Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning Part 3: Unified Baseline Value Focused Metrics Model

Transcription

1 Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning Part 3: Unified Baseline Value Focused Metrics Model Dr. Daniel T. Maxwell Professor David Davis Knowledge and Decision Science (KaDSci) Scientific Authority: Lynne Genik DRDC Centre forsecurity Science The scientific or technical validity of this Contract Report is entirely the responsibility of the Contractor and the contents do not necessarily have the approval or endorsement of Defence R&D Canada. Defence R&D Canada Centre for Security Science Contractor Report DRDC CSS CR November 2013

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3 Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning Part 3: Unified Baseline Value Focused Metrics Model Dr. Daniel T. Maxwell Professor David Davis Knowledge and Decision Science (KaDSci) Scientific Authority: Lynne Genik DRDC Centre forsecurity Science The scientific or technical validity of this Contract Report is entirely the responsibility of the Contractor and the contents do not necessarily have the approval or endorsement of Defence R&D Canada. Defence R&D Canada Centre for Security Science Contractor Report DRDC CSS CR November 2013

4 Principal Author Original signed by Daniel T. Maxwell, Ph.D. Contractor, KaDSci, LLC Approved by Original signed by Lynne Genik, MSc Scientist, Decision Support Section, DRDC CSS Approved for release by Original signed byandrew Vallerand Dr. Andrew Vallerand A/Chair DRP Defence R&D Canada Centre for Security Science (CSS) Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of National Defence, 2013 Sa Majesté la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale, 2013

5 Abstract.. This report is part three of a four part series describing how a decision analytic modeling approach called Value Focused Metrics (VFM) was applied to emergency preparedness planning processes in two cities on Vancouver Island using four scenarios. This volume describes how the research team used the subject matter expert input from across four sample scenarios to develop a single Unified model that could potentially serve as a baseline model for emergency preparedness planning and assessment. The research team s analysis confirmed that there is significant commonality across scenarios, especially as it relates to objectives. The common objectives were used as input in the development of a proof of concept Value Focused Metrics model that demonstrates it is possible to construct a baseline model. These finding reinforce the belief that a Value Focused Metrics approach to supporting emergency preparedness planning and assessment is technically feasible and potentially could advance the state of the art in this domain. Résumé... Le présent rapport est le troisième volet d une série de quatre décrivant comment une approche de modélisation analytique décisionnelle intitulée «mesures axées sur les valeurs» (MAV) a été appliquée aux processus de planification de la préparation en cas d urgence dans deux villes, situées sur l île de Vancouver, à l aide de quatre scénarios. Ce document présente la façon dont l équipe de recherche a tiré profit des commentaires des experts en la matière dans (EM) concernant l ensemble des quatre scénarios dans le but d élaborer un seul modèle unifié pouvant servir de référence pour la planification et l évaluation de la préparation en cas d urgence. L analyse de l équipe a permis de confirmer que les scénarios présentent des caractéristiques communes importantes, plus particulièrement lorsqu il est question d objectifs. Les motifs généraux ont servi de données dans le cadre de l élaboration d un modèle de MAV pour la validation de principe indiquant qu il est possible de créer un modèle de référence. Ces résultats renforcent la croyance qu une approche de MAV à l appui de la planification et de l évaluation de la préparation en cas d urgence est possible sur le plan technique et pourrait faire progresser la technologie dans le domaine. DRDC CSS CR i

6 Executive Summary Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning: Part 3 : Unified Baseline Value Focused Metrics Model, David F. Davis; Daniel T. Maxwell,DRDC Centre for Security Science DRDC CSS CR , November 2013 Introduction or background: This report is part three of a four part report exploring the feasibility and desirability of applying a decision analytic modeling technique called Value Focused Metrics in the support of emergency preparedness planning. The first two parts of the effort focused on the development of VFM models that represented the objectives and tasks subject matter experts identified for each of four scenarios. This stage of the research consisted of an effort by the research team that explored the possibility of developing a baseline, or Unified VFM model that was scenario independent, at least to the limit of the data that was collected from the subject matter experts during the first two phases of the project. Results: The research team identified significant commonality in the set of objectives across scenarios for both fundamental and means objectives. This commonality was used to successfully construct a unified model that could serve as a baseline for planning and assessment of emergency preparedness at the local level. The team also found some commonality in tasks, but the bigger research finding is that most tasks very much tend to be scenario specific. While there is a small set of tasks that are applicable across all scenarios, the individual scenarios have unique characteristics that call for different actions on the part of emergency preparedness professionals. Significance: These findings reinforce the research team s belief that Value Focused Modeling techniques have potential for supporting emergency preparedness planning and assessment. This is likely especially true when refining the objectives that are most relevant under different scenarios. While many tasks appear to be scenario specific, there is a small set common tasks that apply to all scenarios. These tasks, even if their contribution to improved performance is indirect and on the margin in individual scenarios (e.g., Provide ICS Training), are significant because they contribute to any contingency communities may face. Future plans: In the next phase of the project the research team intends to review the results produced by the individual models from both a technical and subject matter expert perspective. Additionally, we expect to make recommendations for future research as it relates to the idea of use of common models as a foundation for planning and assessment activities at various levels of government. ii DRDC CSS CR

