BAIINFO Rare Earth Weekly

Transcription

1 BAIINFO Rare Earth Weekly Feb 23, 2017 / Issue BAIINFO, as the biggest supplier of bulk raw material market information in China, has professional teams to track price and market moves daily, analyze future trend, and do advanced studies on upstream and downstream industry development, devoting itself to help customers in market decision-making by supplying scientific views on future market outlook and investment direction. BAIINFO International Dept. Tel: Fax: lxh@baiinfo.cn

2 Industry Review Capacity & Output Rare Earths Price & Trends Imp. & Exp. Data Industry Review Review & Analysis Rare earth prices kept rise overall this week. Downstream traders accepted the high quotations gradually, then transactions turned more. Currently resources with lower prices were less. Traders were worried about price rising again, so most of them took part in the market. Market Forecast 1 The demand will turn more, and then orders will turn more accordingly. Downstream traders reduced supply amounts, so rare earth prices may keep rise continually. 2 With the new technologies emergence in the permanent magnet industry, the rapid development of the new energy vehicle and the commercialization of the permanent magnet train, which will stimulate the demand of NdFeB and provide better expectation for the development of permanent magnet in The policies against the black storage were being issued, and the supply of the rare earth was decreasing. The crackdown campaign which lasts until April 2017 will definitely give a heavy blow to the chain of the illegal rare earth and will promote the sustained development of the rare earth. Overall, downstream market is willing to accept high quotation, so transactions turn more and more. Stimulated by market demand and policy, the aftermarket will move high. Market Highlights 1 Baotou rare earth products exchange and EMKEX signed the contract in Baotou on Feb.21. All kinds of products purchasing in EMKEX including rare earth raw material, the blank material, magnetic products should finished at Baotou rare earth products exchange platform. The purchasing amounts should above RMB10 billion. 1 / 11

3 2 The Galaxy Magnets and Chengdu Modern Industrial Park signed project investment agreement. The company will make land acquisition around 80 acres to build high-performance rare earth permanent magnet material project. 3 Two new industrial standards about rare earth total amount measurement and rare earth impurity content measurement were formally implemented, filling the gaps of rare earth total amount and impurity content measurement in rare earth alloy products in China. 4 Recently, RIKEN and Peking University s joint team successfully measured the life expectancy of 94 kinds of someneutron-rich nuclei with mass number A=144 to 174, by using heavy ion accelerator. These someneutron-rich nuclei relate to rare earth elements. 5 China National Coal Group s new project of Research and Application of High-Strength and High-Ductility New Material of Casting Ledge passed quality acceptance of China Coal Industrial Association. It successfully developed a new kind of high-wear resistance steel plate, gaining the high recognition from users, with technology up to international advanced level. 6 Currently, adding rare earth element to increase high-temperature performance of magnesium alloy is a research hotspot. Two kinds of rare earth elements could be added into magnesium alloy, including low solid solubility elements like Ce and Pr, and high solid solubility elements like Y and Nd. 7 In recent years, Ministry of Land and Resources take various measures to improve the degree of satisfaction on examination and approval of mineral properties. Since 2013, Ministry of Land and Resources has actively eased the approval process of mineral properties by cancelling 9 administrative approval items. Price & Trends Domestic Prices of Rare Earths Offers Price Change Product Name (RMB/T) Week by Week Month by Month Year by Year Lanthanum Oxide in North China 14, % 1.40% 1.40% Cerium Oxide in North China 11, % 0.00% 3.60% Praseodymium-Neodymium Oxide 278, % 6.10% 7.80% Praseodymium Oxide 338, % 2.40% 2.40% Neodymium Oxide 278, % 6.10% 7.80% Dysprosium Oxide 1,230, % 2.10% 0.40% Terbium Oxide 3,030, % 5.20% 6.30% Europium Oxide 435, % 3.60% 8.70% Yttrium Oxide 19, % 0.00% 0.00% Gadolinium Oxide 72, % 2.90% 2.90% Holmium Oxide 343, % 3.90% 3.90% Erbium Oxide 172, % 5.50% 5.50% 2 / 11

