Il'yashenko S. M., the doctor of economic sciences, the professor, the head of marketing department, SSU

Transcription

1 The defnton of a necessary and suffcent nformaton accumulaton level to substantate a choce of enterprse s market opportuntes drectons development Il'yashenko S. M., the doctor of economc scences, the professor, the head of marketng department, SSU The basc rules of the theory-methodcal approaches to defnton of a necessary and suffcent nformaton accumulaton level for marketng decsons on a substantaton of the enterprse s market opportuntes development projects effectve acceptance are set forth. The acceptance of the ratonal decsons by an estmaton and choce of the projects of enterprse s market opportuntes development demands the approprate nformaton base s presence, whch s necessary to reduce a degree of uncertanty and rsk, caused by t, and to ncrease the accepted decsons valdty. But ncrease of persons knowledge level s connected to sgnfcant expenses of the addtonal nformaton s obtanng whch can exceed possble benefts from more exact decsons substantaton. Therefore, to determne the quantty of the nformaton whch s really necessary to accept the substantated decson, t s necessary to compare margnal benefts to expected expenses on ts obtanng. The queston of market researches nformaton mantenance drected on a search and a choce of market opportuntes drectons development, demands a sgnfcant attenton to be pad. There are many publcatons devoted to ths problem, among them t s necessary to underlne the mportance of [1, 2]. The analyss shows that the problems of nformaton base s for varants of development choce formaton are urgent, the exstng publcatons consder the dfferent parts of these problems. But questons of an economc substantaton of a necessary and suffcent level of nformaton accumulaton (ts volumes and knds) are not covered suffcently, that does not allow to optmze procedure of a choce of varants of development

2 of the concrete enterprses whch are n adequate stuatons n the market, results n the mstaken decsons wth all the consequences followng. In vew of stated, the purpose of the gven research s the development of the theorymethodcal approaches to defnton of a necessary and suffcent level of accumulaton of the nformaton for acceptance of the proved marketng decsons at the choce of drectons of development of enterprse s market opportuntes. At frst we shall determne, that the margnal quantty (Qm) and margnal prce (Pm) of the necessary nformaton s determned by a pont n whch the expected margnal beneft curve (Bm) crosses the expected expenses (Ex), connected wth ts recepton (fg. 1) [3]. If the expected beneft of the nformaton purchase exceeds expected margnal expenses (BEx), such nformaton wll be necessary for gettng. If on the contrary (В < Ex), t s necessary to refuse the nformaton purchase, as the expected meanng of result n condtons of uncertanty n ths case wll be hgher, than n condtons of certanty. Purchases and losses Bm Ex Pm Area of purchases Area of the losses Fg. 1 Defnton of the necessary nformaton optmum volume Accordng to [4] the lmtng cost of the complete nformaton s determned as a dfference between the expected results of the certan event or decson, expressed n the cost form, whch s executed or accepted n condtons of complete knowledge (Rc) and expected results of the same event or decson n condtons of uncomplete knowledge (Ru). Qm Quantty of the nformaton

3 C lm Rc - Ru (1) If the nformaton costs are more then Вm, ts purchase, even at the absolutely exact forecast, wll reduce the sze of result, for example, proft, whch receve n condtons of certanty, n comparson wth proft, whch receve n condtons of uncertanty. In ths case, purchase of addtonal nformaton s rratonally. But there are also other aspects of search of the necessary nformaton. It s possble to collect the nformaton, whch wll not contan the really necessary data. In ths case there wll be a large error of search of the nformaton and accordng to low effcency of search. In other words, the expenses for search of the nformaton wll be not effcent. The effcency of search of the nformaton can be apprecated wth the help of parameters of an error of search and completeness of search, whch calculate under the followng formulas. П К р пг 1, (2) Ко К р Ппл, (3) К рм where Ппг - error of search; Ппл - completeness of search; Кр - volume gven of the relevant nformaton; To - general volume of the gven nformaton; Крм - volume of the relevant nformaton n ts general set. The szes Кр, Ко, Крм can be measured by quantty of the documents or n standard unts, whch are accepted for measurement of quantty of the nformaton Byte, lobyte, Mbyte, Gbyte and т. д. In a fg. 2 [5] szes Ппг, Ппл are submtted as atttude of crossng area to each of two allocated areas. Accordng to the formulas (2-3), the effcency of search of the nformaton the above, than completeness of search and s less an error of search. In other words, the areas, allocated