7 Sommaire... Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning: Part 3 : Unified Baseline Value Focused Metrics Model David F. Davis; Daniel T. Maxwell,RDDC Centre des sciences pour la sécurité DRDC CSS CR , Novembre 2013 Introduction ou contexte : Le présent rapport est le troisième volet d une série de quatre examinant la possibilité et le bien-fondé d une technique de modélisation analytique décisionnelle intitulée «mesures axées sur les valeurs» (MAV) à l appui de la planification de la préparation en cas d urgence. Les deux premiers volets des travaux portaient sur le développement de modèles de MAV représentant les objectifs et les tâches identifiées par les experts en la matière (EM) pour chaque scénario. Au cours de cette étape du processus de recherche, l équipe a exploré la possibilité de créer un seul modèle de référence ou de VFM unifié ne dépendant pas d un scénario, au moins jusqu à la limite des données recueillies par les EM durant les deux premières phases du projet. Résultats : L équipe de recherche a décelé des caractéristiques communes importantes en ce qui a trait aux objectifs fondamentaux de l ensemble des scénarios. Les motifs généraux ont permis la création d un modèle unifié pouvant servir de référence pour la planification et l évaluation de la préparation en cas d urgence au niveau local. L équipe a également découvert certaines similitudes concernant les tâches, mais le résultat de recherche le plus important est que la plupart des tâches semblent grandement être liées à un scénario en particulier. Alors qu un petit groupe de tâches s applique à l ensemble des scénarios, chacun de ces derniers présente des caractéristiques propres qui nécessitent diverses mesures de la part de professionnels des préparatifs d urgence. Importance : Ces résultats renforcent la croyance qu une approche de MAV pouvant appuyer la planification et de l évaluation de la préparation en cas d urgence est possible sur le plan technique et pourrait faire progresser la technologie dans le domaine. Cela est probablement vrai lorsque les objectifs les plus pertinents au regard de différents scénarios sont précisés. De nombreuses tâches semblent propres à des scénarios, mais quelques-unes qui sont communes s appliquent à tous les scénarios. Même si leur soutien à l amélioration du rendement est indirect et en marge dans les scénarios individuels (p. ex., formation sur le SCI), ces tâches sont importantes puisqu elles contribuent aux urgences auxquelles les communautés peuvent faire face. Futurs plans : Dans le cadre de la prochaine phase du projet, l équipe de recherche prévoit examiner les résultats des modèles individuels sur le plan technique et du point de vue d EM. En outre, des recommandations devraient être formulées pour les prochains travaux de recherche en ce qui a trait au concept d utilisation de modèles communs à titre de référence pour les activités de planification et d évaluation à divers paliers de gouvernement. DRDC CSS CR iii

8 Table of Contents Abstract..... i Résumé i Executive Summary... ii Sommaire... iii Table of Contents... iv List of Figures... v List of Tables... vi Acknowledgements... vii 1 Introduction Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy Means Ends Objectives Network Common Tasks Findings Conclusions and Recommendations References iv DRDC CSS CR

9 List of Figures Figure 1. Initial Common MEON DRDC CSS CR v

10 List of Tables Table 1: Fundamental Objectives Hierarchies... 9 Table 2: Common Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy Table 3: Common Model Objectives Table 4: Common Objectives by Scenario Table 5: Top Consensus Objectives Table 6: Sub-Pillar Objectives Comparisons vi DRDC CSS CR

11 Acknowledgements The research team gratefully acknowledges the invaluable support of the emergency management professionals and volunteers in Parksville and British Columbia. Without their active participation, none of this research would have been possible. We especially want to acknowledge the efforts of Aaron Dawson, in Parksville and Karen Lindsay, in. Additionally, the active support provided by Clare Fletcher, Shannon Krilow, and Heather Lyle of Emergency Management British Columbia (EMBC) was invaluable and is greatly appreciated. DRDC CSS CR vii

