PORTRAITS OF CANADA An analysis of the results of CRIC s national tracking poll

Transcription

1 PORTRAITS OF CANADA 2000 An analysis of the results of CRIC s national tracking poll November 27, 2000

2 Table of content Highlights 1 About 4 1. Health Care The Importance of a Good System of Medical Care 5 Which Level of Government Should Take the Lead in Reforming Health Care 6 Is There a Role for the Private Sector 6 2. Canada s Relationship with the United States 7 Free Movement Across the Border 7 3. Aboriginal Peoples 8 4. What Should be Done with the Surplus? Diversity and Duality 11 Immigration 11 Language The Electoral Process 13 Direct Democracy The Federation 18 Flexible Federalism 19 Priorities 20 Senate Reform 22 Which Level of Government is More Trusted? 23 Influence and Respect Support for Sovereignty in 25 The Referendum Vote 25 The Importance of Partnership 27 How Solid is the Support for Sovereignty and for Federalism? 29 Are ers Becoming more or Less Sovereignist 29 Consequences of Sovereignty 31 Sovereignty: An Idea whose Time has Passed? 32 The Inevitability of Sovereignty? 33 The Issue of Clarity 34 Preferred Options 34 Attitudes Towards 36 Summary 7. Identity 15 Willingness to Move? 16

3 Highlights There is evidence of growing satisfaction with the way the federation is working. There have been increases in the proportion of respondents from both inside and outside who said that the balance of power between the two levels of government is about right, and who agree that federalism is flexible. The proportion of respondents who said they trust both levels of government equally to protect the programs they care about has also increased. A majority of Canadians from all provinces agree that the best way to make the country work better is to increase cooperation between the federal and provincial governments, as opposed to changing the constitution or revising the distribution of powers. In the year 2000, many more Canadians (inside and outside ) say that relations between Aboriginal peoples and other Canadians are deteriorating, as compared to A majority of Canadians from outside, and a plurality from, say that governments in Canada have not gone far enough in trying to reach an understanding with Aboriginal peoples. ers were more likely than those in the other provinces to favour allowing privatelyowned companies to deliver some health care services. Canadians from different regions of the country are divided on the issue of what governments should do with possible budgetary surpluses. Support for the option of reducing taxes is much higher in than in any other province or region of the country. A majority of ers favour doing away with the customs and immigration check at the Canada-U.S. border. In Canada outside, a majority oppose free movement for Canadian and American citizens across the Canada-U.S. border. But a sizeable minority disagree. Canadians are less likely to consider moving to the United States to take a better job than they are to consider moving to another part of Canada. Ontarians stand out as being much less likely to say that the federal government has too much power, and are much more wary of their provincial government. Support for sovereignty has fallen slightly since the last CRIC poll in In a referendum on the same question as was used in 1995, the yes side would attract the support of only 35 % of decided voters (or 39 % once the remaining undecided voters are redistributed on a pro rata basis). The proportion of yes voters who said they have become less sovereignist since 1995 has increased over the past two years. 2

4 Support for sovereignty would fall if yes supporters were not certain that a partnership agreement with Canada would be negotiated after a yes vote and it would fall by a larger proportion than was the case last year. This suggests that the support for sovereignty has become slightly more conditional. Conversely, 1 in 4 no voters said they would vote yes if they thought that it was certain that a partnership agreement between and Canada would be reached after a sovereignist victory in a referendum. Such a shift in support would be enough to enable the yes side to win. This underlies the importance of voters perceptions about the viability of the partnership proposal. These date highlight the extent to which the separatists cause depends on the promise of partnership, and suggest that it is in the interests of federalists to forcefully challenge the separatist message about the likelihood of a partnership agreement being reached. (The survey also finds that a majority of ers and of Canadians outside said that it is inevitable that an economic partnership agreement with Canada would be negotiated after a yes vote.) Regardless of their referendum voting intentions, 48 % of ers remain personally favourable to the option of sovereignty-partnership for. The attitudes of Canadians outside towards that province have softened over the last two years. 98 % of ers, and 81 % of Canadians from outside, said that it is important for their children to learn a second language. 3

