Integrated Project (IP) Thematic Priority 6: Global Change and Ecosystems

Transcription

1 Integrated Project (IP) Thematic Priority 6: Project No. TIP5-CT Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems Cost category: material costs Cost categories Technical structure Life Cycle Phases Life Cycle Phase: Operation Cost element: Material cost of component A in the LCC phase operation Deliverable D6.5.4

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5 Contributions

6 Glossary

7 Table of Figures

8 1. Executive Summary

9 2. Introduction and current stateof-the-art

10 Status Quo Technical performance Reliability Availability Maintainability Environmental perform. Noise Ground born vibration Costs (drivers) Investment Operation Maintenance Non availability Innovation / Optim. Technical performance Reliability Availability Maintainability Tolerance against conditions Environmental perform. Noise Ground born vibration Change in Costs... Life cycle costing Economical effects Change in initial investment (t=0) Migration costs Costs for new regulations Decreasing costs for environmental sustainability Decrease maintenance cost Decrease costs for non availability Additional income? Decision by Life Cycle Cost Traffic prognosis Social economical effects

11 Frequencies of service life [] Under designed Bad Over designed First change of components

12 Availability [] Time [a] Tech. optimum Economical optimum?

13 3. Principles of RAMS and LCC Analysis

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15 Maintenance Inspection / Diagnostic Service Repair preventive Maintenance corrective Maintenance (punctual equipment condition monitoring, unwanted condition is already happened) Deferred Immediate Condition-based Maintenance (equipment condition monitoring, Activity on condition) planned / predetermined Maintenance (no equipment condition monitoring)

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17 Conceptual Formulation Description of the LCC tasks, specs Boundary Conditions In/Out Frame Establishing the basics Cost-Breakdown- Structure (CBS) Product-Breakdown- Structure (PBS) Definition Of variants Cost Matrix CBS, PBS, Variants Making decision Developing of LCC contract Tender procedure Data assessment Processing of data Determination of data Analyse of data Resilient LCC data Implementation Validation Determination of LCC values Choice of the right tool, software Evaluation of the LCC Sensitivity Analysis NPV of the variants Formulating Recommendation Interpretation of the results LCC values (Break-Even, Annuity, key value) Formulating of a recommendation Base for decision Monitoring, Feedback Update of LCC data Ensuring the circuit of knowledge

18 Output To Do Chapter, Template, Tool Who Definition of RAMS/LCC task specify the task, problem, question to be solved system or component? existing or new track? definition of the specs, requirements, key values RAMS analysis necessary,feasible? any expecting benefit? LCC/RAMS task Chapter 4.1, 4.2, 4.6 Approval of RAMS specs Shareholders, customer, team Establishment of the basics definition of RAMS parameter, targets, needs (CRS) definition of bound. conditions, Variant study System Requirements Specs (SRS) In/Out Frame Chapter RAMS targets, preferred variants Customer, team Data asssessment processing of data determination of data analyse and assessement of data (verification) Team according to the LCC procedure of WMP from DB (dated: ) Database Databse Chapter Chapter 3.0, 4.6 RAMS data RAMS (LCC) analyse modelling, review of models RAMS analyse Team combined RAMS/LCC analyse e. e. g. g. D-LCC, RAMSOffice Chapter , RAMS (LCC) analyse Validation, Output interpretation of the results taking reference to the fixed specs validation of RAMS and LCC calculations Validation Key values chapter 4.10, 7.2 Team RAMS (LCC) results Report Implementation report (compilation of the results) implementation Implementation Chapter 6.0 Shareholder, customer, team Implementation Monitoring, Feedback monitoring feedback from operation to planning, construction update and assessment of RAMS data Monitoring, Feedback Maintenance database Chapter 7.1, 7.3 Asset Manager. Team, supplier

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20 Development Construction (Prototype) (Test) Production Installation Operation Decommissioning Disposal Procurement (incl. Disposal) Operation, Maintenance, Non-availability see Procurement costs LCC

21 Cost category: material costs From EN the shown cost matrix is known. Basis: means of production. Cost categories Technical structure Component: A This view separates the life cycle phases and the categories in two dimensions Life Cycle Phases Life Cycle Phase: Operation Cost element: Material cost of component A in the LCC phase operation