12 1 Introduction A joint DRDC contractor research team used a decision analysis based modeling technique called Value Focused Metrics modeling to develop four models, one for each Disaster Response scenario inside the scope of the research effort. The scenarios were: 1. Parksville Interface Fire (PIF) 2. Parksville (PEQ) 3. Propane Spill (NPS) 4. (NEQ) Each model was composed fairly independently using subject matter expert input, although the earthquake models were influenced by the experience community Subject Matter Experts gained developing the initial models. The specific descriptions of each model and the process the research team used to generate the models can be found in Parts 1 and 2 of this project report, and in the set of detailed models descriptions that were generated for use by the communities [1 6]. This report describes what was found when the research team compared and contrasted the contents of all four models and how the individual models were synthesized into a common (unified) model that could be used as a general case template (or baseline) in support of emergency preparedness planning and assessment activities. The report first looks at the fundamental objectives hierarchy, followed by the means ends objectives network, and then discusses what was learned about the possibility of common tasks. The report concludes with some discussion and recommendations about the potential for, and limitations of, synthesized multi-scenario models to support planning and assessment. 8 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

13 2 Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy Each scenario specific model contains a Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy (FOH) identifying a strategic objective that is supported by a set of fundamental objectives. Many of these objectives are taken directly from the British Columbia Emergency Response Management System (BCERMs) goal set published by the Provincial government [7]. Because the Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy for each of the scenarios was largely derived from the BCERMs, a great degree of commonality exists across scenarios. Table 1 contains the Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy for each scenario. It is clear via a quick visual inspection that there is significant commonality across the scenarios. Table 1: Fundamental Objectives Hierarchies PIF PEQ S Reduce Loss to Community S Reduce Loss to Community F1 Save Lives F1 Save Lives F2 Reduce Suffering F2 Reduce Suffering F3 Reduce Economic Loss F3 Reduce Economic Loss F4 Reduce Social Loss F4 Reduce Social Loss F5 Protect Environment NPS NEQ S Minimize Risk S Reduce Loss to Community F1 Save Lives F1 Save Lives F2 Reduce Suffering F2 Reduce Suffering F4 Protect Environment F3 Reduce Economic Loss F3 Reduce Economic and Social F4 Reduce Social Loss Losses F5 Protect Environment At the strategic objective level, three of the four scenarios identified Reduce Loss to Community as the overall strategic objective, with the exception being the Propane Spill scenario. For Propane Spill, there was a great deal of discussion among the SMEs during the workshops. It resulted in that strategic objective being labeled Minimize Risk. The logic was that the Propane Spill scenario was the simplest of all four scenarios in that it was a single hazard in a localized area not expected to put the broader community at risk. The other three scenarios were more complex and were seen as having a higher level of impact and, consequently, risk to the communities. DRDC CSS CR

14 The supporting fundamental objectives across scenarios, taken largely from BCERMs, were very similar, including save lives, reduce suffering, and reduce economic loss. Reduce social loss was present in three of the four scenarios. The SMEs consolidated social loss with economic loss as a supporting fundamental objective in Propane Spill for essentially the same reasons that the Propane Spill strategic objective was different. Of interest was that the protection of the environment was also represented explicitly in three of the four scenarios, but this time absent in the Parksville Interface Fire scenario. Protection of the environment was discussed during the Parksville Interface Fire workshops and exercises, but the attendees did not see it rising to the same level of importance as they later did for the Parksville, or as the attendees did for both Propane Spill and. Given the more inclusive nature of the Fundamental Objectives Hierarchies for Parksville and, it serves as the common Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy and consequently could be considered a baseline for all planning efforts (see Table 2). This baseline can be modified as part of the elicitation process for specific models, either for specific scenarios or for general planning support in a community. For example, if it is determined in discussion, as in the example above focusing on the interface fire scenario, that a proposed fundamental objective does not rise to that level of significance, it can either be recast as a means objective or given no weight, effectively removing it from the model. Either of these minor adjustments to the common model could make the Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy equivalent to the model used in the individually elicited scenario models. Table 2: Common Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 S Common FOH Save Lives Reduce Suffering Reduce Economic Loss Reduce Social Loss Protect Environment Reduce Loss to Community 10 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

15 3 Means Ends Objectives Network A Means Ends Objectives Network, or MEON, is a linked set of objectives that serve as intermediate objectives connecting the fundamental objectives to the tasks in the model. These objectives represent the chain of influence, or theory of change, in a system. As pointed out in previous reports, the development of the scenario specific models was accomplished by first eliciting the Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy, then the MEON. As with all model building, the composition of these models was a discovery process. Essentially, the research team learned and recorded the content and structure of the MEON using the contents of the scenario specific models. By content we mean the list of objectives and their definitions, and by structure we mean the relationships identified as existing among the objectives (represented as arcs in the network model). The model elicitation and structuring process was, at least partially, guided using the four pillars of the Emergency Preparedness planning cycle: Prevention and Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, and Recovery. During the development and analysis of the models, several clusters of related objectives emerged for the Preparedness and Response pillars which the research team organized into sub-pillars based on their interpretation of the interaction with the SMEs from the communities. The contents of the sub-pillars should not be viewed as authoritative. Rather, it should be taken as demonstrative of an approach to implementing VFM models that could make the models both easier to describe and more facile for conducting analyses. Similar to the four individual scenarios, the common model the research team derived is captured using GeNIe decision influence diagram software. 1 The resulting objectives model used most of the objectives from the scenarios. It accounted for all Prevention and Mitigation objectives, all but 12 Preparedness objectives, all but 16 Response objectives, and all but 2 Recovery objectives. Several conceptual duplicates were removed and the resultant Unified model, as shown in Figure 3-1, emerged. The total number of objectives, including fundamental objectives, and means objectives organized by pillar, is shown in Table DRDC CSS CR

