Office of Emergency Response

Transcription

1 IAEA Global Emergency Preparedness and Response October 19-23, 2015 This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The Department of Homeland Security sponsored part of the production of this material. LLNL-PRES Office of Emergency Response CONSEQUENCE Federal Radiological Monitoring Assessment Center CRISIS Radiation Emergency Assistance Center / Training Site REAC/TS FRMAC NRAT Nuclear / Radiological Advisory Team Aerial Measuring System National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center AMS NARAC ERO Nuclear Incident Team SRT JTOT Search Response Team Joint Technical Operations Team Radiological Assistance Program RAP ARG Accident Response Group 2 1

2 11/2/2015 April, 1979 Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident April 26, 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident March 11 May 28, 2011 Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident June 26 - July 1, 2011 Las Conchas Wildfire, NM November 26, 2011 Mars Science Laboratory Launch, Cape Kennedy, FL February 14-20, 2014 Waste Isolation Pilot Plant radioactivity venting Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES LLNL Computer Systems Central System: Automated model set-up and execution software Measurement CBRN Material Dose/Risk Weather Data & Geographic/Terrain Data Data Property Data Factor Data Forecasts Data-driven Source Prompt Effects 3-D Meteorological, Dispersion modeling tools models Models and Fallout Models Mapping and product Population, casualty and generation software fatality estimation Remote Access Computer System Internet/Intranet HotSpot EPICode Standalone models and mapping Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory External user access via Webbased tools User interfaces and Analysis Tools for LLNL scientists 24/7 expert scientific staff (< 5 min. reach-back) Detailed analysis Source estimation Expert interpretation Quality assurance Training LLNL-PRES

3 Standard plot sets Plume hazard areas Affected population numbers Expected health effects Protective action guide levels Geographical information One-page map summary plots Multi-page consequence reports Expanded descriptions Input data and assumptions Interpretation guides Briefing Products Focus on actions and decisions that need to be considered RDD, IND, nuclear power plants, chemicals, and biological agents Developed with interagency consensus Consequence Reports One page summaries Briefing Products Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES Local Local responders CMweb: Web site for distribution of US DOE Consequence Management information and products NARAC Web: Web site providing access to NARAC modeling tools and products NARAC is the primary provider of radiological/nuclear products for the Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) Federal State/regional Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES

4 Access via secure login and password controlled easy-to-use Web-based tool to NARAC modeling capabilities Available to IAEA and member state users approved by US DOE/NNSA Allows authorized users to: Run fully-automated NARAC radiological atmospheric dispersion and dose calculations with real-time weather data Receive analyses produced by NARAC expert staff Share predictions, data, and other event information with other users Customized to use protective action limits and levels based on international standards Compatible with other GIS systems (e.g., US DOE-hosted International Radiation Mapping Application - IRMA) IXP web IAEA Incident and Emergency Centre Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) 47 Member States + 1 Economy Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES Export plumes to Google Earth (FEMA) Worldwide Google Street and satellite displays Available on NARAC/CM/IXP Web PDF, PowerPoint, HTML/XML, JPG/PNG graphics, ESRI Shape and Google Earth KMZ GIS files with plume areas Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES

5 Set 1.Initial automated plot (unit release of generic gas/aerosol) Set 2.Quality assured plots based on initial event data Set 3.Updated plot using initial field measurements Response initiated via automated Webrequest or Emergency Call(only release time and location are known) Plot based on identification of material, updated source location, detailed weather Source scaled to initial set of measurements Sets 4+. Relocation and food-ingestion plots Set 5. Refined model results with improved accuracy from more extensive sets of field data Iterative updates of products based on field data and other observations Set 4.Refined health-effects plots based on source term estimates derived from field measurements Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES Web-based Mission Planning Tool estimates dose to field teams (ground / aerial missions, evacuation) CM Event Creation Wizard organizes multiple types of data and facilitates information sharing Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES

6 Nuclear Detonation sourcemodels: LLNL KDFOC LLNL LWAC ORNL ORIGEN ORNL DELFIC RDD Source models: SNL Source Term Calculator SNL PUFF SNL ScatterMe Nuclear power and fuel sources: NRC RASCAL Fire source model: LLNL NucDet(IND) and RDD prompt effects models: SNL Nuke SNL Blast LLNL LWAC 3-D Atmospheric Dispersion and Fallout models: LLNL ADAPT/LODI Products: Airborne and ground contamination for public exposures (evacuation / sheltering, relocation) Affected population and casualty estimates Worker protection (stay times) Building damage from blast overpressure Radiation, blast and thermal casualty estimates Neutron-activation ground shine dose Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES % respirableparticles 25% respirable, 30% inorganic gas, 45% organically-bound gas, Collaborative effort with US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Expanded electronic files to share/import complex nuclear power plant release information into NARAC model simulations Default set of nuclear reactor release scenarios (iodine gas partitioning example shown above) Ground-shine dose without ballistic particle correction Ground-shine dose with ballistic particle correction Explosive dispersal model improvements based on experimental data Ballistic particle (>100 µm) corrections Activity/particle size and height distributions for different surfaces Cloud-top heights and model evaluation (Israel Greenfield and Canadian field experiments) Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES

7 Enhanced tools to support emergency response community Data assimilation and data fusion methods Higher-resolution physical process models (e.g., urban modeling) Improvements incommunicating technical data and facilitating interagency information sharing Preparedness via interagency drills, exercises, updated operational procedures, and advanced training High-resolution building-resolving simulation including deposition Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES Web: narac.llnl.gov 7

8 Enhanced tools to support emergency response community Data assimilation and data fusion methods Higher-resolution physical process models (e.g., urban modeling) Improvements in communicating technical data and facilitating interagency information sharing Preparedness via interagency drills, exercises, updated operational procedures, and advanced training LES simulation including building deposition Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LLNL-PRES