Groundwater Risk Assessment
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1 Groundwater Risk Assessment ELQF - 6 November 2012 Katy Baker Technical Director ARCADIS (UK) Limited Imagine the result
2 Problem definition The importance of the CSM 2
3 The definition of the problem: 3
4 Depth (z-axis) Depth (z-axis) Reality of plumes 4 Expanding plume Contaminant concentrations in the high-k zones exceed those in the low-k zones. Contracting plume Contaminant concentrations in the high-k zones are lower than those in the low-k zones. Back-diffusion is occurring.
5 Sorption and back-diffusion 5 Colorado State Univ lab studies - Courtesy Dr. Tom Sale 5
6 CSM development Sufficiently robust CSM to consider undertaking a risk assessment? What is the aquifer? (geologic maps, BGS logs, site specific logs) Porous vs. fractured system? Leaching from unsaturated zone? Lateral flow, vertical flow, or combination? 6
7 Hydraulics vs Contaminant Fate & Transport First step is to understand (and model) the hydrogeology and hydraulics Second step is to understand (and model) contaminant migration within the system Third step is to evaluate significance of migration (typically comparison of predicted groundwater concentration against acceptable concentration) 7
8 Hydraulics What to consider? 8
9 Characterizing groundwater flow Darcy s Law: flow of fluid through porous medium Discharge vs. Velocity But what is important to remember? 9
10 Physical Aquifer Properties Property Primary Data Sources Hydraulic gradient Site specific: requires levelling of groundwater wells Hydraulic conductivity Literature: hydrogeologic map, relationship between groundwater/river Site specific: rising/falling head tests, pumping tests, particle size analysis Literature: typically wide ranges Effective porosity Site specific: difficult to measure Literature: difficult if mixed geology 10 Sensitivity analysis can help select appropriate values, but all are correlated, care not to select all conservative E.g. gradient of 0.01 and conductivity of 5nm/day does not reflect a real scenario
11 Contaminant Transport What to consider? 11
12 Water vs. contaminants? 12 Majority of contaminants do not move at the same speed as groundwater Rate of migration limited by interaction with the aquifer Dispersion, degradation, attenuation Processes are dependent on the type of contaminant and the aquifer properties Contaminants (e.g. bromide) which travel at comparable velocity as groundwater are good tracer compounds (help to calibrate groundwater models)
13 Controls on migration in groundwater Mixing in groundwater Attenuation via: retardation, dispersion and degradation 13
14 Controls on migration of NAPL? Lateral migration (LNAPL and DNAPLs) Vertical migration (DNAPLs) 14
15 Contaminant/Source Properties Property Primary Data Sources Physico-chemical Type (e.g. organic vs. inorganic) Chemical properties (e.g. solubility, organic carbon-water partition coefficient (Koc)) Source dimensions Source vs. plume, site data Degradation Primarily for organics Site specific: relatively easy to demonstrate degradation occurring (e.g. use of daughter products), measuring half life more difficult Literature: primarily based on degradation dissolved phase (organics) Retardation Interaction with aquifer (e.g. cation exchange, sorption to organic matter) Insensitive for steady-state, infinite source 15
16 Boundary Conditions 16
17 Setting the boundaries Independent of model, always need to consider: What is the receptor of concern? Protection of receptor? 17
18 Receptor of concern Setting of compliance point Specific receptor or hypothetical? Groundwater vs. surface water Beneath source vs. distance down-gradient Hazardous vs. non-hazardous (50m or more?) Legal compliance vs. risk assessment 18
19 Protection of receptor Selection of compliance criteria Traditionally EQS vs. DWS Impact of Water Framework Directive? Consider what receptor is being protected Environment Agency database If no obvious compliance criterion? Background levels, method detection, Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC), back-calculate from acceptable dose for specific organisms... 19
20 Groundwater Risk Assessment Methodology 20
21 Risk Assessment Remedial Targets Methodology (RTM): Hydrogeological Risk Assessment for Land Contamination, Environment Agency (2006) [formerly the P20 methodology] Simplest: direct comparison to compliance criterion Often used as Generic Assessment Criteria Does not dictate which model to use Not obliged to use model at all Define compliance criterion Back-calculate acceptable concentration in groundwater beneath site Back-calculate acceptable concentration in overlying soil (if needed) Compare Derived Assessment Criteria to Site Data Imagine the result
22 Assessment without model Imagine the result
23 Risk Assessment Software Packages 23
24 Choice of Software What is the assessment aiming to achieve? What is the timescale? What is the complexity of the environmental setting? Have sufficient data been collected? Has the assessor enough experience to run the model? Imagine the result
25 Examples of Software Packages 2-D Modelling Packages: Remedial Targets Worksheet (RTW) v3.1 [EA] ConSim v2.2 [Golder Associates/EA] FLOWPATH II [Waterloo Hydrogeologic] 3-D Modelling Packages: Visual MODFLOW [Waterloo Hydrogeologic] Imagine the result
26 RTW Imagine the result
