Ten Years of the Skye Bridge Lessons, questions and implications

Transcription

1 Ten Years of the Skye Bridge Lessons, questions and implications Derek Halden DHC Derek Halden, DHC 26 Palmerston Place, Edinburgh, Tel

2 Contents Transport and rural development The bridge Lessons and issues

3 Travel Opportunities Travel Time to Nearest Major City in Hours > <0.5 Urban Postcodes Time to major Cities

4 Access to Local Services

5 Skye Bridge in Context

6 The Studies 1992 Feasibility Studies 1995/6 Baseline before and after review 1998 DTZ study 2002 Napier review year review Review of data and research Survey work Analysis of relationships and trends Lessons Learned

7 Wider Impacts Skye Bridge Direct Impacts Time, Cost, Reliability, Information, Image, Comfort Households Businesses Tourists Consumption Patterns Employment and income effects Operating Costs Employment Volume/ distribution of sales and purchases Trip number/length Trip origins and destinations Expenditure Levels Migration Relocation R l (in and out) Tourism T i investments t Demand for Local Change in investment Shifts in tourism Services patterns demand and supply Consumption trends SHORTE ER- TERM RESPON SES S LONGER- TERM RESPONSE Wealth Creation Income Productivity Local Socio-Economic Impact Job Generation Employment Job Quality Quality of Life Amenity Income Distribution Regional Impact Linkages and multipliers Displacement

8 Timeline Date Event Principal Direct Impact April hour ferry services introduced. Time, reliability 17 October 1995 Bridge opens and ferry services cease. Tolls were slightly cheaper than ferry fares for all Time, image, comfort, reliability, and cost vehicle categories Toll regime change funded by Scottish Cost Executive, with reductions in tolls for local people via books of tickets to 1.34 per single journey. 21 December 2004 Tolls removed. Cost, time

9 Other Changes

10 The Changes Minutes Pedestrians Scheduled Bus 0 Complex changes with new bus routes and frequencies that significantly increase some journey times and reduce Car LGV HGV Coach Up to 4 hours in summer peaks others [0.05] (bus Ferry Tolls/fares All Discount High Low Discount High Low Discount (single Season Season season season season journeys) Pedestrian (bus fare)? s 2 fare)? Car/light vans Local Bus * Midi Coach * Coach * HGV1 * HGV2 *

11 Analysis Zones

12 Ti Trip Distribution Th housand Trips per Annum Kyleakin Skye (S) Skye (N) Tho ousand trips Kyle of Lochalsh Lochalsh Lochaber Rest of Highland Elsewhere

13 900 Thousand Trips per Annum By Purpose HBW EB Holiday Other 300 nnum Trips per A Thousand HBW EB Holiday Other 0 Kyle Lochalsh Lochaber Highland Elsewhere

14 Tra affic Index (1996 6=100) Kyle-Kyleakin Skye Bridge Rural Scottish Trunk Roads Year

15 Suppressed Local Trips Approx 400k per year

16 Trends in the Economy

17 Business Views of Impacts have Changed Local impacts relatively more important

18 Business Impacts Winners Entrepreneurs Investors Skye brand Losers Protected markets e.g. shops Low value markets

19 Tourism Impact of toll removal limited Positive impacts through image and marketing Negative impact from loss of island identify Mallaig and Glenelg ferries largely tourist travel Accommodation quality critical Bed spaces? Business ownership issues?

20 Household Views Now closer to expectations for less remote areas

21 Household Views of Toll Removal 35% 30% ting Impact % All Responses Indicat 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Incr. Shopping in Kyle / Lochalsh Incr. Social Visits in Kyle / Lochalsh Incr. Shopping / Social in Inverness Incr. Employment Opps / New Jobs On/Off Island Moved / Considering Moving to Skye Reduced Frustration / Cost / Hassle Incr. Shopping on Skye Incr. Social Visits to Skye Others Lifestyle Changes

22 General Perceptions 30% of house buyers from outside Scotland Fastest increase in house sales Some local net migration from mainland to island Attitudes and accessibility Very strong correlation

23 Household Savings Some evidence of savings by households In shops, tolls Household savings on toll circa 1m Net saving less than 200k Households in the south of Skye spending more on transport

24 Islands and Links to Mainland Economies Remoteness is the most important factor

25 User Benefits Three fifths of the benefit comes from toll removal

26 Appraisal Issues Transport appraisal did not help to identify important t impacts Demand could not be forecast without knowing the economic impacts Once we know the economic impacts then transport appraisal can be used to measure them However values of time are much lower than national averages so what are we comparing Setting transport investment in context

27 Define/redefine the accessibility problem Appraisal Framework Who needs to be involved in delivering the change What knowledge of accessibility impacts is required by each stakeholder Define practical solutions Assess the impacts of the change on each people group Identify delivery approach to maximise i the accessibility benefits

28 Questions What sort of rural and remote areas do people want? What is the role of government in supporting this? How can we make the right transport decisions given the high costs and long term benefits?