5 About the This report highlights the findings of an annual survey of public opinion in Canada conducted by the Centre for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC). The purpose of the survey is to track the how the attitudes of Canadians have evolved on a range of issues related to the nature and well-being of the country and its citizens. This is the fourth such survey that CRIC has conducted. Two surveys were conducted in 1998, one in the spring and one in the autumn. A third survey was conducted in the autumn of This report cites the findings of the surveys done in autumn 1998, autumn 1999, and autumn As in previous years, two separate surveys were conducted, one in and one in the rest of Canada. CROP surveyed 1001 people in between October 5 and October 23, 2000, while Environics Research Group surveyed 1018 people in the other nine provinces of Canada between October 10 and October 22, The results of surveys of this size have a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 3 %, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for smaller sub-samples within each survey are larger. For regional and provincial figures (other than ), the approximate margins of error are as follows: Atlantic Canada, +/- 9 %; Ontario, +/- 5.5 %; Manitoba and Saskatchewan (together), +/- 7 %; Alberta, +/- 8 %; Prairies, +/- 5.5 %; B.C., +/- 7.5 %. CRIC is the research and communications division of the Council of Canadian Unity. The Council is a national, non-partisan and non-profit organization established in 1964 with a mandate to increase Canadians understanding of their country through various means including research, communication, and exchanges among citizens. The Council s offices are located in Ottawa, City, Montreal, Toronto and Calgary, and its programs reach all parts of the country. To find out more about the Council, visit our website at 4

6 1. Health Care The Importance of a Good System of Medical Care Canadians are almost unanimous in agreeing that it is important for Canada to have a good system of medical care. 99 % of Canadians from outside, and 97 % of ers, said that it is either very or somewhat important for Canada to have a good system of medical care. Most Canadians also think that Canada is meeting this objective. In Canada outside, 64 % said that Canada is doing very or somewhat well in terms of having a good system of medical care, while 34 % said it is doing very or somewhat badly. ers are much less satisfied with a majority (54 %) saying that Canada is doing very or somewhat badly and 43 % saying it is doing very or somewhat well. The number of people in both and the rest of Canada who said that the country was doing either very well or very badly in having a good system of medical care was almost identical in 2000 as it was in 1998 the last time CRIC asked this question. Who is most satisfied or dissatisfied with Canada s performance in the area of health care? For respondents from the provinces outside, the results were as follows: Most Satisfied* Most Dissatisfied* 78 % ages 18 to % British Columbians 70 % men 44 % ages 45 to % Albertans 39 % Women 64 % average 34 % Average * percent of those who said Canada is doing very or somewhat well at having a good system of medical care. * percent of those who said Canada is doing very or somewhat badly at having a good system of medical care. As noted, ers as a whole are more dissatisfied with the country s performance in this area than their counterparts in the rest of Canada. women are particularly dissatisfied, with 61 % saying that Canada is doing very or somewhat badly. 5

7 Which Level Of Government Should Take The Lead In Reforming Health Care? Respondents were asked if the federal government should take the lead in reforming the health care system to ensure a national approach, or if the provincial governments should take the lead because the provinces actually run the health care system. In the provinces outside, almost one-half of respondents (49 %) preferred that the federal government take the lead but almost as many (44 %) said the provincial government should take the lead. The result was very different in, with 59 % saying that the provincial government should take the lead, and only 28 % saying that the federal government should take the lead. As many Albertans as ers think that the provincial governments should take the lead in health care reform. Is There A Role For The Private Sector? Respondents were asked whether they thought Canada should allow privately-owned companies to deliver some health care services, or whether instead the health care system should be operated entirely as a public program. At 47 %, respondents in were more likely than those in the other provinces to favour allowing privately-owned companies to deliver some health care services. 44 % of ers said that the system should be operated entirely as a public program. A majority of respondents (63 %) in Canada outside said that the health care system should be operated entirely as a public program. One-third of respondents favoured allowing private firms to deliver some services. The proportion of those favouring the option of allowing privately-owned companies to deliver some health care services was higher in than that in Alberta (37 %) or B.C. (41 %). In terms of whether privately-owned companies should be allowed to deliver some health care services, the views of Western Canadians are closer to the views of ers than they are to those of Ontarians or Atlantic Canadians. 6

8 In your opinion, should Canada allow privately-owned companies to deliver some health care services in Canada, or should the health care system be operated entirely as a public program? Allow private: Entirely public: 47 % 74 % Atlantic Canada 45 % Man / Sask 66 % Ontario 41 % B.C. 59 % Alberta 37 % Alberta 57 % B.C. 29 % Ontario 51 % Man / Sask 24 % Atlantic Canada 44 % 2. Canada s Relationship with the United States Do Canadians think that their country is becoming more like the United States? The answer is yes, at least as far as Canadians outside of are concerned. A majority (53 %) of respondents in the provinces outside said that over the last ten years, Canada has become more like the U.S., while 10 % said it has become less like the U.S. and one-third said there has been no change. These results closely resemble those given when this question was asked in In, only a third of respondents think that Canada has become more like the U.S. This is notably lower than the figure in 1998, when 43 % of ers said Canada had become more like the U.S. Looking ahead, 49 % of respondents from Canada outside, and 38 % of respondents from, would like to see the country become less like the U.S. Only 11 % of those from outside, and 17 % from, would like to see Canada become more like the U.S. There has been no change in the responses to this question since Free Movement Across the Border? To further explore attitudes about the relationship between the two countries, the survey asked whether or not citizens of either country should be allowed to move freely across the Canada-U.S. border, without having to report to a customs and immigration post. In Canada, a majority (56 %) opposed doing away with the customs and immigration check. But a sizeable minority (42 %) disagreed, supporting free movement across the border. 7

