Glasgow Community Planning Partnership Strategic Board. Glasgow City Council Youth Employment Review. Report by: Martin Collins

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1 Report to: Subject: Glasgow Community Planning Partnership Strategic Board Glasgow City Council Youth Employment Review GCPP Strategic Board Report by: Martin Collins Contact: Martin Collins Ext. 287 (7) Purpose and Introduction 1.1 The purpose of this report is to inform the Glasgow Community Planning Partnership (GCPP) Strategic Board of the work of the Glasgow City Council Youth Employment (YE) Review. Youth Employment Review 1.2 Following a Glasgow City Council Youth Employment Summit in August 2013, Glasgow City Council has been reviewing how the current approach to YE could be strengthened. The YE Review was established through the development of a YE Project Initiation Document (PID). The primary objective of the YE review is to strengthen Glasgow s approach to providing co-ordinated and targeted Council and CPP partner services that prepare young people for employment within the city and that give those young people the best possible chance of competing for the job opportunities available. 1.3 The YE PID set out a programme of work that would: set out a vision for YE in Glasgow within the context of the Glasgow economy and the skills and employment needs of businesses now and in the future; investigate how services could be delivered in a co-ordinated more efficient way that complement partner services and are client centred, meet economic needs and are focussed on interventions at the local level and; utilise labour market intelligence to help to make decisions about the targeting of Council and partner resources across the city and the design of interventions that meet the needs of both business and young people. This report updates the GCPP on the progress by the YE Review; provides the GCPP with the initial YE Review findings; updates the GCPP on outstanding YE Review work and provides the GCPP with the timetable for completing the YE Review. 1.4 The Strategic Review comprises the following key areas: Identify the plans and strategies across the Partnership and using recommendations from the Wood report 1, determine the key areas to focus on in terms of YE; Utilise data and intelligence to highlight the levels of unemployment and growth sectors in Glasgow and how this may impact in the future e.g. analysis of School Leaver Destinations and old Job Seekers Allowance claimants by multimember ward; 1 Education Working for All! Commission for Developing Scotland s Young Workforce Final Report, Sir Ian Wood, June 2014

2 Identify gaps within Labour market intelligence and how these gaps may potentially be addressed; Analyse findings of the Employer Attitude Survey to determine how working with employers can support YE. Based on the current survey timescales, it is probable that this analysis will need to be added to the YE Review after the YE Review report is launched; Identify how the Commonwealth Employment Initiative evaluation recommendations can inform future policy for YE. An The As-Is review has looked at the current Council Family, CPP and Youth Employment Partnership YE structures and service provision that support the delivery of demand and supply side interventions targeted at young people, from Primary 7 to 24 year olds. 2. Youth Employment Review Update: Strategic Review 2.1 The strategic review was undertaken to consider key policy drivers, economic trends and forecasts for the city. The analysis of policy drivers, economic trends and forecasts would provide a perspective on YE in the city to assist the development of the GCC/GCPP YE vision for the future and how young people will be supported within this vision. Employment Policies/Strategies 2.2 The first part of the strategic review was a literature review looking at current GCC/GCC Family/GCPP/Youth Employment Partnership (YEP) plans/strategies to identify the overarching plans and strategies that currently exist for YE in the city. The specific list of overarching Glasgow city plans and strategies which link specifically either to youth employment/employability agenda is provided below: GCC Strategic Plan 2012 to 2017 Glasgow City Deal Glasgow Single Outcome Agreement Poverty Leadership Panel: Action Plan for Change Glasgow Economic Commission/ Glasgow Economic Leadership Action Plan Glasgow Works Strategy Youth Employability Partnership Strategy/Framework Education Services: Employment Skills and Partnership Team Service Plan Social Work EPIG Action Plan 2013 to 2014 Glasgow Life Making it Work Employability Strategy (2012) Jobs and Business Glasgow Strategy 2013 to 2018 (Exec Summary) Community Safety Glasgow Strategy Clyde Gateway URC/ Clyde Gateway LOAN Report (TERU, 2012) Social Work Services: Joint Adult Services Plan 2013/15 Glasgow CJA Learning Skills and Employability Core Group Action Plan A summary of each of the plans/strategies will be presented as an appendix in the final YE Review report. 2.3 Of the plans and strategies surveyed for the review as detailed above the majority identify youth employment as a key priority and list specific targets to support this. It is also notable, the degree to which the majority of plans differentiate their approaches to

