Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries

Transcription

1 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries Climate Change and the fate of Rainforests Oriel College, Oxford University 22 March 2007 Key Messages Deforestation: Reducing rates of deforestation is possible and urgently needed. Positive Incentives: Leading drivers are identifiable. In most cases, higher carbon incentives will drive greater emissions reductions from deforestation. Sustainable Development: Catalyze gains toward climate stability, poverty reduction, biodiversity conservation, and rural development. Funding is Available: Principle of proportionality: policy dedicating 20% of emissions markets trades would provide revenues at necessary scale: $5 - $25 billion per year. 1

2 Deforestation Drivers Agriculture: Soya, Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, etc. Logging: Low value exports, unsustainable practices. Development: Roads, energy power-lines, social services... Population: Urbanization + growth drives above. Perverse Incentives! Transition: De-Link Carbon & Growth Agriculture: Intensification + Productivity Gains Logging: Carbon-neutral sustainable logging Energy: Hydro-Electric Power, bio-fuels etc. Population: Urbanization + Intensification Funds Technology Policy 2

3 Forest Carbon Stocks In forest, carbon is present in different carbon pools Above-ground biomass Litter and soil Below-ground biomass Land Use Change Deforestation Degradation ~ Conversion Deforestation 3

4 Why Forests Matter Emission Sources 4

5 Global Costs One billion acres of tropical forest lost Achard et al., 2002 Science 297:999 Water Quantity & Quality 5

6 Extreme Weather Events Impacts on Coral Reefs 6

7 Local & Global Fisheries Species and Populations Vertebrates 56,586 spp. 21% threatened Invertebrates 1,190,200 spp. 58% threatened Plants 287,655 spp. 69% threatened Total 1,534,441 spp. 59% threatened 7

8 Ecosystem Services Disease Buffering Pest Control Pollination Infectious Diseases Cryptosporidiosis Lyme borreliosis Venezuelan equine encephalitis Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome West Nile fever Multidrug-resistant Salmonella E. coli O157 BSE nvcjd E. coli non-o157 Legionellosis Lassa fever Yellow fever West Nile fever Ebola haemhorragic Cholera fever s Rift Valley fever Cholera 0139 Malaria Typhoid Echinococcosi Influenza A (H5N1) Dengue haemhorragic Nipah virus fever Encephalitis Diphtheria O nyong-nyong fever Hendra virus infection Human monkeypox Cholera Legionellosis E. coli O157 8

9 Social Cost of Disease Rural Landscapes 9

10 Social Disruption Climate Change Temperature Change: Limit global average temperatures from rising 2 C above preindustrial levels. This probably requires: Stabilizing C0 2 concentrations at or below 450 p.p.m. Reducing industrialized country emissions 80% below 2000 levels by Developing Nations! 10

11 Developing Nations Forests & Carbon Land Use Change: The IPCC has concluded that during the 1990 s an estimated 10-25% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions came from LULUCF - degradation of tropical forests. Deforestation: At current annual rates, deforestation from Brazil and Indonesia alone would equal 80% of the emissions reductions gained by implementing the KP in its first commitment period. 11

12 The Kyoto Dilemma KP Exclusion: Kyoto excludes developing nations that reduce deforestation emissions. Kyoto unfairly discriminates against these nations in the world carbon markets. Market Access: Tropical rainforest nations deserve to be treated equally. If we reduce deforestation, fair compensation for reductions. A ton is a ton is a ton. Rainforest Coalition Cross Regional Partnership (30+ Nations) Africa South Asia Caribbean Central America Oceania South America 12

13 Rainforest Coalition Central America Asia / Pacific Caribbean CfRN Africa South America Interregional Policy Development & Consensus Forest Cover Change 13

14 Forest Cover Change Forest Cover Trends 100% Complementary & Flexible Tools Suriname Ghana Stabilization Forest Cover PNG Bolivia Indonesia Cameroon REDD India Bangladesh CDM-AR Costa Rica China 0% Time 14