9 The opposite situation prevailed in, with a majority (52 %) favouring free movement for Canadian and American citizens across the border, and a sizeable minority (44 %) favouring the retaining of customs and immigrations checks. Within each of the two samples, the responses of the groups most, and least, favourable to free movement across the border are as follows: Do you think Canadian and American citizens should or should not be allowed to move freely across the Canada-US border - that is to say, without having to report to a Customs and Immigration post? Should be allowed: Should not be allowed: 60 % men () 64 % Prairies 59 % aged 55 and over () 63 % BC 58 % retired () 62 % age (outside ) 58 % Atlantic Canada 60 % women (outside ) 47 % men (outside ) 51 % age () 46 % Ontario 51 % women () 46 % aged 55 and over (outside ) 3. Aboriginal Peoples Many more Canadians in the year 2000 said that relations between Aboriginal peoples and other Canadians are deteriorating, as compared to At the same time, only 22 % of Canadians outside, and 14 % of ers, said that relations are improving. Do you think relations between Aboriginal peoples and other Canadians are improving, are deteriorating or are staying about the same? Improving Deteriorating Staying the Same Canada There has also been a decline since 1998 in the proportion of Canadians (outside ) who said that all or many of the land claims made by Aboriginal peoples are valid a drop from 51 % in 1998 to 43 % in Interestingly, in the opposite trend is visible: 41 % of ers now say 8

10 that all or many of the land claims made by Aboriginal peoples are valid, compared with 35 % in Chart 1: Proportion Saying that All or Many of the Land Claims Advanced by Aboriginal Peoples are Valid Canada outside Within Canada (outside ), there has been an important change in the last year. Whereas in 1999, 43 % of Atlantic Canadians felt that all or many Aboriginal land claims were valid, in 2000 only 31 % felt this way. Interestingly, given the importance of the land claims issue in B.C., the proportion of British Columbians agreeing that all or many land claims are valid was comparatively high in 2000, at 45 %. (These figures should be interpreted with some caution given the larger margins of error associated with regional and provincial samples. See About Portraits of Canada 2000 on page 4 of this report). How would Canadians like to see their governments approach the issues raised by Aboriginal peoples? A majority (55 %) of Canadians from outside, and a plurality (43 %) from, said that governments in Canada have not gone far enough in trying to reach an understanding with Aboriginal peoples. By comparison, 27 % of Canadians outside, and 31 % of ers, said that governments have gone too far. 9

11 Ontarians (64 %) and Atlantic Canadians (54 %) are more likely to say that governments have not gone far enough, while British Columbians (40 %) are more likely to say that governments have gone too far. But while most want governments to go further, a majority do not want them to go further down the road of according Aboriginal peoples special access to their traditional hunting and fishing grounds. In both and the other nine provinces (taken together), less than one-third said that some type of preferential access should be granted, while about two-thirds said that when governments regulate access to hunting and fishing grounds, they should treat everyone the same. A majority in every province supports equal treatment, with the figure being highest in Atlantic Canada (78 %). 4. What Should be Done with the Surplus? Respondents were asked the following question: if governments have budgetary surpluses, which of the following three things should be the highest priority: cutting taxes, paying down the debt, or putting more money into social programs? The answers show that Canadians from different regions of the country are divided on this issue. Support for cutting taxes is much higher in, at 37 %, than in any other province or region of the country. And in no other province or region, other than, is cutting taxes the preferred option. In Canada outside, the preferred option is paying down the debt. But the real support for this option comes from Alberta (50 %) and Ontario (47 %). By comparison, only 32 % of Atlantic Canadians favour this option. Atlantic Canada is the only region where putting more money into social programs is clearly the preferred option (44 %). These results are summarized in the following table: 10

12 If governments have budgetary surpluses, which of the following three things should be the highest priority? Cutting Taxes Paying Down the Debt More Money into Social Programs 37 % Ontario 47 % Atlantic Canada 44 % B.C. 30 % Prairies 46 % B.C. 35 % Prairies 27 % B.C. 34 % 33 % Ontario 23 % Atlantic Canada Atlantic Canada 32 % Ontario 30 % 21 % 28 % Prairies 27 % It is also notable that women are much less likely to support paying down the debt than are men, and are much more likely to support putting more money into social programs. About the same number of women as men favour spending the surplus on tax cuts. 5. Diversity and Duality Immigration Do most Canadians see the need for a change in the direction of the country s immigration policy? Not really: around one-half of respondents said that Canada should accept about the same number of immigrants as we do now. About one-third said we should accept fewer immigrants, and a little over 10 % said we should accept more. Do you think Canada should accept more immigrants, fewer immigrants, or about the same number as we accept now? More Fewer About the Same Canada Language Respondents were also asked whether they thought it was important for their children to learn a second language. 11

