February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013

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1 February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 by Patti Freeman Evans for ebusiness & Channel Strategy Professionals Making Leaders Successful Every Day

2 Includes a market-sizing forecast February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 by Patti Freeman Evans with Vikram Sehgal, Cristina Bugnaru, and Brendan McGowan Executive Summary US online retail sales will reach $229 billion in The market will grow at a CAGR of 10% over the five-year forecast period. The current economic crisis is dampening the immediate growth of online sales, due to lack of credit access, low consumer confidence, decreased spending, and price-conscious behavior. Some product categories, such as video games, pet supplies, and auto parts, will weather the economic conditions better than others, like PCs and home improvement products. In the long term, the demographics of online buyers will sustain the pace of growth of online sales, as these buyers are less susceptible to financial difficulties; the foundational strengths of ecommerce, such as accessibility, will also support growth. The online market will enter a natural early phase of maturing in the latter three years of the forecast. Nonetheless, ecommerce will continue to have a very strong influence on both online and offline retail sales, with the total Web impact on retail sales growing at a CAGR of 10%. table of Contents 2 The Pace Of US Online Retail Sales Growth Slows Slightly Between 2008 And 2013 WHAT IT MEANS 12 Online Retailers Need To Remain Cautious In The Immediate Future NOTES & RESOURCES We conducted our analysis using a series of proprietary models. Related Research Documents US Online Holiday Retail Forecast, 2008 October 21, , Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester, Technographics, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please clientsupport@forrester.com. For additional information, go to

3 2 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 The PAce of us ONLINE RETAIL SALES growth slows slightly BETWEEN 2008 AND 2013 In 2008, US retail sales grew to $141 billion; we project 2009 sales to grow by approximately 11% (see Figure 1). Over the five-year forecast period of 2009 to 2013, online retail in the US will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% to reach $229 billion in 2013 (see Figure 2). A CAGR of 10% is a reflection of continued ecommerce strength, which contrasts with the recent weak offline sales during this past holiday season. In light of the current economic environment, online retail will have a dampened growth rate through 2010 (see Figure 3). By 2011, the negative effects of the economy will have dwindled; however, toward the end of the five-year forecast, the growth curve will dip below double-digit levels because of the natural market maturing pattern of the online retail environment, as we had noted in previous years. 1 Economic Pressures Dampen The Immediate Growth Of Online Sales The recent economic developments caused by the credit and housing crisis have forced the US into recession. According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey of 54 economists, the unemployment rate is forecast to top out at 8.4% as job cuts continue into 2010, further reducing consumer spending power. 2 Consequently, the multiple economic pressures that consumers are facing will negatively influence both the online and the offline US retail sectors, with online being less affected. Online buyers have less available credit to finance their purchases. Consumers are no longer able to take equity out of their homes to fund spending. The recent economic crisis has caused a decrease in home prices, and The Wall Street Journal December 2008 Economic Forecasting Survey predicts a 6.9% drop in the house price index, with further declines expected into This decline in home equity is coupled with consumers reduced access to credit and has an overall negative impact on consumer spending power and consumption. Consumer confidence is at its lowest point in decades. According to the Institute for Social Research of the University of Michigan, the June 2008 index of consumer sentiment reached 56.4, a 34% decrease since the same month in 2007 and the third-lowest reading since The reality of the current economic conditions and the continuous media reporting of increasing gas and consumer product prices, falling home prices, declines in pension investments, accelerating job losses, and the restriction of the credit markets have had a negative effect on consumer confidence. According to a recent JupiterResearch consumer survey, 35% of buyers plan to avoid major purchases given the current state of the US economy, a reflection of the general consumer wariness. 4 February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