4 Lutetium Oxide 4,550, % 5.80% 8.30% Lanthanum Metal 35, % 0.00% 0.00% Cerium Metal 35, % 0.00% 0.00% Lanthanum-cerium Metal 30, % 0.00% 0.00% Praseodymium Nedymium Metal 358, % 5.90% 5.90% Praseodymium Metal 585, % 2.60% 2.60% Neodymium Metal 356, % 5.30% 5.30% Dysprosium Metal 1,750, % 6.10% 4.20% Dy-Fe 1,270, % 2.80% 2.00% Terbium Metal 4,030, % 4.70% 3.30% Gd-Fe 85, % 2.40% 2.40% HoFe Alloy 375, % 7.10% 7.10% Export Prices of Rare Earths Product Grade 16-Feb Feb-17 Change Unit Remarks Lanthanum oxide 99%-99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Lanthanum metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Cerium oxide 99.9%-99.99%min USD/KG FOB China Cerium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Lanthanum cerium mixed metal TREM 99% Ce/TREM 65% USD/KG FOB China Praseodymium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Praseodymium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Neodymium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Neodymium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Dysprosium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Dysprosium ferrite 99%min Dy 80% USD/KG FOB China Terbium oxide 99.9%min USD/KG FOB China Terbium metal 99%min USD/KG FOB China Europium oxide %min USD/KG FOB China PrNd mixed metal 99%min Nd 75% USD/KG FOB China Yttrium oxide %min USD/KG FOB China Price Trends of Rare Earths 3 / 11

5 Lanthanum-Cerium: Market price remained flat. Baotou Steel Rare Earth International pushed up listing prices in Feb., prompting bullish expectations for the market. Lanthanum oxide 3N was offered at RMB 12,000-13,000/T in South China and RMB 13,500-14,000/T in Baotou. Cerium oxide 3N was offered at RMB 10,000-10,500/T in South China and RMB 11,000-11,500/T in North China. Lanthanum-cerium Metal: Lanthanum-cerium metal market ran strong and current offers stayed at RMB 25,000-28,000/T. Lanthanum Metal: Lanthanum metal market price was still at RMB 30,000-35,000/T. The market price is expected to move up as raw material prices increase slowly. Cerium Metal: Cerium metal market price kept at RMB 30,000-35,000/T with stable shipments, and later cerium market is possible to go up continuously. 4 / 11

6 Praseodymium Neodymium: There was a big gap between offers and trading prices of praseodymium neodymium this week. Downstream magnet enterprises were not eager to purchase praseodymium neodymium. Praseodymium neodymium oxide price increased to RMB 275, ,000/T. Praseodymium neodymium metal price rose to RMB 355, ,000/T. Praseodymium Oxide: Praseodymium oxide market remained firm and recent price kept at RMB 335, ,000/T. Trading price of praseodymium oxide is predicted to sustain uptrend amid increasing demands. Neodymium Oxide: Neodymium oxide market price kept at RMB 275, ,000/T. Downstream purchases were limited and sellers firmed offers. Dysprosium Oxide: Dysprosium oxide market price stayed at RMB 1,210,000-1,230,000/T. Amid limited supply, market players maintained bullish expectations for later market and upstream sellers mostly held back on selling. 5 / 11

7 Terbium Oxide: Terbium oxide price rose to RMB 3,000,000-3,050,000/T. Most of sellers were inactive in shipments due to limited supply. Europium Oxide: Europium oxide price went up to RMB 420, ,000/T. And the price is likely to move up continuously with demands increasing gradually. Yttrium Oxide: Yttrium oxide price kept at RMB 18,000-19,000/T with limited inquiries and thin deals. Capacity & Output Capacity & Output In Jan., 2017, the operating rate of rare earth separation industry declined to less than 40% due mainly to the Spring Festival holiday. Rare earth enterprises successively halted production before and after holiday. During the holiday, some small and medium enterprises reduced production, while most state-owned enterprises stayed in normal production. Besides, enterprises in different regions successively halted production caused by constant black rare earth crackdown. It was predicted that the operating rate of rare earth would increase in Feb. 6 / 11