13 81 % of Canadians from outside said it was very or somewhat important. The importance of children learning a second language was even more strongly expressed by ers, where 98 % said it was very or somewhat important. Which language in addition to their mother tongue do Canadians wish their children to learn? Not surprisingly, a majority of Canadians said that the other of the two official languages is the one that is most important for their children to learn. But, whereas a language other than French or English is held to be the most important second language by only 3 % of ers, a non-official language is deemed to be the most important second language by 23 % of Canadians from outside that province. In Canada outside, the number choosing a language other than English or French as the most important second language for their children is highest in B.C. (43 %) and the Prairies (29 %), and lowest in Ontario (18 %) and Atlantic Canada (10 %). The number of those saying that a language other than French is the most important second language is much higher in B.C. than in Ontario. However, the actual proportion of Allophones in the two provinces, according to the 1996 census, is the same (see table, below). Which second language in particular do you think is important for your children to learn? * All other provs** Atlantic Canada Ontario Prairies BC French English Spanish Chinese Other Total non-official languages Population with a non-official language as mother tongue, in % (calculated from 1996 census) * Francophones only. The result for all language groups was: French = 11 %; English = 85 %; other = 3%.** Anglophones only. The result for the all languages groups was: French = 76 %; other = 23 %.This question was asked only to those said it was important for their children to learn a second language. The sample size for was 985, and for the rest of Canada it was

14 Respondents in were asked an additional question about whether they thought the French language in the province was threatened, and if so, why. A majority of ers (53 %) said that the French language in is threatened, while a significant minority (45 %) said it is not. These figures are virtually unchanged from % of yes supporters said the French language in is threatened. What specifically is seen as threatening the French language in? Respondents were asked about six different factors. The proportion saying each of these was a major threat to the French language in was as follows: Immigration 39 % American culture 36 % The English-speaking majority in Canada 36 % Globalization and other international forces 30 % Educational standards in or the system of education in general 26 % The federal government 19 % 6. The Electoral Process Respondents were surveyed in October, in the days leading up to the official start of the federal election campaign. In order to get a sense of whether Canadians felt that they were being presented with meaningful choices in the anticipated campaign, they were asked whether all the main parties running the in election are basically the same and whether it mattered who won the election. The proportion of respondents saying that the main parties are basically the same was much higher in (51 %) than in Canada outside (36 %). Only 39 % of ers said there were real differences between some of these parties, compared with 59 % of those from the other provinces. The result in could be considered a surprise, since it is in that province that one party the Bloc ois distinguishes itself from all others by its support of sovereignty. Interestingly enough, supporters of sovereignty and of the Bloc ois were no less likely than the average er to say that the main parties were basically the same. It is not clear whether this is because many ers where thinking only about the pan-canadian parties, and not the Bloc, when they were answering this question. 13

15 That being said, a majority of ers felt the question of who wins the election is important to them 64 % said it was very or somewhat important. In the other provinces, 81 % said it was very or somewhat important. Direct Democracy In recent years, some have suggested that the Canadian political system should be reformed to allow for greater public input in decision-making perhaps by means of citizen-initiated referendums. In order to measure support for the general principle of direct democracy, the survey asked respondents whether involving the general public more in decision-making on our big national problems would make the resolution of these problems more or less likely. ers are more supportive of involving the public, with 61 % saying it would make it more likely to solve our problems. Only 7 % said it would make it less likely to solve our problems, and 26 % said it would make no difference. Almost one-half (47 %) of Canadians from the other provinces agreed that more public involvement in decision-making would make it more likely to solve our big national problems. 19 % said it would make it less likely, and 31 % said it would make no difference. Chart 2: Views on Electoral Democracy Not very or not at all important who wins Parties basically the same Canada outside Public involvement helps solve problems 14

