Rare earth market and applications. Industrial Minerals International Congress Prague,
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1 Rare earth market and applications Industrial Minerals International Congress Prague,
2 Outline General introduction to rare earth uses and market size Current vs historical rare earth prices From exploration, extraction and processing to industrial use Challenges for the industry: What are the geographies with economic opportunity?
3 The rare earth elements
4 Development of rare earth uses Source: Zepf, 2012, p. 32, using data based on Gschneider, 2011, and Gupta and Krishnamurthy, 2005
5 Applications containing rare earth elements (REE) Renewable energy technologies Mostly offshore applied direct drive wind turbines Hybrid vehicle batteries/catalysts/motor Digital and communication technology Flat panel displays, hard disc drives Transmission wires & mobile communication systems Medical and medicinal applications Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) Contrast agent in MRI Industry and military applications Permanent magnet motors Batteries Energy efficient lighting Fluorescent lamp (bulbs) LEDs Potential upcoming appliances Magnetic cooling Water purification (from toxics & phosphor) Source: Roskill, 2011; EURARE, 2012; EREAN Summer School 2014
6 Use of rare earth elements by various firms Source: amended from Tasman Metals.
7 Miniaturisation of technology Many pacemakers, for instance, use magnetic switches to control some functions and interference by other magnets such as used in jewellery could cause asynchronous pacing. Source: Rowlatt, J., 2014; Smith, 2006
8 Siemens gearless wind turbines Core of a five metre in diameter ring enclosing the axle. This ring is packed with cm long neodymium magnets laced with dysprosium, to reduce the risk of demagnetisation. Source: Rowlatt, J., 2014.
9 160,000 Total rare earth demand (t REO) Europe 4% US 3% Japan 14% China 75% ROW 4% 140, , , ,000 Europe 18% ROW 12% Japan 43% 110,000 80,000 USA 27% 60,000 40,000 20, ,000 30,000 20,000 5, Source: Kirk Othmer, 2005; and Kingsnorth, 2016; market demand share pie in 1995: Kirk Othmer, 2005; market demand share pie in the 2015 column derived from Adamas Intelligence, 2014
10 Rare earth market size (1/2) Est. global demand in 2015: 146, ,000 t REO Estimated USD value in 2015: 2 4 bn. Estimates for 2015 Total China ROW Demand 146, ,000 46,000 Supply 175, ,000 19,000 (illegal share) 45 55,000 Surplus 29,000 Source: Kingsnorth, 2016.
11 Rare earth market size (2/2) Share of illegal mining is estimated at 30 40% of total output in 2015 Europe 4% US 3% ROW 4% EU share of demand in 2014: 4 10% of global demand, corresponding to 4,000 12,500 t REO of annual demand Japan 14% China 75% Sources: EU share of demand (Adamas Intelligence, 2014; European Rare Earths Competency Network [ERECON], 2014; Polinares, 2012); pie chart adapted from Adamas Intelligence, 2014.
12 Total sectoral use of REEs in the EU (1/2) REEs using sector EU sectoral share t REE Auto catalysts 27% 3,337 Glass additives 19% 2,348 FC catalysts 16% 1,977 Others 7% 865 Batteries 6% 741 Ceramics 6% 741 Metallurgy 6% 741 Phosphors 6% 741 Magnets 4% 494 Polishing 3% 371 Total 100% 12,358 Nd, 932, 8% Pr, 366, 3% Y, 1116, 9% Ce, 6133, 50% Other, 94, 1% La, 3546, 29% La Ce Pr Nd Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Y Other Source: Machacek and Kalvig (2016) Assessing advanced rare earth element-bearing deposits for industrial demand in the EU in Resources Policy. Note: Sectoral share allocations (in %) are adopted from ERECON (2014), with an increase of the sectoral share of the category Others to 7% to reach a total of 100%.
13 Total sectoral use of REEs in the EU (2/2) 3,000 t REO 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Nd Pr Nd Pr Ce La Nd Y Pr Ce La Ce La Ce La Y Y Nd Pr Ce Ce Pr Ce Nd Pr La La La Nd Y Pr Ce La Y Nd Pr Ce La La Ce Pr Nd Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Yb Y Other elements Source: Machacek and Kalvig (2016) Assessing advanced rare earth element-bearing deposits for industrial demand in the EU in Resources Policy. Note: Sectoral share allocations (in %) are adopted from ERECON (2014), with an increase of the sectoral share of the category Others to 7% to reach a total of 100%.
14 Historical rare earth prices (1/3) Average yearly FOB China rare earth oxide prices. Source: adapted from Adamas Intelligence, Note the difference in scale on the y axis of the figures.
15 Historical rare earth prices (2/3) Eu oxide USD/kg 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,500 2,000 1, Source: Eu oxide USD/kg REO from Kingsnorth (2016) and 2016 (May) from Rare Earth News and Rare Earth Metal prices, INN (2016)
16 Historical rare earth prices (3/3) Prices (1998; 2016) of various REOs Price in USD/kg Terbium, 380 Dysprosium, 210 Europium, 110 Yttrium, 4.4 (lower value, 1998) (May 2016) Source: 1998 prices from Kirk-Othmer, 2005 and May 2016 from Rare Earth News and Rare Earth Metal prices, INN (2016)
17 Selected rare earth oxide and metal prices May 2016 (in USD/kg) Oxide Metal Dysprosium Yttrium Terbium Europium Source: Rare Earth News and Rare Earth Metal prices, INN (2016)
18 From exploration to mining, intermediate and final product: Filamentation in the global value chain & balancing problem Primary processing Intermediate processing Industrial end-uses Source: Machacek and Fold, 2014.
19 Chemical separation into individual rare earth products Sources: Image of Solvay s REE separation plant in La Rochelle (Rollat); schematic flowsheet for the extraction of REE from bastnäsite at Mountain Pass (Wall, 2014, p. 327)
20 Challenges for the industry (1/2) Gaining control to coordinate REE bearing mineral mining Baogang Group Minmetals CHINALCO Xiamen Tungsten Group Ganzhou Mining Group Guangdong Rising Nonferrous Group Source: Firm-groups - Chen Zhanheng, presentation at the rare earth conference in Sept. 2014, Chengdu, China (courtesy of Kingsnorth); image with Chinese Rare Earth Production Districts (Planned for Development in ) - Morrison et al., 2011.
21 Challenges for the industry (2/2) How to diversify supply amidst illegal mining? Source: Machacek and Fold, 2014.
22 Technological development to address the balance problem Most recent development: More heat tolerant, Ce containing aluminum alloys, developed at the US DoE s Oak Ride National Laboratory and partners (Science Daily, 2016) Y 8% Dy, Gd, Nd, Pr and other REO 7% La 39% Ce 46%
23 Geographies with economic opportunity REE permanent magnets for motors in industry, energy and transport Source: Wave Star Energy and Siemens 4MW and 5MW wind turbine test site, Aalborg, Denmark
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