The case for the Digital Railway. Patrick Bossert. Digital Railway Transformation Director. Agenda

Transcription

1 The case for the Digital Railway Patrick Bossert Digital Railway Transformation Director Agenda

2 A railway that delivers better economic return for every invested in the network up to +40% seats at 30% lower cost +1bn Journeys by 2029 A railway that meets the demands of a growing economy up to 8% urban growth +15% reliable 2-4bn less/cp Digitally modernised for a lower cost, more reliable railway

3 Capacity for Growth The critical challenge for the GB railway

4 Access to skills Rail today Enhances the productive potential of the economy by 11.3bn p/a Access to ideas Access to suppliers Access to markets Access to innovation

5 City-Region GDP 5%-8% p/a Non London rail growth % Edinburgh Steady economic growth is driving demand for more passenger and freight capacity Forth Liverpool Tyne Immingham 12% Newcastle 20% Manchester 21% Sheffield 25% Norwich 22% Birmingham Southampton Felixstowe London Thameside 19% Cambridge 17% Plymouth 26% Milton Keynes

6 So, what is the future GB economic potential enabled by rail for the next 25 years? Access to skills Access to ideas Access to suppliers Access to markets Access to innovation Size of the national prize: - Digitally modernised - Conventionally enhanced - vs. do nothing

7 Making the case for the Digital Railway SOC June15 fobc Oct 15 OBC (IIP) Sept 16 FBC (SBP) Sept 17 Built on economic assessments of: Cost Customer Capacity Carbon Safety Indicative Line of route Modelled for a BCR

8 The case for a more effective network

9 Today s railway: Poor utilisation by design 50% is blank space Signal sighting and directionality are limited Safety system is used to control traffic flow too many start/stops

10 Digital Railway Bi-directional by design Better utilisation of existing infrastructure Better return on every invested in new infrastructure

11 More Trains enables localised choice Better Connections Greater Reliability

12 Line of route characteristics Capacity Reliability Better connections Lower Cost South West Main Line London Commuter, freight and interregional Northern Powerhouse Rail transformational programme linking the Northern cities Midland Main Line long distance high-speed, interregional freight and London commuter Brighton Main Line London commuter Leicester Ely Freight Felixstowe to north and midlands and interregional Cardiff Valleys non-london commuter Aberdeen to Central Belt interregional and freight Grantham Skegness rural Essex Thameside London commuter and freight opportunity to achieve greater capacity benefits and cost savings with future implementation of ETCS Level 3

13 A railway that delivers better economic return for every invested in the network A railway that meets the demands of a growing economy Digitally modernised for a lower cost, more reliable railway

14 Seats in the peak 30,000 Enhancements: a better economic return SWML Case Study: Conventional: Requires an extra track Decade of severe overcrowding Decade of costly disruption Slower revenue growth Higher-cost railway to maintain Crowding Longer trains & platforms New flyover + 2 new trains Major land acquisition Major civils intervention (new track) + 8 new trains! urban 5 year 5 year 5 year 5 year!

15 Peak trains per hour 30,000 Enhancements: a better economic return SWML Case Study: + scope for more trains Digital Approach: More capacity, sooner At lower cost New flyover +3 new trains avoided + 2 new trains Supply matched to demand Optimised cost/revenue for TOC 30% lower cost to add capacity Decade of disruption avoided No 5 th track maintenance cost Further room to grow Crowding Longer trains & platforms Driver Advisory Systems and Traffic Management + 2 new trains p/h ATO & ETCS + 5 new trains 5 year 5 year 5 year 5 year Full trains

16 Enhancements: a better economic return Based on three case studies for the OBC NB: It won t be possible to do this for the whole UK, as very few conventional enhancement schemes are sufficiently defined to provide a counterfactual case. Modelled timetable options for: South West Main Line (SWML) East Coast Main Line (ECML) Great Eastern Main Line (GEML) Plus initial outcome estimates for: Initial Trans-Pennine HS2 and Crossrail2

17 A railway that delivers better economic return for every invested in the network A railway that meets the demands of a growing economy Digitally modernised for a lower cost, more reliable railway

18 Based on three capacity/growth case studies and on the national model for a lower-cost, reliable railway what is the railway s potential to deliver the economic growth prize? Do nothing 3%? Conventionally enhanced Digitally modernised 40%? 95%? HS2 CR2

19 A railway that delivers better economic return for very invested in the network A railway that meets the demands of a growing economy Digitally modernised for a lower cost, more reliable railway

20 A lower cost, more reliable railway 2-4bn less/cp

21 Annual Infrastructureattributed Delay Minutes, by category: A lower cost, more reliable railway 742,527 1,527, ,965 1,142,349 = 30 Months of delay 15% of total delays avoided Other faults (e.g. earthworks, fire, bridge strikes) Track faults (e.g. broken rails) Non-track (e.g. power, telecoms, points) Signalling

22 Freight Speed A lower cost, more reliable railway Train Performance Considerable increase in average speed from 23mph due to better management of traffic. Energy Efficiency c.10% reduction due to fewer start/stops. Revenue c.10% uplift in capacity resulting from better management of traffic through pinch-points, which can be monetised. c. 60m c. 400m TOC FOC benefit p/a Modal Shift c. 40m C/Sat+ Minor variance to timetabled performance absorbed. Fast recovery from major disruption. 80% of secondary delay eliminated. Reliability and Safety 80% of SPADs and overspeeds eliminated, improving safety and removing over 600 significantly disruptive driver-related events per year.

23 A railway that delivers better economic return for every invested in the network up to +40% seats at 30% lower cost +1bn Journeys by 2029 A railway that meets the demands of a growing economy up to 8% urban growth +15% reliable 2-4bn less/cp Digitally modernised for a lower cost, more reliable railway