16 Questions: As you may know, a federal election is expected soon. Do you think that the main parties running in this election are basically the same, or do you believe that there are real differences between some of them? Is it very important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important to you who wins this election? If the general public was more involved in decisionmaking on our big national problems, do you think we would be more likely to solve our problems, less likely to solve our problems, or that it would make no difference? 7. Identity Canadians outside feel more profoundly attached to the country than to their province, while the reverse is true in. 81 % of Canadians outside said they strongly agreed that they feel profoundly attached to Canada, compared with 59 % who strongly agreed that they feel profoundly attached to their province. By contrast, 40 % of ers strongly agree that they feel profoundly attached to Canada, compared with 52 % who strongly agree that they feel strongly attached to. (On this question, the views of non-francophones in are closer to those of respondents from outside. It is the views of Francophone ers that are most distinct.) It is notable that while ers feel less profoundly attached to Canada than do other Canadians, they do not feel more profoundly attached to their province than other Canadians do (see Chart 3). Even Francophone ers feel somewhat less profoundly attached to their province than do Atlantic or Western Canadians. The proportion of ers who strongly agree that they feel profoundly attached to the province has fallen since 1998, from 64 % to 52 %. At the same time, the proportion who either strongly or somewhat agree has fallen by 5 percentage points over the same period. The drop among Francophone ers specifically is smaller but still noticeable. 15

17 Chart 3: Feel Profoundly Attached to Province? Somewhat agree Strongly agree Atlantic Ontario Man / Sask Alberta BC Respondents were also asked how they defined themselves: as a Canadian only; as a Canadian first but also a resident of their province; as equally a Canadian and a resident of their province; as a resident of their province first but also a Canadian, or as a resident of their province only. A majority (60 %) of Canadians from outside define themselves either as a Canadian only, or as a Canadian first but also a resident of their province. By contrast, only 25 % of ers define themselves this way. 44 % of ers define themselves as residents of their province first but also as Canadians, or as residents of their province only. By contrast, only 11 % of Canadians from outside the province define themselves this way. 13 % of ers define themselves as ers only. Willingness to Move? This year, the survey contained a new series of questions designed to shed more light on how Canadians feel about their country. The survey asked respondents whether they would be willing to consider moving to, to another part of Canada outside of, or to the United States in order to take a job that is better than the one they have now (respondents from were asked 16

18 only whether they would be willing to move to another part of Canada or to the United States). The results showed that: A move to a province other than is a significantly more attractive proposition to Canadians from outside than is a move to the province of. ers were more willing to consider a move to another province than residents of other provinces were to consider a move to. A move to the U.S. is a less attractive prospect for all Canadians than a move to another part of Canada. Chart 4: Willingness to Consider Moving to Take a Better Job Canada outside To To Canada (outside ) To USA Within each sample, who is most willing to consider a move? Not surprisingly, young people and those with a university education were more likely to consider moving. For instance, in Canada outside, 61 % of 18 to 24 year olds, and 44 % of university-educated respondents, were very or somewhat likely to consider a move to the U.S. (this compares with the average for all respondents of 37 %). Men were somewhat more likely to consider a move than were women. Regionally, Atlantic Canadians were the most likely to be willing to consider a move to another part of Canada (including ), but were the least likely to be willing to consider a move to the U.S. British Columbians were the most likely to be willing to consider a move to the U.S. 17

19 8. The Federation The survey asked a number of questions about the functioning of the federation and the division of powers between the two levels of government. More Canadians said that the provinces have been gaining powers vis-à-vis the federal government, than said the reverse. Specifically, 32 % of Canadians outside said that over the years there has been a decentralization of powers to the provincial governments, compared with 16 % who said there has been a centralization of powers to the federal government. A plurality (43 %) said there has been no change. The views of ers on this question are similar, with 18 % saying there has been a centralization of powers, 25 % saying there has been a decentralization, and 44 % saying there has been no change. For both ers and other Canadians, the proportion saying that there has been a centralization of powers was slightly higher in 2000 than it was in Does this mean that Canadians feel that one or the other level of government has too much power? On the whole, the answer is no. A majority of Canadians outside (52 %) and a plurality of ers (43 %) said that the balance of power between the two levels of government is about right. This represents an increase from 1999, when the figures were 46 % and 37 % respectively. At the same time, 29 % of Canadians outside and 39 % of ers said the federal government has too much power. Yes supporters in are much more likely to say that the federal government has too much power. But even among this group the proportion who said the balance of power between the two levels of government is about right increased between 1999 and Ontarians stand out as being much less likely to say that the federal government has too much power, and are much more wary of their provincial government (see Chart 5). 18

20 Chart 5: The Balance of Power Feds too much power Provs too much power Balance about right Atlantic Ontario Man/Sask Alberta BC Flexible Federalism Compared with last year, more Canadians and in particular, more ers now see Canadian federalism as something that is flexible and helps Canada adapt to changing circumstances. In 2000, 55 % of ers strongly or somewhat agreed with this statement about federalism. This is an 7 point increase from % of Canadians outside also agreed with this statement, up slightly from 67 % in Similarly, there has been a decrease the number of Canadians (including those from ) who agree with the statement that the federal government has become virtually irrelevant to me. 30 % of Canadians outside, and 28 % of ers, either strongly or somewhat agreed with this statement a drop of 5 and 6 points respectively. It is notable that, not only are the views of ers and other Canadians comparable on this question, there is also no significant variation in the results among the other nine provinces. 19

