The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market

Transcription

1 The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market David Deming Harvard University and NBER October 2016

2 Source: Acemoglu and Autor (2011)

3 Slowdown in demand for college graduates Source: Beaudry, Green and Sand (2014)

4 STEM majors have highest employment and earnings...

5 ...yet employment growth for STEM jobs has stalled. STEM Occupations Comp. Sci./Programming/Tech Support Operations Researchers Medical Scientists Math/Stats/Actuaries Pilots/Air Traffic Control Biological Scientists Physical Scientists Architects Engineering And Science Technicians Drafters And Surveyors Engineers (All)

6 Growth of non-stem professional jobs has accelerated All Other Managerial or Professional Occupations Teachers (K-12) Managers (All) Nurses Health Technicians Health Therapists Accounting And Finance Economists & Survey Researchers Social Workers, Counselors & Clergy Physicians College Instructors Lawyers & Judges Other Business Support Physicians' Assistants Legal Assistants & Paralegals Pharmacists Dental Hygienists Dentists Social Scientists And Urban Planners Arts & Entertainment, Athletes Marketing, Advertising & Pr Writers, Editors & Reporters

7 This gure was created in 2010!

8 Growing Importance of Social Skills Computers are substituting for tasks of rapidly increasing cognitive complexity. What tasks do computers complement? Can everything be automated?

9 Growing Importance of Social Skills Computers are substituting for tasks of rapidly increasing cognitive complexity. What tasks do computers complement? Can everything be automated? Social interaction

10 Growing Importance of Social Skills Computers are substituting for tasks of rapidly increasing cognitive complexity. What tasks do computers complement? Can everything be automated? Social interaction Skill in social settings is based on tacit knowledge and evolved over thousand of years - we don't know the rules (Autor 2015)

11 Growing Importance of Social Skills Computers are substituting for tasks of rapidly increasing cognitive complexity. What tasks do computers complement? Can everything be automated? Social interaction Skill in social settings is based on tacit knowledge and evolved over thousand of years - we don't know the rules (Autor 2015) Theory of mind

12

13 Source: National Survey of Colleges and Employers (2015)

14 Source: National Survey of Colleges and Employers (2015)

15

16 Employment growth for high math, high social jobs... Relative Changes in Employment Share by Occupation Task Intensity 1980 to 2012 Change in Employment Share Relative to High Math, High Social Low Social, High Math High Social, Low Math Low Social, Low Math Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: Census, ACS

17 and the same for wages... Relative Change in Real Hourly Wages by Occupation Task Intensity 1980 to 2012 Percent Change in Real Hourly Wage Relative to High Math, High Social Low Social, High Math High Social, Low Math Low Social, Low Math Occupational Task Intensity based on 1998 O*NET Sources: Census, ACS

18 How do we explain the success of STEM majors?

19 Employers Want Both Broad Knowledge and Specific Skills Source: Hart Research Associates, It Takes More Than a Major (2013).

20 Three implications 1. Cognitive jobs that don't require social interaction are disappearing. Cog + social jobs are thriving.

21 Three implications 1. Cognitive jobs that don't require social interaction are disappearing. Cog + social jobs are thriving. 2. Specic skills matter in the short-run. But they depreciate rapidly.

22 Three implications 1. Cognitive jobs that don't require social interaction are disappearing. Cog + social jobs are thriving. 2. Specic skills matter in the short-run. But they depreciate rapidly. 3. A successful career arc requires transferable skills.

23 Three implications 1. Cognitive jobs that don't require social interaction are disappearing. Cog + social jobs are thriving. 2. Specic skills matter in the short-run. But they depreciate rapidly. 3. A successful career arc requires transferable skills. 3.1 You can call them soft skills. For me this term highlights the limits of our understanding.

24 Thanks!