Deutsche Post DHL Group Metzler /Fraunhofer Industrie 4.0 Robert Schneider, Investor Relations, October 2015

Transcription

1 Deutsche Post DHL Group Metzler /Fraunhofer Industrie 4.0 Robert Schneider, Investor Relations, October 2015

2 Q HIGHLIGHTS Q2 EBIT development reflects PeP strike and execution of Strategy Investing to position our businesses for sustained growth in line with strategic and financial objectives of Strategy 2020 PeP wage agreement sets solid foundation, with one-off EBIT impact from strike of ~ EUR -100m in Q2 Forwarding turnaround measures in execution, new transformation course to be set in the next months Supply Chain accelerating restructuring measures Express performance continues strong trajectory with further 9% TDI volume growth driving 14% EBIT increase 2015 guidance adjusted to include one-off strike effect, 2016/20 guidance confirmed INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 2

3 FURTHER IMPORTANT STEPS TAKEN IN LINE WITH STRATEGY 2020 Strategic ambitions and priorities clearly defined in the divisions PeP Express DGFF Supply Chain Continued profitable mix shift towards Parcel growth needs to be based on sustainable, competitive wage structure in Germany Maintain successful TDI focus while cementing global competitive advantage through ongoing targeted investments Transform internal process and IT platform to establish efficient cost structure and improve customer service DSC Strategy 2020 addressing the key levers of Earnings Growth Model along Focus Connect Grow pillars Tariff negotiations successfully concluded Continuous network renewal & expansion Short-term operating actions initiated, IT decision to follow soon Execution based on an actionable, prioritized plan INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 3

4 LONG TERM WAGE AGREEMENT FINALIZED Tariff agreement until Jan 31, October 2015: one-time payment October 2016: +2.0% 1 October 2017: +1.7% No change to 38.5 working hours Extension of no redundancy agreement until 2019 No more outsourcing limit for parcel delivery, but job commitment for current DP parcel delivery staff; no outsourcing of letter or joint delivery until end 2018 DHL Delivery entities remain in place: expect further hiring of dedicated Parcel delivery employees to support dynamic Parcel growth Comprehensive package for all stakeholders safeguarding PeP competitiveness and facilitating further profitable growth INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 4

5 DHL NETWORK INVESTMENTS ENABLING EXPRESS GROWTH Cincinnati (CVG) HUB Expansion 2014/15 East Midlands HUB Expansion 2015 Leipzig HUB Expansion LHR Airport Expansion 2014 Tokyo GTW 2014/15 New Brussels HUB 2015/16 Saudi Arabia/ Egypt GTWs 2014/15 New Singapore HUB 2014/15 Continued network investments across all regions cement service leadership as a key driver of our TDI growth INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 5

6 MANAGEMENT AGENDA DEFINED AND IN EXECUTION MODE RE-EMPOWER: CURRENT TURN AROUND: REGAIN LEADERSHIP: PRIORITY Adjust organizational structure Re-empower countries and reestablish stronger accountability Re-enable staff and adjust incentives Improve absolute Gross Profit Increase and improve cost performance Specific country focus Improve service performance Sharpen commercial focus Invest in skills and capabilities though Certified program Review and renew our IT with a business-centric approach First changes to improve operating performance implemented, next turnaround measures in execution, decision on IT renewal expected in next months INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 6

7 DHL SUPPLY CHAIN HAS 9 INITIATIVES TO DELIVER STRATEGY 2020 Focus Drive standardization and reduce complexity 1 Improvement of underperforming business Connect Create an effective organization globally 4 Efficient and effective functions Grow Shift the portfolio 7 Value added services 2 Operational standardization 5 Consistent and lean organization globally 8 Global sectors and products 3 Commercial standardization 6 Culture and mindset shift 9 Geographical shift to increase efficiency to enable change to address attractive segments INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 7