4 wth crcles n a fg. 2, n an deal should be mposed one on one, but practcally s not achevable. It s necessary to establsh boundary meanng of completeness of search and error of search (these parameters, as t follows from the formulas 2-3, are n back proportonal dependence - ncrease one conducts to reducton another), as the ncrease of completeness of search results n ncrease of cost of the nformaton. That s such meanng of completeness of search s necessary to fnd whch wll be acceptable wth the pont of vew of person, whch makes a decson, but at the same tme expenses but ts achevement should not exceed the certan sze. As follows from a fg. 1, the nformaton should be accumulated so long as the expenses on ts purchase less or are equal to expected boundary benefts from possesson by t. And, such estmatons should be carred out before realzaton of search of the nformaton, because the estmaton should carry the character of the forecast. But on the moment of a begnnng of the tax of the nformaton such forecast to make very dffcultly, because too hgh level of uncertanty. Fle of the nformaton The relevant nformaton (К рм ) Expenses The excessve nformaton Gven nformaton (К о ) The gven relevant nformaton К р Fg. 2 The crcut of the nformaton search error occurrence As a frst approxmaton dependence between sze of expenses for purchase of the addtonal nformaton and completeness of ts accumulaton, whch s determned n factor Ппл, (3), can be expressed by the followng dfferental equaton:

5 dbm Вт Вта Ппл, (4) dп пл where a - factor of proportonalty. For the decson of ths equaton we shall transform t to the followng knd. dbm Bm 1 а П пл ) dп. (5) ( пл The solvng of the equaton (5). ln Bm П пл а П 2 2 пл ln C 1, or after transformatons Bm ап 2 пл П 2 пл С е. (6) 1 The marks of the module are lowered, as the szes accept only postve meanngs. The dependence between boundary benefts from use of the nformaton and ts accuracy, whch s determned n factor Ппг (2), can be expressed by the followng dfferental equaton: dв dп Вг В в. (7) пг П пг where в - factor of proportonalty. Havng executed transformatons of ths equaton s smlar to transformaton (4) n (5) and havng solved t rather Вг we have. Вг С е П 2. (8) в пг П пг

6 The meanngs of constant С1 and С2 can be receved f to substtute, accordngly, n (6) and (8) meanngs of known szes (for С1 t Вт and Ппл і, for С2 - Вг and Ппг і) and to solve these equatons rather Вт and Вг. С 1,. (9) е Вт ап 2 пл Ппл 2 С 2 в Вг Ппг. (10) Ппг е The meanngs of factors a and в can be receved by replacement of szes dвт, dп пл, dвг, dп пг on Вт, П пл, Вг, П пг and substtuton them n the equaton (5) and (7). Further acceptng П пл = 0,01 and П пг =0,01 and usng a method of the least squares, we dfferentate (5) on a and (7) on в. Solvng the receved equatons rather a and в shall fnd there meanngs. Optmum meanngs of szes Ппл and Ппг s determned from a condton. Вг-Вт max or С 2 П ап 2 пг пл е П 2 пл С 1 е в Ппг max. (11) Thus the restrctons should be observed. 0 П пг 1, 0 П пл 1, (12) Вт Вт гр, where Вт гр - lmtng sze of expenses, whch can be allowed by the enterprse on accumulaton of the nformaton for fllng nformaton base of nformaton system.

7 The sze Вт s determned under the formula (6). The meanngs Ппл and Ппг n the equatons (11) and (12) concretze by substtuton n them of known szes Кр, Ко, Крм (2-3). Optmum meanngs of szes Кo, Кр can be found at known meanng Крм, whch are possble are to determned as «area of the data and knowledge» about process, a subject or phenomenon wth whch s called to work nformaton system. Thus, s developed the basc rules of the theory-methodcal approach to defnton of a necessary level of accumulaton of the nformaton for acceptance of the proved decsons at the choce of drectons and varants of development of market opportuntes and the more so hardly to estmate the future results. But n practce t happens dffcultly to estmate possble benefts from recepton of the addtonal nformaton, because at a stage whch, precedes market researches, t s not yet clear for an estmaton of prospects of development of the enterprse, what wll be chosen varants of development of market opportuntes and the more so hardly to estmate the future results Also t s heavy to estmate expense for recepton of the nformaton. The dfferent stages and nvestgaton phases, wth the purpose of a substantaton of optmum varants of development, requre the nformaton of a dfferent knd and n dfferent volumes, use dfferent ways of ts recepton and analyss, whch dffer on terms of realzaton, completeness of search, cost of the nformaton etc. Further t s consdered features of nformaton mantenance on stages of process of an estmaton and choce of varants of development of the concrete enterprse n exstng condtons, wth the purpose of reducton of uncertanty at an estmaton of expenses on the tax and analyss of the nformaton, n vew of prospects of ther development further. The process of an estmaton of varants of development of market opportuntes follows [6] to consder on stages as system, whch conssts of the followng elements: phase of a concrete stage of acceptance of the decsons - purpose of each stage - nformaton, whch s used durng decson the tasks of stages - crterons of achevement of the purposes at each stage.

