Ninth ILO Meeting of Caribbean Labour Ministers

Transcription

1 Ninth ILO Meeting of Caribbean Labour Ministers Decent work for Sustainable Development Climate Change & Impact on Jobs Nassau, The Bahamas, 3-4 March,

2 Climate Change & Jobs 1.Brief overview of climate change and likely scenarios of future climate change. 2.Climate Change & the Caribbean possible impacts 3.Regional responses to date : 1. Adaptation. 2. Mitigation 4.Some job implications of climate change. 2

3 The Greenhouse Effect 3

4 The Global Climate Projections Unequivocal evidence that the earth s temperature is rising and attributable to anthropogenic activities Green House Gases Projected trends through 2100 Rise in global temperatures of between o C Sea level rise of between cm Changed weather patterns More intense extremes drought,floods More intense hurricanes 4

5 Caribbean Initiatives Regional Heads have endorsed: Liliendall Declaration. A Regional Framework For Achieving Development Resilient To Climate Change. An Implementation Plan for the Framework 5

6 CARIBBEAN INITIATIVES Suite of activities designed to determine: The extent of risk arising from climate change to which region will be exposed in future. The vulnerability of the region s natural and socioeconomic systems to climate change. The impacts of CC on the natural and socio-economic systems of the region. Regional response to mitigate those impacts and costs for implementing. Implementation of mitigative actions ( ADAPTATION) Building regional capacity to carry out the above actions 6

7 REASES Projected Temperatures for the Caribbean 7

8 Projected Rainfall for the Caribbeanfo the Caribbean% CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION 8

9 IMPACTS Consequences of: Higher Temperatures Sea Level Rise Sea Surface Temp. Rise Changed Weather Patterns 9

10 Impact of 2 o C rise on Agriculture in Belize Preliminary studies on the impact on the staples - corn, beans and rice for 2 o C warmer and +/- 20% change in precipitation Crop Dry beans C3 Rice C3 Maize C4 Scenario Name Baseline Carib A Baseline Carib A Baseline Carib A Season Length (days) Temperature Change ( o C) % Change in precipitation Yield (kg/ha) % change in Yield -14% -19% -10% -14% -22% -17% 10

11 SLR IMPACTS 1m Global temperatures and the SLR are linked SLR in the Caribbean has paralleled global trends over the last 40 years With a C in mean global temperatures, the magnitude of SLR may slow versus recent observations +2 0 C in mean global temperature, the rapid increase in SLR will continue Gravitational and geophysical factors will lead the region to be more seriously affected by SLR than most areas of the world SLR in northern Caribbean may exceed global average by up to 25% Impact of tropical storms and hurricanes on coastlines, even at present levels, will be intensified as sea level rises SLR will continue for centuries after 2100, even if global temperatures are stabilized at 1.5 C or 2.0 C 11

12 SLR IMPACTS 1m Over 2,700 km 2 land area lost (10% of The Bahamas) Market value of undeveloped land lost is over US$ 70 billion Over 100,000 people displaced (8% of population in Suriname, 5% of The Bahamas, 3% Belize) Cost to rebuild basic housing, roads and services (water, electricity) for displaced population approximately US$ 1.8 billion Annual GDP losses of at least US$ 1.2 billion (over 6% in Suriname, 5% in The Bahamas, 3% in Guyana and Belize) Over 1% agricultural land lost, with implications for food supply and rural livelihoods (4% in Suriname, 3% in The Bahamas, 2% in Jamaica) 12

13 IMPACT OF WARMER SEA TEMPERATURE More frequent episodes of Coral Bleaching since the 1980s 13

14 Dolphin fish Habitat becomes less favourable +1 C 14

15 Increased incidences of unusually heavy rainfall One of many flood events in Georgetown, Guyana (2005, 2006 and 2007) August 31, 2007 Belize City, Belize Tropical wave dumped over 11 inches of rain in less than 9 hours 15