8 STRATEGY 2020: TOPLINE GROWTH AND MARGIN IMPROVEMENT Attractive growth in key addressable market segments within logistics GDP growth assumptions +2% +5% Estimated Market CAGR , in EUR Mature Regions Emerging Markets +5-7% +8% +5-6% +2-3% +4-5% +5-6% Parcel Germany Parcel Domestic International International Express Air Freight Forwarding Ocean Freight Forwarding Contract Logistics Main Strategic Drivers Revenue mix shift to parcel and increased exposure to e-commerce structural growth trend Continued focus on TDI with network, efficiency and scale effects Improve Forwarding operating performance while reviewing transformation course Standardization, overhead leverage and contract portfolio enhancement All divisions will contribute towards >8% group EBIT CAGR target INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 8

9 2015 EBIT GUIDANCE ADJUSTED FOR PEP STRIKE EFFECT 2016 and 2020 Guidance confirmed EUR bn PeP At least 1.2 (from at least 1.3) > 1.3 ~ 3% CAGR DHL ~ 10% CAGR CC/Other ~ ~ < 0.5% of group revenue Group (from ) > 8% CAGR FY 2015: Free Cash Flow to exceed 2014 dividend Tax rate around 16.5% (from around 18%) Gross Capex of around EUR 2.0bn INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 9

10 2014 DIVIDEND INCREASE OF 6% AND UNCHANGED FINANCE POLICY Deployment of Free Cash Flow Dividend of EUR 0.85 per share FINANCE POLICY, UNCHANGED Target / maintain rating BBB % % % % % 60% Underlying Payout Ratio 1) 40% Dividend payout ratio to remain between 40 60% of net profit (continuity and Cash Flow performance considered) Excess liquidity will be used for Stepwise pension funding and / or Share buybacks and/or extraordinary dividends 1) Adjusted for Postbank effects as well as non-recurring items INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 10

11 DPDHL GROUP STRATEGIC AGENDA Executing on our short-term agenda Secured a constructive tariff agreement that provides a sustainable, competitive wage structure in Germany for PeP Moving into second phase of stabilization and transformation in Forwarding Executing accelerated Supply Chain restructuring measures Continue investments in successful Express operations to build momentum for our long term strategic and financial goals: Leveraging growth in e-commerce and emerging markets, based on unrivalled, diversified business portfolio Clear roadmap for margin and profit improvement Flexible balance sheet and improving cash generation underpin payout policy INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 11

12 Divisional Information INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 12

13 DEUTSCHE POST DHL AT A GLANCE Group Group revenues 1) : 56.6bn Group EBIT 1) : 2.965bn Approximately 440,000 employees Corporate Divisions Post - ecommerce- Parcel Express Global Forwarding Freight Supply Chain 63% market share in letter mail, 43% market share in German parcel market, selected international parcel activities Sales: EUR 15,686m EBIT: EUR 1,298m Empl. 2) : 164,582 Global Time-Definite- International (TDI) leader with 34% market share Sales: EUR 12,491m EBIT: EUR 1,260m Empl. 2) : 73,009 World s largest Air and 2nd largest Ocean freight forwarder, No2 in European road freight Sales: EUR 14,924m EBIT: EUR 293m Empl. 2) : 44,311 Global market leader, market share of 8% well ahead next biggest competitors Sales: EUR 14,737m EBIT: EUR 465m Empl. 2) : 146,400 Corporate Center / Other: Sales: EUR 1,343m; EBIT: EUR -351m Brands 1) Financial year 2014; 2) Average FTEs FY 2014 INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 13

14 Focus. Connect. Grow. POST, E-COMMERCE & PARCEL INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 14

15 PeP: STRONG OPERATING EFFORT TO CONTAIN STRIKE IMPACTS Mail Communication revenue Dialogue Marketing revenue Business Highlights m EUR -3.6% 1,576 1,520 Q Parcel Germany revenue m EUR Q ) Parcel Europe ex Germany; 2) Parcel outside Europe INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER Q % Q Parcel Germany volumes Parcel Europe revenue 1) DHL ecommerce revenue 2) m EUR 906 Q % +8.6% 990 Q m EUR m units m EUR % Q % Q Q Q Q Q Diligent preparation, good execution as well as employee commitment allowed to minimize customer disturbance from strike actions Mail Communication (-5.3%) and Dialogue Marketing (-12.8%) volume development notably affected by the strike as well as price increases Unabated strong volume and revenue growth in Parcel Germany, despite strike effects Continued growth in international Parcel activities in and outside of Europe supported by positive currency developments Despite strike impacts, revenue growth in ecommerce - Parcel continued to outweigh Post revenue decline PAGE 15