21 Chart 6: Views on Federalism Federalism flexible - Canada outside Federalism flexible - Feds irrelevant - Canada outside Feds irrelevant - Question: Under the Canadian federal system, the federal government has responsibility for some areas and the provincial governments have responsibility for others. I am going to read you two statements about the Canadian federal system. For each one, please tell me whether you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree: a) Federalism is flexible and helps Canada adapt to changing circumstances. b) The federal government has become virtually irrelevant to me. Priorities What do Canadians say is the best way to improve how the country works? The survey asked respondents to say whether each of four options was a high, medium, or low priority. The option favoured by most Canadians from both inside and outside is that of increasing cooperation between the federal and provincial governments. Support for this option has remained unchanged over the past three years. After that, however, the priorities of ers and Canadians from outside the province diverge. 46 % of ers, compared with only 13 % of Canadians from other provinces, see the constitutional recognition of the unique character of as a high priority. The figure 20

22 for ers is higher than it was in 1999 (36 %) but about the same as it was in 1998 (47%). 45 % of ers, compared with 28 % of Canadians from other provinces, said that changing the distribution of powers within the federation is a high priority. When it comes to helping the country work better, please tell me if you think each of the following should be a high priority, a medium priority or a low priority. Increasing cooperation between the federal and provincial governments Making changes to the Canadian Senate Changing the distribution of powers between the federal government and the provinces Changing the Canadian constitution to recognize the unique character of High Priority Medium Priority Low Priority Canada outside Canada outside Canada outside

23 Chart 7: How to Make the Country Work Better? Canada (outside ) More fed-prov cooperation Changes to senate Changes to dist. Of powers Rec. QC's unique character This chart shows the proportion of respondents who said that each of the following options was a high priority. Senate Reform Slightly less than 40 % of those from both inside and outside said that Senate reform is a high priority. When asked a specific question about what to do with the Senate should it be reformed, abolished, or left as it is the lack of a national consensus is evident. The most favoured option in, Manitoba and Saskatchewan is abolition. In Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Alberta and B.C., the preferred option is Senate reform. Overall, 41 % of Canadians from outside favoured senate reform. 22

24 Chart 8: What to do With the Senate? Atlantic Ontario Man/Sask Alberta BC 10 Reform Abolish Leave as is Which Level of Government is More Trusted? The survey asked respondents which level of government they trust more to protect the programs they care about: the federal government or the government of their province? The results reveal some notable, and perhaps surprising, differences among the different regions and provinces of Canada. Overall there is not a great difference between the proportion of ers and the proportion of those from the other provinces who have more trust in their provincial government. The figures are 27 % for and 28 % for the other provinces. However, there is great variation among the other nine provinces. For instance, 45 % of Albertans have more trust in their provincial government, compared with 23 % of Ontarians. It is notable that ers are less likely to have more trust in their provincial government than are respondents from all three Prairie provinces. ers, in fact, are more likely than respondents from any other province to say they trust both levels of government equally (36 %). Atlantic Canadians are the most likely to say they have more trust in the federal government (22 %). Trust in the federal government is lower in the Prairie provinces than in. 23

25 British Columbians are most likely to say they have trust in neither level of government (29%). This survey question has been asked by CRIC in each of the past three years. Between 1998 and 1999, a movement in attitudes was observed in the provinces outside, with more people trusting their provincial governments and fewer trusting both levels of government equally. The proportion of respondents trusting their provincial governments held steady between 1999 and However, another shift has taken place in the past year, away from trusting neither level of government (a 10 point drop) and toward trusting both levels of government equally (an 11 point gain). One possible explanation for this is that it reflects the public s satisfaction with the ability of the First Ministers to arrive at an agreement on health care funding in the month prior to the survey. Which government do you trust more to protect the programs you care about? Federal government Provincial government Both equally Neither Survey Year Canada outside Atlantic Canada Ontario Prairies BC n.a n.a n.a n.a. 44 Influence and Respect Do Canadians feel their province is treated with the respect it deserves in Canada? Albertans and Ontarians do, but others do not. 24

