The Climate Change and Urban Impacts Toolbox Workshop - July 2012 Roadmap for Climate Change Adaptation Process

Transcription

1 The Climate Change and Urban Impacts box Workshop - July 2012 Roadmap for Climate Change Adaptation Process Steve Oldfield- Risk Management Specialist, MWH 1

2 Selecting the Right Where does the box fit in? How can the box help? What are my specific interests? What do I already have and know? Finding my way around the box A Framework to Guide Me 2

3 Climate Change Effects Data Modelling Decision Making Hierarchy Statutory Requirements Planning & Implementation box of methods designed to aid in the Management of climate change Risk Management Assessment of Options Risk Assessment Matrices Investigation and Modelling Science and data Adapted from presentation given by MfE May 2010 Protection of People, Property & Environment 3

4 Need for a Framework.? A framework is needed that provides for a balanced and justifiable prioritisation of sustainable climate change adaptations that are flexible to change given the current levels of uncertainty. To meet these needs it is proposed to use - Risk-based methods Formal decision making processes A tool-box approach, comprising of products and guidance A toolbox approach is advocated because the diversity of decisions to be made is not conducive to a onesize-fits-all approach 4

5 Why a Risk-based Approach? The severity of the effects of climate change are highly uncertain; there is a danger of under or over compensating Risk-based methods provide a means of explicitly accounting for uncertainty a justifiable means of focusing attention on where the need for action is greatest a means of assessing the effectiveness of and prioritising effort to get the best gains a means of assessing the tolerability of the residual risk 5

6 Developing the Decision Making Framework The high uncertainty and spatial variability of climate effects favours a stage approach in which attention is successively focused on issues and locations at greatest risk A three stage process is advocated Stage 1: A Regional-level Assessment - High-level risk assessment of the vulnerability of the region s land and infrastructure to climate change impacts Stage 2: Local-scale Prioritisation - For the most significant CC effects, detailed risk mapping of the most vulnerable land and infrastructure Stage 3: Location-specific Solutions - For priority areas and impacts; the selection of the most appropriate adaptive solutions that meet local needs and constraints 6

7 A Staged Approach RiskScape, heuristics & expert opinion Stage 1: Identify Priority Effects and Areas Climate and physical modelling at a regional level. Mapping of categorised zones of risk based on hazard-risk to focus on areas of high vulnerability Pick-list of adaptive strategies Value and cost functions across 4 well-beings Stage 2: Priority Area Risk Mapping Detailed mapping of high risk areas, taking account of land-use, infrastructure & property importance classifications. MCA screening of adaptive strategies. Stage 3: Adaptation Optioneering Identification of preference amongst Strategic & regional planning Regional & district planning, works improvements needs Adaptive maintenance, renewals & capital works program to improve climate change resilience 7

8 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping RiskScape Vulnerability Assessment Priority CC Effects Audit of Plans Identification of Priorities & Needs Possible Solutions? Matrix Plan Options Selection Consideration of alternatives Stage 3A: Options Screening Technical Studies Data Statutes & Legislation Community Views Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Yes Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation Rapid CBE Standard CBA 8

9 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping RiskScape Vulnerability Assessment Technical Studies Matrix Data Statutes & Legislation Priority CC Effects Community Views Audit of Plans Plan Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision 1.6: Matrix Identification of Priorities & Needs Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Possible Solutions? A for capturing information on the vulnerability of assets and infrastructure to climate change effects. Consideratio n of alternatives These vulnerabilities are rated in order to gain an understanding of Yes priorities for attention. Many or conflicting requirements? No Sylvia Allan will be presenting 1.6 in Session 6. Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 9

10 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping RiskScape Vulnerability Assessment Priority CC Effects Audit of Plans Identification of Priorities & Needs Possible Solutions? Technical Studies Matrix Data Plan 1.5: Policy & Plan Assess Audit & Yes Twostage short-list MCA Community Views Top- Down Decision Preferred solutions Options Selection Consideratio n of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? A for carrying out a health check audit of the adequacy of No planning and policy provisions against climate change effects. The object of the tool is to identify possible areas of improvement Sylvia Allan will be presenting 1.5 in Session 6. Statutes & Legislation Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 10