8 The gven system can be submtted as set Х, whch, n turn, s determned as the Cartesan product of ts makng sets Х : X X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4. (13) where Х1 - set of stages of process; Х2 - set of the purposes of stages; Х3 - set of the nformaton s knds; Х4 - set of estmated crterons. Each set characterzes homogeneous elements of system. Accordngly, for each of evaluaton stages of varants of development of market opportuntes there wll be a far followng party. X X 1 X 2 X 3X 4. (14) The set X X s determned by nterrelatons between the purposes X 2 X 2, knds of the nformaton X 3 X 3 and estmated crtera X 4 X 4 for stage to process. Set X 1 contans one element - stage of process of an estmaton of varants of development of market opportuntes. Fllng concrete sense X 1, X 2, X 3, X 4, for each of stages we shall receve dependences, whch unequvocally wll establsh the purposes of stages, knds of the nformaton, whch s used at realzaton of works of the approprate stages, crtera of an estmaton of effcency of these works. It wll allow to reduce a degree of uncertanty of volumes of the nformaton necessary for acceptance of the proved decsons durng a substantaton of the projects of development of the enterprse for stages, wll rase accuracy of forecastng of expenses on recepton of the nformaton. In a fg. 3 s submtted model of process of segmentaton, whch ncludes the followng structural elements: stages of process of segmentaton, knds of the nformaton, crterons, purpose of stages.

9 In a fg. 3 the coordnates of the purposes of stages of segmentaton are shown, and they because of a large sze of records are not submtted. The knds of the nformaton, whch are used at dfferent stages of process, are determned and also the sets of crtera are offered, on whch s conducted an estmaton of effcency of performance of works of stages of process. As crteron, accordngly after stages, the followng are determned: evaluaton stages of opportuntes of the enterprse level of proft, suffcency of resources, chances n a competton; stages of defnton of prncples and factors of segmentaton, constructon of economc-mathematcal models, tax and analyss of the nformaton - capacty, level of proft, tendency of growth of a segment; for last stage - all set of estmated crtera (fg. 3). As the general purposes of stages (they are subject to detaled elaboraton) the followng are allocated: an estmaton of opportuntes of the enterprse - to estmate suffcency of potental of the enterprse for realzaton of exstng market opportuntes determne what knds of producton t can to make; defnton of prncples and reasons of segmentaton - to reveal prncples, reason and change of the reasons. Smlarly follow to buld nformaton models of other stages of process of formaton of the target markets and stages of process of development of market opportuntes as a whole. The stated above approach s convenent for formalzaton of the descrpton of nformaton base for management of development of market opportuntes of the enterprses. Each stage of an estmaton and choce of varants s consdered as system: stages of process - purpose of stages - nformaton necessary for acceptance of the decsons, - estmated crtera. It allows somewhat to lower uncertanty of formaton of nformaton base, at the expense of an establshment of unequvocal conformty between ёё by makng elements. For practcal realzaton of the stated approach the problem-orented packages of the appled programs can be used, for example, relatonal SDBM such as Open Access or tabulated processors such as Mcrosoft Excel, whch have the bult - n tools of processng of above mentoned mathematcal dependences.