4 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To Figure 1 Forecast: US ecommerce Sales, 2008 To 2013 Total US online sales ($ billions) Growth Actual 2008 $ % Forecast $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % Apparel, accessories, and footwear Appliances and home improvement $23.6 $17.2 $27.0 $19.2 $30.9 $22.5 $34.1 $25.2 $37.2 $27.8 $40.3 $30.3 Art and collectibles $1.7 $1.8 $2.2 $2.5 $2.9 $3.2 Auto parts $3.2 $3.6 $4.2 $4.7 $5.2 $5.8 Books $5.1 $5.4 $5.9 $6.3 $6.7 $7.1 Computer hardware, software, and peripherals $25.5 $27.2 $30.1 $32.4 $34.3 $36.0 Consumer electronics $11.1 $12.5 $14.6 $16.3 $17.8 $19.2 Event tickets $5.0 $5.2 $5.6 $6.0 $6.3 $6.7 Flowers $2.2 $2.4 $2.7 $2.9 $3.1 $3.3 Food and beverage $7.3 $8.6 $10.3 $11.9 $13.6 $15.4 Furniture $1.6 $1.8 $2.3 $2.7 $3.2 $3.7 Jewelry $3.1 $3.4 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0 $5.5 Movie tickets $1.0 $1.1 $1.2 $1.3 $1.4 $1.5 Music/video $5.5 $6.2 $7.1 $7.8 $8.4 $8.8 Office products $5.2 $5.5 $6.0 $6.5 $6.9 $7.4 Over-the-counter medicines and personal care $5.0 $5.9 $6.9 $7.8 $8.7 $9.6 Pets $1.5 $1.8 $2.1 $2.5 $2.9 $3.3 Sporting goods $2.7 $2.9 $3.2 $3.4 $3.6 $3.9 Toys and video games $6.7 $7.2 $7.6 $8.0 $8.9 $10.4 Other $7.2 $7.4 $7.5 $7.6 $7.7 $7.8 Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US) 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009

5 4 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 Figure 2 US Online Retail Sales Will Grow At A CAGR Of 10% Through 2013 $125.1 $141.3 US online retail sales* ($ billions) $156.1 $176.9 $194.4 $211.7 $229.1 % of total US retail sales % 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% *Retail does not include auto, travel, and prescription drugs. Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US) Figure 3 Organic Growth In The Number Of Buyers And Individual Spend Will Level Off 30% Total US online sales Year-over-year growth rate Per-buyer online spending 19% 18% New online buyers 9% 13% 5% 13% 9% 4% 13% 11% 10% 10% 7% 7% 3% 3% 3% 9% 8% 6% 6% 2% 2% Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US) February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

6 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To Consumers are saving more than they have in the past four years. Consumers are aware that the economy goes through cycles, but given the depth of the current recession, they will continue to maintain a decreased spending level in an attempt to rebuild their savings even if their confidence increases. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the personal saving rate of consumers which measures the amount of disposable income that they don t spend was close to 3% in the second quarter of 2008, after almost four years at less than 1%. 5 Saving more means spending less, which translates into difficult times for retail. Consumers are finding ways to trade down. Fifteen percent of consumers plan to buy secondary market products rather than the newest item. 6 This urge to trade down is also reflected in Wal- Mart s remarkable performance in the 2008 holiday season. The world s largest retailer reported an increase of 3.4% in same-store sales for the month of November, a period during which most retailers posted decreases. Discount stores and merchandise mixes that appeal to consumers need to trade down are more likely to be successful in the current environment. Consumers do more research for the best deals. Thirty-three percent of online users will do more research online to make sure they get the best price before purchasing goods. 7 Twenty-two percent say they will use search engines and comparison-shopping sites, and 13% will plan their trips in more detail, using the Web to reduce the number of visits to the stores. This research process shows an increased concern for not only finding the best deals but also for doing more targeted shopping and making fewer impulse purchases. Online Buyers Demographics Are A Catalyst For Online Retail Sales Growth The recent economic developments have influenced all consumers in the US. The impact of the economic slowdown on online retail will be mitigated to an extent by the fact that some of the online-specific demographics of buyers are more recession-proof than those of the average offline shopper. Due to their particular characteristics, online buyers remain a bit more resilient overall and thus will help sustain modest online sales growth. Online buyers are wealthier and less affected by the economy. Online buyers with household incomes of $75,000 or more represent the largest group of the online buying population (see Figure 4). They make up more than 40% of all online buyers almost twice the number of those with household incomes of $50,000 to $75,000. They are also less affected by the economy than the average consumer. 8 Forty-four percent of consumers with household incomes of $75,000 or more think that their financial situation is likely to remain about the same, while 25% believe that it will become slightly better. Also, this group makes an average of 10 purchases per year, which is two more than the average online buyer. In the near term, disproportionate online spending by men will support online sales. The male/female spending split is almost equal online; this contrasts with offline, where women are commonly held to account for roughly 70% of purchases (see Figure 5). The percentage of males who will shop less overall is 18 percentage points lower than the percentage of females who will adopt the same attitude as a result of the current state of the US economy , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009