22 Cost matrix top level I. Procurement II. Operation III. Maintenance IV. Non Availability I.1 Preparation - one-time I.2 Preparation recurrent project-specific II.1 Service II.1.2 Energy III.1 Inspection and service (track) III.2 Maintenance preventive IV.1 Planned IV.1.1 Malfunctions IV.1.2 Delays IV.1.3 Serviceability I.3 Investment I.4 Imputed residual value I.5 Decommissioning / retraction / sale / removal (tasks) III.4 Maintenance - corrective III.7 Design and system support IV.2 Unplanned IV.2.1 Malfunctions IV.2.2 Delays IV.2.3 Serviceability I.6 Disposal / recycling I.10 Other costs II.10 Other costs III.10 Other costs IV.10 Other costs V.1 Energy consumption V.3 Delay V. Social Economics V.2 Environment V.10 Other costs

23 1 1 C 2 C (1+i) 2 6 (1+i) 6 Purchase costs... Reference: Delivery year Current costs from 1. year 2. year 3. year 4. year 5. year 6. year

24 1 C 2 (1+i) 2 1 C 6 (1+i) 6 NPV e.q.: i=1,08/1,02-1 Current costs in 1. year 2. year 3. year 4. year 5. year 6. year

25 BV 4.0 % DB 5.9 % For infrastructure NR 6.5 % ProRail 4.0 % Public investor 4.0 % Private investor 5.0 % ++ Depending on risk InnoTrack 4-5 % For comparison

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27 Public DB NR Private

28 RV TLT TH TH = VAsset = VAsset 1 TLT TLT RV VAsset 5 1

29 Calculatory residual value Calculatory residual value respectively disposal Normalisation of period of time for analysis Financial return (e.g. scrap return) or costs for disposal A t 0 t 40 t TLT B t 0 t 40 t TLT TLT Technical lifetime Disposal costs

30 to clarify Inside of the LCC calculation In/Out-frame Outside of calc. I. Procurement II. Operation III. Maintenance IV. Non Availability I.1 Preparation - one-time I.2 Preparation recurrent project-specific II.1 Service II.1.2 Energy III.1 Inspection and service (track) III.2 Maintenance preventive IV.1 Planned IV.1.1 Malfunctions IV.1.2 Delays IV.1.3 Serviceability I.3 Investment I.4 Imputed residual value I.5 Decommissioning / retraction / sale / removal (tasks) III.4 Maintenance - corrective III.7 Design and system support IV.2 Unplanned IV.2.1 Malfunctions IV.2.2 Delays IV.2.3 Serviceability I.6 Disposal / recycling I.10 Other costs II.10 Other costs III.10 Other costs IV.10 Other costs V. Social Economics V.1Energy consumption V.3 Delay V.2 Environment V.10 Other costs

31 Parameter Technical Parameter 1 Technical Parameter 2 Reference case Innovation A Technical Parameter 3 Technical Parameter Technical Parameter n Remarks Nom. discount rate: % Mean inflation rate: % Effective rate: % Time horizon years: The nominal discount rate should based on asset life The inflation rate should be estimated from the last years Cost block Investment Operation Maintenance Activity A Maintenance Activity B Maintenance Activity C Data structure Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Reference case Innovation A

32 Tender procedure & placing Developing a LCC-contract Monitoring / Verification Formulating of recommenda tion Determination of LCC-data Making a decision End Processing of data Ensuring the circuit of knowledge Establishing the basics Conceptual formulation Start

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34 Influence on LCC 1 High Investment -material Life time Long-term behaviour Investment -installation Quality Time to market Maintenance Low 0 0 Development, manufacturing installation Operation

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39 Conceptual probability distribution Cumulative probability distribution Innovation Reference

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41 Concept System Definition Project Definition Risk Analysis System Requirements 5 Apportionment of System system Requirements requirements Design & Implementation Verification and Validation 6 7 Manufacturing 10 System Integration & Acceptance System Validation Installation Operation & Maintenance Project Test and Integration Performance Monitoring Modification & Retrofit Decommissioning & Disposal

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48 Control loop of Reliability Management: Definition of the targets Description of object Definition of event Description of environment Modelling Allocation of data, Quality of data Amount Homogeneity Plausibility Consistency Analysis, Prediction and Optimisation Documentation History Impact on product & process Results and Verification

