BENEFITS OF THE RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH: PERSPECTIVES FROM A FOOD INDUSTRY DR MARK CHAMBERLAIN

Transcription

1 BENEFITS OF THE RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH: PERSPECTIVES FROM A FOOD INDUSTRY DR MARK CHAMBERLAIN Head of Risk Analysis Group Safety and Environmental Assurance Centre Unilever Colworth Sharnbrook Bedfordshire United Kingdom

2 UNILEVER BUSINESS Foods, and Home and Personal Care 265,000 employees world wide Brands on sale in 151 countries Consumers choose our products 150 million times every day $50bn annual turnover

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4 WHAT IS SEAC Independent Corporate group responsible for: assuring consumer safety assuring environmental safety advising on safe handling in factories Reporting to the highest level of the organisation Dedicated to its role Incident management >10,000 requests annually for pre-market safety approvals 40 years of experience and expert knowledge

5 RISK ANALYSIS 3 COMPONENTS: Risk Assessment Risk Management Risk Communication

6 KEY IMPROVEMENTS Transparency Include stakeholder issues

7 PAST CONCEPT OF RISK ANALYSIS Risk Risk Risk Assessment Management Communication focus on hazard linear process unique stages stages province of difference experts

8 EXPERTS AND RISK ANALYSIS Risk Assessment: The world of Scientists Hazards (toxic chemicals, food poisoning micro-organisms, explosions) Exposures (measurements, worst case assumptions, probabilistic modelling) Likelihood of adverse events (probabilities)

9 EXPERTS AND RISK ANALYSIS Risk Management The world of policy makers and managers (decision makers) what decisions are to be made accepting transferring reducing trade-offs constraints avoiding

10 EXPERTS AND RISK ANALYSIS Risk Communication The world of the spokesperson and the media (who deal with Issues ) informing people about hazards and risk informing (telling) them what they should do avoiding unnecessary alarm

11 THE THREE DOMAINS OF RISK DEBATES ISSUES values and ethics concerns and perceptions effect on me fairness emotions SCIENCE scientific facts numbers and probabilities effect on populations scientific rules DECISIONS trade-offs money politics

12 WHO SITS WHERE IN THE THREE DOMAINS ISSUES public consumers citizens NGO s public relations media SCIENCE academic scientists government scientists industry scientists DECISIONS business decision-makers governments regulators

13 TECHNOCRATIC VIEW OF RISK COMMUNICATION SCIENCE DECISIONS COMMUNICATION TO AUDIENCES Risk Risk Risk Assessment Management Communication One-way communication: scientists explain to everyone else

14 CHALLENGES TO THE TECHNOCRATIC APPROACH Risk assessment increasingly scientific and quantitative Risk become increasingly controversial (particularly in Europe) Questions about who benefits, who takes the risks, who checks that safety is observed Challenges have come from the public, pressure groups, political players

15 ATTRIBUTES OF RECENT RISK DEBATES Some players use science-only based arguments (usually industry and/or government) Other players challenge the science suggesting alternative interpretations (often campaigning organisations) Many non-scientific issues are raised (by other stakeholders) So science is not enough

16 CHANGING VIEW OF RISK COMMUNICATION: STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT 1986 Slovic. P. Informing and educating people about risk 1989 US National Research Council Improving Risk Communication 1993 Sandman.P.M. Responding to community outrage:strategies for effective risk communication

17 RISK AND OUTRAGE Acceptability = f n Technical, Level of of risk risk outrage Technical risk stands for all the scientific/technical assessment of risk Outrage stands for all the broader issues that people get concerned or angry about (Adapted from Sandman P.M Responding to Community outrage: strategies for effective risk communication, American Industrial Hygiene Association)

18 MOVING TO A STAKEHOLDER APPROACH Stakeholders are to be engaged with, not just audiences to receive communication Science has to be communicated more effectively Listening to broader concerns All parties prepared to change their position in light of what others say

19 ENGAGING WITH STAKEHOLDERS Build trust through open and honest communication: tailor the message demonstrate empathy be responsive demonstrate credibility articulate the benefits of proposed and alternative options do not hide uncertainties banish no-risk messages

20 TWO-WAY COMMUNICATION: ANTICIPATING AND INTERACTING UNDERSTANDING STAKEHOLDER ISSUES EXPLAIN HERE EXPLAIN HERE SCIENCE OPTIONS AND DECISIONS COMMUNICATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS LISTEN LISTEN ISSUES

21 IMPROVING RISK ANALYSIS Combining subjective information with scientific data using structured approaches Decision Analysis Bayesian Belief Networks

22 DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS Framing and structuring tools Evaluation tools Problem definition Decision hierarchy Probability assessment Decision trees Stakeholder analysis Strategy table Monte Carlo Sensitivity to probability Issue raising Scenario analysis Deterministic sensitivity Probability distributions Influence diagram Fright factors Value of Information Value of Control

23 BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS Representing variability and uncertainty in a simple model of microbial growth (G. Barker, 2002) a0 T0 t p_ C Alpha q lamda Uq LogNc No a T qmoments Ntest Nplus c LogNt

24 TAKE CONTROL (BECEL/FLORA pro.active) Phytosterol esters in spreads Reduced serum cholesterol Initial safety prognosis good Unfamiliar issues Unilever s first functional food Novel food in Europe, Australia and New Zealand new legislation, first non-gm application

25 KEY OPINION FORMER COMMUNICATIONS 60 key opinion formers 25 countries Discussed safety programme Received concerns Constructed agreed work programme Feedback and further dialogue

26 TAKE CONTROL (BECEL/FLORA pro.active) Products launched from 1999 USA, Europe, Switzerland, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Czech Republic, Poland, Cyprus, South Africa, Japan Consumer post launch monitoring established via customer care-lines Continuing dialogues with key opinion formers

27 LEARNINGS Importance of face-to-face meetings Requires a great deal of effort Prepare and train our people to engage in dialogue Listen to views/concerns and understand

28 LEARNINGS Others in society view our products and associated risks differently Demonstrate by our behaviour that we have listened understood taken seriously acted Feedback listen

29 BENEFITS FOR UNILEVER Understand stakeholders concerns Receive direct consumer feedback Allows time for consideration and action No surprises Facilitates partnership way-of-working Communicate better internally and externally

30 BENEFITS FOR UNILEVER Changes our views Helps formulate future developments Continuous improvements Reinforces our values

31 BENEFITS FOR STAKEHOLDERS Concerns are being listened to, considered and acted upon Being taken seriously Communication channels are clearer Feel that they can influence positively now and future developments Increased transparency of decisions

32 RISK ANALYSIS - SUMMING UP Provides a framework for considering scientific data as well as policy and societal values pertinent to risk management decisions: Structured and inclusive to communicate clearly how the issues have been addressed

33 RISK ANALYSIS - SUMMING UP Transparent to display the reasoning for the decision Builds trust via open and honest communication

34 OUTCOME Transparent risk analysis adds value by incorporating stakeholder issues and increases the acceptability of risk management decisions

35 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Harriet Wallace Linda Lea Jon Arthur Paul Hepburn Leon Gorris Andrea Dickens Sven Roden Bart Sangster