16 Increasing Resilience To Climate Change ADAPTATION 16

17 PV and SWRO Systems - Bequia SWRO System Grid connected PV System 17

18 WATER RECYCLING 18

19 RECYCLED WATER USE

20 USE OF RAINWATER HARVESTED -20-

21 Increasing Resilience To Climate Change MITIGATION 21

22 MITIGATION IN THE CARIBBEAN All CARICOM countries except T&T net energy importers. Strong dependence on fossil fuel potential to reverse developmental gains achieved over the last 2-3 decades. Regional scenario of limited resources & >> cost of energy putting a severe drain on limited financial resources 116 Mb in 1985 costing US $ 530 m 160 Mb in 2004 costing US $6.5 B At 2008 prices US $15b in some cases requiring countries to devote 50% of foreign exchange earnings to purchase fuel W.R.T to CC mitigation region contributes << 1% to global GHG budget however opportunity to place the regional energy sector on a more sustainable footing 22

23 MITIGATION (ENERGY) Region economy highly Carbon intensive & not as competitive as it can be. Heavy outflow of foreign ex. to meet escalating energy bill. Endogenisation of regional energy sources coupled with effective demand and supply side management practices regarded as essential part of region s adaptive strategy. Mitigation is now an essential part of the region s adaptation strategy. 23

24 LILIENDALL DECLARATION 7. Strong determination to overcome technical, economic and policy barriers to facilitate the development, diffusion and deployment of appropriate and affordable low- and zeroemission technologies and renewable energy services; We also recognise the need for energy efficiency and conservation and the need for increased technical and financial support for the development of renewable energy in the Caribbean; 24

25 REGIONAL RE INITIATIVES Solar water heating Barbados W20.7 MW Wigton Wind Energy Farm Jamaica 33 MW wind energy farm Dominican Republic a $100 million wind power project built by public and private investors and Vestas wind turbines, began operating earlier this month (October) 30 MW wind energy farm at Vader Piuet Aruba Geothermal development in Nevis, Saint Lucia, Dominica. 25

26 ENERGY EFFICIENCY Regional Energy Efficiency Program (PEER) GEF financed UNDP Implementation /BUN CA Execution Investment - $5.7 M US in more efficient equiqment and adoption of best practices : 183 companies saved $ 4.2 M US in electricity use between 2006 & Reduction in electricity consumption of MWh Avoid emission of 31,000 tons Carbon Dioxide 26

27 Worker well-being Work place safety Comfort JOB IMPLICATIONS Prevalence of vector borne diseases Adoption of new working modalities e.g. Agriculture greater use of climate information, crop rotation & diversification, varietal selection, drip irrigation, water harvesting & storage, mulching, organic farming. Fisheries adjustment to establishment of MPAs, change of gear to exploit fishing in deeper areas, habitat restoration, alternative livelihoods (seaweed farming, mariculture). 27

28 Job implications New job opportunities in the energy sector: Solar water heating, photovoltaics manufacture, installation & servicing. Wind energy manufacture, installation, operation, servicing and maintenance Hydroelectricity & geothermal. Biomass conversion waste to energy e.g biogas, cogeneration (woodwaste, bagassse, rice husks), Arundo donax (wild cane) Biofuels waste oil (Restaurants), indigenous feedstock (cohune, kokerite, coconut) Energy efficiency energy audits, retrofitting, architectural modifications 28

29 Job Implications Would require enabling policy at the government level e.g. Energy sector to allow for such activities like net metering, Feed in Tariffs, and the incorporation of climate risks into National Development Plans latter ensures that adaptive measures are in place for any major development initiative. Trained work force to take advantage of the new opportunities presented by climate change implications for the Education Ministry. City and Guilds are already providing training courses in of the new skill areas installation & servicing equipment for use of solar & wind energy. 29

30 Let s Connect! Dr Ulric Trotz Deputy Director and Science Advisor utrotz@caribbeanclimate.bz 30