Energy Outlook and Challenges of ASEAN

Transcription

1 Energy Outlook and Challenges of ASEAN Presented by: Sanjayan Velautham Executive Director ASEAN Centre for ENERGY (ACE), Jakarta Presented at Canon Institute for Global Strategy (CIGS) 27 th May 2016 Tokyo, Japan

2 The views, opinions, and information expressed in this presentation were compiled from sources believed to be reliable for information and sharing purposes only, and are solely those of the presenter; do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) and/or the ASEAN Member States. Any use of this presentation s content should be by ACE s permission.

3 CONTENTS ASEAN Overview ASEAN Centre for Energy(ACE) in ASEAN Energy Mix Electricity Mix ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) Energy Challenges in ASEAN

4 ASEAN: A Community of Opportunities Total Trade USD 2.6 trillion population: 625 million area: 4,480,106 km² 8.5 % of world s population 56% living in rural areas GDP growth : 5.1 % Remarkable sustained growth rate GDP per capita 3,831.8 US$ High disparity within the region TThe ASEAN Economic Community: Effectively implemented on 31 December 2015, Calls for a well-connected ASEAN to drive an integrated, competitive and resilient region. to establish ASEAN as a single market and production base with the goal of making ASEAN more dynamic and competitive. electricity consumption: 1,178 kwh/cap Electrification : 78.7% About half of world s average energy intensity: koe / $05p About half of world s average

5 Relevant Senior Officials ASEAN Centre for Energy(ACE) in ASEAN ASEAN Coordinating Council N A T I O N A L S E C R E T A R I A T C P R ASEAN Political-Security Community Council Sectoral Ministerials Sectoral SOMs ASCOPE Council HAPUA Council ASEAN Summit ASEAN Economic Community Council Sectoral Ministerials ( AMEM) Sectoral SOMs (SOME) ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community Council Sectoral Ministerials Sectoral SOMs A S E A N S E C R E T A R I A T LEGEND Governing Council AEBF: ASEAN Energy Business Forum AFOC: ASEAN Forum on Coal AMEM: ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting ASCOPE: ASEAN Council on Petroleum CPR: Committee of Permanent Representatives EE&C-SSN: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Sub-sector Network HAPUA: Heads of ASEAN Power Utilities/Authorities RE-SSN: Renewable Energy Sub-sector Network NEC-SSN: Nuclear Energy Cooperation Sub-sector Network SOM: Senior Officials Meeting SOME: Senior Officials Meeting on Energy REPP-SSN: Regional Energy Policy and Planning Sub-sector Network ASCOPE HAPUA AFOC ASEAN CENTRE FOR ENERGY (ACE) RE SSN EE & C SSN NEC SSN REPP SSN

6 ACE Cooperation Through ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE), cooperation and collaboration in energy sector are done by conducting capacity building, technical and good practices exchange and policy research and analytics Some of Ongoing Programmes: 1. ASEAN+3 Mitigation Cooperation Programme (China, Korea and Japan) 2. ASEAN-Japan Energy Efficiency Partnership (ECCJ) 3. ASEAN - Renewable Energy Support Program (GIZ) 4. ASEAN-Canada Nuclear and Radiological Program (DAFT)

7 Total Primary Energy Supply -Historical - Comparison Sources : ACE Database, as of 2013.

8 ASEAN ENERGY OUTLOOK PROJECTED TPES % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 0.49% 10.96% 9.64% 8.57% 6.70% 2.23% 2.66% 1.77% 2.37% 4.43% 3.76% 4.01% 4.52% 3.63% 3.54% 3.33% 2.88% 18.74% 23.26% 23.03% 22.32% 27.32% 41.13% 31.13% 29.92% Mtoe 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, % 20% 10% 0% 20.09% 26.36% 28.56% 33.14% Coal Oil Natural gas Hydro Geothermal Others Renewables Traditional Biomass Nuclear Coal Oil Natural gas 19 Hydro Geothermal Others Renewables Traditional Biomass Nuclear Sources : ACE database

9 RE MIX IN POWER CAPACITY / GENERATION Non-renewable Energy 75.2% 184,068 MW Renewable Energy 24.8% Nonrenewable Energy 79.4% 820,834 GWh Renewable Energy 20.6% Installed Power Capacity for Renewable Energy : 45,584.9 MW Power Generation for Renewable Energy 169,073 GWh *Others : Biogas and waste Sources : ACE Database, as of 2013.

