Apocalypse. Politics?

Transcription

1 Changing Climate

2 Apocalypse or Politics?

3 MORE CROP FOR THE DROP A Global Search Drought Tolerant Soybeans via the USDA National Plant Germplasm System Thomas E. Carter, Jr. USDA-Agricultural Research Service Raleigh, NC Thomas.Carter@ars.usda.gov

4 New Crop Varieties that Use Agricultural Water More Efficiently Thomas E. Carter, Jr. USDA-Agricultural Research Service Raleigh, NC

5 DRY WEATHER is the GREATEST GLOBAL BARRIER to FOOD PRODUCTION

6 Plants need water, a lot of it. Even Weeds need water

7 Irrigated Non-Irrigated Comparison of irrigated and non-irrigated corn grown in Helena, AR.

8 A Law of Nature CO 2 H 2 0 Plants Must Lose Water to Grow CO 2 H 2 0

9 It takes about 500,000 gallons of water to grow an acre of crop.

10 This water tower holds about 300,000 gallons of water, Enough for 3/5 of an acre.

11 Bean Economics Only about 15% of soybeans are irrigated

12 70 Million Acres of Soybean in the USA About 115 Million water towers We are heavily dependent on mother nature!

13 U.S. Soybean Yield August Drought Dry August 40 YIELD 35.3 Yield (bushels per acre) YEAR

14 Future Rainfall - Intensified Swings This map illustrates the potential for future drought worldwide, based on current projections of future greenhouse gas emissions.. Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

15 Water Shortages in California

16 Population, Drought & Food Supply World population 2,500,000,000 6,100,000,000 9,200,000,000 Arable land per person 1.3 acres 0.7 ac 0.4 ac Year 1950 Year 2000 Year 2050 With limited arable land and a continuously growing world population, the available farmland per capita is expected to further decrease dramatically Source: United Nations

17 Land for agriculture in United States is decreasing (USDA Economic Research Service, 2011) Buy land. They ain t making any more of the stuff. Will Rogers

18 During the Green Revolution in the 1970 s World Food Stocks were 1 year Supply Now: 3 months Less room for mistakes- Or Bad Weather

19 The Big Question. How can we meet the challenge?

20 What Can We Do in Agriculture? Develop More Efficient Water Use Practices Develop Agricultural Crops That Use Water More Efficiently Simply Irrigating Crops is Not a long term Answer- it takes fossil fuel to pump water- And in many cases fossil water

21 How Do We Get More Desert Survival Does Crop for the Drop? NOT Feed the World- Or make Agriculture GM or Biotech profitable Approaches have NOT Worked. Why not move cactus genes into crops?

22 Let s Look at Existing Crop Variation in Other Countries in Dry Areas More Empirical than cactus- More likely to Work Approach based on a long history of success. But Never Applied to Drought

23 DOMESTICATION OF SOYBEAN ~1500 B.C. CHINA BEIJING

24 3000 Years of On Farm Breeding Adaptation of Soybean To local Conditions Around The Globe Continual Rise and Selection of Favorable Mutants

25 3000 Years of On Farm Breeding

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27 Gobi Desert

28 More than 20,000 Types of Soybean Developed by farmers - and Collected By USDA

29 ca Ca Early USDA Explorer P.H. Dorsett

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31 SANDHILLS Research Station, NC USDA & N.C. State University

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34 Slow Wilting Trait Fast wilting Slow wilting All Varieties are FAST Wilting -- Some worse than others

35 Discovered 10 Slow wilting types Spent 20 Years of R&D

36 Field Day in North Carolina Proof of Concept

37 SOYBEAN TEAM DROUGHT Soy Harvest 2004 U. of NEBRASKA U. of MINN. MIZZOU & USDA USDA & NCSU KANSAS STATE U. OF ARKANSAS Clemson STONEVILLE U. OF GEORGIA

38 Drought Gene DISCOVERIES (Arkansas, Georgia, USDA & others) TRAIT Exotic SOURCE CHROMOSOME Slow wilting PI X X X X X X X Slow wilting PI X X X Slow wilting Jackson x KS4895 X X X X Prolific rooting PI X X X X X Aquaporin PI x x Aquaporin Benning x x Drt yield PI X X X X X N FIXATION Ureide Jackson x KS4895 X X N FIXATION Shoot N Jackson x KS4895 X X Resistance to Mn def SC X X Salt tolerance S-100 X Ozone tolerance Fiskeby III Top SecretTop Secre Top Secret Top Secret Top SecreTop SecreTop Secret IDC Fiskeby III Top SecretTop Secre Top Secret Top Secret Top SecreTop SecreTop Secret X X

39 Soybean Team Drought An Example That Can be Repeated in other crops

40 Farmer Support United Soybean Board Private Interest

41 Mechanisms of Drought Tolerance Deeper roots Unusual Stomatal Response to Drying Air Sustained Nitrogen Fixation

42 How much water does it take?

43 Crop Water Productivity Seed Yield Corn and Soybean Need a lot of Water Corn ~4500 gallons per bushel Soybean ~7000 gallons Seasonal Crop Water Use (mm)

44 Agricultural Irrigation U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Draft. Chapter 3: Water Resources. Figure 3.6.

45 How can we make soy more stress tolerant? Opportunity (not apocalypse) for Public Funding - Public concern for agriculture & weather never so great as Now. We call this momentum Public Researchers have learned a lot & are Ready to Partner with private sector, thanks in part to USB Future Funding & ADVANCES will depend in large part on enthusiasm of stakeholders- YOU

46 Why haven t we made the soy crop stress tolerant already? Funding has always lagged for Public Research on weather stress. Not much to go on scientifically at First- Had to build a Knowledge Base. United Soy Board The main long term support of public research on weather stress- Critical factor over other crops.

47 Soybeans for a Changing Climate WHAT HAVE WE DONE IN THE PUBLIC Sector? WHERE DO WE GO?

48 Farmer Support United Soybean Board Private Interest

49 Thanks!

50 U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment Draft Chapter 18: Midwest. Figure 18.3.

51 Projected Agriculture in 2080 Due to Climate Change

52 World Grain Area Harvested per Person, Hectares Source: USDA, UN Source:

53 200 Illinois corn yield and water use Corn yield (bushels/acre) Yield year vs yield (kg/ha) year vs growing season precip tenths of mm Precipitation gallons of water per bushel of corn Year March-September rainfall (inches) rainfall data from NOAA / National Climatic Data Center yield data from Illinois Farm Reports (USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service)

54 Apocalypse Changing Climate or Politics?

55 Apocalypse or or Politics?

56 Maybe An Opportunity?

57 The Green Revolution of the 70s

58 Most Soybean is NOT Irrigated - Source: Vilsack and Clark (2008) Too expensive to run the pumps. Irrigated soybeans Irrigated soybeans Acres

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60 70 Million Acres of Soybean in the USA

61 Palmer Drought Index- An On-Line State of the Drought

62 112 Years of Drought in the America s Breadbasket Drought Index WET Dry YEAR

63 Major areas account for 75% of the total production annually. Major and minor areas account for 99% of the total production annually. In 2012, Drought Was Severe

64 Minnesota Slow wilting type