26 In your opinion, is your province treated with the respect it deserves in Canada, or not? YES NO Ontario 77 % Atlantic Canada 58 % Alberta 52 % BC 58 % Man / Sask 47 % 51 % 43 % Man / Sask 51 % BC 40 % Alberta 45 % Atlantic Canada 40 % Ontario 21 % Atlantic Canadians and British Columbians are least likely to say their region is treated with respect. In fact, a majority of those in Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan, and B.C. also said their region is not treated with enough respect. 51 % of ers also said their region is not treated with the respect it deserves. (43 % said it is treated with the respect it deserves a slight 4-point increase since 1999.) The survey also asked Canadians outside whether or not they thought their region s influence on important national decisions is increasing. Most respondents in all provinces felt their province s influence was staying about the same. Respondents in Atlantic Canada were more concerned about their province s influence: 28 % said that their province s influence was decreasing, while 11 % said it was increasing. Respondents from Saskatchewan were also more likely to say their province s influence is decreasing than increasing. Respondents from Ontario are most confident, with only 7 % saying their province s influence is decreasing. 32 % said it is increasing. 9. Support for Sovereignty in The Referendum Vote Support for sovereignty among ers has declined over the past year In a referendum on the same question as that posed in 1995 (that is, on sovereignty combined with an offer of a partnership with Canada), 33 % of decided respondents would vote yes. Among those decided or leaning one way or the other, support for sovereignty is at 35 %. After redistributing on a pro rata basis the remaining undecided respondents and respondents who do not give an answer, support for the yes side reaches 39 %. This represents a 5 point drop from the level of support for sovereignty in

27 When this result is factored into an average of a larger number of recent polls conducted on this question, it shows that support for sovereignty has fallen since the immediate post-referendum period and remained stable at 42 percent since 1998 (see Chart 9). Chart 9: Support for Sovereignty (% Yes Vote) Yes to Sovereignty- Partnership (Average of Several Polls) Result from CRIC (Jan- Oct) This chart takes into account the responses of decided voters and voters who are leaning towards voting yes, with the responses of the remaining undecided voters and voters who give no response redistributed on a pro rata basis. Number of polls for each year: ; ; ; ; The CRIC result is included in the average result for When asked how they would vote in a referendum on whether should remain a province of Canada, only 22 of decided respondents would vote no. 68 % would vote yes an 8 point increase since % were undecided, would not vote, or would not give an answer. When asked how they would vote in a referendum on whether should become a country completely independent from Canada, 25 % said they would vote yes, 66 % would vote no, and 9 % were undecided, would not vote, or would not give an answer. These figures resemble those derived from a similar question asked in earlier years. Who is most supportive of sovereignty, and who is least supportive? Some answers to this question are shown below: 26

28 Most Sovereignist* Least Sovereignist** 54 % students 82 % non-francophones 41 % aged 35 to % Western portion of greater Montreal 40 % Francophones 64 % retired persons 39 % men 63 % aged % average 55 % average * % who would vote yes to the same referendum questions as was asked in (results for decided voters and voters leaning in one direction). ** who would vote no to the same referendum questions as was asked in 1995 (results for decided voters and voters leaning in one direction). Some additional notes: Young people are not the most sovereignist. While they appear to be more sovereignist than their grandparents, they seem less so than their parents. This represents a change from 1999 when year olds were found to be the most sovereignist. (However, the larger margins of error associated with the age group sub-samples means that these results should be treated with caution and subjected to further study.) Women are less likely than men to vote yes, but they are not conversely more likely to vote no. This is explained by the fact that 19 % of women are undecided or do not give an answer, compared to 7 % of men. The Importance of Partnership Support for sovereignty would fall if yes supporters were not certain that such a agreement would be negotiated under these conditions, about 31 % of yes supporters would vote no. This represents a 6 point increase since 1999, indicating that the support for sovereignty may have become slightly more conditional over the past year. Conversely, support for sovereignty would increase if no supporters were certain that there would be a partnership agreement between and Canada under these conditions, about one in four no supporters would vote yes. This would raise the overall yes vote in a referendum to almost 50 %. If the remaining undecided voters are redistributed on a 27

29 pro rata basis to the yes and no sides, the final yes vote (58 %) easily crosses the threshold of 50 % +1 (see Chart 10) Chart 10: Possible Outcomes to Hypothetical Referendum Questions 60 Do Not Stay a Province of Canada 58 Independent Country Sovereignty-Partnership (Decided and Leanings) Sovereignty-Partnership (Dec. & Lean. + Redist.) Assured Partnership (Decided and Leanings) Assured Partnership (Dec. & Lean. + Redist.) Evidently, the issue of whether or not voters feel certain that there would be a partnership agreement between and Canada after a yes vote has tremendous bearing on the outcome of any future referendum. The survey accordingly asked the following question: If voted in favour of sovereignty, do you think it is inevitable that an economic partnership with the rest of Canada would be negotiated, or do you think that such a partnership might not be negotiated? A second question asked whether a political partnership was inevitable. A majority of ers (58 %) said that it is inevitable that an economic partnership agreement with Canada would be negotiated after a yes vote. This figure is higher than it was in 1999 (50 %) and 1998 (54 %). In 2000, even a majority of no supporters said an economic partnership would inevitably be negotiated after a vote for sovereignty. This question was also asked of Canadians outside, with similar results. 54 % said an agreement on economic partnership would inevitably be negotiated. 28