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51 Definition of specifications regarding operation and maintenance quality Description of quality specifications through RAMS values Technical specifications R A M S Reliability Availability Maintainability Safety Operation & Maintenance Procurement Operation Maintenance Non-Availability LCC Definition of specifications regarding total life cycle costs Economical specifications Cost / Benefit

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53 4. RAMS and LCC Analysis

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58 Conceptual phase 1. Concept 2.System definition 4.System Requirements Engineering phase 5. Apportionment Project Y / N Client System Requirements Requirements Specification Specification 6.Design & Implementation Specifications for contract Detailled design Realisation phase 7.Manufacturing 11. Operation & Maintenance 10. System12. Performance monitoring Integration 13. Modification & retrofit & Accep- disposal 14. Decommissioning & 9. Systemtance Validation 8.Installation Time Operational phase

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60 Reliability Availability Maintainability Safety MTBF, Mean Time Between Failure for corrective maintenance MTBM, Mean Time Between Maintenance for preventive maintenance MTBCF, Mean Time Between Critical Failure Train delay hours PPM, Passenger Performance Measure MTTR or MART, Mean Time to Repair or Mean Active Repair Time MTTM, Mean Time to Maintain Hazard Rate Number of derailment due to asset Number of accidents MTBSAF, Mean Time Between Service Affecting Failure MDT, Mean Down Time

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62 α T MTBF = λ αλ Χ

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64 Analyse 1 Investigation 2A Varianten Study 2B Preferred Variant Study 3 Realisation RA M S question RAMS LCC input New Infra output phase 1 / 2A / 2B / 3 RAMS / LCC method Social Cost and Benefit analyses RAMS / LCC spec Example of degree of detail Faster from A B Tunnel or bridge Concrete or steel Galvanizing or paint

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76 o o o o o o o o o 1 Costs of Corrective Maintenance as part of the life cycle costs relate not only to the disruptions caused by timetable affecting errors, but also to the errors that do not directly affect the train service.

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79 o Social Cost and Benefit Analysis R LCC M A S + Cost for unavailability + # trains # passengers Value of Time Shorter journey.. SCBA others Function Σ ( )

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85 5. General analytic methods and tools

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93 2 The list of tools shows only a small extract of possible tools

94 Product Tree 1 TRACK 1.1 Rail UIC Rail Pad ZW Sleeper B 70 W 1.4 Under Sleeper Pad 1.5 Ballast 1.6 Subsoil Product Tree Cost Breakdown Structure Cost Breakdown Structure 1 LCC 1.1 INVESTMENT Investment (Renewal) Ballast Sleeper incl. Fastening/ Freight USP/ UBP Rail incl. Freight Substructure Measure Installation Rail Renewal Disposal Residual Value Recycling 1.2 MAINTENANCE Inspection Vehicle Visual Inspection Day-To-Day Track Maintenance Ballast Tamping Rail Grinding Control of the Vegetation Change ZW/ZWP 1.3 NON-AVAILABILITY Planned Day-To-Day Track Maintenance Ballast Tamping Rail Grinding Rail Relying Track Stoppage Reinvestment Not-Planned Track Stoppage Speed Restriction

95 6. Compilation of results

96 7. Operational Phase and Implementation

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101 Asset management Innovations Actual & further requirements Standards Investment Organisation Maintenance strategies Assessment and risk management Asset Management Innovation management and implementation Optimisation Track/network Specifications and strategies Planning Construction Maintenance Asset Service Fault management Rebuilding Technical & economical data Documentation data