7 6 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 Figure 4 Households With Incomes Of $75,000-Plus Provide More Than Half Of Online Retail Spend Household income: Overall online retail spend ($ billions) $75,000+ $50,000-$75,000 $68 $75 $82 $92 $98 $105 $111 $28 $31 $35 $40 $46 $51 $57 $75,000+ households share of US online retail spending % 53% 53% 52% 51% 49% 48% Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Demographic Model, 12/08 (US) Figure 5 The Male/Female Spending Split Is Almost Equal Online Overall US online retail spending by gender ($ billions) Female Male $71 $70 $78 $78 $89 $88 $98 $97 $106 $106 $114 $ Male share of online retail spending 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Demographic Model, 12/08 (US) February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

8 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To The Foundational Strengths Of ecommerce Drive Continued Short-Term Growth ecommerce provides a series of advantages that directly address buyers needs in financially difficult times. These include better deals, convenience, and access to information. These benefits are likely to motivate a wallet shift from offline to online, further strengthening online sales and fostering added growth of channel share. Online shopping is perceived as less expensive. Seventy-one percent of online buyers who use more than one Web site when purchasing products online are in search of better prices. 10 The online channel is still perceived as a means of finding the best deals and less expensive items. At the same time, consumers do not have to pay tax for those retailers that do not have brick-andmortar facilities in the state from where the purchase is made, which can reduce the price even further. The Internet provides easy, anytime access to a vast array of useful information. Of the online buyers who use more than one Web site when shopping around, 41% do so because they like to shop around whereas 30% are in search of more product information. 11 The online channel offers the possibility of doing this research easily, as there are no switching costs involved in moving from one Web site to another. Consumers can conveniently research a larger set of retailers than they could visit in their local market. The vastness of the sites offering relevant product information has proved valuable to online users rather than daunting. In fact, 58% of online users say that the breadth of information available online helps them feel more confident that they are buying the right product to meet their needs. Online shopping offers consumer and expert opinions. Product reviews are one of the features that clearly distinguish the online shopping experience from the offline one. Twentythree percent of online buyers shopping at more than one Web site were in search of product reviews from other buyers or from experts. 12 This type of content offers an extra boost of confidence and will continue to attract consumers. Online Retail Sales Growth Will Level Off In The Long Term With the strengthening of the economy, the year-over-year growth percentages of online sales will get stronger by 2010/2011. However, these growth rates will not bounce back to pre-2007 levels, as the online marketplace will enter a natural early phase of maturing by the latter three years of the forecast. Over time, the number of online purchases will stabilize. Individual online buyer spending will begin to enter a period of stabilization in the later years of the current forecast, with consumers making an average of eight online purchases per year. 13 New buyer growth slows to a long-term organic pattern. Online buyer penetration is already slightly more than 70% among those online buyers ages 19 to 64 and with household incomes of $75,000 or more. By 2013, the number of consumers who have made at least one purchase 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009

9 8 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 online will reach 69% and is expected to plateau at this level. Moreover, consumers who adopt online purchasing in the next few years will most likely come from lower socioeconomic groups and have a lower impact on sales growth. The stabilization of online sales characterizes the long-term growth trend. Over the coming decades, online retail sales will plateau at around 10% of total US retail sales Within the confines of this five-year forecast, the rate of growth for online sales in the US will slow to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% through The mature US catalog industry will see sales growth of 8% year over year, and the DMA projects that it will remain at that rate over the coming five years, with economic factors causing some near-term downward adjustments. 14 Analogous industries give us a directional sense of how a channel matures over time. Some Online Product Categories Are More Insulated From The Recession Than Others Seventeen of the 31 categories we forecast will still experience double-digit CAGRs over the next five years. Some of these categories are large in terms of actual spending, such as apparel and accessories and consumer electronics. Other large categories, such as PCs, software, and books, will grow at less than 10%. The economic downturn affects these growth rates but does not affect the growth rates of all categories equally (see Figure 6). Figure 6 Categories With The Highest Penetration Show Slight Gains In Market Share US online sales as a percent of total category sales 50% 40% 30% PCs Peripherals Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US) 20% 10% 0% Personal computers Peripherals Videos Auto parts Apparel and accessories Home improvement Videos Auto parts Apparel and accessories Home improvement % 49% 52% 54% 54% 54% 32% 32% 33% 33% 33% 33% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

