Status of Climate Change Actions in the Virgin Islands

Transcription

1 Status of Climate Change Actions in the Virgin Islands CYNARA DUNCAN, ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION OFFICER CONSERVATION AND FISHERIES DEPARTMENT CACCE WORKSHOP, MAYAGUEZ, PUERTO RICO FEBRUARY 1-3, 2012

2 Overview of the Enhancing Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in the UKOTs (ECACC) Project Institutional mechanism to address climate change Education ECACC Ecosystem and climate monitoring Adaptation Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) Goal: building capacity for adaptation and mainstreaming climate change

3 Ensuring climate change work continues beyond the ECACC Project Institutional Mechanism to Address Climate Change

4 Institutional Mechanism to Address Climate Change Climate change declared subject matter under Ministry of Natural Resources and Labour Climate Change Officer post created Local climate change annual small budget allocated National Climate Change Committee Cabinet approved in December 2008:

5 Enhancing climate data, coral reef and beach monitoring Enhanced Climate & Ecosystem Monitoring

6 Ecosystem and climate monitoring Increased weather station network (2 stations) Strengthened partnership with Reef Check Restarted beach monitoring programme

7 Understanding and quantifying climate change impacts to tourism Tourism Sector Vulnerability & Capacity Assessment

8 VCA Components Overview KAP Surveys Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Capacity Assessment Risk Reduction Options

9 VCA Components KAP surveys Tourist Perception Survey - 30% to 60% say significant influence on their decision to revisit BVI. Tourism managers - owners/managers are concerned about climate change impacts. General public - ~50% highly concerned climate change; ~ 90% say early adaptation is necessary, even if costly.

10 Tourist Perception Survey

11 VCA Components Hazard Vulnerability and Risk Assessment o o o Climate assessment Static risk maps tourism properties/infrastructure in most vulnerable areas Beach Vulnerability Assessment - 24% avg. loss for 0.18m rise, 34% for 0.39m, 46% for 0.59m, 68% for 1m, 94% for 2m. o Sea level rise vulnerability assessment land area lost with 2m rise = 6% (Tortola), 2% (Virgin Gorda), 78% Anegada, 2% Jost Van Dyke o Coral reef vulnerability assessment - total estimated decrease in reef value = $1,270,000 (= 25% of 2005 dive/snorkeling sector annual revenue ) o Risk assessment priority impact areas - Environment, Tourism and Water Resources

12 Static Risk Map

13 Beach Vulnerability Assessment Figure Areas of Lambert Bay that would be inundated by various sea level rise scenarios. A 0.18m rise results in 33% beach area loss, 0.39m rise results in 44% loss, 0.59m rise results in 56% loss, 1m rise results in 73% loss and 2m rise results in 103% loss by

14 0.18m Scenario 0.39m Scenario 0.59m scenario Rank Beach Inundate Beach Inundate Beach Inundated d d 1 Brewer s 38% Brewer s 53% Brewer s 73% (most inundation) Bay Bay Bay 2 Lambert 33% Lambert 44% Lambert Bay 56% Bay Bay 3 Beef Island 30% Beef Island 39% Beef Island 45% 4 Cane 12% Cane 24% Cane 37% Garden Bay Garden Bay Garden Bay 5 (least inundation) Josiah s Bay 7% Josiah s Bay 12% Josiah s Bay 17% 1m scenario 2m scenario Rank Beach Inundated Beach Inundated 1 Brewer s 93% Brewer s >>100% (most inundation) Bay Bay 2 Lambert Bay 73% Lambert 103% Bay 3 Cane 68% Cane 103% Garden Bay Garden Bay 4 Beef Island Beach 58% Josiah s Bay 85% 5 (least inundation) Josiah s Bay 48% Beef Island Beach 80%

15 SLR Maps Island Land area that would be inundated with a 2m sea level rise km 2 acres % of total area Tortola % Virgin Gorda % Anegada , % Jost Van Dyke %

16 Climate Assessment Results Rainfall in avg. annual rainfall, BUT seasonal changes avg. monthly rainfall during the tourist season; Temperature in avg. temp by 4.8 C by end of Century. in avg. temp by 1.4 C by period (enough to trigger mass bleaching events) Wind wind speed during the tourism season Relative humidity Comfort index # of days classified as uncomfortable

17 Climate Assessment Results 10% 5% 0% % Change in rainfall -5% -10% -15% Echam A2 Echam B2 Hadley A2 Hadley B2 Avg. of models -20% -25% -30% Figure Average percentage (%) change in rainfall (for future time periods examined) compared to the baseline ( ). All model scenarios and average/consensus of model scenarios are shown.

18 % Change in rainfall Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure Percentage (%) change in monthly rainfall (for future time periods examined) compared to the baseline. Average/consensus of model scenarios only is shown.

19 VCA Components Capacity Assessment Local CCC formed technical capacity needed e.g. in land use planning and engineering Urgent need for comprehensive environmental law and updated planning regs NIDP, PDP and other management plans needed to guide development

20 VCA Components Risk Reduction Options Specific adaptation measures proposed for each impact under each affected sector as outlined in the draft Climate Change Policy Diversify and increase resilience of economic sectors Improve environmental protection, disaster management and development planning.

21 Developing consensusbased, no-regrets strategies to minimize climate change impacts Adaptation Planning

22 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report

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24 Impacts Happening Now Coral bleaching Flood events 2003 US $19,147, record dengue outbreaks

25 Stakeholder Consultation Approach Country Vulnerability Profile 1 st Stakeholder Consultation Climate Change Issues Paper 2 nd Stakeholder Consultation Climate Change Green Paper 3 rd Stakeholder Consultation Draft Climate Change Policy Final Stakeholder Consultation Cabinet Approved Climate Change Adaptation Policy

26 Building public and political awareness Public Education and Outreach

27 Print Media / Internet Climate Change and Tourism Brochure (November, 2008) Newspaper mini series (May June,2009) Christian ads in newspaper (September, 2009) Poster series (October, 2009) Articles in the Hurricane Guide (June, 2009) Update of CFD website (September, 2009)

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31 Radio and TV TV and Radio talk show appearances and radio reports Minister s World Environment Day Address (June 5 th ) Climate change radio nuggets (May, 2009) DDM TV (Focus) two 1hr features Climate change radio soap opera series (coming soon)

32 Film JNCC DVD distribution (May June) Islands on the Edge: A Look at Climate Change in the Caribbean Climate Change in the UK Overseas Territories. Public screening of An Inconvenient Truth (June)

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34 Students / Public Display Logo competition (June September, 2009) Presentation to High School Science Department and Environmental Club (September, 2009) 350 beach event (October, 2009) Skit about health and safety in the workplace climate change aspect (2010) Parade for the Planet (June 10, 2010) Emancipation Festival Troupe Climate Change Messengers (August, 201 Climate Change and The Virgin Islands public exhibit (ongoing)

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36 BVI Participating in global 350 event!

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50 Political Directorate Presence at VCA Workshop, August 2008 Cabinet Paper Developing a Mechanism for Addressing Climate Change in The Virgin Islands Climate change: An overview for politicians and senior decision makers Climate change: What does it mean for tourism? Presence at Second Climate Change Stakeholder Consultation Presentation to Caucus, September 21, 2010 (Distribution of Green Paper)

51 Some Planned Activities Climate change overview brief for Ministers Climate change impact wall (along highway) Climate Change Student Guide 30 second video clip about climate change for Facebook and other online media

52 Adaptation Pilot Project Cane Garden Bay Vetiver grass erosion / flood control Permeable Interlocking Concrete Pavement flood control Ghut maintenance protocol flood control