16 PeP DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,642 3, % Revenue increase reflecting growth across ecommerce - Parcel activities as well as price increases in Post products, offsetting Post volume weakness due to strike EBIT % EBIT decline mainly due to ~ EUR -100m strike related effects Operating Cash Flow % Strong working capital management helps to offset large part of EBIT decline Capex >+100% Capex well above last year, reflecting planned investment increase in Parcel activities INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 16

17 PeP: STRUCTURAL REDUCTION IN PERSONNEL FACTOR COSTS DUE TO LAUNCH OF NEW PARCEL DELIVERY UNITS Average wages, in EUR/h Currently ~6,000 employees * 8.50* 8.50* * Legal minimum wage DHL Delivery GmbH Deutsche Post AG Degree of outsourcing 100% 100% 95% 33% 0% <5% Wage costs at Deutsche Post AG significantly above competition Launch of new Delivery GmbHs reduces gap to competition since average wage level at EUR/h instead of EUR/h at DPAG INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 17

18 PeP 2020 TARGET: SUPPORTED BY MIX SHIFT TOWARDS PARCEL PeP: Revenue Mix PeP: Market Assumptions 19% % ecommerce & Parcel Market growth assumption (in EUR), , p.a.: +5-7% Germany domestic; +8% international domestic Price regulation: No regulatory price cap 81% 64% Post Mail division excl. Parcel Parcel Germany Post ecommerce - Parcel E-commerce trend to continue to drive mix shift from letter to parcel products Expected average letter volume decline of -2 to -3% p.a. Price regulation: price cap = CPI - 0.2% Stamp price increase 1) : +2.8% in % in % as of Jan 1, 2015 e-post revenues: > 300m in ) Average increase on basket of regulated products, applicable to EUR ~3.3bn directly affected Post revenue INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 18

19 DHL PARCEL EUROPE BUSINESS MODEL IS UP AND RUNNING Domestic delivery Domestic B2X delivery in Poland, Czech Republic, The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, leveraging previously mainly B2B-focused assets shifted from DHL in 2014 & Cross-border tradelanes All Parcel Europe countries offer B2X parcels to/from Germany, especially beneficial to extend already strong customer relationships in Germany February 2015: market entry in Slovakia Substantial Parcelshop expansion Strong increase in number of access/drop-off locations leads to significant upgrade in customer proximity DHL Parcelshops Europe, ex-germany ~1,150 Jan-14 INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER >100% ~3,000 Jan-15 Broad roll-out of B2C services, e.g. Start of 6-day delivery in The Netherlands and Belgium week mo-sa Polish ecommerce market place up and running PAGE 19

20 DHL ecommerce : LOGISTICS PROVIDER FOR FC BAYERN CHINA STORE DHL Service Offering DHL ecommerce enables FC Bayern to merchandise goods in China via a flagship store on Alibaba s Tmall DHL ecommerce also responsible for: WEBSHOP & LISTING, MARKETING, CUSTOMER SERVICE, ORDER MANAGEMENT & ACCOUNTING DHL ecommerce provides full cross-border logistics solution, including customs & returns Service execution provided in cooperation with DHL Supply Chain, DHL Global Forwarding and local partners DHL ecommerce: strong capabilities for international e-commerce tradelanes INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 20

21 PeP: DHL ecommerce IS AN ESTABLISHED PLAYER IN THE US ecommerce: leveraging established US presence US Domestic distribution capacities Consolidation and sortation of domestic and international mail and parcels #4 US in consolidator market for USPS (SmartMail product) Adding fulfillment services and products in collaboration with DHL Supply Chain Combining domestic and international delivery with best-inclass supply chain technology First dedicated e- fulfillment warehouse in Columbus,OH As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 21

