Capacity Building Workshop on Small Hydro Power Project Development

Transcription

1 Capacity Building Workshop on Small Hydro Power Project Development April 17, 2012 Monrovia (Liberia) 1 Assessment of Micro Hydro Potential in Sub- Saharan Africa Countries: Mali, Togo & Benin M Gbra N Guessan VP Africa, Econoler

2 Small Hydro Project Analysis Using RETScreen Small Hydro Site: Akloa (Togo) Photo Credit: M Gbra N Guessan, Econoler

3 RETScreen Small Hydro Project Model Worldwide analysis of energy production, life-cycle costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions Central-grid and isolated-grid Single turbine micro hydro to multi-turbine small hydro Formula costing method 3

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5 SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA REGIONAL MINI/MICRO HYDRO PROJECT A regional project initiated by UNDP with the support of 11 SSA Governments Funding Source: Global Environment Facility Sub-Saharan Africa divided into 3 clusters: Cluster 1: West Africa (Benin, Mali and Togo) Cluster 2: Central Africa (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon) Cluster 3: Eastern Africa (Burundi, Congo; DR Congo; Rwanda) 5 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

6 6 PURPOSE OF PROJECT BRIEFS 3 Project Briefs (1 per cluster) have been prepared for submission to UNDP-GEF for project funding Each Project Brief lays out: Energy policies and rural electrification strategy of each country Legal and institutional framework Government strategy for micro/mini hydro power system development Baseline activity and GEF alternative course of action Proposed project financing and incremental costs

7 OVERALL PROJECT SCHEDULE Approval for Pipeline Entry by GEF Secretariat Preparatory Assistance Phase 1st Steering Committee e Meeting in Douala Project Briefs Validation 2nd Steering Committee Meeting in Vienna Project Briefs Submitted for Review by GEF GEF Approval of Full-Size Project April 2004 May 2004 February 2005 April 2005 July-Nov 2005 End of

8 FULL-SIZE PROJECT COMPONENTS 1. Identification of mini/micro hydro sites 2. Identification and removal of barriers to the adoption of micro/mini hydropower technologies 3. Capacity building and technical assistance for the deployment of micro hydroelectric plants 4. Dissemination of project outcomes 5. Project monitoring and evaluation (M&E) 6. Deployment of micro/mini hydropower plants on a turnkey basis 7. Systems management/ financing schemes/ ownership structure and plant operation 8

9 FINDINGS OF CONSULTANT REPORTS 1. Improved rural access to electricity is a means of improving quality of life and socio-economic development. 2. Participating countries are at various stages of introducing legal and regulatory reforms to liberalize the energy sector. 3. Some countries have gone further in formulating rural electrification policies and strategies that clearly identify actions to be taken to attract much needed investments. 4. All countries offer good to strong candidates for micro hydro deployment, but the technical, financial and/or managerial resources are often lacking. 5. National institutional partners and NGOs/multilateral donors, can provide much needed capacity building and leverage investment capital for identified projects 9

10 CLUSTER 1 SUMMARY FINDINGS Benin and Mali have both made progress in introducing sectoral reforms and establishing dedicated rural electrification agencies. Mali has been the most proactive in developing incentive mechanisms to attract investors, but the financial resource remain limited. Given the uneven water situation in Cluster 1 countries, the technical team conducted detailed technical and financial analysis for each site. 10

11 Proposed Micro-Hydro Configurations Cluster 1 Configurations kw (cost US$300,000) kw (cost US$400,000) kw (cost US$600,000) TOTAL # Systems Benin Mali Togo Total 3 Countries TOTAL kw 750 kw 850 kw 650 kw 2,250 kw TOTAL COST US$2.7 million US$3.3 million US$2.3 million US$8.3 million 11

12 SMALL HYDRO PRE-FEASIBILITY We used RETScreen Model for Cost Analysis High initial costs But civil works and equipment can last >50 years Very low operating and maintenance costs One part-time operator is usually sufficient Periodic maintenance of major equipment requires outside contractor High head developments tend to be less costly Typical range: US$1,000 to US$5,000 per installed kw 12 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

13 SMALL HYDRO PROJECT ANALYSIS Four phases for engineering work: Reconnaissance surveys/hydrology studies Pre-feasibility study Feasibility study System planning and project engineering Photo Credit: M Gbra N Guessan 13 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

14 RETSCREEN SMALL HYDRO ENERGY CALCULATION Flow duration curve Power duration curve Calculation of turbine efficiency curve Calculation of plant capacity See e-textbook Renewable Energy Project Analysis: RETScreen Engineering and Cases Small Hydro Project Analysis (Chapter 3) Calculation of power duration curve Calculation of energy available Calculation of energy delivered (central grid) Calculation of energy delivered (isolated grid) 14 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

