Understanding the benefits of bioenergy

Transcription

1 climate forest-based Understanding the benefits of bioenergy Stop the iwuc!!! Forest carbon time bomb???? C payback time? Fight C debt!!!! Annette Cowie Task 38 & Göran Berndes Task 43 1

2 Question for society: Will bioenergy help mitigate climate change? A bit more elaborated for the case of forest bioenergy: Will bioenergy incentives result in a positive, negative or neutral influence on carbon stocks in forests, and how does this affect the climate change mitigation benefits of bioenergy, and the timing of such benefits? 2

3 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration when biomass from existing managed forests is used for energy to displace fossil fuels Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL 20, 2014 Next year, in December, delegates from more than 190 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the 21st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 1997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the 20th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the The world has only about 15 years left in which to begin to bend the emissions curve downward. Otherwise NYT editorial, April 20, 2014

4 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration when biomass from existing managed forests is used for energy to displace fossil fuels Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL 20, 2014 Next year, in December, delegates from more than 190 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the 21st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 1997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The world has only Since it is urgent to reduce GHG emissions we about 15 years left in should only invest in options that deliver which to begin to bend almost immediate net GHG savings and help the emissions curve reaching near term GHG reduction targets downward. Otherwise The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the 20th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the NYT editorial, April 20, 2014

5 Conceptual level: varying perspectives and agendas If you extract biomass from a forest stand and use it for energy, then the carbon in the biomass is immediately lost to the atmosphere. If the avoided fossil carbon emissions are lower than the carbon emissions associated with the biomass use for energy you create a carbon debt that needs to be paid before the bioenergy systems reduces net GHG emissions... Before a tree can be burned it has to grow by absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. Theories on carbon debt and payback time of biomass are not credible, because they are based on the unrealistic assumption that trees are first burned and then grown...

6 Stem Volume, Million m 3 sk Policy and strategy development: varying conditions, uncertainties, time horizons Annual Increment Gross felling Year Sweden, late 19 th century: forest planting in response to a reforestation policy to secure raw material supply for the forest industry. Forest owners were also required to reforest after felling a law that has been effective up to present time, combined with an ambition to not harvest above the level of annual increment over time Increment and fellings: how are these affected when the forest sector adapts to anticipated increases in bioenergy demand?

7 Policy and strategy development: varying conditions, uncertainties, time horizons Fires Forest harvesting Flooding Carbon balance in Canadian forests: large influence of natural disturbances makes it difficult to assess how forest operations will affect carbon stocks in the forest landscape over time. Pictures: David Paré and Evelyne Thiffault, NRCAN-CFS

8 Policy and strategy development: varying conditions, uncertainties, time horizons Burn baby burn? Trees killed by spruce budworm: some believe that the climate effects of using logs for energy can be determined easily based on simple material balances while others understand that it is more complicated and that climate effects of using forest biomass for bioenergy is context specific rather than feedstock specific Picture: Evelyne Thiffault, NRCAN-CFS

9 Policy and strategy development: Ultimately depends on objective Use some biomass to displace fossil fuels so we can meet nearterm GHG targets; minimize effects in agriculture and forest sectors that should primarily produce food and biomaterials Burn baby burn?

10 Policy and strategy development: Ultimately depends on objective Develop bioenergy systems that contribute substantially to the future energy supply which requires that agriculture and forestry sectors evolves towards a future situation where they can provide food, biomaterials and bioenergy (which might even become the largest biomass use in the longer term) Burn baby burn?

11 Cumulative CO2 emissions From the perspective of global temperature targets, scientists have estimated a concentration of atmospheric GHGs that should not be exceeded Remaining emission space up to % probability of staying below 2 C 75% probability of staying below 2 C Fossil fuel use Fossil fuel use since mid 1970s Land use change

12 Cumulative CO2 emissions The difference between current concentrations and this threshold can be considered the atmospheric capacity for GHG emissions the emissions space Remaining emission space up to % probability of staying below 2 C 75% probability of staying below 2 C Fossil fuel use Fossil fuel use since mid 1970s Land use change