16 12 Figure 1. Initial Common MEON DRDC CSS CR

17 Table 3: Common Model Objectives Pillar Number of Objectives FOH 6 Prevent/Mitigate 2 Preparedness 28 Response 40 Recovery 9 Total 85 Table 4 contains a count of the means objectives by the scenario that was used as the source of key information for the objective. Because there were many similar and duplicate objectives across scenarios, the research team selected the objective from one scenario and used the definition for that objective, as well as the states and initial tasks set, as the input for the common model. The one new objective was labeled Identify Risks. It is an amalgamation of risk variables across all four scenarios. Table 4: Common Objectives by Scenario Scenario Count of Objectives PIF 23 PEQ 22 NPS 8 NEQ 25 New 1 79 Finally, a review of the objectives in the MEON against the top objectives in swing analyses was conducted. Table 5 shows the top five consensus objectives from the four scenarios. This analysis was conducted by taking an average of the swing values for the each objective across all scenarios. DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 13

18 Table 5: Top Consensus Objectives Common Objectives Source Average Swing Provide for Public Health and Safety All Provide for Responder Health and Safety PIF/NPS Return Evacuees PIF/NPS Shelter and Humanitarian assistance for affected population is available s Critical Infrastructure restored s Similar to the models of individual scenarios, the Common Model MEON is difficult to read and digest on a single page. The GeNIe.xdsl file that accompanies this research report (Common Model MEON 26 Sept 13.xdsl) contains all of the MEON data and can be manipulated using the GeNIe software. Additionally, Table 6 contains a listing of the objectives organized by pillar and sub-pillar. 14 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

19 Table 6: Sub-Pillar Objectives Comparisons Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire PreventMitigate Provide Public Education on Fire Prevention PreventMitigate Reduce Fire Transfer Potential PreventMitigate Reduce Vulnerability Preparedness_Critical_ Infrastructure of Buildings Create CI Inventory and Stakeholder List Parksville Public is educated on Disaster Planning Propane Spill Minimize Populated Areas at Risk Critical Infrastructure redundancy is developed CSA and Engineering Standards for Mitigation are met Public is educated on Disaster Planning CSA and Engineering Standards for Mitigation are met Common Objective Public is educated on Disaster Planning Critical Infrastructure redundancy is developed Mine vulnerability and consequences minimized Critical Infrastructure Inventory exists Critical Infrastructure Inventory exists Critical Infrastructure Inventory exists Preparedness_Critical_Infrastructure Critical Infrastructure redundancy is Preparedness_Logistics Ensure Availability of Safe Water Preparedness_Logistics Provide Adequate Capability Standards and Inventories Standards and Inventories Stockpile of critical parts and materials exists Stockpile of critical parts and materials exists developed Standards and Inventories Stockpile of critical parts and materials exists DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 15

20 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Propane Spill Common Objective Preparedness_Logistics Provide Adequate Equipment Ensure Availability of Safe Water Preparedness_Logistics Provide Adequate Capability Preparedness_Logistics Provide Adequate Preparedness_Planning Create Business and Community Continuity Plans Preparedness_Planning Create Validated Plans Preparedness_Planning Establish Effective Communication Preparedness_Planning Maximize Response Effectiveness Debris removal is planned Emergency Transportation and Road Plan Created Develop Validated Response Plans Establish Effective Communications Communications Plan Created Debris removal is planned Health Care Plans are created Emergency Transportation and Road Plan Created Recovery Plans are Created Health Care Plans are created Equipment Debris removal is planned Water Management Plan Communications Plan Created Emergency Transportation and Road Plan Created Preparedness_Planning Response plans exist Recovery Plans are Recovery Plans Created are Created Preparedness_Planning Subordinate Plans Response plans exist Develop Validated Response Plans 16 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

