Positive Incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation

Transcription

1 Positive Incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation Thelma Krug National Institute for Space Research - INPE Interamerican Institute for Global Change Research - IAI thelma@dir.iai.int Joint Dialogue on Future Internatinal Actions to Address Global Climate Change Rio de Janeiro, January, 2007 General Comments Views from Brazil introduced UNFCCC Workshop in Rome (Positive( incentives to reduce deforestation emissions in developing countries: views from Brazil) Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention, in Nairobi Dialogue working paper 21 (2006) No formal submission of a methodological approach to address reducing emissions from deforestation 31 March 2006 February 2007

2 General Comments Proposal is not meant to develop a national target to prevent loss of forest carbon with incentives through voluntary contributions from developed countries. Presentation to clarify Objective Develop a new arrangement to provide positive financial incentives for developing countries that voluntarily reduce their greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation

3 Premises Voluntary arrangement in the context of the UNFCCC Does not generate future obligations Does not count towards emissions reductions commitments of Annex I countries Concept Positive financial incentives for the net reduction of emissions from deforestation in developing countries relative to a reference emission rate (calculated according to a pre-defined reference deforestation rate and an agreed average carbon stock)

4 Quantifying the Incentive 1. Definition of the reference carbon emission rate Average rate of deforestation in the country on a time period to be defined Based on assessment of previous deforestation rates Periodically updated Agreed average carbon stock per biome or vegetation type 2. Assessment of annual (or periodical) emissions from deforestation for comparison with the reference Based on a transparent, consistent and scientifically-based monitoring deforestation system Emissions are to be estimated using biome or vegetation specific carbon tonnes per unit area Eg.: Amazon 90 tonnes C/ha Quantifying the Incentive 3. If emissions from deforestation have decreased, the difference is converted into a financial incentive to be received (credit). 4. If emissions from deforestation have increased, the difference is converted into an amount to be subtracted (debit) from future financial incentives to be received. The amount of the incentive per carbon tonne is to be calculated based on an agreed amount to be periodically reviewed.

5 Quantifying the Incentive System Reference Deforestation Rate Actual Deforestation Rate Credit Deficit T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12 Reference rate Deforest. rate Credit/Deficit Balance Incentive Characteristics of the System Ex-post positive incentive Exclusively CO2 does not include other GHG gases, such as CH4 Relies upon: CO2 emission rate reference Transparent and reliable monitoring system

6 Establishing the Emission Reference Rate Annual Rate of Gross Deforestation in Legal Amazonia km2/year (a) (b) (b) (*) Year Mean area estimate Estimate Stdev Data used 18,681 3,997 Entire series ,641 4,530 Series from ,512 2,398 Same as above , moving average rates 11,130 Minimum value 29,059 Maximum value 16,162 Median

7 Mean area estimate: Estimate Stdev Data used 22,513 3,925 Entire series ,162 4,003 Based on 5 mov averages 18,165 Minimum value 27,364 Maximum value 19,683 Median 17,978 2, Biomass Estimates Source Estimate (t d.m.. ha -1 ) Houghton et al.. (2001) Chambers et al.. (2001) Houghton et al.. (2001) 269 Baker et al.. (2004) 282 Baker et al.. (2004) 294 Ometto et al.. (2005) 283

8 Drivers of Deforestation Dynamic Locally diverse Geographical concentration (Arc of Deforestation) Significant annual fluctuations Responsive to internal economy Responsive to market demand Responsive to the international economy Main Drivers of Deforestation Cattle ranching (70-80%) Agriculture (20%) Soybeans expansion Grilagem of public land Wood industry Infra-structure developments Agrarian reform Illegal logging

9 Drivers of Deforestation Rome Workshop No universal policy for controlling tropical deforestation. Find the right balance and the correct mix of factors most suitable for a particular region. Many factors that are among the causes of deforestation are also part of the solution (e.g., land-use policies, economic development, institutional arrangements, transportation infrastructure).

10 Drivers of Deforestation Rome Workshop Cluster of inter-related factors with direct or indirect, intended or unintended impact forests national demand for land policies to develop the forest frontier capital investments in logging and agricultural activities population movements the commodification of the economy development of urban markets infrastructure expansion Policy packages should always include: 1. Improving governance, fighting corruption 2. Decentralizing forest management with a concomitant increase in the local capacity to enforce law 3. Developing public participation in environmental planning 4. Designing creatively new institutional instruments

11 Difficulties Weak state control on forests: globalisation, economic priorities Difficult to attribute reduced deforestation to state policies: complex causal clusters, inter-annual variability, forest transition International leakage: international trade in forest and agricultural products Measurement uncertainties: consistency of time series, forest degradation & fragmentation Positive Incentives New and supplemental financial resources ODA approach Market based approaches Sectoral CDM approach Bilateral or multilateral trading agreements Payment for environmental services Credit for early action

12 Positive Incentives Annex C: National Approach Brazil efforts taken by developing countries to reduce emissions from their territory can only be characterized as voluntary and, therefore, cannot be linked or associated to goals, targets and timeframes. Optional Protocol/New arrangement Further analysis in relation to incentive structure More time and effort to implement Existing Initiatives

13 Costa Rica ESP Program Environmental Services Payment Program: a tool for forestry recovery and protection ESP: a financial mechanism created to recognize the environmental services provided by forests to the society. Economic compensation to land owners to guarantee the conservation and sustainable management of forest resources. Forestry Law 7575: Forests, forest plantations and other ecosystems offer services essential to the citizens and to economic activities, at the local, national and global levels. Mitigation of greenhouse effect gases and carbon fixation Protection of water resources for different uses Protection of biodiversity Landscape/scenic beauty Costa Rica ESP Program ESP: FIVE PILLARS Legal framework Institutional framework Financial framework Political Framework Transparency and accountability

14 10,000 km2 = 1,000,000 ha Assuming a 100 tc/ha Annual carbon emission avoidance of 100,000,000 Assuming a payment of US$ 50 ha -1 yr US$ 5,000,000,000 yr -1