Electrification and Decarbonization

Transcription

1 Electrification and Decarbonization Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D. Technical Executive Energy and Environmental Analysis, EPRI Energy and Climate Seminar, Washington, DC May 10, 2017

2 Reducing carbon emissions through electrification In many cases, replacing fossil fuels with electricity at the end-use results in lower overall carbon emissions Leverage will only increase with tighter constraints on power sector CO2 Key questions: What are the potential drivers? How much fossil use could be cost-effectively replaced by electricity even without a carbon price? For the remainder, how does carbon pricing change the equation, i.e. how does electrification compare with other mitigation options? In either case, how do we think about adoption and diffusion in the context of consumer behavior? 2

3 Potential Drivers of Electrification Policy drivers (at federal, state, or local level) Economy-wide carbon incentives Sector-specific targets or mandates Air quality regulations in non-attainment areas Non-policy drivers Technological change (e.g., declining battery costs) Fuel markets New business models (e.g., autonomous vehicles, indoor agriculture) Changing rate structures 3

4 Final Energy by Sector / End-Use (2014) Quad BTUs Electric Vehicles Heat Pumps Electric arc furnaces, Infrared drying, etc. Water heaters, dryers, ranges, etc. Indoor Ag? Public buses, Delivery trucks, etc. HVAC, forklifts, etc. 0 Electricity Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Bioenergy * Excludes upstream and midstream energy use, e.g. power generation, oil & gas extraction, refining, and pipelines 4

5 Electrification Prospects by Sector Transportation Light duty vehicles Heavy duty road vehicles Other Buildings Heat pumps for space heating Water heaters / dryers / ranges Industry Specialized / low-heat process Boilers / high-heat process Facility energy use Scale Potential / / / / 5

6 US-REGEN End-Use Model Building Data (RECS / CBECS) Industrial Energy (MECS) Industrial Mix (IMPLAN) Hourly Temperature (MERRA) Vehicle/Driver Data (NHTS) Service Demands (AEO) Cost/Performance (EPRI) Energy Prices End-Use Simulation Model Choice by region/vintage/sector/ class (e.g., climate zone/ consumer type) RECS = Residential Energy Consumption Survey (from EIA) CBECS = Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (from EIA) MECS = Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (from EIA) IMPLAN = Impact Analysis for Planning (state- and industry-level economic data) MERRA = Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (gridded historical weather data from NASA) NHTS = National Household Transportation Survey (US Department of Transportation) AEO = Annual Energy Outlook (from EIA) Non-Electric Energy Use Electricity Load Profile Updated Electricity Prices Emissions/ Air Quality Pa cif ic US-REGEN Electric Sector Model 6

7 Light-Duty Vehicles Currently EVs and PHEVs have a very small market share but may be on the cusp of much more widespread deployment Technology is moving fast, especially battery costs Autonomous vehicle service could change the landscape dramatically Significant customer heterogeneity Urban / Suburban / Rural Low / Medium / High annual mileage Single / multiple car households Attitude / Access to electric charging / ride service Model trade-offs including economic and non-economic factors 7

8 Electric Vehicle Cost Delta vs Conventional Vehicle $1,000 - EPRI assumptions about vehicle costs for 2030 (no incentives) - ORNL estimates of behavioral costs - current fuel prices + $100/tCO 2 Median consumer type $500 Annualized Cost Delta vs ICEV $0 -$500 -$1,000 -$1,500 PHEV-10 PHEV-20 PHEV-40 EV-100 EV-150 EV-250 Purchase Price Behavioral Maintenance Fuel Carbon Net Delta vs ICEV 8

9 Electric vehicles may not work for all consumer types $5,500 $4,500 - EPRI assumptions about vehicle costs for 2030 (no incentives) - ORNL estimates of behavioral costs - current fuel prices + $100/tCO 2 Rural, high mileage, late majority, high electricity price consumer type Annualized Cost Delta vs ICEV $3,500 $2,500 $1,500 $500 -$500 -$1,500 PHEV-10 PHEV-20 PHEV-40 EV-100 EV-150 EV-250 Purchase Price Behavioral Maintenance Fuel Carbon Net Delta vs ICEV 9

10 Modeling Autonomous Vehicles Household-level Decision Typical weekday distribution of vehicle miles traveled (based on NHTS, 2009) 10% 9% Autonomous Vehicle Service ICEV Private Vehicle Ownership Electric Percent of Daily VMT by hour 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% PHEV EV 0% Hours (typical weekday) 10

11 Electric Heating in Buildings Currently about 1/3 of residential buildings in the US have electricity as the main heat source, according to EIA surveys Concentrated in regions with mild climates / favorable relative fuel prices, e.g. Florida and Pacific NW Higher shares in smaller housing units / recent vintages 25% share of floorspace in commercial buildings New opportunities for air source heat pump (ASHP) technology We model the economic trade-offs for ASHP vs. conventional furnace (+ A/C) in each region / climate zone based on temperature profile and retail fuel prices 11

12 Heating/Cooling Zones based on HDD CDD 120 W 110 W 100 W 90 W 80 W 70 W 45 N 40 N 35 N 30 N 25 N HDD CDD Based on hourly temperature data in NASA MERRA2 dataset 12

13 Distribution across US of Electric Heating Cost Premium 500 Based on today s fuel prices and new vintage technology Cost Premium for Electric Heating ($ per year) Areas where electric heating has the lowest total costs Pacific SE-Central S-Atlantic Florida Mtn-S Areas where electric heating has a cost premium relative to gas NE-Central Mid-Atlantic California Texas SW-Central New York NW-Central New England Mtn-N Cumulative square footage installing new equipment (billions) 13

14 Higher carbon prices more electric heating in the money Cost Premium for Electric Heating ($ per year) Pacific SE-Central Florida Based on carbon-adjusted fuel prices and new vintage technology S-Atlantic Mtn-S NE-Central Mid-Atlantic California Texas SW-Central New York $0/tCO 2 NW-Central New England $100/tCO 2 Mtn-N $200/tCO 2 $300/tCO Cumulative square footage installing new equipment (billions) 14

15 Effect of Electrification on Load Shapes GW Florida 2010 High Electric Heating Share, Mild Climate Space Heating Non-Seasonal Space Cooling J F M A M J J A S O N D As end-use mix changes, relative size of heating and cooling vs. non-seasonal loads will result in potentially very different aggregate profile / alignment with renewables New shapes will be introduced, in particular vehicle charging Result could improve or exacerbate generation asset utilization Better resource integration could allow more flexibility in demand response 15 Preliminary: Subject to further calibration

16 Key Insights and Ongoing Research What is the role of the electric sector along potential pathways for energy system transformation? Significant potential to reduce non-electric fossil fuel use and emissions through increased electric share, especially in vehicles and buildings Some energy applications unlikely to be electrified even with carbon policy incentives, e.g. aviation, heavy industry, heating in cold climates Need to ensure that policies, regulations, and rate structures align incentives for electrification where appropriate First-order electric system impacts: need integrated modeling approach National Electrification Assessment: EPRI study Dec

17 Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 17