22 PeP: BLUE DART PROVIDES BASE FOR DHL ecommerce IN ASIA Domestic market leader for B2B and B2C parcels in India Domestic distribution capacities South Asia s premier express and integrated package distribution company 52% market share in domestic air express in India Adding fulfillment services and products in collaboration with DHL Supply Chain Blue Dart: front-end, customer interface and delivery; DSC: warehousing and 3PL E-fulfillment facility in Delhi close to go-live with first global customer As part of Strategy 2020 we are moving up the e-commerce value chain INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 22

23 WORKING DAYS GERMANY Q Q H Q ,8 9M Q ,2 H FY INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 23

24 Focus. Connect. Grow. EXPRESS INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 24

25 EXPRESS: STRONG TDI GROWTH CONTINUES Time Definite International (TDI) 1) Revenues per day in EUR m 36.8 Q Time Definite International (TDI) Shipments per day 000s 700 Q % +8.6% 1) Currency translation impacts are eliminated. Data aggregated with same currency rate 38.2 Q Q Business Highlights Continued strong growth with TDI volume +8.6% Comprehensive global footprint paying off as Europe volumes (+14.4%) shows strongest growth in Q2 ahead of MEA (+9.2%) and Asia/Pacific (+6.1%) Decline in Americas volumes (-2.4%) reflects change in customer mix; very solid growth in base revenue/day in the region, i.e. excluding fuel surcharge and FX effects Growth again ahead of market driven by focus on offering best and fastest premium service for our TDI customers Slower revenue increase compared to volume growth due to lower fuel surcharge, as in Q1 INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 25

26 EXPRESS DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,089 3, % EBIT % Continued strong TDI volume growth supported by positive FX effects. Organic revenue growing +2.7%, impacted by significant decrease in fuel surcharge revenue Strong EBIT growth driven by continued TDI volume increase, EBIT margin up 20bp yoy to 10.9% Operating Cash Flow % Reduction in OCF mainly due to large utilization of a restructuring provision related to 2008/09 US Express restructuring (EUR ~50m cash out; provision at EUR ~200m now) Capex % Acceleration in line with investment plans. Continue to invest principally in international hub and gateway infrastructure upgrade INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 26

27 DHL EXPRESS: GLOBAL TDI MARKET SHARES Continued TDI leadership across all regions outside the Americas Americas [EUR 6.8bn ] 1% 3% +1% 18% 46% 32% Europe [EUR 6.0bn] 12% 10% 41% 12% +1% 25% Asia Pacific [EUR 6.8bn] 21% 4% 44% 11% +2% 20% Global [EUR 20.1bn] +x% Change vs 2012 MI study DHL TNT UPS FedEx Others 6% 12% 34% Source: MI study 2014 EU : AT, DE, DK, ES, FR, IT, NL, RU, TR, UK AM : BR, CA, CL, CO, CR, GT, MX, PA, PE, US AP : CN, HK, IN, JP, KR, SG GLOBAL : EU + AM + AP + (AE + SA + ZA) 22% 26% +1% INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 27

28 DHL EXPRESS FOCUS ON TDI Continue successful FOCUS strategy DHL Express Core Product 2009 Revenue distribution 2014 Revenue distribution TDI (Time Definite International) The premium segment within Express Industry 11% 14% 5% 12% 58% 2% 12% 3% 8% 75% Time Definite = Dedicated delivery at a scheduled time of day International = Cross-Border Shipment (intra- or between continents) TDI: requires dense and broad international network TDI TDD DDI DDD ACS / Other TDD: Time Definite Domestic Revenue Share = Delivery at scheduled time within one country. DDI: Day Definite International DDD: Day Definite Domestic ACS: Air Capacity Sales (re-sale of spare capacity on dedicated fleet to optimize utilization, not sold by core Express sales teams) INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 28