10 Estmaton of opportuntes of the enterprse Defnton of prncples and factors Segmentatons Constructon of models The tax and analyss of the nformaton Research of models, allocaton of segments Complex estmaton of segments nds of the nformaton The compettors Trade channels Products The consumers The markets The characterstcs of the enterprses Purposes of stages Estmated crteron Capacty of a segment Level of proft The tendences of growth Avalablty of trade channels Suffcency of resources Compatblty wth the compettors Chances at a competton Stages Process formaton Fg. 3 The generalzed model of segmentaton as one of the stages of target market The usage of the receved results allows to make practcal toolkt, whch enables operatvely and wth a hgh degree of the valdty to carry out works on creaton of nformaton base for an estmaton and choce of drectons of development of market opportuntes, to predct expenses on ts updatng more precsely. Addressng to the stated above approaches under the decson of problems of defnton of a necessary and suffcent level of accumulaton of the nformaton wth the purpose of nformaton support of process of an estmaton of the alternatve projects, t s necessary to determne, that the offered mathematcal and nformaton models allow n the greater degree

11 to solve a problem of defnton of cost of the nformaton. But the problem of defnton of probable benefts from ts use s more dffcult and requres the further researches. The author's approach to the decson of ths problem we shall consder on an example of defnton of an optmum party between a level of accuracy of a choce of market postons of the enterprse by a method of segmentaton and expenses for formaton of the target market on the bass of ts allocated stes. Let's note, that the accuracy of a choce of market postons determnes opportuntes of the exstence of the managng subject, success of realzaton of ts potental n exstng external condtons (n vew of the tendences of ther change) wth the purpose of mantenance of a long-term survval and development wthn the framework of the chosen msson. The hgh mportance of process of market postonng (allocaton of target stes of the market for realzaton of the revealed market opportuntes) puts forward also hgh requrements to accuracy and qualty of performance of the approprate market researches, estmaton and nterpretaton of ther results. In the gven context t s necessary to understand accuracy of market postonng as degree of conformty of opportuntes of the enterprse to exstng condtons of managng n the target market, chosen for ther realzaton, ts segments or nches. The ncrease of accuracy and qualty of market postonng reduces a degree of uncertanty, allows to accept the proved decsons, but t causes sharp ncrease of expenses at the tax and analyss of the nformaton, and as a whole - ncrease of expenses at all process of search and allocaton of target stes of the market, and also formaton of the target market on ther base for realzaton of exstng opportuntes of development. For defnton of probable benefts from possesson of the nformaton t s necessary to execute the forecasts of the future development of events and to estmate probable results (ther cost estmaton) at a dfferent degree of awareness. It permts to establsh dependence of probable results on a degree of awareness about a subject of the decson and ts probable consequences (dependence of results on quantty and qualty of the ntal nformaton). It s necessary also to establsh what knds of the nformaton, what qualtes and n what quantty necessary for acceptance of the decsons at dfferent stages of a substantaton of the projects

12 of development, whch wll permt to estmate a degree of awareness n cost expresson. The consdered above approaches (see formulas 1-14 and fg. 2) can be appled for ths purpose. It s obvous, that t s necessary to fnd the conclatory proposals between expenses for achevement of the certan level of knowledge and expected results n cost expresson. Practcally t can be executed by a method of consecutve approxmaton. To an ntal degree of awareness (s estmated by quantty and qualty of the nformaton, and also expenses for ts recepton) t s necessary consstently to add certan gan and calculate expected meanngs of result. On one of teratons the total expenses for the nformaton wll be balanced wth results. Thus, the economcally expedent level of awareness wll be determned. We shall consder the basc rules of the approach [7], that permts to fnd an optmum party between a level of accuracy of process of search of the target markets (target or segments of nches of the market) method of segmentaton and expenses for ts achevement. Thus the process of a choce of market postons s consdered as multlevel teratve. Accordng to the gven approach of work are carred out on stages: account of expenses on search of stes of the market for realzaton of the revealed market opportuntes of development; estmaton of accuracy of process of search of stes of the market; defnton of an economcally effectve level of accuracy of a choce of a poston n the market. In turn, any of stages ncludes a lne of stages. Accordngly, the further consderaton we shall conduct on stages, and nsde stages - stage by stage. I. The market target stes allocaton works expenses calculatons. It s necessary, that the calculatons were carred out n the followng sequence: the concrete purposes defnng; t s necessary to solve defnton of tasks, whch for achevement of these purposes; an estmaton of expenses on the decson of these tasks. Ther sum wll gve focused sze of expenses on realzaton of works. By the purpose of works of the gven stage (as s marked above) there s a defnton by the enterprse of the place n the market, where the greatest measure can show ts comparatve