102 Annex I Examples

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104 Timetable affecting errors Performance level crossing: timetable affecting errors function repair time [hour] Number of errors Average function repair time [hour] Average number of errors Error caused by technique 7, ,258 0,200 Error caused by third parties 30, ,503 0,667 Error caused by wheather 7, ,633 0,067 Non-timetable affecting errors Performance level crossing: non-timetable affecting errors function repair time [hour] Number of errors Average function repair time [hour] Average number of errors Non-timetable affecting errors 731, ,849 4,167 For underpasses in comparable situations (12 found) no timetable affecting errors are registered in the last 3 years. For non-timetable affecting errors no reliable data was found. Based on every hour four passenger trains and one freight train per direction this leads to delay and cancellation of trains. Knowing it is not correct we simplified the model by assuming for this study that a timetable affecting error only leads to cancellation of trains. Performance data All Level Comparable crossings Comparable Level crossing average Tunnel Netherlands Number of hours not available (due to errors) Number of cancelled passenger trains Number of delayed freight trains Safety: Like performance also safety on a level crossing near a station has its own specific key figures. We searched for safety figures for comparable level crossings, see next table: Safety data Deaths / year Seriously injured / year Slightly injured / year Level crossing 0,044 0,022 0,00 Underpass Cost data: For the two variants the cost data is shown in the next table: Cost data Level crossing Tunnel Comment Total Investment (including station and perron) Investment (excluding station and perron) Social costs for train free period during realization phase Figures can vary per Infra Manager

105 Cost data Level crossing Tunnel Comment 1 period of 29 hours in weekend period of 52 hours in weekend Preventive maintenance cost per year Periodic replacements level crossing Roaddeck (40 year) Replace track (20 year) Half barrier (25 year, 6 pcs) Barrier motor (15 year, 6 pcs) Maintain track (15 year) Maintenance tunnel Small maintenance (1 year) Large inspection (10 year) Painting (15 year) Large construction repairs (40 year) Social cost for road transport Cost for safety: Deaths Seriously injured Slightly injured Economic value of delayed freight train per hour Cost for repair in case of errors Cost for cancelled train on track Eindhoven Weert: Week days: based on 263 passengers per train Weekend days: based on 124 passengers per train Figures can vary per Infra Manager Figures can vary per Infra Manager Based on the performance, safety and cost data it is possible to make a complete RAMS / LCC analyses using the methodology shown in this guideline. LCC: Next table shows the LCC costs using Net Present Value (interest + inflation = 4 %),: LCC Level crossing Tunnel Net Present Value 30 year Net Present Value 50 year Net Present Value 100 year Including all the social cost benefits the total costs during the lifetime using Net Present Value (interest + inflation = 4 %) are: LCC + social cost benefits Level crossing Tunnel Net Present Value 30 year Net Present Value 50 year Net Present Value 100 year So based on all these data the decision for a variant can be made. But be aware that RAMS / LCC is not the only parameter the project managers uses to choose for a variant!

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107 Technical optimisation Process optimisation Steel grades R260 R350 HT R370Cr HT R400 HT Rail type S54 UIC60 UIC70 plus Important boundary conditions Maintenance strategy Corrective Predictive Grinding / milling machine Possession time Metal removal Undergrinding of head checks Probability density functions Crack growth Wear

108 Wear and RCF values based on field tests Head-Check -Grinding specs -Service life time Technical parameters -limit values -wear -undergrinding of HC Load Boundary conditions Wear (vertical) Load LCC Model -Track category -Rail type -Steel grade -Radius class -Actual Load [MGT/a] wear (side) Load Process parameters -Type of grinding machine -Maintenance strategy -Metal removal -Possession time NPV of R260 vs. R350HT dep. on Load NPV [ /Tm] R260 R350HT Load [MGT]

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110 In/Out-frame Standard rail grade vs. hard rail grade to clarify Inside of the LCC calculation In/Out-frame Regulations of each country R 260 and R350HT Cost for investment and non-availability Same grinding performance for HT grade Interactions with other SPs Grinding Wear and RCF Maintenance fault clearance Corrective maintenance Service life of the rails Variable load of track Outside of calculation Mixed traffic Radius m MGT/a welding quality and costs Load dependent maintenance costs Same grinding performance for HT grade? Reference to test sites and experiments Used cost elements I. Procurement II. Operation III. Maintenance IV. Non Availability I.1 Preparation - one-time I.2 Preparation recurrent project-specific II.1 Service II.1.2 Energy III.1 Inspection and service (track) III.2 Maintenance preventive IV.1 Planned IV.1.1 Malfunctions IV.1.2 Delays IV.1.3 Serviceability I.3 Investment I.4 Imputed residual value I.5 Decommissioning / retraction / sale / removal (tasks) III.4 Maintenance - corrective III.7 Design and system support IV.2 Unplanned IV.2.1 Malfunctions IV.2.2 Delays IV.2.3 Serviceability I.6 Disposal / recycling I.10 Other costs II.10 Other costs III.10 Other costs IV.10 Other costs V. Social Economics V.1Energy consumption V.3 Delay V.2 Environment V.10 Other costs