29 DHL EXPRESS: VIRTUAL AIRLINE MODEL & AIR CAPACITY SALES Virtual Airline Approx. 500 airports and 22 major hubs connected through 1. Dedicated air: >250 aircrafts with 17 partner airlines on >600 daily flights 2. Purchased air: >300 commercial airlines with >1.800 daily flights 52% Capacity Commitment 22% 26% 0-90 Days (incl. Purchased Air) Days Fixed BSA CORE TDI CAPA- CITY FLEX ACS GUAR. Air Capacity Sales Block Space Agreement, guaranteed air cargo product. Express TDI core product, capacity based on average utilization, adjusted on a daily basis CORE Flex & Air Capacity Sales Flex, a set amount of the Total Spare Capacity to be utilised for TDI core volume surge and/or air cargo filler traffic Air cargo guaranteed, a set amount of the Total Spare Capacity guaranteed for priority traffic & key customers INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 29

30 Focus. Connect. Grow. FORWARDING, FREIGHT INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 30

31 GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT: FOCUS ON BUSINESS TURNAROUND Air freight 000s Tons Business Highlights 1, % 933 Air freight volumes decline due to active yield management in competitive markets. Ocean volume flat, mainly due to continued weakness in Asian exports Q Q GP/ton in Air Freight increased by 9.5% GP/TEU in Ocean Freight declined 6.3% Ocean freight 000s TEU 1) Division GP flat reflecting continued market challenges as well as currency effects 748 Q % 750 Q Thorough review of EBIT performance by new divisional management led to turnaround and transformation agenda. First organisational measures implemented during Q2 1) Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 31

32 GLOBAL FORWARDING, FREIGHT DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,638 3, % Revenue increase driven by FX effects. Organic revenue down -1.5% Gross Profit % Persistent difficult market environment with underlying GP margin pressure, despite positive FX effects EBIT % Further affected by ongoing transformation and turnaround program as well as difficult market conditions, partially offset by Sinotrans stake sale Operating Cash Flow >+100% Improving on better working capital management Capex % Capex decrease reflects decreased investments for NFE INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 32

33 Focus. Connect. Grow. SUPPLY CHAIN INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 33

34 SUPPLY CHAIN: ACCELERATING RESTRUCTURING EFFORTS New signings, EUR m 1) Q Q ) Annualized revenue Revenue by sector Q Others 10% 5% Retail Williams Lea Energy 23% 3% Automotive 11% 9% 19% Consumer Technology 20% Life Sciences & Healthcare Business Highlights Sound order intake in Q2 (EUR 266m) especially in Technology, Consumer and Life Sciences & Healthcare Strong growth in developed markets, also Asia Pacific with substantial volume and new business growth Further steps taken in implementing Strategy 2020 as presented at November 2014 Capital Markets Tutorial Restructuring charges cover implementation of consistent and lean organizational structure as well as addressing underperforming business areas INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 34

35 SUPPLY CHAIN DIVISIONAL RESULTS Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 3,618 4, % FX continues to support revenue development. Organic revenue growth was 0.7% reflecting termination of larger customer contract in 2014 as well as lower fuel prices EBIT % Higher real estate related income driven by King s Cross stake sale allowed to accelerate restructuring charges to EUR 55m. Good contribution to EBIT growth from new business start-ups Operating Cash Flow <-100% OCF decline reflects volume, FX and timing related working capital movements Capex % Capex spending in line with last year, mainly supporting new contract start-ups INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 35

36 SUPPLY CHAIN: TAKING PERFORMANCE TO THE NEXT LEVEL DHL Supply Chain is a successful member of DPDHL family of divisions Strong and increasing returns based on resilient, asset-light business model ROCE, incl. Goodwill 12% 13% 14% 15% Warehousing 45% 18% 10% Value Added Services Williams Lea % Transportation Supply Chain Strategy 2020 set to deliver further performance improvement EBIT margin 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3,2% New 2020 margin target: 4-5% 2020 For more information DPDHL Capital Markets Tutorial Workshop London, November 13, ntations/capital_markets_day.html INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 36

