Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in (SIDS) A Proposed Methodological Framework

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1 Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in (SIDS) A Proposed Methodological Framework Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions (C-Change Project) June 1 st -3 rd 2011 Presented by Chiedozie Dickson Osuala & Sherry Ann Ganase Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

A focus on SIDS Proposed methodological framework Conclusion & Next Steps

2 Outline Brief introduction to climate change Climate-related vulnerability Measuring vulnerability to climate change Who are most vulnerable? A focus on SIDS Proposed methodological framework Conclusion & Next Steps Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

3 Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

4 What is Climate Change? Climate change in IPCC parlance refers to any changes over climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007). Climate change and its attendant effects have been widely acknowledged as a major threat to socio ecological systems in the 21 st century (Pelling & Uitto 2001). Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

5 Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

Vulnerability to climate change is defined as a characteristic of a system and a function of exposure,

6 Concept of Climate-Related Vulnerability Vulnerability includes the attributes of persons or groups that enable them to cope with the impact of disturbances, like natural hazards (Janssen & Ostrom 2006). Vulnerability to climate change is defined as a characteristic of a system and a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (Adger 2006). Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

7 Measuring Vulnerability to Climate Change Environmental Vulnerability Index (SOPAC, UNEP). Social Vulnerability Index (Vincent 2004; St. Bernard 2007). Livelihood Vulnerability Index (Hahn et al. 2009). Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

8 Environmental Vulnerability Index Aim: To identify specific problems with the natural environments of countries. Advantage: It can be easily explained and applied to countries. Disadvantage: A Major criterion was not met. Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

9 Social Vulnerability Index Aim: To identify the vulnerability of societal systems. Advantage: Simplicity, Cost efficiency and Transparency Disadvantages: Questions arise over: Data quality and availability Constructing validity. Questions not yet resolved Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

10 Livelihood Vulnerability Index Aim: Developed to account for the socioeconomic vulnerability. Advantage: Variation & Applicability Disadvantage: Not applicable to other populations. Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

Environmental & economic Factors Conference

11 Who Are Most Vulnerable? A Focus on SIDS Small Size Demographic Factors Insularity & Remoteness Vulnerability Disaster Mitigation Capacity Environmental & economic Factors Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

12 IPCC Projections for SIDS (Caribbean Region) Attributes of SIDS in Caribbean Region Climate & Weather Sea level rise Socio-economic Stresses Increased pressure on island Resources Interaction between human and physical stress Projected Estimation Increased temperature and lower rainfall 50cm SLR results in 60% coastal beach loss in Grenada 10mm SLR will result in total loss of mangrove ecosystem by 2035 in Antigua & Barbuda Impact on GDP (Agriculture & Fisheries). 0.5m SLR results in 35% drop in turtle nesting habitats High cost in beach nourishment & maintenance Coral bleaching Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

13 Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

14 Vulnerability Assessment in SIDS: A Proposed Framework Step 1: Define study Area Step 2: Familiarize oneself with the vulnerable system. Step 3: Hypothesize who is vulnerable to what? Step 4 :Develop a causal model of vulnerability. (a)livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI). (b) Social & Environmental Vulnerability Index Step 5:Find indicators for the elements of vulnerability. Step 6:Operationalize model of vulnerability Step 7: Project Future Vulnerability. Step 8: Communicate Vulnerability with an aim to Reducing Vulnerability. Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

15 Step 4a: Calculating LVI (Composite Index Approach) LVI includes 7 major components: Socio demographic profile. Livelihood & Economic strategies. Social networks. Health. Sustenance Water Natural disaster LVI uses a balance weighted average approach (Sullivan et al. 2002). Each of the components are standardised Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

16 Step 4 (a): LVI Model Index Sc = S c S min / S max S min Where Sc is the original sub component for a Caribbean coastal community (c). M c = n i=1 index s c i / n Where Mc is one of the major 7 components for a Caribbean coastal community (c), s c i is the sub component LVI = 7 i=1 w Mi M ci / 7 i=1 W mi LVI is scale from 0 to 0.5, least and most vulnerable respectively Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

governance Resource allocation Communication architecture Livelihood strategies

17 Step 4 (b): Calculating EVI & SVI (Combined Approach) Hazards EVI (3) Intrinsic resilience Extrinsic resilience SVI (6) Education Health Security, social order and governance Resource allocation Communication architecture Livelihood strategies Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

the value of the variable Xi for the jth country Scores assumes standard format with Minimum of 0 and

18 Step 4 (b): EVI-SVI Model Index=1-V j Vj= ( Z ij ) / number of indicators Z ij = (a ij Min A i )/ (Max A i Min A i ) Where Max A i is the maximum value of the transformation X i aij is the transformation of the value of the variable Xi for the jth country Scores assumes standard format with Minimum of 0 and Maximum of 1 Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

Conclusions & Next Steps Climate change is a global problem. SIDS have high levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. SIDS need to adopt a climate smart policy.

19 Conclusions & Next Steps Climate change is a global problem. SIDS have high levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. SIDS need to adopt a climate smart policy. No distinctions between social and ecological systems within the context of climate related vulnerability. The proposed framework can be used as a communicational tool, to enhance awareness levels, with an aim to reducing vulnerability. Vulnerability indicators were quantified via the use of primary and secondary data. Application to Grande Riviere and Bequai Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

Thank you Name: Chiedozie Dickson Osuala Email: ctd.osuala@gmail.com Name: Sherry Ann Ganase Email: sherry_ganase@hotmail.com Name: Sonja S. Teelucksingh Email: sonja.

20 Thank you Name: Chiedozie Dickson Osuala Name: Sherry Ann Ganase Name: Sonja S. Teelucksingh Project website address: Conference on the Sustainable Development of Coastal Communities: Challenges & Solutions

Assessing the Vulnerability Level in Coastal Communities in the Caribbean: A Case Study of San Pedro, Belize

Assessing the Vulnerability Level in Coastal Communities in the Caribbean: A Case Study of San Pedro, Belize COTE 2013 October 10 th - 11 th 2013 Managing for Development in Caribbean Economies Addressing