15 USING RETSCREEN MODEL FOR A CASE STUDY Clean Energy Project Analysis Software Small Hydro Project Model Click Here to Start Description & Flow Chart Colour Coding Online Manual Worksheets Energy Model Hydrology & Load Equipment Data Cost Analysis Greenhouse Gas Analysis Financial Summary Clean Energy Decision Support Centre Training & Support Internet Forums Marketplace Case Studies e-textbook Features Product Data Weather Data Cost Data Unit Options Currency Options CDM / JI Project Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Version 3.0 Minister of Natural Resources Canada Partners NRCan/CETC - Varennes 15

16 DEFINITION OF ENERGY MODEL RETScreen Energy Model - Small Hydro Project Training & Support Units: Metric Site Conditions Estimate Notes/Range Project name Wonougba See Online Manual Project location Rivière Sio, région Kpalimé, Togo Latitude of project location N 6, to Longitude of project location E 6, to Gross head m 8,00 Maximum tailwater effect m 0,80 Residual flow m³/s 0,20 Complete Hydrology & Load sheet Firm flow m³/s 0,51 Peak load kw 55 Energy demand MWh 332 System Characteristics Estimate Notes/Range Grid type - Isolated-grid Design flow m³/s 1,000 Turbine type - Kaplan Complete Equipment Data sheet Number of turbines turbine 1 Turbine peak efficiency % 87,6% Turbine efficiency at design flow % 87,2% Maximum hydraulic losses % 7% 2% to 7% Generator efficiency % 93% 93% to 97% Transformer losses % 1% 1% to 2% Parasitic electricity losses % 2% 1% to 3% Annual downtime losses % 4% 2% to 7% 16

17 RETSCREEN - HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS RETScreen Hydrology Analysis and Load Calculation - Small Hydro Project Hydrology Analysis Estimate Project type Run-of-river Hydrology method User-defined Hydrology Parameters Residual flow m³/s 0,2 Percent time firm flow available % 50% Firm flow m³/s 0,51 Notes/Range 90% to 100% Flow-Duration Curve Data Time Flow (%) (m³/s) 0% 11,07 5% 9,57 10% 7,94 15% 5,97 20% 4,33 25% 2,82 30% 2,70 35% 2,39 40% 1,48 45% 1,03 50% 0,71 55% 0,65 60% 0,54 65% 0,42 70% 0,35 75% 0,31 80% 0,28 85% 0,27 90% 0,24 95% 0,20 100% 0,15 Flow (m³/s) 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 Flow-Duration Curve Percent Time Flow Equalled or Exceeded (%) 17

18 ESTIMATE LOAD CHARACTERISTICS Load Characteristics Estimate Grid type Isolated-grid Load Conditions Load-duration curve User-defined Peak load kw 55 Notes/Range Load-Duration Curve Data Time Load (%) (kw) 0% 55 5% 47 10% 46 15% 45 20% 45 25% 44 30% 43 35% 42 40% 40 45% 39 50% 38 55% 37 60% 36 65% 35 70% 33 75% 32 80% 31 85% 30 90% 29 95% % 23 Load (kw) Load-Duration Curve Percent Time Load Equalled of Exceeded (%) Annual Daily Energy demand MWh 332 0,9 Average load factor % 69% 69% 18

19 ESTIMATE ANNUAL ENERGY PRODUCTION Annual Energy Production Estimate Notes/Range Small hydro plant capacity kw 57 MW 0,057 Small hydro plant firm capacity kw 31 Available flow adjustment factor - 1,00 Small hydro plant capacity factor % 51% 40% to 95% Renewable energy available MWh 257 Renewable energy delivered MWh 187 GJ 673 Excess RE available MWh 70 Flow-Duration and Power Curves 12,000 Available Flow Flow Used Available Power 70 10, Flow (m³/s) 8,000 6, Power (kw) 4, , , Percent Time Flow Equalled or Exceeded (%) Complete Cost Analysis sheet 19

20 RETSCREEN SMALL HYDRO SELECTION OF EQUIPMENT Turbine efficiency 100% Compared with manufacturer s data for 80% an installed 6 MW GEC 60% Alsthom Francis turbine 40% Plant capacity & output Compared with HydrA for a Scottish site Effici iency (%) 20% All results within 6.5% Formula costing method 0% RETScreen Manufacturer Turbine Efficiency Curves: RETScreen vs. Manufacturer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percent of Rated Flow Compared with RETScreen, with 11% of a detailed cost estimate for a 6 MW project in Newfoundland 20 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