37 Appendix INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 37

38 GROUP P&L Q EUR m Q Q Chg. Management comments Revenue 13,695 14, % EBIT % Positive currency effects support revenue growth. Organic revenue slowdown to 0.6% reflects PeP strike effects as well as impact from lower energy prices Group EBIT decline with strong Express growth being offset by strike effect and continued weakness in Forwarding t/o PeP % EBIT decline due to ~ EUR -100m strike effects t/o DHL % Express continues strong growth path. Supply Chain and Forwarding, Freight EBIT supported by asset sales while continuing transformation / restructuring Financial result % Slightly below previous year due to currency effects Taxes % H1 tax rate of 16.5%, reflecting new full year estimate Cons. net profit 1) % Net profit and EPS primarily affected by EBIT decline EPS (in EUR) 2) % 1) Attributable to Deutsche Post AG shareholders; 2) Undiluted INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 38

39 SUMMARY OF MAJOR EFFECTS ON Q2 RESULTS Division PeP Global Forwarding, Freight Supply Chain Non-recurring effects (+/-) Strike effects: Revenue lost / delayed No wage costs for striking employees Costs for alternative labor / overtime + - Disposal of Sinotrans stake (EUR +99m) One-time costs for turnaround measures (EUR -81m) + - King s Cross stake sale driving significantly higher real estate related income (EUR +53m) Restructuring costs (EUR -55m) Net EBIT impact (Q2 yoy) ~ EUR -100m EUR +18m EUR -2m Strategic rationale Tarif negotiations settled with more competitive long-term wage structure 1. Stabilization of operating performance 2. Review course of transformation King s Cross sale provided opportunity to accelerate restructuring process INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 39

40 FREE CASH FLOW Q EBIT decline, asset sales and capex increase main influences on FCF EUR m Q Q Cash from operating activities before changes in Working Capital Changes in Working Capital Net cash from operating activities after changes in Working Capital OCF generation reflects overall EBIT decline, restructuring cashouts and smaller pension funding in a subsidiary Strong management of working capital continues to contribute positively vs prior year Net Capex Net M&A Cash out for Capex increasing in line with full-year expectation Rise in net M&A proceeds resulting from disposals of Sinotrans stake in DGF and King s Cross development stake in DSC Net Interest Interest expense decline reflecting lower interest rate environment Free Cash Flow FFO/Debt at 26.3% (March 31: 24.9%) INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 40

41 NET DEBT (-)/LIQUIDITY (+) Seasonality drives usual Q2 net debt increase with annual DPDHL dividend payment of EUR 1,030bn in EUR m -1,499 1, ,036-2,989 Net debt (Dec 31, 2014) OCF before change in W/C Changes in W/C Net capex Net interest Net Other effects incl. M&A Dividend Paid Net debt (Jun 30, 2015) INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 41

42 REMINDER ON PENSIONS: DEFINED BENEFIT OBLIGATIONS (DBO) DBO pensions in Germany No regulatory funding requirement Pensions paid partially from plan assets and partially from current OCF Impact of change in discount rates Balance sheet: net pension provision down EUR 2.7bn in Q due to a step-up in Euro discount rate P&L: slight increase in staff costs expected in 2015 (mainly due to higher current service costs), mostly offset by small decline in finance costs. Changes made only on annual basis based on year end rates. Cash flow: cash outflow not directly affected as actual pension payments and employer contributions to plan assets not affected by fluctuations in applied discount rate levels Total DBO Plan assets Net Pension Provision 20,484 11,849 8,635 Mar. 31, ,612 11,708 5,904 Jun. 31, 2015 in EUR m Q Q Average Discount Rate (quarter-end) 2.04% 3.04% EUR Discount Rate (quarter-end) 1.50% 2.75% Rising discount rates have significant effect on liability, but little effect on cash generation INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 42

