BAIINFO Rare Earth Weekly

Transcription

1 BAIINFO Rare Earth Weekly Feb 9, 2017 / Issue BAIINFO, as the biggest supplier of bulk raw material market information in China, has professional teams to track price and market moves daily, analyze future trend, and do advanced studies on upstream and downstream industry development, devoting itself to help customers in market decision-making by supplying scientific views on future market outlook and investment direction. BAIINFO International Dept. Tel: Fax: lxh@baiinfo.cn

2 Industry Review Capacity & Output Rare Earths Price & Trends Imp. & Exp. Data Industry Review Review & Analysis It s the first week after spring festival. Rare earth prices kept stable early this week. Supported by positive news, rare earth prices increased steadily. Market insiders held strong rising attitude, while part of upstream manufactures did not start operation. Traders and downstream traders mainly made the enquiry, but transactions did not positive. Insiders still held bleak watching attitude. Market Forecast Rare earth prices kept rising. It was predicted that rare earth prices will move high continually next week. Neodymium praseodymium oxide prices will jump to RMB270, ,000/tonne. Middle and heavy rare earth prices increased in different range. Influencing factors: 1 Downstream enterprises demand resumed after Spring festival. Manufactures stocked resources, so enquiry amounts turned more. 2 Purchasing and storage won the bid before Spring festival, and it delivered after Spring festival. So market enquiry amounts increased. 3 Crime crackdown policy was continuing. Government will inspect operation condition of rare earth, so supply amounts will decline accordingly. 4 The expectation of Rare earth reserves and commercial reserves could push high, so social stocks will decline, which will push high rare earth prices. Under rising demand and declining supply, rare earth prices will be pushed high. The risk lies on the intensity of anti-underworlds and the progress of national reserve. 1 / 11

3 Market Highlights 1 Rare earth price is expected to rise stably. Rare earth is a key industry for environmental protection inspection. Considering the cost, many plants in Jiangxi, Jiangsu and Guanxi were shut down. Environmental protection inspection, national reserve and crackdown on illegal activities will lead to reduced supply, so rare earth price is likely to move up stably. 2 Top 10 Technology News in China Rare Earth Market 2016 were published, of which Baotou Research Institute of Rare Earths PVC rare earth heat stabilizer technology reached the international advanced level. Developed by Baotou Research Institute of Rare Earths, with independent intellectual property rights, PVC rare earth heat stabilizer is a green product and it can be used to produce a variety of PVC non-toxic products. 3 Rainbow Rare Earths RWBR.L was listed in London major stock market, raising 8 million to invest on Gakara project in Burundi of Africa. It s expected that products will be sold to TKAG.DE in Germany. The project deals with magnetic rare earths including neodymium and praseodymium, which can be increasingly used in generators, wind turbines and electric vehicles. 4 In Guangxi, a series of serious crackdown activities on illegal acts of mineral resources were started, which effectively protected national mineral resources and ecological environment. 5 State Administration of Taxation and Ministry of Land and Resources released announcement and decided to reduce resource tax for condition of cut and fill mining or mines in exhaustion stage by 50% and 30%, with record management system. 6 On Jan. 25, 2017, National Development and Reform Commission released Catalog of Strategic Important Products of Emerging Industries and Service Guidance (2016 edition). Price & Trends Domestic Prices of Rare Earths Offers Price Change Product Name (RMB/T) Week by Week Month by Month Year by Year Lanthanum Oxide in North China 14, % 0.00% 0.00% Cerium Oxide in North China 11, % 0.00% 3.60% Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide 268, % 2.30% 3.90% Praseodymium Oxide 330, % 0.00% 0.00% Neodymium Oxide 265, % 1.10% 2.70% Dysprosium Oxide 1,210, % 0.80% -0.80% Terbium Oxide 2,980, % 3.50% 4.60% Europium Oxide 420, % 0.00% 5.00% Yttrium Oxide 19, % 0.00% 0.00% 2 / 11