21 Small Hydro Turbine Characteristics Estimate Notes/Range Gross head m 8,00 Design flow m³/s 1,000 Turbine type - Kaplan See Product Database Turbine efficiency curve data source - Standard Number of turbines turbine 1 Small hydro turbine manufacturer ABC ltée Small hydro turbine model modèle XYZ Turbine manufacture/design coefficient - 4,5 2.8 to 6.1; Default = 4.5 Efficiency adjustment % 0% -5% to 5% Turbine peak efficiency % 87,6% Flow at peak efficiency m³/s 0,8 Turbine efficiency at design flow % 87,2% Turbine Efficiency Curve Data Flow Turbine Turbines Combined efficiency running turbine (%) # efficiency 0% 0,00 0 0,00 5% 0,00 1 0,00 10% 0,00 1 0,00 15% 0,07 1 0,07 20% 0,40 1 0,40 25% 0,61 1 0,61 30% 0,73 1 0,73 35% 0,81 1 0,81 40% 0,84 1 0,84 45% 0,86 1 0,86 50% 0,87 1 0,87 55% 0,87 1 0,87 60% 0,88 1 0,88 65% 0,88 1 0,88 70% 0,88 1 0,88 75% 0,88 1 0,88 80% 0,88 1 0,88 85% 0,88 1 0,88 90% 0,88 1 0,88 95% 0,87 1 0,87 100% 0,87 1 0,87 Efficiency 1,00 0,90 0,80 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,40 0,30 0,20 0,10 0,00 Efficiency Curve - 1 Turbine(s) Percent of Rated Flow (%) 21

22 COST ESTIMATE INPUT PARAMETERS RETScreen Cost Analysis - Small Hydro Project Search Marketplace Costing method: Formula Currency: Togo XOF Cost references: None Second currency: USA USD Rate: XOF/USD 1,47730 Formula Costing Method Notes/Range Input Parameters Project country Togo Local vs. Canadian equipment costs ratio - 1,10 Local vs. Canadian fuel costs ratio - 1,25 Local vs. Canadian labour costs ratio - 0,50 Equipment manufacture cost coefficient - 0, to 1.00 Exchange rate XOF/CAD 400,00 Cold climate? yes/no No Number of turbines turbine 1 Flow per turbine m³/s 1,0 Approx. turbine runner diameter (per unit) m 0,5 Project classification: Suggested classification - Mini Selected classification - Micro Existing dam? yes/no No New dam crest length m 10,0 Maximum hydraulic losses % 7% Intake and miscellaneous losses % 1% 1% to 5% Access road required? yes/no Yes Length km 3,0 Tote road only? yes/no Yes Difficulty of terrain - 1,0 1.0 to 6.0 Canal required? yes/no Yes Length in rock m 280 Terrain side slope in rock (average) o 20 Max. 45º Length in impervious soil m 0 Terrain side slope in soil (average) o 0 Max. 15º Total canal headloss m 0,28 Penstock required? yes/no Yes Length m 70,0 Number of identical penstocks penstock 1 Allowable penstock headloss factor % 3,0% 1.0% to 4.0% Pipe diameter m 0,84 Average pipe wall thickness mm 6,8 Transmission line Length km 1,5 Difficulty of terrain - 1,0 1.0 to 2.0 Voltage kv 25,0 Interest rate % 0,5% 22 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