13 advantages, that s revealng of target segments or nches of the market, and exact forecastng of volumes of sellng on them. The works of the gven stage are necessary for carryng out n the followng sequence: estmaton of own opportuntes of the enterprse; defnton of prncples (orentaton to a product, orentaton to the consumer etc.) and factors (specfcty of nqures of the consumers, parameters of products, regons of sellng etc.) search of target stes of the market by a method of segmentaton; constructon of a complex of matrx models (functonal cards) [8] for allocaton and estmaton of segments or nches of the market on the consumers, products, basc compettors etc.; the tax and analyss of the nformaton, whch characterzes the markets of sellng; allocaton of target stes of the market and ther complex estmaton; choce of target segments of the market and manufacturng of the offers for acceptance of the admnstratve decsons. We shall consder the purposes of concrete stages and tasks, whch solve durng performance of works of these stages. Estmaton of own opportuntes of the enterprse. The purpose of a stage - to determne opportuntes of realzaton of varants of development of avalable market opportuntes of the enterprse n vew of the avalable equpment, technology, sources of supply by raw materal, ste etc. Durng achevement of the purpose the followng tasks are solved: 1. The analyss of market condton, that has developed, and prospects of ts development. 2. Revealng and estmaton of potental opportuntes of the basc compettors. 3. The analyss of techncal and economc opportuntes of the analyzed enterprse n comparson wth the basc compettors. Defnton of prncples and factors of segmentaton. The purpose of a stage - defnton of prncples of segmentaton, allocaton of the factors of segmentaton and ther meanngs, and also most probable combnatons of the factors n vew of ther meanngs.

14 Tasks, whch solve for achevement of an object n vew. 1. The analyss of opportuntes of development, data on sellng for the past perods of managng, tems of nformaton of bodes of state statstcs, branch structure of the consumers, geographcal dstrbuton of the market etc. 2. A choce of prncples, knd and factors of segmentaton (on the bass of the executed analyss). 3. Defnton of the most acceptable meanngs (replaceable) factors of segmentaton and degree of ther dfferentaton. 4. Revealng of best of combnatons of the factors. Constructon of matrx models (functonal cards) for allocaton and estmaton of stes of the market by a method of segmentaton on the consumers, products, basc compettors etc. the Purpose of a stage - constructon of matrx models (functonal cards) and ther representaton as the computer aded nformaton systems (databases and approprate software). Tasks, whch solve durng achevement of an object n vew. 1. Development of breadboard models of the forms of functonal cards (on the bass of results of a prevous stage). 2. Transformaton of functonal cards to a knd of matrxes (tables), representaton them as computer databases. The development of the software or (more probable) a choce of system management of databases (for example, Open Exсess or anyone another), n whch envronment wll be analyzed. The tax and analyss of the nformaton, whch characterzes the markets of sellng. The purpose of a stage - tax and analyss of the nformaton, fllng of tabulared (matrx) models by the fact sheet. Tasks, whch solve durng achevement of an object n vew. 1. Revealng of sources, methods and ways of the tax of the nformaton. 2. Development of the questonnare (f necessary). 3. The tax of the necessary data and ther orderng. 4. The analyss of the data.

15 5. Fllng of models by the fact sheet. Allocaton of segments of the market and ther complex estmaton. The purpose of works of a stage - allocaton of segments of the market and ther estmaton on all set of crtera, whch are consdered n a complex. Tasks, whch solve durng achevement of an object n vew. 1. The analyss of tabulated (matrx) models and allocaton of segments of the market. 2. An estmaton of segments by separate crtera from all of ther set. 3. A complex estmaton of segments by crtera. Choce of target segments and development of the offers for acceptance of the admnstratve decsons. The purpose of works of a stage - defnton of necessty performance of the followng teraton (recurrence of process segmentaton, snce one of prevous stages), or acceptance of the decson about end of process and choce of target segments. Tasks, whch solve durng achevement of an object n vew. 1. A choce of target segments. 2. Acceptance of the decson: to fnsh process or to repeat, snce one of prevous stages. 3. Development of the offers for acceptance of the admnstratve decsons by a management of the enterprse. It s necessary to note, that each followng teraton ncreases cost of works. General expenses for performance of works n vew of followng +1 teraton (only for a part works, whch are carred out once agan) are determned on formula: Zc1 Zc A, (15) where Zc - actually suffered expenses on prevous teraton; A - correcton factor determned on the bass of smlar works, carred out n the past perods of managng n smlar condtons.

