Gas Networks Ireland NDM Profile Model Methodology. Version nd August 2016

Transcription

1 Gas Networks Ireland NDM Profile Model Methodology Version nd August 2016

2 1. Introduction a. This paper sets out the methodology used by Gas Networks Ireland (GNI) to prepare NDM Profiles. 2. Background a. A supplier considering entering a particular sector of the NDM market is able to obtain three items of information from the GPRO in respect of individual customers that had authorised the release of such information: Annual Quantity (AQ) Two (2) years of actual metered consumption Supply Point Capacity (SPC) b. The CER has requested that GNI should in addition be required to provide typical profiles for various defined customer groups. Such profiles would describe the likely average monthly consumption within the customer group, given particular assumptions as to long run weather patterns. c. GNI has developed profiles for four NDM customer groups namely: Residential customers (regardless of size) SME1 (NDM business customers below 73,000kWh AQ) SME2 (NDM business customers equal to and above 73,000kWh AQ but not eligible for the FVT) SME 3 (FVT-eligible NDM customers, namely NDM customers with a Supply Point Capacity of greater than or equal to 3,750 kwh) 2

3 3. Methodology a. The GNI model contains NDM Customer Profiles (% by month by category of customer defined by Annual Quantity settings for the current gas year 15/16) b. A data download extract was taken from the FAR database on 1 st of August c. The list generated included all active gas points (i.e. with a registered Shipper on that date approx. 677,000 gas points). d. The gas points were then broken down into four (4) different categories based on their respective Annual Quantities (AQ) and in the case of the Fuel Variation Tariff (FVT) their Supply Point Capacity (SPC), as defined by the Transporter for the current gas year 15/16, and also whether Domestic or Industrial & Commercial customers were registered at the respective gas points: RES (AQ >= 0 kwh) SME 1 (AQ < 73,000 kwh) SME 2 (AQ >= 73,000 kwh and SPC < 3,750 kwh) SME 3 (SPC >= 3,750 kwh) e. The breakdown of gas points by category were as follows: RES 651,100 SME1 15,850 SME2 8,250 SME3 1,800 3

4 f. For each category, the A and B factors 1 that existed on the 1 st of August 2016 were identified and summed (by category) giving a total category A factor and B factor. g. These category sums were then applied to daily normalised Degree Day data, day of week factors and scaling factors where applicable for each day during the gas year 14/15 (the last full gas year). h. It should also be noted that the actual A and B Factors that existed on the 1 st of August take into account all known information on that date. There may be a difference between the actual historical demand and that derived from the average A and B Factors i. When preparing the model a total consumption (kwh) per category was estimated and these figures were subsequently divided by the number of gas points per category (as per the model) to give an average consumption (kwh) per gas point per category, the results of which are presented below: RES 10,988 kwh SME1 27,223 kwh SME2 186,670 kwh SME3 1,342,383 kwh 1 See FAR Procedures in the Code of Operations 4

5 4. Profiles 5

6 5. Disclaimer a. This graph and data (the Information ) have been produced for the purpose of providing a general overview of the profile of annual gas allocations to NDM customers using data generated in accordance with the Forecasting, Allocation and Reconciliation Procedures ( FAR ). b. It is the responsibility of individual suppliers to judge the appropriate quantity and timing of hedging purchases for their NDM gas customers. c. The average consumption for customer for newly connected sites in each group may differ from that of the group as a whole. Suppliers therefore need to exercise judgement in cases where historic consumption data is not available. d. GNI does not accept any liability for the accuracy of the Information and, in particular, neither Gaslink or any of its directors or employees shall be liable (including liability by reason of negligence) for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on the Information and whether caused by reason of any error, negligent act, omission or misrepresentation in the Information or otherwise. e. While GNI has taken all reasonable steps to ensure the accuracy of all the Information on the date of publication, Gaslink cannot accept responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from any inadvertent errors or omissions appearing in the Information and any person using the Information does so entirely at their own risk. f. GNI reserves the right to modify, alter, delete and update the Information annually in advance of the Gas Year. 6

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