10 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To PCs/Electronics These include: Personal computers (PCs). The PC product category will grow 7% in 2009 and 12% in 2010, a slight decrease from last year s 15%. The nature of a PC purchase is an all or nothing one, as people will either buy a PC or defer their purchase. In contrast, a consumer may buy one book fewer in a year but will still buy books in a year of lowered spending. Therefore, the PC category is more adversely affected by consumers cutting back their spending, particularly on big purchases where they cut out buys in that category completely. Technological advancements often drive sales in this product category; however, even these enticements may fall on deaf ears, with many buyers in this category choosing to bypass high-ticket purchases during financially difficult times. Even Apple, a company that has outpaced the growth of the overall PC market, showed signs of weakness in November 2008, with sales declining 1% compared with a year earlier. 15 This decrease in PC online sales is also caused by the fact that this category already represents almost 50% of total US consumer PC sales; as an early growth category, it has matured earlier than others (see Figure 7). Figure 7 The Percentage Of Online Buyers Is Leveling Off In High-Penetration Categories 20% 15% 10% Percentage of US online buyers Video games Home improvement PCs Pet supplies Auto parts 5% 0% Video games Home improvement Personal computers Pet supplies Auto parts % 15% 15% 16% 17% 17% 17% 13% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 11% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 14% 8% 9% 9% 9% 10% 10% 11% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% Source: Forrester Research Internet Shopping Model, 12/08 (US) 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009

11 10 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 Video games. Video games are an interactive form of escapism, and they cost no more than a family s movie outing or having dinner at a restaurant. With the introduction of Nintendo s Wii and various enhancements to the latest-generation console systems, the video game market has been growing at a healthy rate. In addition, newer systems like the Wii have attracted a videogame-playing audience that traditionally shied away from gaming. More games targeting a broader family set have appeared, with software publishers releasing titles aimed at young girls, families, and women over Consumers inclination to nest during difficult times is thus reflected in the sales of video games, an area where spending was not cut back in As a result, online sales reached $4.5 billion in 2008 and grew 15% over Affordable Indulgences These include: Pet supplies. The total online spending for pet supplies will grow at a CAGR of 17% over the next five years. With double-digit growth, this category seems to be more insulated from the recession than others, due to consumers tendency to pamper their pets for the emotional comfort that they provide in return. Pet products are not necessarily high-ticket items. Some items, such as pet food, are necessities for pet owners and require regular purchases, whereas other items, such as pet toys, are affordable indulgences that entail at least a minimum level of spending. Do-It-Yourself Items These include: Home improvement products. This is one category that is not weathering the recession as well as other businesses. With house sales declining, consumers are also not doing any major improvements to their homes but are instead limiting themselves to necessary repairs. In 2008, online spending on home improvement products increased by only 3%. This substantial decrease in the growth rate will bounce back slightly during 2009, with spending going up by 17% in Auto parts. The online sales of auto parts will grow at a CAGR of 12% over the next five years, and the number of online buyers in this product category will grow at a CAGR of 11%. The current recession is increasing consumer interest in auto parts, as consumers turn toward fixing their cars instead of buying new ones. A sharp decline in demand for cars reinforces this trend: GM expects to get government funding to pull itself out of financial trouble, and Toyota s domestic sales decreased 27.6% in November 2008 and its exports dropped 23.9% in the same month. 18 February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