16 Thus, n a general vew the crcle of tasks s determned whch are subject to the decson durng allocaton of stes of the market for realzaton of market opportuntes of development. The expenses for the decson of the allocated tasks n each concrete case dfferent also depend on specfcty of the enterprse, of a market stuaton etc. However n any case the general crcut of defnton of expenses on works on search of varants of development remans such: defnton of expenses on the decson of concrete tasks, and then account of ther sum. It s necessary to note, that at performance of practcal accounts for the concrete enterprse the nsgnfcant changes of structure of tasks are possble. II. An estmaton of accuracy allocaton of stes of the market for realzaton of the projects of development (estmaton of accuracy segmentaton for any of the allocated varants of development). Optmum are the segments whch have the best ntegrated (complex) estmaton on all set of known estmated crtera [8]: capacty of a segment (annual volume of sellng n natural or cost expresson); avalablty of trade channels (opportunty of the enterprse to receve trade channels of producton); the tendences of growth or reducton of a segment, whether they show t s necessary to focus work of the enterprse on the gven segment; level of proft of work n a segment; suffcency of resources for work n a segment; a degree of compatblty of a segment wth the markets of the basc compettors (n what degree the basc compettors are ready to concede by the elected segment of the market?); chances of success n a competton. For an estmaton of accuracy of a choce of market postons on all sets of set forth above crtera, t s expedent to apply the followng technque [7]. At frst determne ranks of the allocated estmated crtera concernng a concrete market stuaton. For ths purpose, expert method wll carry out the analyss of crtera on a degree of ther mportance for an estmaton of segments of the market of the concrete subject of economc actvty n a concrete market stuaton, applyng n pars comparson (tab. 1).

17 The table 1 - Table ситуационного of the analyss of estmated crtera Crteron Together 1.Capacty of a segment 2.Avalablty of a segment 3. Tendency of growth Level of proft Degree of compatblty wth the markets of the compettors 6.Chances n a competton 7.Presence of resources System of estmaton followng: 0 - the crteron n column has overweght n comparson wth crteron n a lne; 1 - the crteron n a lne has overweght n comparson wth crteron n column [5]. The rank of crteron s determned by the sum of unts n a lne. The large sum answers hgher rank. Then ranks of crtera (sum of numbers) are translated n weght parameters (n partcles of unt) under the followng crcut: - calculate the sum of numbers of all crteron (S=R ), for condtons of an example she(t) s equaled 21 (S=21); - calculate the weght characterstcs of any of crteron under the formula (1/S)R, for crtera n tab. 1, accordngly, we receve: 0,23; 0,14; 0,10; 0,29; 0,05; 0,05; 0,14.

18 The desgned weght characterstcs of crteron are used n the further analyss. At the second stage t s carred out an estmaton of the allocated target stes of the market (segments or "nches") on any of crtera separately on a known technque of the author [7]. For what, characterze (tab. 2) a degree of conformty of the allocated segments or nches of the market to estmated crtera. In column wth numbers of crteron (or ther names) aganst lnes wth the approprate estmaton put down marks, whch show a degree of conformty of a segment to estmated crteron. System of puttng down of estmatons: on crossng of a lne wth an estmaton on a seral scale and column wth number of crteron wrte down numbers of stes of the market, whch are analyzed (n the table the estmaton by crtera only of two of them) s executed. A relatve estmaton К of a ste (segment or the nches) market on any of crtera determne behnd the formula (16). Table 2 The allocated ste of the market degree s of conformty to estmated crtera analyss Estma- A seral scale Crteron ton Corresponds completely Probably corresponds 1 2 1,2 2 Vaguely 1, 2 1, Probably doesn t correspond Completely doesn t 1 correspond P P max, (16)

19 where P - estmaton of a ste of the market on crteron; P max - the greatest possble estmaton (n ths case s 4). At the thrd stage carry out an estmaton of accuracy allocaton of stes of the market on all complex of taken nto account estmated crtera (tab. 3). In column of the approprate stes of the market opposte to any of crtera put an estmaton, whch s desgned as product of a relatve estmaton (desgned n tab. 2) on the weght characterstc of the approprate crteron. A fnal estmaton of accuracy allocaton of stes of the market carres out on the sum of estmatons by all crtera. Wth the help of the gven technque determnes an ntegrated (complex) estmaton of accuracy allocaton of target stes of the market on all complex of estmated crtera (0К1), thus reduce together qualtatve and quanttatve estmatons by separate crtera. On sze of an ntegrated estmaton К t s possble to judge accuracy (qualty) of process of segmentaton (than closer К to 1, the above accuracy), that s - about accuracy of a market poston. That s about accuracy of allocaton of stes of the market (segments or nches) for formaton on ther bass of the target market for realzaton of the revealed market opportuntes. Table 3 The complex estmaton of stes of the market allocaton s accuracy Crteron Stes of the market Level of proft 0,145 0,290 0,218 Capacty 0,173 0,173 0,230 Avalablty 0,070 0,070 0,070 Presence of resources 0,105 0,105 0,035 The tendences of growth 0,100 0,025 0,025 Chances of success n a competton 0,000 0,000 0,038

