional investments to allow for the extension, beyond 40 years, of the fleet lifetime. The «Grand Carénage»: task of wide magnitude, due to 3 reasons : Life cycle : French fleet built over a short period of time (~15 years). Renewal of large components thus to be performed over a concentrated period of time (~10 years), that is 25~35 years after start of operation. Significant safety improvements, following the Fukushima accident. To be implemented in a very tight schedule, and under stringent regulations: For e.g., the diesel backups have to be operational by In addition to these improvements, need to account for the important «safety step» required for lifetime extension beyond 40 years. Need to make up for a period of low investments in the early years of 2000, which led to numerous flaws, causing the halt of several NPPs between 2000 and 2010.

27 27 27 Le Grand Carénage (EdF)*

28 28 The «Grand Carénage»: the most competitive solution

29 29 29 The «Grand Carénage» And what after? The «Cliff Effect», if all reactors are shutdown around the same age Installed capacity of nuclear fleet according to the lifetime Need to allow for 60 years of operation, in order to spread out the shutdown of NPPs, between 50 years for the oldest ones, and 60 years for the youngest ones

30 30 30 The Closed Fuel Cycle A major feature of the French nuclear policy Approach: - UOX spent fuel processed - U recycled ( 4 reactors) - Pu recycled (22 reactors) Benefits: - U resources savings - Pu inventory control - Pu in spent MOX

31 31 The reorganization of the French nuclear industry* Announcement in June by French government: transfer of AREVA NP, reactor division of Areva, to EDF. EDF AREVA Potential Minority Partners Among the goals sought: improving Areva s financial situation and strengthening France s nuclear industry. EDF will acquire 51% to 75% stake in Areva NP, which is in charge of designs and manufactures of nuclear reactors and provides a range of operation and maintenance services for existing reactors. Areva will retain a 25% stake in Areva NP. Areva s strategy is to refocus on the nuclear fuel cycle and continue to produce innovative products for its customers. Majority interest Majority interest Minority interest AREVA NP Joint entity for new reactors Minority interest Creation of a new joint-venture company by EDF and Areva NP to spearhead new reactor projects.

32 32 Nuclear Power in France ENERGY POLICY

33 33 *

34 34 The Energy Transition Law National energy debate: January - June 2013 Energy transition bill adopted by Parliament in July 2015 Green-house gas emissions: Fossil fuel consumption: -30% by % by 2030, -75% by 2050 (/1990) Renewables: 23% by 2030, 32% by 2030* Nuclear: 75% 50% by 2025** Total energy consumption: Objectives -50% by 2050 (/2012)

35 35 35 World Nuclear Exhibition 2016

36 36 36 Conclusion Nuclear = remains the main component of the French Energy mix However : Major developments in the French energy sector Potential for more synergies between France and Japan in the nuclear filed Need to investigate this potential and make the best of it to deepen our bilateral ties.