13 Cumulative CO2 emissions One critical strategic question is how society should use the remaining space for GHG emissions Remaining emission space up to % probability of staying below 2 C 75% probability of staying below 2 C Fossil fuel use Fossil fuel use since mid 1970s Land use change

14 Some of the emission space might be required for developing a bioenergy industry capable of providing renewable and climate friendly energy services for the world on a long term Remaining emission space Fill it up with fossil carbon Reversible (and can be negative Non-fossil from the fuel start) related...or use some space for developing alternatives to fossil fuels? LUC for bioenergy Non-fossil fuel related

15 Development of new energy and transport systems will take time and the development process will in itself be associated with GHG emissions Sorry, this railway bridge cannot be built: too long carbon payback time...

16 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration when biomass from existing managed forests is used for energy to displace fossil fuels Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL 20, 2014 Next year, in December, delegates from more than 190 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the 21st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 1997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The world has only Since it is urgent to reduce GHG emissions we about 15 years left in should only invest in options that deliver which to begin to bend almost immediate net GHG savings and help the emissions curve reaching near term GHG reduction targets downward. Otherwise The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the 20th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the NYT editorial, April 20, 2014

17 Timing of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration when biomass from existing managed forests is used for energy to displace fossil fuels Running Out of Time - NYTimes.com / nyti.ms/ RCRyHv THE OPINION PAGES EDITORIAL NYT NOW Running Out of Time By THE EDITORIAL BOARD APRIL 20, 2014 Next year, in December, delegates from more than 190 nations will gather in Paris to take another shot at completing a new global treaty on climate change. This will be the 21st Conference of the Parties under United Nations auspices since the first summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in For the most part, these meetings have been exercises in futility, producing just one treaty in Kyoto in 1997 that asked little of the big developing countries and was never ratified by the United States Senate. But if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s most recent report is to be taken seriously, as it should be, the Paris meeting may well be the world s last, best chance to get a grip on a problem that, absent urgent action over the next decade, could spin out of control. The world has only Since it is urgent to reduce GHG emissions we about 15 years left in should only invest in options that deliver which to begin to bend almost immediate net GHG savings and help the emissions curve reaching near term GHG reduction targets downward. Otherwise The I.P.C.C., composed of thousands of the world s leading climate scientists, has issued three reports in the last seven months, each the product of up to six years of research. The first simply confirmed what has been known since Rio: global warming is caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels by humans and, to a lesser extent, by deforestation. The second, released in Japan three weeks ago, said that profound effects were already being felt around the world, including mounting damage to coral reefs, shrinking glaciers and more persistent droughts, and warned of worse to come rising seas, species loss and dwindling agricultural yields. The third report, released last week, may be the most ominous of the three. Despite investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy sources in the United States, in Europe and in developing countries like China, annual emissions of greenhouse gases have risen almost twice as fast in the first decade of this century as they did in the last decades of the 20th century. This places in serious jeopardy the emissions target agreed upon in Rio to limit warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the NYT editorial, April 20, 2014

18 Some of the emission space might be required for developing a bioenergy industry capable of providing renewable and climate friendly energy services for the world on a long term Remaining emission space Fill it up with fossil carbon Reversible (and can be negative Non-fossil from the fuel start) related...or use some space for developing alternatives to fossil fuels? LUC for bioenergy Non-fossil fuel related

19 Understanding the benefits of bioenergy Good management of resources - benefiting from complementarity of different land use systems - can deliver food, materials and bioenergy AND improve the state of soils, water, ecosystem quality 19

20 Understanding the benefits of bioenergy Task 43 work plan for WP1: Landscape management and design for bioenergy and the bio-economy WP2: Developing effective supply chains for sustainable bioenergy deployment WP3: Governing land use and bioenergy supply chains 20

21 Negative cost Understanding the benefits of bioenergy Average production cost for Sweden Average production cost value of environmental service PJ/yr Salix field irrigated with pre-treated municipal sewage in Enko ping, Sweden. Environmental services included: treatment of landfill leachate, municipal wastewater and sludge, capture of nutrients in runoff, phytoextraction of cadmium, erosion control, soil fertility improvement and soil C sequestration, improved game potential. 21