20 Degree of compatblty wth the compettors 0,013 0,013 0,025 markets Total estmaton (Кс) 0,606 0,676 0,641 III. Defnton of an accuracy s economcally effectve level. In vew of stated above, estmaton of accuracy of works of alternatve varants formaton of the target market conduct comparng ther ntegrated estmatons. The advantage has that set of segments, whch has hgher ntegrated estmatons. On the other hand, as s marked above, the process of a choce of market postons s consdered by the enterprse as multlevel teratve. After each teraton s analyzed: to repeat works of process at the followng level equal to approxmaton or to fnsh them? Each followng teraton ncreases cost of repeated works, the ncrease of accuracy of segmentaton sharply ncreases expenses, whch can exceed expected benefts from exacter defnton of target segments and formaton on ther base of the target market. Therefore t s necessary to determne that optmum level of accuracy, whch excess conducts to ncrease of general expenses (fg. 4). But at the gven stage t s heavy to determne expenses of work on generated on the bass of ts allocated stes (segments or nches) target market of the enterprse. However t s qute natural to make the assumptons, that the ncrease of accuracy of a market poston reduces these expenses. The dependence between the sze of the target market formaton expenses (formaton of a marketng network, system of the goods flow, system of stmulaton etc.) on the bass of ts allocated target stes (segments or nches) n nverse proporton depends on accuracy of performance of process of a market poston. Ths dependence can be descrbed by the followng equaton: dz dk Z r Z Z 1 r, (17)

21 Expenses General expenses Expenses of work on target segments Expenses of segmentaton Optmum level Accuracy parameter Fg. 4 The optmum level s of market poston accuracy defnton where Z - expense for work n the gven target market or ts ste; - parameter of accuracy of a choce (ntegrated estmaton); r - factor of proportonalty. The sze s determned accordng to a technque stated above. As s marked above, ntegrated estmaton theoretcally accepts meanng from 0 up to 1, however stes of the market (segments or nche of the market), whch have an ntegrated estmaton less than 0,5 to consder as target s nexpedent. Thus, can change n lmts (0,5-1,0). Factor r can be determned n such a way. Let known meanngs Z at known, for example, from the smlar works, whch have been carred out n the past perods of managng n smlar condtons (= 1, 2, 3..., n). Let's copy the equatons (17), havng transformed t to a knd convenent for the followng analyss: Z Z Z r, (18)

22 Acceptng =0,01, after transformatons s receved r Z Z (19) For defnton of factor r we use a method of the least squares: mn n r Z Z. (20) By dfferentaton (20) on r we shall receve n r Z Z Z. (21) Havng solved (21) rather r, prevously havng substtuted known Z and, determne meanngs r. For defnton Z we solve the equatons (17), prevously havng transformed t to a knd dk r Z dz 1. (22) Decson of ths equaton: C r Z ln ln ln Or r e C Z. (23) Marks of the module lowered, as the szes Z and accept only postve meanngs.

23 Constant C t s possble to fnd f to substtute n the equaton (23) known meanngs Z and, for example, whether Z and or Z n and n, receved as a result of the analyss of processes of segmentaton executed n the past perods of managng n smlar condtons, and to solve t rather C. For example: C Z e r. (24) Thus receved analytcal dependences (21) - (24), are sutable for account of sze of expenses, suffcent for formaton of the target market on the bass of ts allocated target stes dependng on accuracy (qualty) of ther allocaton (accuracy of a market poston). The sze of common expenses on allocaton of target stes of the market and formaton of the target market on ther bass can be calculated n such a way: Zcy Zc Z. (25) The optmum level of accuracy s set by a condton Zсу mn. (26) For practcal accounts for defnton of an optmum level of accuracy of process of a choce of market postons (formaton of the target market on the bass of target segments or nches of the market for realzaton varants of development of market opportuntes of the enterprse, thus the process s consdered as multlevel teratve, the followng algorthm s offered. 1. Allocaton of target stes (segments or nches) market on a known technque of the author [7]. 2. Defnton of an ntegrated estmaton of accuracy of process of allocaton anyone, from all of ther set, target stes of the market (degree of conformty of the allocated segments to estmated crtera).