30 In the case of a political partnership agreement, 44 % of ers saw this as inevitable, while 41 % said it might not be negotiated. Fewer respondents in the rest of Canada (37 %) said that it was inevitable that such an agreement would be negotiated. There is a remarkable difference in the views of men and women on this question. 66 % of men (compared with 51 % of women) see an economic partnership agreement as inevitable, while 50 % of men (compared with 38 % of women) see a political partnership agreement as inevitable. Women were more likely to be undecided or to decline to give an answer. How Solid is the Support for Sovereignty and for Federalism? 66 % of yes supporters and 75 % of no supporters said that their voting intention is completely or quite firm. Both of these figures are lower than was reported in the 1998 and 1999 surveys. Young people are especially likely to say that their voting intention could change: 45 % of those aged between 18 and 24 said it could change, compared with an average for all age groups of 28 %. Are ers Becoming More or Less Sovereignist? Have ers become more or less sovereignist or federalist since they voted in the 1995 referendum? This year s results shows an important change when compared with the results from 1999 or Specifically, the proportion of yes voters who say they have become less sovereignist since 1995 was 29 %. This represents a 5 point increase since 1999 and a 10 point increase since The majority of both yes and no voters reported that their opinion on sovereignty has not changed since

31 Chart 11: More or Less Sovereignist Since 1995? (Yes voters Only) More sovereigntist Less sovereigntist Since the referendum on sovereignty in 1995, would you say that you have become more sovereignist / federalist, less sovereignist / federalist, or would you say that your opinion on sovereignty has not changed?* More sov tist Less sov tist No change More fed list Less fed list No change Yes voters No voters Yes voters No voters Yes voters No voters * Those who reported voting yes in 1995 were asked whether they had become more or less sovereignist. Those who reported voting no in 1995 were asked whether they had become more or less federalist. Sample sizes: for yes voters, n = 354; for no voters, n =

32 Consequences of Sovereignty In only one of four domains that of the protection of s culture do a majority of ers (54 %) think that conditions will be better if were to become sovereign. The domain in which ers are most likely to think conditions will become worse is that of the province s economic performance. However, less than 2 out of every 5 think that the province will do worse economically. These results are essentially unchanged from those of a year ago. If became an independent / sovereignty country, would each of the following conditions be better, worse, or neither better nor worse that if stayed in Canada?* Better Worse Neither The protection of s culture The protection of the model s economic performance s ability to meet the challenges of globalization * One half of the sample was asked the question using the words independent country, and one-half were asked the question using the words sovereign country. This table shows the combined total responses. The variation of the question wording had only a minor effect on the responses. When asked a separate question about the short-term economic consequences of independence, ers seem more apprehensive. 58 % said that if became an independent country, the economic situation in the province in the first year or two would be somewhat or much worse than if remained part of Canada. But when asked about the economic situation in the long run (say, 5 to 10 years), only 32 % said it will be somewhat or much worse. 37 % said it would be better. These results are generally unchanged from Young people are more optimistic than older people: 46 % of those between the ages of 18 and 24 think that economic conditions would improve over the longer term after independence, compared with 27 % of those over the age of

33 Men are more optimistic than women: 41 % of men said that in the long run economic conditions will be much or somewhat better after independence, compared with 33 % of women. On the question of whether one of the consequences of a vote for sovereignty might be the partition of, the survey asked the following question: If becomes an independent country, do you believe that some regions of should or should not be able to remain in Canada if a large majority of their population voted to do so? Almost one-half of ers (48 %) said that some regions of should be allowed to stay in Canada, compared with 38 % who said that this should not be allowed. Support for allowing partition is somewhat higher than the figure from 1999 (42 %). Canadians outside of were more strongly in favour of partition: 66 % said that some regions of should be allowed to stay in Canada. Sovereignty: An Idea whose Time has Passed? This year, in order to go beyond a consideration of how people would vote in a referendum, the survey also asked respondents a series a questions about how they view the idea of sovereignty. Respondents were asked whether they felt that they had any reservations towards the sovereignty or the independence of. 47 % said they had many or some reservations. An additional 21 % had only a few reservations. Only 21 % had no reservations at all (this last figure closely resembles the proportion of those who would vote yes to a referendum, not on sovereignty-partnership, but on whether should become an independent country.) 24 % of yes supporters had many or some reservations about sovereignty or independence, compared with 64 % of no supporters. Conversely 11 % of no supporters had no reservations at all about sovereignty or independence, compared with 40 % of yes supporters. Among the different age groups, young people were least likely to have many reservations and most likely to have no reservations at all. The opposite was true of older persons (see Chart 12). 32