111 Parameter Service life (R m) Wear rates LCC - standard rail grade vs. hard rail grade Reference case R260 (standard rail grade) 20 years for 30 MGT/a w 1 : 0,3 mm/100 MGT, w 3 : 0,7 mm/100 MGT Innovation R350 HT (hard rail grade) 40 years for 30 MGT/a w 1 : 0,2 mm/100 MGT, w 3 : 0,4 mm(100 MGT RCF rate / Head-Check Grinding interval for 0,8 mm metal removal Rail renewal Remark: RCF measurements at DB 0,75 mm/100 MGT 2 [a] 30 MGT/a Load dependent, at least 1 during 40 years 0,30 mm/100 MGT 6 [a] 30 MGT/a Load dependent Discount rate: 8 % Inflation rate: 2 % Effective rate : 5.8 % LCC - standard rail grade vs. hard rail grade Cost block Investment xxx /Tm *) load dependent, nom. 20 year Procurement Experts / Analysis Euro Operation Cycle Source N/a N/a Quality Maintenance Rail renewal Maintenance Rail grinding Non-Availability Data structure Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Euro Cycle Source Quality Reference case R260 (standard rail grade) xxx /Tm load dependent, nom. 20 year IM Experts / Analysis x-xx /m per shift load-, radius dependent, 1 year RIM Experts / Analysis Track Category dependent load dependent IM Analysis Innovation R350 HT (hard rail grade) xxx /Tm load dependent, nom. 40 year Procurement Experts / Analysis 1xxx /Tm load dependent, nom. 40 year IM Estimation / Experts / Analysis x-xx /m per shift load-, radius dependent, 3 year IM Experts / Analysis Track Category dependent load dependent IM Analysis *) Tm = Track meter

112 Annex II Questions per project phase per RAMS / LCC analysis Questions 1 Investigation 2A Variants study 2B Preferred alternative 3 Implementation RA What change in reliability and availability of the train routes can (as a consequence of infrastructural changes) be expected if the function change is implemented? What change in RA performance is expected for the different variants, in relation to the existing situation? What change in RA performance is expected for the different options of the preferred variant in relation to the current situation? What change in RA performance is expected for the chosen technical solution in relation to the existing situation? M What change in maintenance work (hours, money) is expected when the change is implemented in relation to the current situation? What change in maintenance work (hours, money) is expected from the different variants in relation to the current situation? What change in maintenance work (hours, money) is expected for the different options of the preferred variant in relation to the existing situation? What change in maintenance work (hours, money) is expected after implementation in relation to the existing situation? S What change in the safety of the railway system can be expected if the intended function change is implemented? What change in the safety of the rail system is expected from the different variants in relation to the existing situation? What change in the safety of the railway system is expected for the different options of the preferred variant in relation to the existing situation? What change in the safety of the railway system is expected for the selected technical solution in relation to the existing situation? LCC What change in life cycle costs is associated with the implementation of the function change? What life cycle costs are associated with the different variants? What life cycle costs are associated with the different options? What life cycle costs are expected after implementation? RAMS / LCC What reliability, availability and safety can be achieved at what life cycle costs? What level of reliability, availability and safety can be achieved per variant at what life cycle costs? What option has the highest level of reliability, availability and safety at the lowest life cycle costs? What technical solution provides the highest level of reliability, availability and safety at the lowest life cycle costs?

113 Social cost benefit analysis What expected costs and benefits relate to the function change? What expected costs and benefits relate to every variant? What expected costs and benefits relate to every option? What costs and benefits are expected after the implementation? RAMS / LCC specification What RAMS requirements can we specify, and at what maximum life costs should it be possible to implement the function change? What RAMS requirements can we specify and at what maximum life cycle costs should it be possible to implement the infra change? What RAMS requirements can we specify and at what maximum life cycle costs should it be possible to achieve the infra change? What RAMS performance is expected in the operational phase and what are the maximum life cycle costs for the selected technical solution?

114 Annex III References

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