21 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Preparedness_Planning Victim recovery planning is accomplished Propane Spill Preparedness_Planning Water Management Plan Victim recovery planning is accomplished Preparedness_Planning Preparedness_Support Coordinate Provincial Support Preparedness_Support Coordinate Regional Support Preparedness_Support Coordinate with Stakeholders Preparedness_Support Create Mutual Aid Agreements Community is prepared for reception of other Establish Stakeholder Collaboration Common Objective Subordinate Plans Victim recovery planning is Community is prepared for reception of other populations populations Coordinate Provincial Support Coordinate Provincial Support Coordinate Regional Support Coordinate Regional Support Private sector is engaged and involved in preparation Private sector is engaged and involved in preparation Preparedness_Support Robust mutual aid agreements exist Robust mutual aid agreements exist accomplished Health Care Plans are created Coordinate Provincial Support Coordinate Regional Support Coordinate with Stakeholders Create Mutual Aid Agreements Community is prepared for reception of other populations Preparedness_Support Private sector is engaged and involved in preparation DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 17

22 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Preparedness_Training Conduct Adequate Training Preparedness_Training Conduct Exercises & Training Preparedness_Training Provide Public Education on Response Parksville Exercises and Training are conducted Exercises and Training are conducted Propane Spill Conduct Collective Training Exercise Unified Command and Control Exercises and Training are conducted Common Objective Conduct Exercises & Training Staffs are prepared Provide Public Education on Response Staffs are prepared Staffs are prepared Preparedness_Understanding Ensure Forest Fire Preparedness Complete After Action Review for Incidents Preparedness_Understanding Identify Forest Fire Risk Create Central Hazmat Capability Inventory Exercise Unified Command and Control Identify risks Complete After Action Review for Incidents Preparedness_Understanding Understand Capacities Understand Capacities Preparedness_Understanding Educate Public on Hazards / Routes / Educate Public Procedures on Hazards / Routes / Procedures 18 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

23 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Propane Spill Preparedness_Understanding Establish Effective Information Sharing Processes and Procedures Response_Access Emergency Transportation and Road situation assessed for responder access Response_Access Transportation and road clearance for responder and logistics movement Emergency Transportation and Road situation assessed for responder access Transportation and road clearance for responder and logistics movement Response_Access Transportation and Road situation assessed for community movement Response_Care Evacuate Those at Risk Emergency Social Services are established Provide for Public Health and Safety Immediate evacuation of people at risk is accomplished Common Objective Establish Effective Information Sharing Processes and Procedures Emergency Transportation and Road situation assessed for responder access Transportation and road clearance for responder and logistics movement Transportation and Road situation assessed for community movement Immediate evacuation of people at risk is accomplished DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 19

24 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Response_Care Inform Public on Current Response Requirements Response_Care Provide Food and Shelter for Displaced People Response_Care Return Evacuees Response_Care Establish Emergency Social Services Response_Care Ensure Responder Family Safety and Security Response_Care Provide for Public Health and Safety Parksville Offset Emergency Social Services are established Provide for Public Health and Safety Provide for Responder Health and Safety Propane Spill Provide for Responder Health and Safety Support Evacuees Return Evacuees Offset Provide for Responder Health and Safety Provide for Public Health and Safety Provide for Responder Health and Safety Responder families are safe and secure Shelter in place in encouraged and supported Public Health Infrastructure Shelter and Humanitarian assistance for displaced population is available Responder families are safe and secure Emergency Social Services are activated Common Objective Provide for Public Health and Safety Provide for Responder Health and Safety Responder families are safe and secure Shelter in place in encouraged and supported Emergency Social Services are established Inform Public on Current Response Requirements Response_Care Provide for Shelter and Humanitarian assistance for affected population is Provide Food Responder available and Shelter for Health and Displaced Safety People Response_Care Shelter in place for low risk population Return Evacuees 20 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

25 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Propane Spill Common Objective Response_Care Shelter and Humanitarian assistance for displaced population is available Response_Command Activate Emergency Operations Center Response_Command Customize Evacuation Plans Response_Command Customize Health Action Plans Emergency Communications Established Activate Emergency Coordination Center Emergency Customize Communications Evacuation Established Plan EOC is Activated Establish Unified Command and Control ECC is Activated Activate Emergency Communications Established Onsite Command(s) Created Emergency Operations Center Customize Evacuation Plans Customize Health Action Plans Response_Command Establish Unified Command Inform Public Establish Unified Command Response_Command Recognize Major Incident Response_Command Request Wildfire Management Branch Support Emergency Communications Established Response_Command Inform Public Response_Critical_ Infrastructure Customize Critical Infrastructure Action Plans Critical Infrastructure inspections are conducted Protect Critical Infrastructure Critical Infrastructure inspections are conducted Critical Infrastructure inspections are conducted DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 21