27 Typical Modelling Scenarios Soil contamination (with shallow groundwater body) Historical groundwater contamination forming a plume Time to set up: hours Training level: low Model Capabilities Deterministic Forward prediction of off-site concentrations Backward calculation of remedial targets Continuous source term Steady-state conditions, or time-variant (validation purposes) Domenico equations, Ogata Banks equation Imagine the result
28 Assessment Levels SOIL: Level 1: partitioning from soil to porewater Level 2: dilution of leached porewater in aquifer Level 3: attenuation (dispersion, degradation, retardation) within plume as it moves off-site GROUNDWATER: Level 3: attenuation (dispersion, degradation, retardation) within plume as it moves off-site Imagine the result
29 Site Specific Data? Ideally, site specific data collected where possible Sensitivity testing undertaken manually Soil source parameters - Fraction of Organic Carbon, source dimensions (bulk density, porosity, infiltration) Aquifer parameters - Hydraulic gradient, hydraulic conductivity, source dimensions (degradation rate, effective porosity) Imagine the result
30 Black box model? No and while simple, still flexible Time effect can be investigated (time for contaminant breakthrough) Can validate against real site conditions Primary challenge is the mixing of hydraulics and contaminant fate & transport 30
31 Source vs. plume 31
32 ConSim Imagine the result
33 Typical Modelling Scenarios Soil contamination (with significant unsaturated zone) Historical groundwater contamination forming a plume Time to set up: hours Model Capabilities Training level: low-medium Probabilistic Forward prediction of off-site concentrations Continuous source term or declining Time-variant Unsaturated zone flow via single or dual porosity system Attenuation (retardation, biodegradation) in unsaturated zone Effectively Ogata Banks for saturated zone Soakaway option Imagine the result
34 Assessment Levels SOIL: Level 1: partitioning from soil to porewater Level 2: attenuation of leaching porewater and subsequent dilution within aquifer Level 3: attenuation (dispersion, degradation, retardation) within plume as it moves off-site GROUNDWATER: Level 3a: attenuation (dispersion, degradation, retardation) within plume as it moves off-site Imagine the result
35 Site Specific Data? Site specific data to be collected where possible Sensitivity testing undertaken by the model (probabilistic) Soil source parameters - Fraction of Organic Carbon, source dimensions (bulk density, porosity) Unsaturated zone Aquifer parameters - Fraction of Organic Carbon, thickness, porosity, permeability (infiltration rate) - Hydraulic gradient, hydraulic conductivity (degradation rate, effective porosity) Imagine the result
36 FLOWPATH II - inputs Imagine the result
37 Outputs Imagine the result
38 38
39 Typical Modelling Scenarios Relatively complex hydrogeology Groundwater contamination, knowledge of off-site conditions Time to set up: days-weeks Training level: medium-high Model Capabilities Groundwater model and contaminant transport model Forward prediction of off-site concentrations Time-variant with source control Single layer Lateral cell-by-cell anisotropy, grid system Model domain definition Domain inputs and outputs (e.g. pumping wells) Groundwater heads, particle tracking, contaminant plumes Imagine the result
40 Site Specific Data? Necessity to validate/calibrate model Sensitivity testing undertaken through the validation process Site data needed for across model domain if possible: - Hydraulic conductivity of aquifer - Top of aquifer - Base of aquifer - Observation wells (groundwater elevations) - Model inputs/outputs (e.g. river dimensions, pumping rates) - Aquifer recharge (literature data?) - Porosity (literature data?) Imagine the result
41 Visual MODFLOW - inputs Imagine the result
42 Outputs 42
43 Typical Modelling Scenarios Complex hydrogeology Good knowledge of off-site conditions Time to set up: weeks Training level: high Model Capabilities 3D Groundwater model and contaminant transport model MODFLOW, MODPATH, MT3DMS Multiple layer model Lateral cell-by-cell anisotropy, grid system Model domain definition Detailed domain inputs and outputs (e.g. pumping wells) Groundwater heads, particle tracking, contaminant plumes (steady state, time variant) Imagine the result
44 Site Specific Data? Necessity to validate/calibrate model Sensitivity testing undertaken through the validation process Large data requirements: - Detailed knowledge about aquifer, in 3D - Detailed knowledge of model domain, including boundary conditions - Detailed knowledge of model inputs/outputs - Knowledge of contaminant distribution, to allow best estimate at forward prediction Imagine the result
45 Risk evaluation Conclusions 45
46 Do we understand the risks? Comparison of all concentrations, maximum, average in source area? What level of risk is suggested by modelling? (e.g. just above assessment criteria) How realistic is the setup? (e.g. steady state vs. time limited, infinite vs. finite source) Can additional site specific data be collected? Additional steps to consider? (e.g. dilution within a receptor surface water or abstraction, attenuation in hyporheic zone) 46
47 Conclusions Conceptual site model underpins all groundwater risk assessments Hydraulics vs. contaminant fate & transport Wide range of software tools to use but can consider alternatives if justified Reality checking of models is important Reality checking of risk evaluation is equally important 47
48 Thank you Contact Information 48
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