10 PROJECTION ON ELECTRICITY GENERATION 3,500 One Community for Sustainable Energy 3,000 2,500 2,000 TWh 1,500 1, BAU scenario - average growth at 5.8 % per year Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Sources : ACE Database, as of 2013.

11 ASEAN ENERGY BLUEPRINT The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to Achieve Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and Sustainability for All Phase I endorse by the ASEAN Ministers of Energy 7 Areas of Focus ASEAN Power Grid Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline Coal & Clean Coal Technology Energy Efficiency & Conservation Renewable Energy Civilian Nuclear Energy Regional Energy Policy and Planning

12 LEGEND MYANMAR 11 South Existing Under Construction 4 ASEAN POWER GRID (APG) North PEOPLE S REPUBLIC OF CHINA YUNNAN LAO PDR 9 2 THAILAND 14 CAMBODIA VIETNAM 1 5 SUMATRA SARAWAK BRUNEI 6 8 WEST KALIMANTAN 7 East PHILLIPINES 15 INDONESIA SABAH Earliest COD 1) P.Malaysia - Singapore (New) Connected (post 2020) 2) Thailand - P.Malaysia Connected Sadao - Bukit Keteri Existing Khlong Ngae - Gurun Existing Su Ngai Kolok - Rantau Panjang TBC Khlong Ngae Gurun (2 nd Phase, 300MW) TBC 3) Sarawak - P. Malaysia ) P.Malaysia - Sumatra ) Batam - Singapore ) Sarawak - West Kalimantan ) Philippines - Sabah ) Sarawak - Sabah Brunei Sarawak Sabah 2020 Sarawak Brunei ) Thailand - Lao PDR Connected Roi Et 2 - Nam Theun 2 Existing Sakon Nakhon 2 Thakhek Then Hinboun (Exp.) Existing Mae Moh 3 - Nan - Hong Sa 2015 Udon Thani 3- Nabong (converted to 500KV) 2019 Ubon Ratchathani 3 Pakse Xe Pian Xe Namnoy 2019 Khon Kaen 4 Loei 2 Xayaburi 2019 Nakhon Phanom Thakhek 2015 Thailand Lao PDR (New) ( ) 10) Lao PDR - Vietnam Connected 11) Thailand - Myanmar ) Vietnam - Cambodia Connected 13) Lao PDR - Cambodia ) Thailand - Cambodia (New) post ) East Sabah - East Kalimantan post ) Singapore Sumatra post 2020 One Community for Sustainable Energy Future

13 TRANS-ASEAN GAS PIPELINE (TAPG) Status 2015 One Community for Sustainable Energy 13 bilateral gas pipeline connecting 6 countries 4 RGTs existing 4 more expected by 2020.

14 RE & EE Increase % RE Renewable Energy: Aspirational target of 23% by 2025 in ASEAN Total Primary Energy Supply. Awareness among policy makers, private sectors and public R&D network on RE technology development Energy Efficiency & Conservation: To reduce energy intensity by 20% in 2020 based on 2005 level. Harmonise Standards Green building codes Reduce EI %

15 COAL & NUCLEAR Increase CCT Coal Increasing at CAGR of 7% Increase CCT technology & Carbon Capture ASEAN Coal Database and Information System (ACDIS) Nuclear for Civilian Use First unit in 2028 (probable) Capability & Capacity Strengthen regional cooperation on nuclear Public awareness Increase Awareness and capacity

16 Conclusion : Energy Challenges in ASEAN Energy generation/utilisation, combined with sustainable energy development, is one of the many challenges that we face in a world of economic prosperity, social development and environmental preservation. Accessibility & Affordability Energy Security Sustainability Rural Electrification Incentive Schemes Energy Mix Market Integration (Connectivity) Regulatory and institutional frameworks Technical Non-Technical

17 Thank you