8 Declared Annual Actual Monthly Processing Amount in Region Operating Rate Capacity(tonne) Capacity(tonne) Aug.(tonne) Fujian 5, % Guangdong 17,000 1, % Guangxi 8, % Gansu 15,000 1, % Jiangsu 53,300 3, % Jiangxi 81,300 4,600 1, % Inner Mongolia 87,000 11,200 3, % Shandong 42,000 3,100 2, % Sichuan 77,000 5,700 4, % Others 154,000 20,000 5, % Total 539,600 50,600 19, % Operation Rate In 2017, operating rate of rare earth metal plants slightly declined, as small and medium enterprises halted production during the holiday although with most enterprises increasing production on the back of the increasing orders from magnetic material enterprises before holiday. It was predicted that operating rate of rare earth metal plants would rise in line with the increasing market demand after holiday. Annual Capacity Monthly Capacity Output in October Region Operation Rate (tonne) (tonne) (tonne) The Whole Nation 82,000 5,300 3, % Imp. & Exp. Data Imp. & Exp. Volume of Rare Earths Imp. Qty(Tonne) Dec-15 Nov-16 Dec-16 MoM YoY lanthanum oxide % % cerium oxide % % yttrium oxide % -2.68% cerium hydroxide % unlisted rare earth oxide % -7.06% other unlisted rare earth and % % their mixture of compounds other rare earth carbonate % Exp. Qty(Tonne) Dec-15 Nov-16 Dec-16 MoM YoY lanthanum % 68.25% lanthanum oxide 2, , , % % cerium % 0.00% cerium oxide % 75.74% 7 / 11

9 cerium hydroxide % 0 cerium carbonate % 29.91% other cerium compounds % % praseodymium oxide % 6.65% neodymium oxide % 10.45% neodymium % % dysprosium oxide % % terbium oxide % 10.33% europium oxide % % yttrium oxide % % unlisted rare earth oxide % % ferro cerium in the form of shapes for direct use (including % 74.41% other pyrophoric alloy) other rare earth metals, scandium, other unmixed or % % fused rare earth metals scandium &yttrium (mixed or % % fused) other unlisted rare earth and % % their mixture of compounds other rare earth carbonate % other rare earth fluoride % % Imp. & Exp. Unit Price of Rare Earths Nov-16 Imp. Qty Imp. Val Unit Price Exp.Qty Exp.Val Unit Price Product Tonne USD USD/Tonne Tonne USD USD/Tonne lanthanum 0 1, ,114 4,460 lanthanum oxide ,268 17,000 1, ,594,413 2,370 lanthanum chloride , lanthanum fluoride , , lanthanum carbonate ,414,332 1,480 other lanthanum compounds , , ,213 7,850 cerium ,118 2,118, ,500 4,840 cerium oxide ,481 27, ,444,604 7,210 cerium hydroxide ,834 35, ,795 5,360 cerium carbonate ,684 1,360 other cerium compounds ,756 95, ,403 3,760 praseodymium oxide ,059 47,890 neodymium oxide ,157 38, ,353,461 39,660 neodymium ,616,289 47,360 dysprosium 0 1, , ,890 dysprosium oxide , , ,474, ,190 8 / 11

10 dysprosium fluoride , ,120 terbium , ,030 terbium oxide ,666, ,710 europium oxide ,508 58,470 yttrium oxide , , ,007 4,920 unlisted rare earth oxide ,025,466 28, ,563,790 20,210 ferro cerium in the form of shapes for direct use (including other pyrophoric alloy) ,840 39, ,811 7,170 ferro cerium not in the form of shapes and not for direct use (including other pyrophoric alloy) ,160 2,000 other rare earth metals, ,964 35,964, , ,750 scandium, unmixed or fused battery grade rare earth metals, scandium &yttrium (mixed or ,550 fused) other rare earth metals, scandium &yttrium (mixed or ,040 3,830 fused) other unlisted rare earth and ,638 2,099, ,223,371 7,550 their mixture of compounds other rare earth carbonate ,584 48,230 other rare earth fluoride ,810 1,405, ,808 16,000 Imp. & Exp. Trends of Rare Earths 9 / 11

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