24 3. Account of the actually suffered expenses on realzaton of works on a market poston, that s search of target stes of the market. 4. Account forecast of sze of expenses on realzaton of works on the allocated stes of the market (23). 5. Account of common sze of expenses on formaton of the target market and work on t (25). 6. Defnton of expedency performance of the followng teraton for exacter allocaton of a set of target stes of the market. In turn, ncludes the followng stages Forecast estmaton of expenses on realzaton of works, whch are necessary repeatedly for executng (after enterng respectve alteratons), as products of the actually suffered expenses on performance of these works on sze of correcton factor A (15), whch sze s specfed n process of accumulaton of the data Forecastng of meanng of an ntegrated parameter of accuracy of a market poston expected after probable followng teraton. For recepton of dependence of a probable gan of an ntegrated parameter К from quantty of teratons t s necessary carry out specal researches or to accept t at a level of smlar works on the segmentaton whch has been carred out n the past perods of managng n smlar condtons. In forecastng accounts, at absence of the mentoned above data, the meanng of an ntegrated parameter s possble to expect tll the followng emprcal formula (for second and followng teratons): , (27) where - meanng of an ntegrated parameter determned after prevous teraton. If desgned +1 > 1, accept +1 = On the bass forecastng meanng of a parameter of accuracy ( +1 ) the expected sze of expenses on work on the allocated stes of the market (Z +1 ) under the formula (23) The expected sze of total expenses under the formula (25) - Zсум +1 pays off and s compared wth actually desgned Zсум. If Zсум +1 < Zсум, the followng teraton to carry

25 out expedently, f Zсум +1 Zсум (crteron of end), process of allocaton of target stes of the market fnsh. The gven approach and approprate methodcal devce permt to fnd an optmum party between a level of accuracy of search of target stes of the market by a method of segmentaton, whch s consdered as multlevel teratve process, and also expenses for process of formaton of the target market on the bass of ts allocated target stes (formaton of a marketng network and systems of a flow of the goods, system engneerng stmulaton etc.). And t, n turn, enables to allocate the target markets or ther stes for development of market opportuntes of the concrete enterprses n concrete condtons of managng, spendng on t there are a lot of means, how many t s necessary, not supposng ther over expendtures. Effectvely operate processes of search by the enterprses of the place n the market for realzaton of ther potental n exstng external condtons n vew of prospects of ther development. Not applyng on t s necessary to note settlng depth of the analyss, that the stated above approaches appled n a complex permt to solve a problem of defnton of a necessary and suffcent level accumulaton of the nformaton for management of development of market opportuntes of the enterprses at a stage of formaton of the target market for ther realzaton. They can be accepted for a bass at performance of smlar development for other stages of ths process. The further development should be drected on development of formal procedures of defnton of a necessary and suffcent level accumulaton of the nformaton (on volumes and knds) for a substantaton of a choce of drectons of development of market opportuntes of the enterprses.

26 The lterature used 1. Голубков Е.П. и др. Маркетинг: выбор лучшего решения. - М.: Экономика, с. 2. Базелл Р., Кокс Д., Браун Р. Информация и риск в маркетинге: Пер. с англ. - М.: Финстатинформ, с. 3. В помощь преподавателю. Основы экономической теории. Тема 11. Экономика информации неопределенности и риска / Учебно-методическое пособие под ред. Р.Нуреева // Вопросы экономики С Пиндайк Р., Рубинфельд Д. Микроэкономика: Пер.с англ. - М.: Экономика, Дело, с. 5. Джонс Дж.К. Методы проектирования: Пер.с англ. - М.: Мир, с. 6. Ильяшенко С.Н. Информационное обеспечение стадий процесса сегментации рынков сбыта промышленных предприятий // Информатика-Машиностроение С Ілляшенко С.М. Управління інноваційним розвитком: проблеми, концепції, методи: Навчальний посібник. - Суми: ВТД "Університетська книга", с. 8.Современный маркетинг / В.Е.Хруцкий, И.В.Корнеева, Е.Э.Автухова / Под.ред.В.Е.Хруцкого. -М. Финансы и статистика., с.