12 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To Online Research Will Influence More Than Half Of Offline Sales Online sales and offline sales influenced by consumers researching their purchases online will grow to 54% of total US retail sales by 2013 (see Figure 8). This staggering percentage illustrates the value consumers place on the Internet as a trusted research resource for their purchases. The total online and offline retail sales influenced by ecommerce will grow at a CAGR of 10% for the next five years, a percentage unaffected by the economic pressures. Customers don t want to make a mistake. Thirty-four percent of online buyers make a purchase only after returning to the Web site for a second time. This does not necessarily prove their indecision but rather the fact that they use the Web as a tool to inform themselves about products, to research better prices, and to ensure that they make the right purchase decision. 19 Shoppers continue to value a multichannel experience. Forty-two percent of online buyers expect to be able to return or exchange items purchased online in a physical store, and 27% want to be able to order products online and pick them up in a brick-and-mortar store. 20 To gain competitive advantage, retailers should implement a highly integrated strategy that brings together their online and offline stores; they will then derive the benefits of the online influence on offline sales. Figure 8 Online Research Continues To Play A Primary Role In Influencing Offline Sales US online and online-influenced retail sales ($ billions) Online-infuenced retail sales Online retail sales $1,069 $1,177 $1,266 $1,348 $610 $733 $834 $937 $106 $125 $141 $156 $177 $194 $212 $ US online and online-influenced retail sales as a % 30% 34% 37% 40% 46% 50% 53% 54% of total sales Source: Forrester Research Internet Retail Offline Influence Model, 12/08 (US) 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009

13 12 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To 2013 International Online Retail Expansion Loses Luster With The Growing Global Economic Crisis What seemed to be a US-only financial crisis has expanded and is now stretching across the globe from the developed world to developing countries. Retailers with international operations abroad have been benefiting from economies of scale; however, the prospects of investing in such an expansion for those that have not done it already may be less attractive in the next two years. Global economic growth has slowed down. The latest economic forecast from the World Bank expects the world economy s growth to slow to 0.9% in 2009, down from 2.5% in 2008 the weakest expansion since the bank started keeping records in Due to consumers increased unemployment and decreased income, consumption will closely follow this reduction of economic growth, which will have an impact on online sales abroad. Developed countries are equally as affected as developing countries. Consumers in developed and developing countries are strapped for cash. The credit crisis has extended to countries in the European Union, while decreased consumption in the US has affected countries like China. Consumers across the globe will have to scale back just as US consumers are forced to now, hindering the expansion of online sales abroad. Capital investment is retrenching. Anecdotal reports from online retailers and the vendors serving them herald some retrenching regarding planned near-term investments. They report that rather than moving forward with total replatforming projects, retailers may be looking to pick a few smaller development projects. For example, improving the checkout experience by implementing a Flash-based process is a more plausible investment than a full-fledged international expansion project in tough economic times. This pattern is likely to affect retailers that have not yet launched operations abroad but were planning to do so in the coming quarters. WHAT IT MEANS ONLINE RETAILERS NEED TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE During the next 12 to 18 months, online retailers need to remain cautious. The current economic crisis will affect online sales, yet not as severely as offline sales. The growth rate will pick up starting in 2010/2011, but we will not see hockey-stick growth opportunities, due to the natural maturing of the online market. This period will continue to reinforce the fundamental values of the online environment, which will likely resonate with consumers concerns in the long term and support online sales growth during financially difficult times and beyond. Endnotes 1 Online retail in the US continues to perform well in spite of macroeconomic events, yet, over time, the market will inevitably mature. See the January 26, 2008, US Online Retail Forecast, 2007 To 2012 JupiterResearch report. February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, , Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited

14 US Online Retail Forecast, 2008 To Source: The Wall Street Journal December 2008 Economic Forecasting Survey. 3 Source: Institute for Social Research of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Report, June 2008 ( 4 Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q Source: Personal Saving Rate, US Bureau of Economic Analysis ( 6 Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 9 Source: Jupiter Research Economic Downturn Online Consumer Survey, Q Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 11 Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 12 Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 13 Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 14 Source: The DMA 2008 Statistical Fact Book ( 15 Source: Yukari Iwatani Kane and Justin Scheck, Apple Loses Some Shine as Mac Sales Slow, The Wall Street Journal, December 16, 2008 ( 16 Source: Barbara Ortutay, Big Video Games Fans Prove Crucial to the Industry, Associated Press, December 18, 2008 ( 17 For additional information on PC and console games, see the November 12, 2008, US Console Games Forecast, 2008 to 2013 JupiterResearch report. 18 Source: Yoshio Takahashi, Toyota s Domestic Output Drops Sharply, The Wall Street Journal, December 24, 2008 ( 19 Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 20 Source: JupiterResearch/NPD Retail Consumer Survey (04/08), n = 2,231 (US). 21 Source: The Wall Street Journal December 2008 Economic Forecasting Survey. 2009, Forrester Research, Inc. Reproduction Prohibited February 2, 2009 Updated: March 4, 2009

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