43 STABLE CAPITAL INTENSITY EXPECTED Gross Capex / Sales ratio - Group & by division 6.0% Gross Capex intensity, average EXPRESS ~4% 5.0% 4.0% PeP ~3% 3.0% SUPPLY CHAIN ~2% 2.0% FORWARDING ~1% 1.0% 0.0% GROUP AVERAGE ~3% EXPRESS GROUP PeP SUPPLY CHAIN DGF INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 43

44 STRATEGY 2015 HAS DRIVEN SIGNIFICANT OPERATING IMPROVEMENT PeP: EBIT stabilization delivered DHL EBIT margins (2) : good progress, more to come to contribute to ~10% DHL EBIT CAGR target in EUR bn 1,286 1,298 1) 10.2% 1,199 Strategy 2015 EBIT target: min. EUR 1bn 1,120 1,107 1) 4.4% 2.7% 1.8% 2.9% 1.7% Q Strategy 2020 target: 3% EBIT CAGR Express: strong improvement Supply Chain: steady progress Forwarding, Freight: currently affected by NFE and low GP margins 1) Reported FY 12 EBIT including EUR -151m one-off effect from VAT settlement; Reported FY13 was restated by EUR ~60m for asset shift from DHL implemented on January 1, ) EBIT margin, last 12 months (rolling) INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 44

45 OUR AMBITION FOR THE EMERGING MARKETS Group revenue footprint 78% 70% 22% 30% Today 2013 Target 2020 target Building on our leading market positions in growth regions, 30% emerging market targets is AMBITIOUS BUT ACHIEVABLE Mature Markets Emerging Markets INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 45

46 FOCUS. CC/OTHER COSTS CC / Other cost, as % of revenue CC / Other cost structure, % Investments into growth & cross-divisional initiatives Corporate bodies (e.g. CB, SVB) and legal obligations/ foundations 0.7% 0.6% 20% 20% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% TARGET % Core Corporate Center costs INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 46

47 DISCLAIMER THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS CERTAIN STATEMENTS THAT ARE NEITHER REPORTED RESULTS NOR OTHER HISTORICAL INFORMATION. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE EXPRESSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. MANY OF THESE RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES RELATE TO FACTORS THAT ARE BEYOND DEUTSCHE POST AG S ABILITY TO CONTROL OR ESTIMATE PRECISELY, SUCH AS FUTURE MARKET AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, THE BEHAVIOR OF OTHER MARKET PARTICIPANTS, THE ABILITY TO SUCCESSFULLY INTEGRATE ACQUIRED BUSINESSES AND ACHIEVE ANTICIPATED SYNERGIES AND THE ACTIONS OF GOVERNMENT REGULATORS. READERS ARE CAUTIONED NOT TO PLACE UNDUE RELIANCE ON THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS, WHICH APPLY ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. DEUTSCHE POST AG DOES NOT UNDERTAKE ANY OBLIGATION TO PUBLICLY RELEASE ANY REVISIONS TO THESE FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS TO REFLECT EVENTS OR CIRCUMSTANCES AFTER THE DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. THIS PRESENTATION DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO SUBSCRIBE FOR OR BUY ANY SECURITY, NOR SHALL THERE BE ANY SALE, ISSUANCE OR TRANSFER OF THE SECURITIES REFERRED TO IN THIS PRESENTATION IN ANY JURISDICTION IN CONTRAVENTION OF APPLICABLE LAW. COPIES OF THIS PRESENTATION AND ANY DOCUMENTATION RELATING TO THE OFFER ARE NOT BEING, AND MUST NOT BE, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, MAILED OR OTHERWISE FORWARDED, DISTRIBUTED OR SENT IN OR INTO OR FROM AUSTRALIA, CANADA OR JAPAN OR ANY OTHER JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD BE UNLAWFUL. THIS DOCUMENT REPRESENTS THE COMPANY S JUDGMENT AS OF DATE OF THIS PRESENTATION. INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 47

48 INVESTOR RELATIONS CONTACTS Martin Ziegenbalg, Head of Investor Relations Robert Schneider Sebastian Slania Sarah Bowman Christian Rottler INVESTOR RELATIONS OCTOBER 2015 PAGE 48