Inclusive Growth: Building up a Concept

Transcription

1 Inequality, Social Protection and Inclusive Growth Global Development Medals Competition: Theme 3 - Inclusive Growth Inclusive Growth: Building up a Concept Rafael Ranieri Secretariat of International Affairs; Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management of Brazil Raquel Ramos Centre d Economie de Paris Nord; Sorbonne Paris Cité, France June 2013 Asian Development Bank Headquarters, Manila, the Philippines

2 Building up a Concept How far have we got in building up an understanding of Inclusive Growth (IG)? What needs further consideration? 2/13

3 Motivation Mapping IG performance in developing countries INDEX? What to measure? How to measure? 3/13

4 Policy Relevance Definition Objectives Evaluation Policy Output Outcomes Impacts Implementation 4/13

5 Building blocks Changing development thinking Pro-poor growth Inclusive growth 5/13

6 What we know Poverty and Inequality Reduction -Poverty and relative inequality - relative pro-poor growth (Rauniyar and Kanbur 2010) -Benefit everyone, while pro-poor growth below poverty line (Klasen2010) -Interchangeable with pro-poor growth; multidimensional poverty (Habito 2009) 6/13

7 What we know Poverty and Inequality Reduction Beyond income outcomes PROCESS MATTERS -Multiple dimensions (McKinley 2010) -Opportunities and their distribution (Ali and Son 2007) -Enlarge economy and increase productive employment (Ianchovichina and Lundstrom 2009); (AfDB 2012) -Growth in employment and productivity (Bhalla 2007) -Benefit-sharing and participation (Kakwani and Pernia 2000) -Outcomes and process (Klasen 2010) 7/13

8 What else we need to know Poverty and Inequality Reduction Beyond income outcomes What else? ADDRESSING KEY ISSUES 8/13

9 Addressing Key Issues What is the meaning of inclusion? Equality? Of what? - Opportunity? - Empowerment? Participation? Satisfation? Something else? 9/13

10 Addressing Key Issues (II) How to combine a number of elements of inclusion into a composite index? Does it make sense to do it? How many? Relative weights and interrelationships? Common unit of measurement? Data availability issues to operationalize Or should elements be considered on their own, not combined? 10/13

11 Addressing Key Issues (III) How to assess the relationship between growth and any element of inclusion? Can it be established that changes in inclusion result from growth? Must it be done to identify inclusive growth episodes? Or does it suffice to identify positive changes in inclusion that accompany growth? Or what matters is just increases in inclusion, regardless of economic growth (or contraction)? 11/13

12 Addressing Key Issues (IV) Are results in benefit and participation enough or is intent also necessary? Economic activity and implications National concerns and social forces shown in policies How to deal with crises? Worsening due to hardship non-inclusive? Or the extent of mitigation of negative impacts and policy orientation matter? 12/13

13 Policy Relevance Definition Objectives Evaluation Policy Output Outcomes Impacts Implementation 13/13

14 Thank you!

15 AfDB (2012). Briefing Notes for AfDB s Long- Term Strategy Briefing Note 6: Inclusive Growth Agenda. Tunis, African Development Bank. Ali, I. and Son, H.H. (2007). Measuring Inclusive Growth, Asian Development Review, Vol. 24, No. 1: Berg, A. and Ostry, J. (2011). Equality and Efficiency: Is there a trade-off between the two or do they go hand in hand?, Finance and Development, 48(3), Grosse, M., Harttgen, K. and Klasen, S. (2008). Measuring Pro-Poor Growth in Non-Income Dimensions, World Development, Vol. 36, No. 6: Habito, C.F. (2009). Patterns of Inclusive Growth in Asia: Insights from an Enhanced Growth-Poverty Elasticity Analysis, ADBI Working Paper Series, No Tokyo, Asian Development Bank Institute. Ianchovichina, E. and Lundstrom, S. (2009). Inclusive Growth Analytics: Framework and References Application, Policy Research Working Paper, No Washington, DC, World Bank. Kakwani, N., Khandker, S. and Son, H. H. (2004). Pro-poor Growth: Concepts and Measurement with Country Case Studies, IPC-IG Working Paper, No. 1. Brasília, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth Klasen, S. (2010). Measuring and Monitoring Inclusive Growth: Multiple Definitions, Open Questions, and Some Constructive Proposals, ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, No. 12. Mandaluyong City, Philippines, Asian Development Bank. Kraay, A. (2004). When Is Growth Pro-Poor? Cross-Country Evidence, IMF Working Paper, No Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund.

16 References Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality, The American Economic Review, Vol. 45, No. 1: Lopez, J.H. (2004). Pro-poor growth: a review of what we know (and of what we don t know). Washington, DC, World Bank. McKinley, T. (2010). Inclusive Growth Criteria and Indicators: An Inclusive Growth Index for Diagnosis of Country Progress, ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series, No. 14. Mandaluyong City, Philippines, Asian Development Bank. Ramos, R.A., Ranieri, R. and Lammens, J.W. (2013). Mapping Inclusive Growth in Developing Countries, IPC-IG Working Paper, No Brasília, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. Rauniyar, G. and Kanbur, R. (2010). Inclusive Development: Two Papers on Conceptualization, Application, and the ADB Perspective. Mandaluyong City, Philippines, Asian Development Bank. Ravallion, M. (2004). Pro-poor Growth: A Primer. Washington, DC, World Bank Development Research Group. Rostow, W.W. (1956). The Take-Off Into Self- Sustained Growth, The Economic Journal, Vol. 66, No. 261: Stiglitz. J.E. and Squire, L. (1998). International Development: Is it Possible?, Foreign Policy, Issue 110: Zepeda, E. (2004). Pro-poor Growth: What Is It?, IPC-IG One Pager, No. 1. Brasília, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.