David Vidal SIMON-KUCHER & PARTNERS

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1 David Vidal SIMON-KUCHER & PARTNERS

2 Online dynamic pricing : Making it work for your business David Vidal Partner Paris Office

3 Classical situation : Up to 45% of price change are dilutive in Omni channel Price change Volume change in response to price change 100% 80% Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners project, anonymized data Price change analysis performed on : TOP100 sellers of a brickand-mortar 2 Months 23% of turnover 60% 40% 20% 0% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 22% of turnover -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% Volume change 15% of turnover 28% of turnover 12% of turnover OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 3

4 A clear tendency of increasing web research Increase in online queries Google Trends index Source : Google Trends estimates OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 4

5 leading sometimes to simplistic algorithms price match mechanisms The Blind leading the Blind? Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 5

6 Feedvisor Study : 60,000 daily «flash wars» involving products OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx sold by Amazon 6

Digital behaviour increases the price transparency in all industries In comparison to other industries, direct traffic is low in the office supply industry, and prospects search product keywords

7 Digital behaviour increases the price transparency in all industries In comparison to other industries, direct traffic is low in the office supply industry, and prospects search product keywords (White paper, printer ) which lets the customer land on different players website and compare the price 50% - 70% 55% - 80% Organic search Product keywords Source : Similarweb, SEMRush OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 7

8 Countries Zoom: Price tracking on office supplies during one month Many office supply products cross category Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners project, anonymized data OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 8

9 Our findings on online pricing on that sample Price gaps can reach high levels (+50%/+80 ) Blind? Few price changes No price matching between industry players Observed few price changes compared to Amazon Are you prepared for Amazon? No clear link between price changes and competitor positioning Clear pricing identity? Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners project, anonymized data OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 9

April 2018 07 May 2018 14 May 2018 21 May 201 Date

10 Price gaps can reach high levels Blind? Price (Exc. VAT) April April May May May 201 Date Source : Simon Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher 10

11 Except Amazon, few price changes were observed # of price change (10 products) # of price change (10 products) Source : Simon Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher 11

VAT) 7 6 5 4 3 2-2 1 0 26 April 2018 03 May 2018 10

12 Are you prepared for Amazon? Amazon leading price wars? Price (Exc. VAT) April May May May May 2018 Date Source : Simon Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher 12

13 Dynamic pricing must remain driven by demand factors Price sensitivity change by segments SKP Project Example Example 1 : Premium Sales volume during 3 months : 720 Example 2 : Entry level product Sales volume during 3 months : 380 Price Volume Price Volume Mar Mar Apr May Apr Apr May-15 0 Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners Brick-and-Mortar Price Pure Player Price Daily sold volume (Moving average 7 days) OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 13

14 based on a definition of relevant competition Example Appliances: Retailers considered in the purchase decision, depending on the budget for a specific segment (% of respondents of budget range considered) < 500 > 500 Physical players 60% 15% Few buyers compare the «Physical network» leader with pure players in their purchase funnel, especially on higher prices Pure players 18% 6% Source : Etude-client Simon-Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 14

15 Leverage AI and strategy to define category roles then driving dynamic pricing rules Primary MUST-HAVE SUPREMACY Category role in customer baskets ADD-ON SPECIALTY Secondary Not differentiating Differentiating Ability to differentiate Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners - Country working sessions 15

16 Product-level pricing rules are also key Simon-Kucher study on prices applied for top 10 selling books (UK) Source: Simon-Kucher & Partners 16

17 Don t let the blind LEAD you! Classical approach to dynamic pricing Benchmark Margin Price definition Example of recommended process Margin Volume Conversion rate Benchmark Price definition Internal trigger for price adjustment External trigger? Implication: Is it useful to have dynamic prices? => Not always Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 17

18 Example Conceptual Example of an inventory level management 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Replenish Level 5 Discount Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 S0 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 S14 S15 S16 S17 S18 S19 S20 S21 S22 S23 S24 S25 S26 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 18

19 Don t let the blind READ you! 0.6 Price Predictable Time Introduction of uncertainty factor 0.6 Price vs. Unpredictable Time 0.6 Price Hit and Run Hit and Run to optimise balance between volume and margins Time Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 19

20 Online, customer behaviours could be extremely different this also applies in B2B Silver Surfer vs. Young User Source : Simon-Kucher & Partners OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 20

21 Even competitive at product level, online prices must consider Behavioural Pricing aspects Dropout rate after display of delivery fees 50% 45% 43% 40% 35% 30% 25% 38% 36% 30% 26% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Basket value Source : projet Simon-Kucher OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 21

of regretting his choice: Frequent and high price dynamic: Retail study

22 AI-based pricing must consider consumer experience Paradox of choice: Too many options and fluctuations, unclear positioning, confuse consumers Risk of regretting his choice: Frequent and high price dynamic: Retail study Amazon loose client preference due to price volatility OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 22

23 Outlook Our experience : 1. The more the shopper purchase online the less he is price sensitive 2. «Convenience» prevails on «deal search» OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 23

24 Conclusion «Don t let the blind LEAD you» Do not build your online pricing rules based only on competitors price Apply price changes on proven effects on your economics (margin, traffic with cross-sell, etc.) «Don t let the blind READ YOU» Be unpredictable Differentiate your approaches based on customer segments Even if dynamic pricing is more and more accepted, do not start without establishing your «price identity» OPI Simon-Kucher.pptx 24

Recovery, Recession, or the New Normal?

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