23 INITIAL COSTS / ANNUAL COSTS ESTIMATE Initial Costs (Formula Method) (local currency) Factor (local currency) Relative Costs Feasibility Study XOF ,00 XOF ,2% 0% USD - Development XOF ,00 XOF ,5% 0% USD - Land rights XOF - 0,0% 0% USD - Development Sub-total: XOF ,5% 0% USD - Engineering XOF ,00 XOF ,7% 0% USD - Energy Equipment XOF ,00 XOF ,9% 100% USD Balance of Plant Access road XOF ,00 XOF ,4% 0% USD - Transmission line XOF ,00 XOF ,5% 100% USD Substation and transformer XOF ,00 XOF ,2% 100% USD Penstock XOF ,00 XOF ,3% 100% USD Canal XOF ,00 XOF ,1% 100% USD Tunnel XOF - 1,00 XOF - 0,0% 100% USD - Civil works (other) XOF ,00 XOF ,6% 0% USD - Balance of Plant Sub-total: XOF XOF ,1% 49% USD Miscellaneous XOF ,50 XOF ,6% 0% USD - GHG baseline study and MP Cost XOF - XOF - 0,0% 100% USD - GHG validation and registration Cost XOF - XOF - 0,0% 100% USD - Miscellaneous Sub-total: XOF ,6% 0% USD - Initial Costs - Total (Formula Method) XOF XOF ,0% 59% USD Annual Costs (Credits) Unit Quantity Unit Cost Amount Relative Costs Quantity Range Unit Cost Range O&M Land lease project 1 XOF - XOF Property taxes % 0,0% XOF XOF Water rental kw 57 XOF - XOF Insurance premium % 0,40% XOF XOF Transmission line maintenance % 5,0% XOF XOF Spare parts % 0,50% XOF XOF O&M labour p-yr 2,00 XOF XOF GHG monitoring and verification project 0 XOF - XOF Travel and accommodation p-trip 4 XOF XOF General and administrative % 10% XOF XOF Other - O&M Cost 0 XOF - XOF Contingencies % 10% XOF XOF Annual Costs - Total XOF ,0% Periodic Costs (Credits) Period Unit Cost Amount Interval Range Unit Cost Range Turbine overhaul Cost 35 yr XOF XOF XOF XOF End of project life Credit - XOF - XOF - Go to GHG Analysis sheet 23 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

24 24 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

25 RETSCREEN SMALL HYDRO PROJECT MODEL FINANCIAL SUMMARY R E T S c r e e n F in a n c ia l S u m m a r y - S m a ll H y d r o P r o je c t A n n u a l E n e r g y B a la n c e Y e a r ly C a s h F lo w s Y e a r P r e -ta x A fte r -ta x C u m u la tiv e P ro je c t n a m e W o n o u g b a P e a k lo a d k W 5 5 # X O F X O F X O F P ro je c t lo c a tio n riv iè re S io, ré g io n K p a lim é, T o g o E n e rg y d e m a n d M W h ( ) ( ) ( ) R e n e w a b le e n e rg y d e liv e re d M W h N e t G H G re d u c tio n t C O 2 /y r ( ) E x c e s s R E a v a ila b le M W h 7 0 N e t G H G re d u c tio n - yr 5 + b e y o n d t C O 2 /y r ( ) F irm R E c a p a c ity k W 3 1 N e t G H G e m is s io n r e d u c tio n yrs t C O ( ) G rid typ e Is o la te d -g rid N e t G H G e m is s io n r e d u c tio n yrs t C O ( ) ( ) F in a n c ia l P a r a m e te r s ( ) A v o id e d c o s t o f e n e rg y X O F /k W h 1 2 0, D e b t ra tio % 9 0,0 % R E p ro d u c tio n c re d it X O F /k W h - D e b t in te re s t ra te % 0,5 % R E p ro d u c tio n c re d it d u ra tio n yr 1 5 D e b t te rm yr R E c re d it e s c a la tio n ra te % 2,0 % G H G e m is s io n re d u c tio n c re d it X O F /t C O 2 - In c o m e ta x a n a lys is? ye s /n o N o G H G re d u c tio n c re d it d u ra tio n yr 2 1 E ffe c tiv e in c o m e ta x ra te % 3 5,0 % G H G c re d it e s c a la tio n ra te % 0,0 % L o s s c a rryfo rw a rd? ye s /n o Y e s A v o id e d c o s t o f e x c e s s e n e rg y X O F /k W h - D e p re c ia tio n m e th o d - D e c lin in g b a la n c e A v o id e d c o s t o f c a p a c ity X O F /k W -y r - D e p re c ia tio n ta x b a s is % 8 0,0 % E n e rg y c o s t e s c a la tio n ra te % 4,0 % D e p re c ia tio n ra te % 3 0,0 % In fla tio n % 3,0 % D e p re c ia tio n p e rio d yr D is c o u n t ra te % 1 1,0 % T a x h o lid a y a v a ila b le? ye s /n o N o P ro je c t life yr 5 0 T a x h o lid a y d u ra tio n yr P r o je c t C o s ts a n d S a v in g s In itia l C o s ts A n n u a l C o s ts a n d D e b t F e a s ib ility s tu d y 3,2 % X O F O & M X O F D e v e lo p m e n t 3,5 % X O F F u e l/e le c tric ity X O F E n g in e e rin g 0,7 % X O F D e b t p a y m e n ts yrs X O F E n e rg y e q u ip m e n t 3 0,9 % X O F A n n u a l C o s ts a n d D e b t - T o ta l X O F B a la n c e o f p la n t 5 7,1 % X O F M is c e lla n e o u s 4,6 % X O F A n n u a l S a v in g s o r In c o m e In itia l C o s ts - T o ta l 1 0 0,0 % X O F E n e rg y s a v in g s /in c o m e X O F C a p a c ity s a v in g s /in c o m e X O F In c e n tiv e s /G ra n ts X O F - R E p r o d u c tio n c re d it in c o m e yrs X O F G H G re d u c tio n in c o m e y rs X O F A n n u a l S a v in g s - T o ta l X O F P e r io d ic C o s t s (C r e d its ) # T u rb in e o v e rh a u l X O F S c h e d u le yr # # X O F - S c h e d u le yr # 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, # X O F - S c h e d u le yr # 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0, E n d o f p ro je c t life - C re d it X O F - S c h e d u le yr # F in a n c ia l F e a s ib ility C a lc u la te e n e rg y p ro d u c tio n c o s t? ye s /n o Y e s P re -ta x IR R a n d R O I % 2 2,3 % E n e rg y p ro d u c tio n c o s t X O F /k W h 9 2, A fte r-ta x IR R a n d R O I % 2 2,3 % C a lc u la te G H G re d u c tio n c o s t? ye s /n o Y e s S im p le P a y b a c k yr 1 9,6 G H G e m is s io n re d u c tio n c o s t X O F /t C O 2 ( ) Y e a r-to -p o s itiv e c a s h flo w yr 6,8 P ro je c t e q u ity X O F N e t P re s e n t V a lu e - N P V X O F P ro je c t d e b t X O F A n n u a l L ife C yc le S a v in g s X O F D e b t p a ym e n ts X O F /y r B e n e fit-c o s t (B -C ) ra tio - 4,4 0 D e b t s e rv ic e c o v e ra g e - 1, V e rs io n 3.0 M in is te r o f N a tu ra l R e s o u rc e s C a n a d a N R C a n /C E T C - V a re n n e s 25 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