11 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map 4.6: Top-down Stage 2: Decision Priority Area Mapping Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects A framework for assessing proposals in terms of the statutory and Priority Audit of Identification Possible policy Vulnerability requirements. CC It identifies the various of Priorities inquiries or Solutions evaluations Assessment Effects Plans & Needs? that need to be made by the decision-makers as the proposal proceeds towards the ultimate decision. Matrix Technical Studies Data Community Views Plan Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Sylvia Allan will be presenting 4.6 in Session 6. Statutes & Legislation Yes Consideratio n of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation RiskScape Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 11

12 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping RiskScape Vulnerability Assessment Priority CC Effects Audit of Plans Identification of Priorities & Needs Possible Solutions? Matrix RiskScape Data is used to predict the Technical Studies Plan 3.2: RiskScape An integrated risk evaluation system covering a range of natural hazards. quantified levels Community of hazard and risk on a Views spatial basis. Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Ryan Paulik will be presenting 3.2 in Session 7. Statutes & Legislation Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Yes Consideratio n of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 12

13 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Vulnerability Assessment Matrix Technical Studies 4.2: Options Screening Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Priority CC Effects A for short-listing risk reduction based on simple contextual information. The intention being that the short-listed measures are then assessed in more detail using other s. Data Community Nick Keenan will Views be presenting 4.2 in Session 9. Statutes & Legislation Audit of Plans Plan Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping Identification of Priorities & Needs Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Yes Possible Solutions? Consideration of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation RiskScape Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 13

14 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Matrix Technical Studies Data Statutes & Legislation Community Views Plan Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping 4.5: Staged MCA Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Yes Consideratio n of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation RiskScape Priority Audit of Identification Possible Vulnerability A stage application CC of the Multi-criteria Assessment of Priorities process, Solutions each Assessment Effects Plans & Needs? stage focusing the assessment detail on areas then locations of interest and finally on adaptation of interest. Steve Oldfield will be presenting 4.5 in Session 8. Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 14

15 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping 4.3: Rapid Cost Benefit evaluation RiskScape A Priority Vulnerability tool for weighing the benefits Audit of versus Identification the costs for different Possible CC of Priorities Solutions Assessment using Effects readily available Plans models and & Needs broad costs? augmented by subjective judgment and a treatment of uncertainty. Matrix Technical Studies Data Community Views Plan Steve Oldfield will be presenting 4.3 in Session 10. Statutes & Legislation Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Yes Consideratio n of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 15

16 box Decision Framework Basic Process Map Stage 1: Identify Priority Climate Effects Stage 2: Priority Area Mapping 4.4: BCA Applied at Property Level RiskScape A Priority Vulnerability demonstration of the standard Audit of BCA methodology Identification to Possible assess the CC of Priorities Solutions Assessment benefits versus Effects costs in future Plans proofing properties & Needs against? climate change impacts Matrix Technical Studies Data Community Views Plan Ian Page will be presenting 4.4 in Session 11. Statutes & Legislation Twostage MCA Top- Down Decision Assess & short-list Preferred solutions Options Selection Yes Consideratio n of alternatives Many or conflicting requirements? No Weigh up costs & Benefits Stage 3B: Options Evaluation Stage 3A: Options Screening Rapid CBE Standard CBA 16

17 More Information Content 1.1: Explains why there is a focus on urban environments 1.2: Introduction to IPCC and guidance on CC for NZ 1.3: Introduction to general risk assessment methods relevant to CC adaptation 1.4: Overview of key statutory instruments that apply in a planning context 1.5: Describes a for auditing Plans for CC provisions 1.6: Describes a method for prioritising needs for action on CC issues 1.7: Sources of information and a glossary of terms 17

18 Questions and Discussion The box is located at: http//: 18