Day 15: Decision Making

Transcription

1 Day 15: Decision Making Daniel J. Mallinson Political Science Stockton University POLS 2180 Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

2 Road map Learn and apply four theories of decision making Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

3 Mid-Semester Feedback Likes Notes on PPT Website Real-world examples Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

4 Mid-Semester Feedback Likes Notes on PPT Website Real-world examples Wants Explain memo assignments before due Make application more clear Interaction (videos, discussion, current events) Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

5 Theories of Decision Making Rational Decision Making Bargaining Participative Public Choice Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

6 Making Decisions Information Need information; politics of information control is important Values Value judgments are necessary when weighing options Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

7 Rational Choice Basic Steps 1 Define goals (values) 2 Identify alternatives 3 Calculate the consequences 4 Decide 5 Begin again Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

8 Let s make a decision... Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

9 Rational Choice Theory Optimize: maximize benefit and minimize cost Values and information are separate Assumptions: 1 Known preferences 2 Clear Goals (values) 3 Able to consider all alternatives (full information) 4 Able to anticipate full set of consequences of these alternatives Problems (info and values)? Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

10 Info and Values Challenges Information Impossible to consider all possibilities Cost of process Value judgments in satisficing Values Shifting and fuzzy goals Efficiency/equity trade-offs Elegant, but impractical Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

11 Bargaining (Incrementalism) Start at status quo Limited search for alternatives/info Weigh info and values together Make incremental change Decision is the one that is bargained most effectively, garners political support Recognizes political skills of decision makers Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

12 Let s make a decision... Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

13 Info and Values Challenges Information When to stop searching for info? How many alternatives to consider? How big of a step to take? Political consensus = decision Incremental growth Values Not all interests may be invited to bargain Submerging of the public interest Useful for description, not proscription Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

14 Participative Decision Making Allow those affected by a decision to participate in the process Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

15 Participative Decision Making Ambiguity 1 What does participation mean? Ambiguity 2 Who participates? 1 Employees of organization? 2 Clientele? 3 Taxpayers? 4 Voting public? Benefits? Drawbacks? Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

16 Participative Decision Making Information Benefit: Lots of information Drawback: Lost of information Values Dilemmas: Self-interest vs. no interest To much vs. too little representation Too much vs. too little power Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

17 Public Choice Public officials are self interested (values assumed) Avoid risk and promote careers Budget maximization is their goal Market provides information Result: Contracting out and privatization E.g., Pollution market Critiques? Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

18 Public Choice Information Does single-minded focus on power and money make as much sense in public sector as private? What about public service motivation? Values Assumption that goals and motives of public and private sectors identical Efficiency is not the only goal of gov t Some things are intrinsically public (public goods and theory of market failure) Contracts are not self-managed (market is not self-regulated) Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

19 Limits on Decision Making Uncertainty Can be enormous Information Pathologies Information condensed and filtered as it moves upward Crisis Sudden; high risk for wrong decisions Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

20 Bottom Line Each has descriptive (how decision making does work) and normative (how decision making should work) elements. Each has its own special virtues and idiosyncratic problems (Kettl, 285). Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20

21 Application You are now the Stockton University president and are tasked with making the decision of whether or not to raise tuition. What would the decision making process look like under your model? Mallinson Day 15 March 23, / 20