26 RETSCREEN SMALL HYDRO PROJECT MODEL PROJECT CASH FLOWS Cumulative Cash Flows Graph Small Hydro Project Cumulative Cash Flows Wonougba, rivière Sio, région Kpalimé, Togo Renewable energy delivered (MWh/yr): 187 Total Initial Costs: XOF Net average GHG reduction (t CO2 /yr): Cumulative Cash Flows (XOF) ( ) Years IRR and ROI: 22,3% Year-to-positive cash flow: 6,8 yr Net Present Value: XOF Version 3.0 Minister of Natural Resources Canada NRCan/CETC - Varennes 26 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

27 RETSCREEN SMALL HYDRO PROJECT MODEL GHG CALCULATION 27 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

28 Base Case Electricity System (Baseline) Fuel type Fuel mix CO 2 emission factor CH 4 emission factor N 2O emission factor Fuel conversion efficiency T & D losses GHG emission factor (%) (kg/gj) (kg/gj) (kg/gj) (%) (%) (t CO2/MWh) Diesel (#2 oil) 100,0% 74,1 0,0020 0, ,0% 17,0% 1,081 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Electricity mix 100% 297,6 0,0080 0, ,0% 1,081 Does baseline change during project life? No Change in GHG emission factor % -20,0% Proposed Case Electricity System (Small Hydro Project) Fuel type Fuel mix CO 2 emission factor CH 4 emission factor N 2O emission factor Fuel conversion efficiency T & D losses GHG emission factor (%) (kg/gj) (kg/gj) (kg/gj) (%) (%) (t CO2/MWh) Electricity system Small hydro 100,0% 0,0 0,0000 0, ,0% 8,0% 0,000 GHG Emission Reduction Summary Years of Base case Proposed case End-use Gross annual GHG credits Net annual occurence GHG emission GHG emission annual energy GHG emission transaction GHG emission factor factor delivered reduction fee reduction (yr) (tco2/mwh) (tco2/mwh) (MWh) (t CO2) (%) (t CO2) Electricity system 1 to 4 1,081 0, ,0% Complete Financial Summary sheet

29 29 SUMMARY OF PREFEASIBILITY STUDY BENIN

30 30 SUMMARY OF PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY MALI

31 31 SUMMARY OF PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY TOGO

32 CONCLUSION RETScreen was used to estimate capacity, output and costs based on site characteristics such as flow duration curve and head RETScreen allowed the Technical Team to achieve preliminary feasibility study and cost assessment Run-of-river projects: Lower cost & lower environmental impacts But need back-up power on isolated grid Initial costs high and 75% site specific 32 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan

33 Questions? Photo Credit: M Gbra N Guessan Energy and Water are Sources of Life 33 Econoler / Cabinet EATP Abidjan