26 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Response_Critical_ Infrastructure Response_Critical_ Infrastructure Response_Critical_ Infrastructure Protect Critical Infrastructure Provide Transportation Management Parksville Critical infrastructure/essential services to sustain life Propane Spill Protect Property Critical infrastructure/essential services to sustain life assessed assessed Specialized personnel are available for critical infrastructure assessments Common Objective Protect Critical Infrastructure Protect Property Specialized personnel are available for critical infrastructure assessments Response_Critical_Infrastructure Provide Transportation Management Response_Logistics Conduct General logistical support is provided Conduct Resource Conduct Resource Inventory Resource Inventory Inventory Response_Logistics Manage Provide Human Resource Management Ensure Resource Ensure Resource Response Availability Availability Resources Response_Logistics Provide Human Resource Management Resources Prioritized General logistical support is provided Response_Logistics Conduct Resource Inventory Provide Human Resource Management General logistical support is provided Provide Human Resource Management 22 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

27 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Response_Respond Conduct Casualty and Health Operations Response_Respond Establish Emergency Health Services Response_Respond Extinguish Fires Response_Respond Minimize Urban Fire Reentry Response_Respond Provide Alternate Health Care for At Risk Citizens Parksville Conduct Casualty Operations First Responders are activated Immediate evacuation of people at risk is accomplished Onsite emergency medical available Search and Rescue Operations are conducted Propane Spill Conduct Casualty Operations Conduct Evacuations Minimize Risk of Explosion Conduct Casualty Operations First Responders deployed Onsite emergency medical available Common Objective Conduct Casualty and Health Operations Establish Emergency Health Services Provide Alternate Health Care for At Risk Citizens Mitigate Search and Rescue Provide Health Dispersion Operations are Care for Risk conducted Displaced People Mitigate Remaining Threat First Responders are activated Response_Respond Provide Health Care for Displaced People Perform Immediate Rescues Immediate evacuation of people at risk is Response_Respond Secure Hot Zone accomplished Search and Rescue Operations are conducted DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 23

28 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Propane Spill Common Objective Response_Respond Conduct Evacuations Response_Respond Mitigate Remaining Response_Support PREOC AND PECC Activated Response_Support Ensure Resource Availability PREOC AND PECC Activated Threat PREOC AND PECC Activated Response_Understanding Identify and Map Critical Sites At risk people are identified Response_Understanding General situational awareness is maintained Response_Understanding Immediate Damage Assessment conducted Identify Hot Zone Monitor Situation Understand Situational Risk At risk people are identified Crowd Source Information is Available Ensure Federal Marine information received Response_Understanding Public Information is available General situational awareness is maintained Response_Understanding Rapid identification of public health risks has been done Offset General situational awareness is maintained Identify and Map Critical Sites At risk people are identified General situational awareness is maintained Immediate Damage Assessment conducted Public Information is available 24 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

29 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Propane Spill Response_Understanding Public Information is available Response_Understanding Rapid Damage Assessment Response_Understanding Rapid identification of public health risks has been done Common Objective Rapid identification of public health risks has been done Crowd Source Information is Available Rapid Damage Assessment Recovery Effective and Early Community Critical Infrastructure Recovery Recovery Ensure Effective and Early Community Social Recovery Recovery Ensure Removal of Hazards Community made safe from physical risks of damage Coordinate Recovery Support Community made safer from physical risks of damage Critical Infrastructure restored Critical Infrastructure rehabilitated or replaced Debris and hazardous material have been removed Debris and hazardous material have been removed Debris and hazardous material have been removed Critical Infrastructure restored Community made safe from physical risks of damage DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 25

30 Sub Model Parksville Interface Fire Parksville Propane Spill Recovery Evacuees are returned or resettled Ensure critical infrastructure availability Recovery Long term public assistance is available Evacuees are returned or resettled Recovery Long term resources are available Long term public assistance is available Recovery Public Information campaign is continued Recovery Transportation and Roads are rehabilitated Public Information campaign is continued Transportation and Roads are rehabilitated Common Objective Evacuees are returned or resettled Long term public assistance is available Long term resources are available Public Information campaign is continued Transportation and Roads are rehabilitated Recovery Ensure Effective and Early Community Social Recovery 26 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

31 4 Common Tasks Once the MEON had been constructed and reviewed, then each of the common objectives was reviewed against the other objectives within its sub-pillar across the four original scenarios. A representative set of tasks was developed based on the research team s knowledge of the scenarios. As previously indicated, the source scenario model objective was used as the initial set of tasks for each means objective. Then the tasks were reviewed against the same or similar objectives in the other models and tasks were added, slightly modified, or removed based on apparent duplication, or over specificity to an individual scenario. The tasks were then reviewed one more time to ensure that any scenario specific language was removed. This resulted in 261 distinct tasks being identified. The accompanying Microsoft Excel file contains these tasks by objective, and they are also included in the sub-pillar.xdsl file (Common Model - Sub Pillars 26 Sept 13.xdsl). There are two critical caveats that should be reported with the common model. First, the research team did not attempt to assess task impact for the common scenario. Second, this model should be interpreted as demonstrative of a concept, not valid for planning without further input from emergency planning SMEs. DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 27