3 youth employment to target specific groups of young people who are disproportionately likely to be or become part of the long term unemployed population e.g. young people in and leaving care, young people from black and minority ethnic groups and young people with disabilities. 2.4 The Glasgow Single Outcome Agreement, with one of its three key priorities focused on increasing youth employment pulls together and reflects the targets set across the plans listed above and through its focus on supporting vulnerable groups links directly to the differentiation and drive towards creating an equitable suite of services that provide additional supports to our most vulnerable young people. 2.5 Many of the plans listed, directly reference the key priority areas identified through the Youth Employability Partnership (YEP) plan launched in which was designed by the YEP as the key strategic driver for youth employment related activity in the city. Given the considerable shift in emphasis of Government policy, at both a UK and Scotland-wide level since the publication of the YEP plan, it should be acknowledged that the plan in has been overtaken by the development of the Single Outcome Agreement and the revised Glasgow City Council Strategic Plan (2012/17). 2.6 In addition, a number of recent developments have further changed the policy context and landscape around the area of youth employment nationally and within the city particularly the introduction of the national Opportunities for All initiative and related performance measures underpinned by the national Youth Employment Strategy, the publication of the Scottish Government sponsored report from the Commission for Developing Scotland s Young Workforce led by Sir Ian Wood, Education Working for All!, ( the Wood Commission ) and the awarding of City Deal status to Glasgow and surrounding region. This rapid pace of change in policy development around youth employment has not been reflected in changes to the local planning structures for youth employment services based still on mechanisms outlined in the YEP plan in The Opportunities for All Initiative, launched by the Scottish Government in 2012 as an extension and formalisation of its More Choices, More Chances policy from 2006 and subsequent update 16+ Learning Choices in affords a guarantee of a place in employment, education or training for every young person who needs one. Opportunities for All continues to be implemented across Scotland with its performance measure a bi-annual official measure, from a real time status tracking database, of every young person s participation in post school economic or learning activity set to overtake current methods of measuring official youth unemployment numbers in Scotland and by Local Authority and ward area by The Commission for Developing Scotland s Young Workforce, established by the Scottish Government to explore ways of improving the skill base of Scotland s young people and helping to create increased and sustainable economic growth for the country, produced its final set of recommendations as part of the Education Working for All! report published in June The recommendations can be found at appendix The award of City Deal status to Glasgow provides significant direct funding for largescale infrastructure developments across the city and the wider city region. Whilst the terms of the City Deal directed by UK Govt do not provide direct funding to support youth employment, the scale of the overall award provides major opportunities to support youth employment in two ways: Through targeted social benefit contract clauses and leverage of match funding to address skills gaps for contractors and supply chain partners; and

4 Through targeted re-investment of GVA created by the initial cash investments and economic growth attributed to improved infrastructure within the city region Market Intelligence 2.10 Job Seekers Allowance Claimants: A summary of the latest information on young (16-24) Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Glasgow is that: the economic recession, as illustrated by the chart (below), had a significant impact upon Glasgow s youth population in terms of unemployment with all the 21 multi member electoral wards in Glasgow experiencing an increase between 2008 and the autumn of 2011 in the number of year olds claiming Job Seekers Allowance. The impact was in line with the overall impact in Scotland; since the autumn of 2011, the level of young JSA claimants has reduced to a level below that experienced before the recession and a closing in the gap between the Glasgow and Scottish rates of young JSA claimants; Rate of JSA Claimants 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 8.3% 7.5% 6.0% 5.5% Glasgow City rate Scotland rate 5.0% 4.3% 4.0% 4.6% 4.1% 3.0% Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 since the autumn of 2008, the chart below illustrates there has been a five fold increase in the percentage of young JSA claimants who are long term (more than a year) JSA claimants. This increase has reduced in the last eighteen months but the level of reduction is much less than the reduction experienced in the overall JSA numbers. As of April 2014, there were 655 long term young JSA claimants in Glasgow which is more than four times higher than the number (150) in August % % of JSA Claimants claiming for more than a year 20% 15% 16.6% 16.0% 10% 5% 3.2% 1.4% 0% Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Glasgow Scotland