4 Gadolinium Oxide 70, % 0.00% 0.00% Holmium Oxide 330, % 0.00% 0.00% Erbium Oxide 163, % 0.00% 0.00% Lutetium Oxide 4,400, % 2.30% 4.80% Lanthanum Metal 35, % 0.00% 0.00% Cerium Metal 35, % 0.00% 0.00% Lanthanum-cerium Metal 30, % 0.00% 0.00% Praseodymium Nedymium Metal 345, % 2.10% 2.10% Praseodymium Metal 570, % 0.00% 0.00% Neodymium Metal 343, % 1.50% 1.50% Dysprosium Metal 1,650, % 0.00% -1.80% Dy-Fe 1,250, % 1.60% 0.80% Terbium Metal 4,000, % 3.90% 2.60% Gd-Fe 83, % 0.00% 0.00% HoFe Alloy 350, % 0.00% 0.00% Export Prices of Rare Earths Product Grade 3-Feb-17 9-Feb-17 Change Unit Remarks Lanthanum oxide 99%-99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Lanthanum metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Cerium oxide 99.9%-99.99%min USD/KG FOB China Cerium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Lanthanum cerium mixed metal TREM 99% Ce/TREM 65% USD/KG FOB China Praseodymium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Praseodymium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Neodymium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Neodymium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Dysprosium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Dysprosium ferrite 99%min Dy 80% USD/KG FOB China Terbium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Terbium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Europium oxide %min USD/KG FOB China PrNd mixed metal 99%min Nd 75% USD/KG FOB China Yttrium oxide %min USD/KG FOB China Price Trends of Rare Earths 3 / 11

5 Lanthanum-Cerium: Lanthanum-cerium price was stable with thin deals. China Northern Rare Earth held firm price and insiders held positive attitude. In Feb., China Northern Rare Earth s price f would rise or at least stay firm. Lanthanum oxide was RMB14,000/T and cerium oxide at RMB11,000-15,000/T. Lanthanum-cerium Metal: Sellers mostly had not returned to rare earth market. Besides, there were few upstream enterprises resumed productions. At present, lanthanum-cerium metal was offered at RMB 25,000-28,000/T. Lanthanum Metal: Lanthanum metal market price kept at RMB 30,000-35,000/T. And the market is expected to run bullish later. Cerium Metal: Cerium metal market price stayed at RMB 30,000-35,000/T and deals were scarce. 4 / 11

6 Praseodymium Neodymium: Market prices of praseodymium neodymium moved up overall. Praseodymium neodymium oxide price rose by RMB 8,000/T to RMB 268,000/T. Praseodymium neodymium metal price hiked by RMB 5,000/T to RMB 342, ,000/T. There were many inquiries, but no deals were concluded. Praseodymium Oxide: Praseodymium oxide price remained at RMB 330, ,000/T. Buyers mainly focused on inquiries but did not purchase cargoes. Neodymium Oxide: Neodymium oxide market price went up to RMB 263, ,000/T. Downstream magnet material enterprises mostly held watching mood. Dysprosium Oxide: Dysprosium oxide price increased by RMB 20,000/T to RMB 1,210,000/T with thin deals. And dysprosium oxide price is expected to climb up further next week. 5 / 11

7 Terbium Oxide: Terbium oxide price rose by RMB 100,000/T to RMB 3,000,000/T due to sellers optimistic expectations. However, deals were limited and the price is possible to move up continuously. Europium Oxide: Europium oxide price decreased to RMB 380, ,000/T. With orders getting more after the Lantern Festival holiday, the price is likely to move up again. Yttrium Oxide: Yttrium oxide price kept at RMB 18,000-19,000/T and deals were lackluster. Capacity & Output Capacity & Output In Dec., 2016, the operating rate of rare earth separation industry declined. Approaching to the Spring Festival holiday, small and medium-sized enterprises mostly halted production, while mainstream large enterprises still kept production. However, dealers kept watching mood, so there were few deals seen for rare earth. Rare earth enterprises began to restart after the Lantern Festival and operating rate would increase slightly. 6 / 11