32 5 Findings While the research team did not conduct any independent or supplemental impact analysis of tasks for the common model, some task impacts inside and across the scenario specific models was completed and is reported below. Some key observations, organized by pillar are: Prevention There were 24 tasks ranked high in impact for the four scenarios. There were no direct duplicate tasks across the four scenarios. The four tasks that were brought forward to the common model were included in the top ranked tasks from an impact perspective. However, the tasks on working with local authorities for legislative action were not included, nor were the objectives that might be impacted by these tasks. In both cases, the missing objective was in the area of standards for construction and assessment. This objective and tasks may need to be considered for a future common model. Preparedness All SME identified high impact tasks from the four scenarios were included in the common model. Note that there is little consensus as to what these priority tasks are between scenarios. Only EOC Liaison officer to work with EMBC for spending support and equipment and staff support when local resources are exhausted is mentioned twice. All other tasks are unique to their scenario at the impact ranking level. Response Several of the high impact tasks were not included in the common model. These were mostly Propane Spill specific tasks dealing with plume analysis and propane gas. This raises the issue of how to deal with the specific technological responses to some scenarios that may not fit in a common model. Other than that, one task Identify landing zones for helicopters and sea vessels was not included in the model and may need to be added later. Two tasks: Notify public of end of hazard, and Obtain Evacuation Order Rescind were included in the common model, but under the Recovery pillar, whereas they were included in the Response pillar for the Propane Spill scenario where they were identified as high impact. Again, similar to Preparedness, there were no duplicate high priority tasks across the four scenarios. Recovery Unlike the task in the Preparedness and Response pillars, Recovery tasks seem to have a consensus across the scenarios. Often the tasks are described using different vocabulary, but essentially they are the same tasks concerning debris removal and management, finances, and authorities (community governance). All but two tasks in the 28 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

33 priority lists were included in the common model. These were Assess needs for Critical Incident Stress Management (CISM) for responders and Reduce red tape during recovery process streamline processes. Including CISM in the common model should be considered. Note that the task Designate Recovery Sites was in the Recovery pillar for the Propane Spill scenario, but is included in the Response pillar for the common model. DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 29

34 6 Conclusions and Recommendations This stage of the research demonstrated the technical feasibility of composing a unified Value Focused Metrics model that can serve as a baseline for detailed planning and analysis. While we believe that the result of this stage of the effort is a technical success, the contents of the model should not be taken as authoritative from a substantive perspective. The four scenarios selected by the communities for the research represent only a subset of potential disaster risks that communities face. This bias in the content is exacerbated by the biases that were introduced in model contents because not all stakeholders in emergency preparedness planning process participated in the model elicitation sessions. Moreover, the results were not subject to peer review by emergency preparedness SMEs. Additionally, the commonalities that were identified in the Fundamental Objectives Hierarchy and the Means Ends Objective Network suggest that a baseline model or set of models could be developed to support emergency preparedness planning. Given that we found in earlier stages of the research that the hardest part of the model development process was the initial elicitation and feedback from participants, communication amongst the stakeholders became the most valuable part of the process for developing planning and assessment support tools. Stakeholder communication should be identified as a high priority goal. It is entirely plausible that the use of a baseline model could ease the elicitation burden as well as stimulate the discussion among stakeholders. This capability has the potential to increase both the efficiency and effectiveness of the emergency preparedness planning process. Future research efforts that build on what was learned as a result of this work should attempt to synthesize a model from across a broader range of scenarios. Moreover, if the goal of the additional effort is to develop validated models that can be operationally deployed, some mechanism obtaining more robust involvement of emergency preparedness SMEs should be developed as an integral part of the research plan. Finally, these findings provide some indication that there is the potential to simultaneously achieve improved planning and assessment effectiveness at a reduced cost when compared to model and plan development from scratch. This should be explored via a cost benefit analysis. 30 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

35 References... [1] Maxwell, Daniel and David Davis (2013), Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning: Part 1: Objectives Measurement Framework, Contract Report DRDC CSS 2013-XXX, September 2013 [2] Maxwell, Daniel and David Davis (2013), Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning: Part 2: Identification and Assessment of Mission Tasks, Contract Report DRDC CSS 2013-XXX, October 2013 [3] Maxwell, Daniel and David Davis (2013), Propane Spill Scenario Detailed Model Description, September 2013 [4] Maxwell, Daniel and David Davis (2013), Parksville Interface Fire Scenario Detailed Model Description, September 2013 [5] Maxwell, Daniel and David Davis (2013), Scenario Detailed Model Description, September 2013 [6] Maxwell, Daniel and David Davis (2013), Parksville Scenario Detailed Model Description, September 2013 [7] Standards for BCERMS Training Providers and BCERMS Training Materials, British Columbia Emergency Response Management System, Provincial Emergency Program, Ministry of Public Safety and Solicitor General, November 2011, available from: DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 31

