Agri-Value Chain Competitiveness Analysis. Stellenbosch University & BFAP
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1 Agri-Value Chain Competitiveness Analysis Team: Johan van Rooyen, Director Centre for AgriBusiness Analysis & Johann Boonzaaier, Heinrich Jantjies, PhD students; Dlikili, X, M student Stellenbosch University & BFAP FIRST PROGRESS REPORT NOV 2016
2 Content & Scope How to make COMPETITIVENESS THINKING a useful tool for strategic management consider, define the context of an industry and measure competitive performance over time - trend analysis the key Application to the SA Agricultural sector 1961, 2005, 2008, 2016 Selected industry case studies. Strategic directions to enhance competitive performance
3 The key issue: - Competitiveness. If you can measure it, you can manage it to get results; otherwise it just remains a good idea or theory The challenge: - Designing a systematic approach to measure and analyse competitive performance cycles, trends and shocks.
4 Sector/industry/firm level competitiveness? Comprehensive economy wide views available but not industry level: IMD WORLD COMPETITIVENESS YEARBOOK WEF - GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT Agri-focussed analysis: some but constrained views? Agri-benchmarking in fruit industry O Rourke, production cost based. Decision Support Model (DSM) & Market Attractiveness Index (MAI)? Profits; productivity; ROI; ROR, etc?
5 THE AGRI-COMPETITIVENESS ANALYSIS PROGRAMME (ACAP) Stellenbosch University 1. Approach and process: Define the agri-context tradable/non-tradable? Measurement reliable data base? Trend lines? Participative analysis - stakeholders/client inputs Participative strategic planning industry and or firm level; 2. Funding: WC Dept of Agriculture; Standard bank;.possible: Industry, agribusiness projects 3. Dissemination: Annual Agri-Competitiveness Seminar, publications, papers 4. Selected commodities currently /500+ lines Deciduous fruit, stone fruit, wine, dates, grains..
6 ACAP COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS: A Five Step analytical framework 1. DEFINITION Contextualise and define competitiveness 2. MEASUREMENT Empirically measure competitive performance 3. IDENTIFY FACTORS AND DETERMINANTS Identify, through interviews with industry experts and knowledgeable stakeholders (Executive Survey), trends and major factors impacting on competitive performance 4. ANALYSE Establish the major Determinants of Competitiveness through the application of the new competitiveness theory (Porter, 1990) 5. STRATEGY PLANNING Develop strategies to enhance the competitiveness of Agricultural Industries in SA Participative planning (Log Frames )
7 Step 1:DEFINING COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE The sustained ability of an industry to attract investment and scares resources by competitively trading products in the global marketplace, whilst continuously striving to earn at least the opportunity cost of resources engaged (Freebairn, 1987) Notions of: - Sustained international trade - Scarcity; opportunity cost; - Trends, cycles; - Tradeble vs Non Tradeble products
8 Competitiveness in short.. The ability to optimise your competitive advantage: Trade and keep trading; Selling products, services; ideas Sustain profits and invest; Engage, draw best production factors management, technical, labour, land, water, etc. Grow the business/industry
9 Step 2: Measuring competitive performance Relative Trade Advantage (RTA): (Balassa, 1965, 1989; Vollrath, 1991) - including imports & exports RTA: Ratio s of global trade value in a particular product (from Country A) vs Total global trade in that product.divided by. trade value in all products from Country A vs Global trade in all products Ex: Wine SA Trade vs Total Wine Trade vs alternative trade opportunities RTA> 0 = increasing competitiveness TRENDS winners and loosers
10 METHODOLOGY AND ANALYSIS: TRADE BASED MEASURES RER and PPP RCA and RTA Other Indices; EMS, NEI, GL STRATEGIC ANALYSIS & PLANNING Cost Measures Profitability Productivity and Efficiency RCA ij = RXA ij = X ij X ik / X nj X nk Vollrath (1991) Porter (1998) PORTER DIAMOND;EXEC SURVEYS; LOGFRAMES RMA ij = M ij M ik / M nj M nk Data & Info RTA ij = RXA ij - RMA ij (Balassa 1966, Vollrath 1991) Data: FAO STATS -1961; TRADEMAP COMPREHENSIVE ASSEMENTS
11 SA Agricultural competitiveness: long term trends War economy? 1st Deregulation Sanctions economy? Madiba Magic + Learning by doing Sustaining Global Comp. Protectionism
12 VALUE OF CURRENCY & COMPETITIVENESS
13 AGRO PROCESSING COMPETITIVENESS INDEX LOCAL VALUE ADDING PROCESSING, PACKAGING, BOTTLING, PROBLEMATIC!!!! (AgBIZ, 2015)
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18 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 1: Regulated, constrained Competitiveness; economic sanctions Phase 2: The Madiba Magic Period learning the trade ( ) Phase 3: Towards becoming a global player ( ) Phase 4: Operating in a constrained competitive environment ( )
19 Step 3: Which factors determine industry level competitive performance? Deciduous Fruit Case Executive Survey (views industry leaders, investors, producers, ceo s): Identify the major operational factors affecting competitive performance (2015 Deciduous Fruit Industry Exec Survey) Views in value chain clusters: - Cluster 1 Trade respondents in exporting and marketing (down stream value chain) - Cluster 2 Agribusiness respondents in primary production, winemaking, packaging processing (up-stream value chain)
20 10 %
21 84 Factors impacting on competitive performance
22 Step 4:Determinants of Competitive Industry Performance(The Porter Diamond)
23 Step 4: The major determinants of competitiveness Porter Diamond Analysis, 2015
24 Porter Diamond 2015
25 THE PORTER DETERMINANTS: Setting the agenda Focus group sessions inclusive value chain participation; Industry sessions; Commodity workshops Expert discussions
26 Production factor conditions
27 Demand/market factor conditions
28 Relating and supporting industries
29 Firm strategy, structure and rivalry
30 Government support and policies
31 Chance factors
32 STEP 5: STRATEGIC PLANNING In today s (agri) business, the competition will bite you if you keep running; if you stand still they will swallow you! (William Knutsen, Jr. Chairman, Ford Motor Company) RITY FOCUS
33 Noting the trends: wine industry competitive performance (Porter Diamond)
34 COOPERATIVE AGENDA SETTING: SA DECIDIOUS FRUIT INDUSTRY
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36 THANK YOU & REMEMBER BE COMPETITIVE!
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