8 Declared Annual Actual Monthly Processing Amount in Region Operating Rate Capacity(tonne) Capacity(tonne) Aug.(tonne) Fujian 5, % Guangdong 17,000 1, % Guangxi 8, % Gansu 15,000 1, % Jiangsu 53,300 3, % Jiangxi 81,300 4,600 1, % Inner Mongolia 87,000 11,200 3, % Shandong 42,000 3,100 2, % Sichuan 77,000 5,700 4, % Others 154,000 20,000 10, % Total 539,600 50,600 26, % Operation Rate In Dec., 2016, operating rate of rare earth metal plants increased, as downstream enterprises began to stockpile cargoes in advance approaching to the end of the year. During the Spring Festival holiday, rare earth metal plants would keep production till after the holiday because there were some orders from downstream enterprises. Annual Capacity Monthly Capacity Output in October Region Operation Rate (tonne) (tonne) (tonne) Total 82,000 5,300 3, % Imp. & Exp. Data Imp. & Exp. Volume of Rare Earths Imp. Qty(Tonne) Dec-15 Nov-16 Dec-16 MoM YoY lanthanum oxide % % cerium oxide % % yttrium oxide % -2.68% cerium hydroxide % unlisted rare earth oxide % -7.06% other unlisted rare earth and % % their mixture of compounds other rare earth carbonate % Exp. Qty(Tonne) Dec-15 Nov-16 Dec-16 MoM YoY lanthanum % 68.25% lanthanum oxide 2, , , % % cerium % 0.00% 7 / 11

9 cerium oxide % 75.74% cerium hydroxide % 0 cerium carbonate % 29.91% other cerium compounds % % praseodymium oxide % 6.65% neodymium oxide % 10.45% neodymium % % dysprosium oxide % % terbium oxide % 10.33% europium oxide % % yttrium oxide % % unlisted rare earth oxide % % ferro cerium in the form of shapes for direct use (including % 74.41% other pyrophoric alloy) other rare earth metals, scandium, other unmixed or % % fused rare earth metals scandium &yttrium (mixed or % % fused) other unlisted rare earth and % % their mixture of compounds other rare earth carbonate % other rare earth fluoride % % Imp. & Exp. Unit Price of Rare Earths Nov-16 Imp. Qty Imp. Val Unit Price Exp.Qty Exp.Val Unit Price Product Tonne USD USD/Tonne Tonne USD USD/Tonne lanthanum 0 1, ,114 4,460 lanthanum oxide ,268 17,000 1, ,594,413 2,370 lanthanum chloride , lanthanum fluoride , , lanthanum carbonate ,414,332 1,480 other lanthanum compounds , , ,213 7,850 cerium ,118 2,118, ,500 4,840 cerium oxide ,481 27, ,444,604 7,210 cerium hydroxide ,834 35, ,795 5,360 cerium carbonate ,684 1,360 other cerium compounds ,756 95, ,403 3,760 praseodymium oxide ,059 47,890 neodymium oxide ,157 38, ,353,461 39,660 neodymium ,616,289 47,360 dysprosium 0 1, , ,890 8 / 11

10 dysprosium oxide , , ,474, ,190 dysprosium fluoride , ,120 terbium , ,030 terbium oxide ,666, ,710 europium oxide ,508 58,470 yttrium oxide , , ,007 4,920 unlisted rare earth oxide ,025,466 28, ,563,790 20,210 ferro cerium in the form of shapes for direct use (including other pyrophoric alloy) ,840 39, ,811 7,170 ferro cerium not in the form of shapes and not for direct use (including other pyrophoric alloy) ,160 2,000 other rare earth metals, ,964 35,964, , ,750 scandium, unmixed or fused battery grade rare earth metals, scandium &yttrium (mixed or ,550 fused) other rare earth metals, scandium &yttrium (mixed or ,040 3,830 fused) other unlisted rare earth and ,638 2,099, ,223,371 7,550 their mixture of compounds other rare earth carbonate ,584 48,230 other rare earth fluoride ,810 1,405, ,808 16,000 Imp. & Exp. Trends of Rare Earths 9 / 11

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