36 DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA (Security classification of title, body of abstract and indexing annotation must be entered when the overall document is classified) 1. ORIGINATOR ( 2. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION KaDSci LLC 7225 Whtison Dr Springfield, VA UNCLASSIFIED (NON-CONTROLLED GOODS) DMC-A REVIEW: GCEC APRIL TITLE Value Focused Metrics for Improved Emergency Preparedness Planning Part 3: Unified Baseline Value Focused Metrics Model 4. AUTHORS (last name, followed by initials ranks, titles, etc. not to be used) Maxwell, D.; Davis D. 5. DATE OF PUBLICATION (Month and year of publication of document.) November a. NO. OF PAGES 37 6b. NO. OF REFS 7 7. DESCRIPTIVE NOTES Contractor Report 8. SPONSORING ACTIVITY (The name of the department project office or laboratory sponsoring the research and development include address.) Defence R&D Canada CSS 222 Nepean St Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K2 9a. PROJECT OR GRANT NO. (If appropriate, the applicable research and development project or grant number under which the document was written. Please specify whether project or grant.) CSSP-2013-TI b. CONTRACT NO. (If appropriate, the applicable number under which the document was written.) W a. ORIGINATOR'S DOCUMENT NUMBER ( 10b. OTHER DOCUMENT NO(s). 32 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]

37 DRDC CSS CR DOCUMENT AVAILABILITY Unlimited 12. DOCUMENT ANNOUNCEMENT Unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (A brief and factual summary of the document. It may also appear elsewhere in the body of the document itself. It is highly desirable that the abstract of classified documents be unclassified. Each paragraph of the abstract shall begin with an indication of the security classification of the information in the paragraph (unless the document itself is unclassified) represented as (S), (C), (R), or (U). It is not necessary to include here abstracts in both official languages unless the text is bilingual.) This report is part three of a four part series describing how a decision analytic modeling approach called Value Focused Metrics (VFM) was applied to emergency preparedness planning processes in two cities on Vancouver Island using four scenarios. This volume describes how the research team used the subject matter expert input from across four sample scenarios to develop a single Unified model that could potentially serve as a baseline model for emergency preparedness planning and assessment. The research team s analysis confirmed that there is significant commonality across scenarios, especially as it relates to objectives. The common objectives were used as input in the development of a proof of concept Value Focused Metrics model that demonstrates it is possible to construct a baseline model. These finding reinforce the belief that a Value Focused Metrics approach to supporting emergency preparedness planning and assessment is technically feasible and potentially could advance the state of the art in this domain. Le présent rapport est le troisième volet d une série de quatre décrivant comment une approche de modélisation analytique décisionnelle intitulée «mesures axées sur les valeurs» (MAV) a été appliquée aux processus de planification de la préparation en cas d urgence dans deux villes, situées sur l île de Vancouver, à l aide de quatre scénarios. Ce document présente la façon dont l équipe de recherche a tiré profit des commentaires des experts en la matière dans (EM) concernant l ensemble des quatre scénarios dans le but d élaborer un seul modèle unifié pouvant servir de référence pour la planification et l évaluation de la préparation en cas d urgence. L analyse de l équipe a permis de confirmer que les scénarios présentent des caractéristiques communes importantes, plus particulièrement lorsqu il est question d objectifs. Les motifs généraux ont servi de données dans le cadre de l élaboration d un modèle de MAV pour la validation de principe indiquant qu il est possible de créer un modèle de référence. Ces résultats renforcent la croyance qu une approche de MAV à l appui de la planification et de l évaluation de la préparation en cas d urgence est possible sur le plan technique et pourrait faire progresser la technologie dans le domaine. DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ] 33

38 14. KEYWORDS, DESCRIPTORS or IDENTIFIERS (Technically meaningful terms or short phrases that characterize a document and could be helpful in cataloguing the document. They should be selected so that no security classification is required. Identifiers, such as equipment model designation, trade name, military project code name, geographic location may also be included. If possible keywords should be selected from a published thesaurus, e.g. Thesaurus of Engineering and Scientific Terms (TEST) and that thesaurus identified. If it is not possible to select indexing terms which are Unclassified, the classification of each should be indicated as with the title.) Emergency Management;Prevention; Mitigation; Preparedness; Response; Recovery; Emergency Planning; Value Focused Thinking; Value Focused Metrics; Mission to task analysis; Strategy to task analysis; Risk Management; Community planning; Models, Objectives; Metrics 34 DRDC CSS CR [enter number only: ]