5 2.11 School Leaver Destination Return: Since 2010/2011, there has been a 2.8 percentage point increase in the level of Glasgow s school leavers moving into positive destinations after school. As of 2012/13, Glasgow has 89.2% of its school leavers moving into positive destinations. Glasgow has narrowed the gap between local and national destination figures each year since However, until 12/13 Glasgow s level of school leavers moving into a negative destination was still 2.2 percentage points higher than the Scottish average and 2.3 percentage points higher re school leavers, whose destination was unemployed This relatively higher level of negative destinations in Glasgow for school leavers in 2013 was further added to as follow up information provided in June 2014 indicated that 4.5 percentage point fewer school leavers in 2013 remained in positive destinations than the initial measurement on leaving school. In both 2011/12 and 2012/13, Training was the positive destination with the highest drop-off percentage out of all the positive destinations Information on the following initiatives/supports for young people in Glasgow is presently being collated and analysis will be included in the YE Review Report: Commonwealth Initiative sector outcomes Mapping of the Job & Business Glasgow outcomes Postcodes of job outcomes that are >13 weeks and at least 16 hours Analysis of demographics of population in each ward and target areas for employment Analysis of location of services providing services for youth employment 2.14 It is not straightforward to make definite conclusions re the current Youth Employment situation solely based on the currently available information. There are issues with the availability, coherence, consistency and management of information relating to Youth Employment (e.g. data time lags and information only being available at a citywide level). These issues will be reported in more detail in the final YE Review report. However, the conclusion from the information above would be that Glasgow s overall YE position has improved since the middle of 2011 but there are issues that require tackling relating to o the increase in long term young unemployed o the lower than average school leaver positive destination rate o the higher than average and increasing level of young people who drop out from a positive destination within a year of leaving school 2.15 Employer Attitude Survey: This survey is to be conducted in August 2014 and the findings will be included within the final report Strategic Review: Preliminary Findings/Discussion Points 2.16 Whilst further market intelligence is presently being collated and analysis is still to be undertaken, the YE Strategic Review has identified some preliminary findings, as follows: The Youth Employment Partnership plan and associated structures are no longer fit for purpose given the change in the target Youth Employment age group from to Consultation on proposed new YE structures for Glasgow was part of the As-Is Review;

6 The City Deal for Glasgow and the Wood Commission Recommendations present a very clear set of opportunities for investment and a coherent direction of travel; The policy landscape has shifted to focus much more clearly on a continuum of coherent supports from school right through to 24 our current organisational approach sees a split between school transitions and everything that happens afterwards; The issue of under-representation of disenfranchised groups in the labour market is underpinned by a complex set of structural factors requiring a more comprehensive set of responses than can be delivered by one single programme or set of employability initiatives in the short-term. The new SOA and associated planning structures along with the additional resources afforded to the city through City Deal present an opportunity to develop longer term approaches to transformational change which could address the complex set of barriers currently preventing particular groups of young people from fulfilling their economic potential. Data limitations on young people and their economic status make it very difficult to draw confident conclusions about the scale of youth unemployment in the city. Presently, the data requirements to meet the Council and CPP s statutory obligations for the new Participation measure of youth employment are not in place. Allowing for the data limitations, the available data indicates some success in the measures currently in place in the city particularly when contrasted with unemployment rates for the wider population in Glasgow; Within the overall improving position, consideration should be given to an increased focus in Glasgow on o supporting the existing long term young unemployed; o preventing future long term young unemployed and o support for those in a positive destination at risk of moving to unemployment. 3. Youth Employment Review Update: As Is Review 3.1 The As Is Review entailed a mapping exercise of the Glasgow City Council (GCC) Family; Glasgow Community Planning Partnership (GCPP) partners and external organisations current YE provision across the city including; o o o o the current YE financial framework; the current range of interventions that are currently delivered to a) prepare young people for the world of work when in school, at transition point and post school and b) support businesses to recruit and train young people; how GCC, as an employer, supports young people into work; a review of GCC Family/GCCP roles and responsibilities. 3.2 The As Is Review s programme of work was taken forward through the already established structures of the GCPP. It was agreed, early in the planning phase, that it was important to have a wide consultation process involving partners, employers and young people to ensure that a co-production approach was taken that would gain commitment and ownership of the report recommendations and actions. The following consultation methods were used to provide both quantitative and qualitative information: A survey questionnaire to map out the current youth employment provision, infrastructure and delivery resources across the city was issued to 145 organisations, including Council Family/GCPP Partners. 68 questionnaires were completed with

7 additional information being provided by two organisations. It should be noted that the level of response varied across sectors (e.g. a low level of responses from Housing Organisations) and the quality of provided information was patchy; Stakeholder Interviews were undertaken to find out views on what the city needs to do better and where our youth employment services can be improved through a more joined-up and cohesive way. The interview write ups have been collated and analysis will be provided in the final report; Focus groups with delivery staff and young people took place to identify key issues and gaps in current services and to identify potential solutions; A workshop with 3rd Sector organisations to consider service improvements and their roles in service improvements. Further event will take place in August with the 3 rd Sector and with employers. Youth Employment Resourcing (expenditure) Financial Framework: The information in this section is initial analysis based on the 70 responses that provided details on current Youth Employment provision within Glasgow. Table1a: 2013/14 & 2014/15 YE Expenditure by Sector 13/14 YE Expenditure (exc. colleges) Other 163,333 Private Sector 1,210,000 Public Sector - ALEO 5,056,031 Public Sector - CPP Partner 13,502,421 Public Sector - GCC Dept 19,723,789 RSL/HA 38,500 Third Sector 12,185,597 TOTAL 51,879,671 Table1b: 2013/14 & 2014/15 YE Expenditure by Sector 13/14 YE Expenditure (inc. Colleges) Projected 14/15 Public Sector YE Expenditure Other 163,333 n/a Private Sector 1,210,000 n/a Public Sector - ALEO 5,056,031 4,787,398 Public Sector - CPP Partner 109,832, ,842,421 Public Sector - GCC Dept 19,723,789 17,304,722 RSL/HA 38,500 n/a Third Sector 12,185,597 n/a TOTAL 148,209, ,934,541 2 Throughout the report, funding has been attributed, unless indicated, to the source of the funding to minimise double counting (e.g. 3 rd sector service delivery that is funded by Integrated Grant Funds has been classified under Public Sector GCC Department). There may further minor changes to the expenditure figures prior to the final YE report as further clarification is being sought on some funding presently counted under Third Sector and Private Sector that may have been already counted under Public Sector - GCC Departments and Public Sector - CPP Partner as the public sector is the funding source.

