@JEMBEN HOW FORGOTTEN KNOWLEDGE WILL HELP YOU AVOID REGRETTABLE DECISION

Transcription

1 @JEMBEN HOW FORGOTTEN KNOWLEDGE WILL HELP YOU AVOID REGRETTABLE DECISION

2 Regret a decision! Or Scared to be wrong?

3 Optimistic biased decision! OUR LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION? IT WILL TURN OUT FINE AIR WATER TECHNICALLY THE GLASS IS ALWAYS FULL

4 "Remarriage is the triumph of Hope over Experience" SAMUEL JOHNSON

5 OPTIMISM BIAS FACTORS Desired end State Me versus the others Cognitive mechanism Overall mood

6 The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift. - ALBERT EINSTEIN

7 Which technology is the best to invest now?

8 "THE NUMBER OF TRANSISTORS ON INTEGRATED CIRCUITS DOUBLES APPROXIMATELY EVERY TWO YEARS" INTEL CORP MOORE S LAW

9 LAW OF DISRUPTION EXPONENTIAL VS NATURAL GROWTH

10 TECHNOLOGY CAPACITY VS INTEGRATION COMPLEXITY EROOM S LAW MOORE S LAW NUMBER OF DRUGS PER BILLION $ SPENT IN R&D

11 Which technology is the best to invest now? INFORMATION SYSTEMS DOUBLES CAPACITY FOR THE SAME PRICE EVERY TWO YEARS" "How long do we want to maintain the product using this technology? "

12 How much Could I Outsource?

13 THE COMMUNICATION EFFICIENCY DECREASE EXPONENTIALLY WITH THE PHYSICAL DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PERSONS OPEN SPACE ALLEN S CURVE

14 COMMUNICATION EFFICIENCY VS PERCEIVED DISTANCE WEEKLY INTERACTION DISTANCE

15 THE DISTRIBUTION TRADE-OFF OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT USING IN HOUSE MANAGEMENT

16 How much Could I Outsource? THE COMMUNICATION EFFICIENCY DECREASE EXPONENTIALLY WITH THE PHYSICAL DISTANCE BETWEEN THE PERSONS. How much effort are you ready to dedicate to make outsourcing work?

17 How long do you need to get this done?

18 "WORK EXPANDS SO AS TO FILL THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR ITS COMPLETION" THE PURSUIT OF PROGRESS PARKINSON S LAW

19 VOID AS A SEPARABLE DISTANCE

20 Horror Vacui

21 This is important, but you have a month to finish it I will start right away TIME MANAGEMENT BIASES STUDENT SYNDROME

22 Smarter to wait until the last minute! Just make a big show of how hard you are working to meet the unreasonable deadline.

23 THE TIME-BOX EFFECT

24 How long do you need to get this done? "WORK EXPANDS SO AS TO FILL THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR ITS COMPLETION" Do you have any time constrain? What is your deadline?

25 Tell me when I could expect to get this done as well?

26 THE LEAD TIME IS PROPORTIONAL TO THE NUMBER OF ITEMS IN THE SYSTEM AND THEIR TIME IN THE SYSTEM QUEUING THEORY LITTLE S LAW

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30 EXPEDITE COST Ready Done Expedite Cost = Delay cycle time

31 Tell me when I could expect to get this done as well? THE LEAD TIME IS PROPORTIONAL TO THE NUMBER OF ITEMS IN THE SYSTEM AND THEIR TIME IN THE SYSTEM. How urgent is it compare to what is currently in progress?

32 How complete are you? How far along are you?

33 "THERE IS NEVER ENOUGH TIME TO DO IT RIGHT, BUT THERE IS ALWAYS ENOUGH TIME TO DO IT OVER. " PARETO PRINCIPLE MESKIMEN S LAW

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35 COMPLAINTS PER PRODUCT CUMULATIVE %

36 Perfect is the enemy of good DONE IS BETTER THAN PERFECT - FRANCOIS VOLTAIRE

37 AGILE FLUENCY FOCUS ON VALUE

38 How complete are you? How far along are you? "THERE IS NEVER ENOUGH TIME TO DO IT RIGHT, BUT THERE IS ALWAYS ENOUGH TIME TO DO IT OVER. " Could you help me clarify what we consider complete?

39 How many people do you need to get this Done?

40 How many people do you need to get this Done? Faster!

41 "ADDING MANPOWER TO A LATE SOFTWARE PROJECT MAKES IT LATER" THE MYTHICAL MAN MONTH BROOK S LAW

42 KNOWLEDGE WORKER THE HUMAN VARIATION AND COLLABORATION COMPLEXITY A JOB THAT ONE PERSON CAN COMPLETE IN 10 DAYS NUMBER OF TEAM MEMBERS

43 Does our intuition fail us?

44 How many people do you need to get this Done Faster? "ADDING MANPOWER TO A LATE SOFTWARE PROJECT MAKES IT LATER" What are you ready to trade off, scope?

45 How could you improve our customer experience?

46 "ORGANISATIONS ARE CONSTRAINED TO PRODUCE DESIGNS WHICH ARE COPIES OF THEIR COMMUNICATION STRUCTURES" MODULAR PROGRAMMING CONWAY S LAW

47 SOCIAL ORGANISATION COMMUNICATION STRUCTURES

48 Scaling and UX challenges EVERYONE IS SCALING WHY NOT ME?

49 How could you improve our customer experience? "ORGANISATIONS ARE CONSTRAINED TO PRODUCE DESIGNS WHICH ARE COPIES OF THEIR COMMUNICATION STRUCTURES" "How could we remove some Organisation silos to work better together?"

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51 WHEN YOU MAKE A DECISION MAKE SURE YOU ARE GROUNDED GRAVITY It s not only a good idea. It s a Law

52 SELECTIVE LEARNING WHAT APPLIES TO ME FIRST!

53 if i have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of giants -ISAAC NEWTON

54 MOORE S LAW PA R K I N S O N S L A W ALLEN S CURVE LITTLE S LAW BROOK S LAW MESKIMEN S LAW C O N W AY S L A W