15 Basket of Instruments REDD Enabling Fund Flexible Basket of Tools REDD (National) Reforest (Project) Market REDD A / R Non Stable COP-13 Market Marrakesh Compliant REDD Stabilization (Conservation & Displacement) Non Market Funds Blend Non Market Land Opportunity Cost Marginal Cost (Per Ha.) $2,000 Prevent Conversion to Soy Beans $500 $100 Clarify Land Tenure Enforce Protected Areas Prevent Conversion to Ranching Ha. Control Fires 15

16 Price vs. Objectives Price ETS National Fixed targets Minimal transactional risk Higher atmospheric value RED Voluntary Reductions National Scale Performance Risk minimized High atmospheric value CDM Higher Social value Positioned as cheap mechanism Organic or Fair Trade Carries performance risk buyer must replace credit Lower atmospheric value supplemental credit Atmospheric & Social Objectives Social Benefit Climate: Capture a significant source of carbon emissions currently outside frameworks. Rural Development: Significant new revenue streams to addresses poverty in rural areas with clear metrics to access effectiveness. National: Increases the flexibility of developing countries through a national approach. MDGs: Underpins MDG objectives related to environment, poverty, gender equality, health, etc. Biodiversity: Major biodiversity conservation benefits. Soils: Supports efforts against desertification and soil erosion. Water: Watershed protection and potable water supply. 16

17 Additional: Deeper Cuts KP1 (- 6%) AAU --- JI CDM 10% Additional KP2 (- 20%?) AAU --- JI CDM 10%? + RED 10%? New Total -30%? NOT CDM NEW CREDITS = DEEPER CUTS REDD Mechanism REDD Credits Fully fungible Measured against a National Reference Scenario (RS) Reference Scenario (RS) Finite past Reference Period (RP) A minimum of 5 years, preferably more Reference Emission Rate (RER) Calculated for reference period (RP) using: Activity Data (deforestation) Emissions factors (carbon emitted per unit area) Development Adjustment (DA) Factor Applied to RER Allows national circumstances to be considered Meets principle of common but differentiated responsibilities 17

18 Monitoring: IPCC G&GPG Constraints Geographically explicit data Archived satellite remote sensing data Estimate using Approach 3 of the IPCC Guidance & GPG. Advantages Data generally available Transparent Verifiable Cost effective Worldwide applicable Governance Performance Ex-Post Crediting (Commodities) National risk vs. Project Risk Seller (Nation) Carries Performance Liability (CDM = Buyer s Risk) Permanence National Measurement -- not focused on specific tree Trust Structures (principle & interest issues) Banking Mechanism (Banking ratio driven by annual variability) Reference Period Carry-Over (Banking or Loss of Incentive) Temporary Credits (Driven by pricing) 18

19 Governance Beneficiaries Who Reduced Emissions? Short Run vs. Long Run Actors Buyer Discretion Transparency Govt. vs. Stakeholders Market Structures Revenue Splits (Commodity Examples) Reporting UNFCCC Secretariat Periodic Reviews Independent Verification Evaluation & Verification Reference Scenario Reference Emissions Rate Reference Period Activity Data and Carbon Stock Estimates Development Factor REDD Activity Data Carbon Stock Estimates 19

20 Policy Conclusions Pre-Condition: Funding at scale: $5 - $25 B/y. Markets instruments most likely. If so, deepen Annex-B Targets. Any new supply must be met by new demand. Expand Existing Efforts: Build on Successes and lessons learned in both Annex and Non-Annex. Build Capacity. Pilot National Scale. Credits for Early Action: Facilitate funding flows. Pre-2012 emissions reductions can be credited post Sustainable Financial Resources: Traditional monies not sustained, not adequate. Countries need certainty to begin transformations. Milestones COP-11 / COP-MOP-1 (28 Nov 9 Dec 2005) Started 2-Year Process Workshop I (30 Aug - 1 Sept 2006) Focus: Science, Tech. & Methods COP-12 / COP-MOP-2 (6 17 Nov 2006) Workshop: Policy Approaches & Positive Incentives Submission of Views (23 Feb 2007) Workshop II (7-9 Mar. 2007) Focus: Policy Approaches and Positive Incentives SBSTA & SBI #26 (7-18 May 2007) Consider Process Forward Draft Recommendations COP-13 / COP-MOP-3 (3-14 December 2007) SBSTA #29 (May 2009) COP-15 (Dec 2009) 20