8 Tables 1a and 1b illustrates that: 148.2m was spent on Youth Employment service provision in 2013/14 by the organisations who participated in the Youth Employment review; 136.6m (90.8%) of the reported 2013/14 expenditure on Youth Employment provision in Glasgow was by GCC Family and GCPP Partners, in particular by Glasgow Colleges ( 96.3m). Even when excluding the Glasgow Colleges expenditure, the public sector was still responsible for nearly three quarters ( 38.9m: 74.1% of the reported 2013/14 expenditure on Youth Employment; It is projected that there will be a reduction of 2.678m in YE expenditure among GCC Council Family/GCPP Partners between 2013/14 and 2014/15. 90% of the 2.677m projected reduction in 2014/15 YE expenditure is from GCC Department YE expenditure, primarily a 2.1m reduction in Development & Regeneration Services expenditure. As explained below, this reduction is entirely due to a drop in external funding i.e. Opportunities for All ( 2.022m) no longer being available and a gap in European funding. 3.4 Within the GCC Family/GCPP Partners expenditure on Youth Employment provision in 2013/14, 124.4m of the expenditure was provided by the following four organisations: Glasgow Colleges ( 96.3m 65.0% of total reported expenditure) Skills Development Scotland ( 11.7m 7.9% of total reported expenditure) Development and Regeneration Services ( 11.1m 7.5% of total reported expenditure) Education Services ( 5.2m 3.5% of total reported expenditure). 3.5 An analysis of YE expenditure by Source of Funding finds: the projected reduction in 2014/15 YE expenditure will be entirely due to a reduction ( 2.875m) in external funding. GCC Council Family/ GCPP Partners plan to actually increase their own funding towards YE expenditure by 198k between 2013/14 and 2014/15; at the time the information was requested, the 2014/15 reduction in external funding was primarily a result of Opportunities for All ( 2.022m) and European Social Fund ( 783k) funding being no longer available in 2014/15. Recently, agreement has been reached to provide funding on a temporary basis to cover the period between one tranche of ESF funding and the next tranche of ESF funding in The final report will include a detailed analysis of YE Expenditure by Employability Pipeline stages: More work is being done in relation to Expenditure by Employability Pipeline stages. These stages are: o Stage 1 (Personal Barriers) o Stage 2 (General Barriers) o Stage 3 (Specialist / Generic Employability Skills) o Stage 4 (Employment Work Placement / Subsidy) o Stage 5 (Employment Containment) There is emerging evidence that an increasing percentage of the expenditure is going toward subsidised employment. The review will look at what profile of expenditure is relevant to each stage.

9 3.7 In summary, the reported information on the current YE financial framework indicates that further work needs to be done on expenditure on specific stages of the Employability Pipeline; YE expenditure in Glasgow annually is c. 52m without and 150m with colleges; the majority of the expenditure is by public sector bodies; and the YE expenditure is due to reduce in 2014/15 for the reasons set out above. These are the initial findings and further analysis will be undertaken, primarily looking at the impact of the YE expenditure. Based on the initial findings, an initial question that may require to be discussed is whether the current and projected balance in expenditure between the Employability Pipeline Stages appropriate and sustainable? 4 Next Steps 4.1 As indicated throughout this report, the YE Review work is ongoing and there is outstanding work that requires to be completed prior to the submission of a finalised YE Review report. 4.2 The YE Review project timetable is that a Review report will be submitted to GCC s Extended Corporate Management Team in early September. Following this meeting, there will be a consultation on the YE Review findings among the Council Family and GCPP Partners. 4.3 It is anticipated that Review Report will then be finalised for launch at a Youth Employment summit later in the year. 5. Recommendations The Glasgow Community Planning Partnership Strategic Board is asked to i) Note the contents of the report, including the timetable for the next stages of the YR Review work ii) Consider and comment on the initial findings of the Youth Employment Review